#TXLEGE: The state ONLY taking over policing in Central Austin is POINTLESS

"O God, behold our shield,
And look upon the face of Your anointed."
Psalm 84:9

Umm...ok:

In his latest move in a political fight against Austin over police funding, Gov. Greg Abbott says he is considering a proposal to put the state in charge of policing a large area in the middle of the city, including downtown, the Texas Capitol and the University of Texas at Austin.

Abbott floated the idea during a campaign tele-town hall Wednesday while discussing his push to punish cities that "defund the police" during the upcoming legislative session, which begins in January. He has for months railed against the Austin City Council's August vote to slash its police department budget by one-third, primarily by shifting some responsibilities out of law enforcement oversight. He has also already proposed measures such as freezing property tax revenues for cities that cut police budgets.

"Something else that I'm thinking about doing, and that is because we have people coming from across the world and across the country into our capital city, as well as to the university, we can't make our fellow Texans be victims of crime ... because of the city of Austin leadership," Abbott said, "and so what I think we need to do is have a Capitol zone area that the state will be in charge of policing, and we can use city of Austin police officers for this."

Why?!?

If the Governor were to actually do this (a big if), the criminals will simply move outside the zone. If you're going to go this route, have the state takeover law enforcement over the whole city. That way you actually achieve your objective. Or, you could revoke the city's charter.

Bottom Line: This type of poll-driven half measure that won't accomplish anything, but will invite the full fury of a backlash; classic Abbott.

More incoherent, COVID-related, Gobldygook from Abbott

"So then, because you are lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will vomit you out of My mouth."
Revelation 3:16

We have questions:

Texas Governor @GregAbbott_TX says the first shipments of a COVID-19 vaccine should arrive in December.

Here is the initial plan and a list of people who will be first-in-line to receive the vaccine in Texas. pic.twitter.com/EZrPxmFZZJ

— Alex Caprariello (@alcaprari23) November 23, 2020

For the sake of discussion, we're going to assume those first three categories are fine. We've seen some questions raised on social media about how those terms are defined. Certainly, that's relevant. But, in terms of a macro-perspective, those populations are certainly where you should start distribution.

But, as far as those other categories are concerned, off the top of our head:

• Who's going to determine "health inequities" and isn't that a vague catch-all phrase that can mean anything to anyone?!?

• Why should we believe Abbott will pursue "data driven allocations" when there's considerable evidence he doesn't understand his own data?!?

• Why is "geographic diversity" a thing in the first place?!?  There's significant evidence that COVID spreads farther and faster in urban areas.  Shouldn't they get priority...especially if we're doing "data driven allocations?!?"

• At this point, re: COVID, the idea that Abbott's will be anything remotely resembling "transparent" is laughable.
• Note: See here for starters.

Bottom Line: None of the details from today's announcement make any sense...but that's also nothing new.

#TXLEGE: Abbott's Campaign Spending suggests GOP in good shape in Texas house

"and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
Matthew 16:3

Interesting:

I've got @GregAbbott_TX's campaign spending $1.8M across 20 battleground state House races on the latest TEC filings (Sept. 25-Oct. 24). The candidate breakdown: pic.twitter.com/wzcaXn7w7t

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 28, 2020

Thoughts:

• It's fascinating that he's spending more on two central Texas districts currently held by Democrats than anywhere else.  Since he's Greg Abbott, he must obviously have polling data that suggests this is a good investment.  Think our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding policy had anything to do with this?!?

• Steve Allison won in 2018 by close to ten points, it's hard to imagine him being in real trouble.

• Ditto Craig Goldman...although we're less confident about that one based on his actions.

• That being said, Abbott seems to have completely written off Lacey Hull and Morgan Meyer.

• The only incumbent on this list who seems any realistic shot at losing is Jeff Leach, but even that one doesn't seem like a done deal.
• Note: If Leach actually wins, it likely means R's gain seats in the chamber.

• We'll see what happens with Matt Shaheen, but we'd be surprised if any of the seats below him on this list flip.

• All of which is to suggest there will be between 80 and 86 R's in the Texas house next session.
• Note: Absent our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding actions, that range is probably 78 to 84.

Remember: Abbott polls EVERYTHING.

Bottom Line: While there might be some tinkering around the edges, something roughly resembling the status quo seems likely to prevail.

