Monday, February 27, 2012

Why Obama Just Can't Win -- Where Catholics Live, The Electoral College, and Fourth Grade Math

Life is Funny; I was already planning on doing this post today, and this swing-state poll comes out right on time:

Swing states poll: Health care law hurts Obama in 2012

This dovetails nicely with one of the first thoughts I had upon hearing about the Obama Administration's assault on the Catholic Church: "Aren't Catholics Swing Voters in  Swing States?!?"

In short, they are; consider the following data:

(Author's note: I'm calculating a ten percent swing in Obama voting/non-voting Catholics in these examples, but I think it can go MUCH higher)

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 196,658
Total Catholic Population (2006): 666,213
10 % of Catholic Population: 66,621
Obama's Current Job Approval: 40.4%

That Means: In a state where Obama barely has a 40% rating, a ten percent Catholic swing will erase 1/3 of his 2008 margin of victory.

Florida (29 EV)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 204,577
Total Catholic Population (2006): 2,265,450 (Sidenote: And they're Cubans)
10% of Catholic Population: 226,545
Obama's Current Job Approval: 43.6%

That Means: A ten percent Catholic swing more than erases Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

Iowa (7 EV)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 140,732
Total Catholic Population (2006): 494,698
10% of Catholic Population: 49,470
Obama's Current Job Approval: 45.9%

That Means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 35% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

Michigan (16 EV)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 823,934
Total Catholic Population (2006):  2,064,103
10% of Catholic Population: 206,410
Obama's Current Job Approval: 48.1% (and I don't buy that one)

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases nearly 40% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

Nevada
(6 EV)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 119,896
Total Catholic Population (2006): 661,300
10% of Catholic Population: 66,130
Obama's Current Job Approval: 41.3%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 55% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

Obama 2008 Margin of Victory: 67,654
Total Catholic Population (2006): 314,471
10% of Catholic Population: 31,447
Obama's Current Job Approval: 38.7% (OUCH!!!)

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 46.4% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

New Mexico (5 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 120,938
Total Catholic Population (2006): 494,449
10% of Catholic Population: 49,445
Obama's Current Job Approval: 41.7%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 40.8% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

North Carolina (15 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 13,692 (Yeah, it's THAT small)
Total Catholic Population (2006): 336,738
10% of Catholic Population: 33,674
Obama's Current Job Approval: 43.7%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing more than erases Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory in the State where the Democrat Party is HOLDING THEIR 2012 CONVENTION!!!

Ohio (18 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 206,830
Total Catholic Population (2006): 2,128,619
10% of Catholic Population: 212,862
Obama's Current Job Approval: 42.1%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing more than erases Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory in the #1 swing state in every election.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 605,820
Total Catholic Population (2006): 3.614,694
10% of Catholic Population: 361,469
Obama's Current Job Approval: 45.0%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing in Rick Santorum's home state erases 59.6% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory.

Virginia (13 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 232,317
Total Catholic Population (2006): 620,399
10% of Catholic Population: 62,040
Obama's Current Job Approval: 44.5%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 26.7% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory in a state that's swung heavily Republican since Obama was immaculated.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory: 412,293
Total Catholic Population (2006): 1,605,955
10% of Catholic Population: 160,595
Obama's Current Job Approval: 47.4%

That means: A ten percent Catholic swing erases 38.9% of Obama's 2008 Margin of Victory in a state where Governor Scott Walker's reforms are working.

I could offer more comment, but these numbers speak for themselves.

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