Screwy results in DMN/UT-Tyler poll

"Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits, whether they are of God; because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1

[Note: While we were working on this blog post, the Hobby School at U of H released a poll that's likely much closer to reality.  Unfortunately, they didn't poll on Abbott or "issues."  So it makes an apples to apples comparison difficult.  Nevertheless, the U of H poll is consistent with the Texas Tribune poll from a couple weeks ago.]

There's been a poll making the rounds that alleges Biden is up by three statewide. It's being promoted by the ususal suspects for the obvious reasons. But consider some of the other results from the same poll.

Abbott overall job approval:

In other words, they're claiming Abbott has a 20 point net positive rating.  Maybe a year ago.  Not today.

Abbott COVID job approval:

Abbott at 52% approval on COVID is some LOL territory.

Police defunding in various idioms:

That's consistent with of private polling we've seen on the City of Austin on those two issues...but we've got to imagine those policies are less popular statewise.

Bottom Line: Oceanfront property. Arizona. Etc.

Revising and Extending Our Remarks on King Abbott's latest "proclamation"

"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

We may have jumped the gun a bit yesterday, PushJunction explains:

GREG ABBOTT did a thing yesterday that's being misrepresented in the media. Following the July run-off election, Abbott issued a proclamation expanding early voting for the November election.

In addition to expanding the early voting period, Abbott allowed for mail-in ballots to be returned in person on more than one day as permitted by law. Terrible negotiating with himself while Democrats sued and abused almost every election law on the books.

This isn’t the first time Abbott’s been a punching bag on the topic of election integrity.

During the legislative session, he threw a massive bone to Democrats by agreeing to a sweetheart settlement, stopping list maintenance activities kicked off by his then-Secretary of State.

The apparent deal, settlement for the late-session confirmation of a loyal employee, was spiked by Democrats.

The same thing happened here. Abbott gave election administrators an inch by allowing mail ballots to be turned in on more than one day, and lead by Chris Hollins and Dana DeBeauvoir, they took a mile by ballooning the number of drop sites.

Abbott returned a modicum of order yesterday. Now he needs to stop other illegal election activities to prevent them from being used in the future.

To the degree to which we drew an incorrect conclusion about the legality of this move, we apologize.

However, a couple points:

• Given the way Abbott has acted in recent months, it's hard to avoid drawing any other conclusion.  After he's accused of behaving in a lawless manner, it's easy to assume the worst.  Abbott doesn't exactly have a lot of benefit of the doubt left on this topic.

• That being said, why permit the single drop off location.  If Abbott is concluding, apparently correctly, that state law doesn't give county election administrators this authority...why is he allowing them to do it at all?!?  The policy is incoherent.

Bottom Line:  We suppose yesterday's announcement is a move in the right direction, but for the counternarrative to take hold so easily illustrates Abbott's squandered credibility.

King Abbott issues "Proclamation""

"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

Wait, what?!?

Inbox: @GovAbbott issues proclamation on ballot security #txlege pic.twitter.com/8jCBrQE50B

— Brandon Waltens (@bwaltens) October 1, 2020

A few points:

1. Abbott doesn't have legal authority (not that that's ever stopped him).  Laws related to the conduct of elections require an act of the legislature to change.  Abbott's already getting sued over this subject.  He's probably going to get sued again.
   
   
2. The underlying policy is incoherent.  If these drop off centers are bad, they should be completely eliminated.  If they aren't, there's nothing wrong with having a whole bunch of them.
   
   
3. Dude's been being criticized for acting like a king for months, and responds by...issuing a "proclamation."

Bottom Line:  Obviously, Abbott's been doing this for months, but add another example to the list.

Crenshaw's another Abbott

"For false christs and false prophets will rise and show great signs and wonders to deceive, if possible, even the elect."
Matthew 24:24

Soo...this happened:



We're not gonna lie.  The first time through, Crenshaw's video has a certain...emotional appeal.   The more we think about it, however, the more its utter, total, and complete lack of substance stands out.  Textbook political psuedo-event.

Which got us thinking.

Can you name another prominent Texas politician who:

• Has a compelling life story at least the first 7 zillion times you hear it?!?

• Is reasonably well spoken?!?

• Prefers psuedo-events to substance?!?
  
  *and*

• Rarely does anything (at least anything good)?!?

Obviously, the title of this blog post gives that answer away.

Greg Abbott spent years cultivating an image.  In that effort, he was successful for a long time.  Eventually, however, Greg Abbott actually had to do his actual job in a public setting.  When that happened, Abbott's image melted away.

Dan Crenshaw today is in the same place Greg Abbott was five or six years ago.

He's going to follow the same trajectory.

It's a matter of time.  We don't know how much.  But, eventually....

We just hope he doesn't get promoted too far too quickly before then.

Bottom Line: We don't care which metaphor you choose.  Hat and cattle works.  Likewise, sizzle and steak.  But the similarities are obvious.

#TXLEGE: Abbott's latest "anti-Riot" proposal has...quite the catch

"And when they say to you, 'Seek those who are mediums and wizards, who whisper and mutter,' should not a people seek their God? Should they seek the dead on behalf of the living?"
Isaiah 8:19

Sounds great:

Gov. Greg Abbott proposed legislation Thursday that, if approved, could make certain actions during protests a felony, including destroying property and aiding or abetting an organization that takes part in a riot.

Abbott made the proposals after a volatile summer in many cities across the country and in Texas which led to major demonstrations and destruction of businesses, including in Downtown Dallas, following the death of George Floyd.

Except:

Is this is? Unlike @RonDeSantisFL’s proposal, every one of these items requires a DA willing to enforce them and every big city DA is a Democrat who will not do so. #txlege https://t.co/kWqOPrxjhB

— Matt Rinaldi (@MattRinaldiTX) September 24, 2020

The problem isn’t a lack of criminal penalties for rioting. It’s that (1) Democrat DA’s refuse to enforce the laws against rioters & (2) protect rioters by prosecuting civilians defending themselves. Nothing in @GregAbbott_TX’s proposals today addresses the core issues. #txlege

— Matt Rinaldi (@MattRinaldiTX) September 24, 2020

Allow civil suits against elected officials who refuse to enforce these laws and others protecting person or property. Strengthen protections against those exercising their right of self-defense against rioters a and mobs blocking roadways. #txlege

— Matt Rinaldi (@MattRinaldiTX) September 24, 2020

Bottom Line: When local DA's aren't enforcing laws that are already on the books, new laws for them to not enforce doesn't accomplish anything.

Greg Abbott's COVID Response in four tweets

"So then, because you are lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will vomit you out of My mouth."
Revelation 3:16

Happy Saturday, we'll keep this brief:

Only @GregAbbott_TX could make a bunch of conservative Christian Texans bar proponents. #txlege

— Luke Macias (@lukemaciastx) September 18, 2020

To which we will add: This is a VERY real sentiment at this author's Baptist Church.

[Note: Speaking of Baptists, language warning on this next series.]

COVID rules are divisive, but can *all y'all* agree that requiring a mask when you enter a restaurant, but then being okay with it being off the rest of the time MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE?

— Evil MoPac (@EvilMopacATX) September 18, 2020

Real talk, I want restaurants to survive this shit

But rules like this erode everyone's confidence in COVID protocols, reducing them to mere formalities unlinked to science

— Evil MoPac (@EvilMopacATX) September 18, 2020

This is similar to a loophole that lets bars be open as "restaurants" if they have a bowl of peanuts available to munch on*

*this is hyperbole, spare me the shitty DM

— Evil MoPac (@EvilMopacATX) September 18, 2020

Paul Foster never stopped giving Abbott money

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

We were looking at Governor Abbott's recent campaign finance data this morning.  To be honest, we were looking for something else that might or might not be there.  Further investigation required.

However, in perusing Governor Abbbott's top donors for this cycle, we saw something that's very interesting if you know the history:

1
For those who don't know of him, Paul Foster is a former chairman of the UT Board of Regents. What makes this interesting, however, is that Greg Abbott forced Foster out as Chairman in 2017. At the time, we suspected it was due to steps Foster had been taking to undermine Abbott's legislative agenda.

Apparently, however, Abbott only holds a grudge until it's time to cash a check.

According to state records, Paul Foster has made the following donations to Greg Abbott since his board ouster:

• 6/30/18 -- $250k to "Texans for Greg Abbott."

• 6/29/19 -- $100k to "Texans for Greg Abbott."

• 8/14/19 -- $41,861 to "Texans for Greg Abbott" for "plane expenses."
  
  
• Note: Must be nice.

• 6/30/20 -- $250k to "Texans for Greg Abbott."

Bottom Line: None of this is really surprising, but it's still a highly revealing window into Abbottworld.

Abbott's "Back the Blue" Initiative...can't hurt

"To everything there is a season,
A time for every purpose under heaven:"
Ecclesiastes 3:1

UPDATE: Apparently, the Democrats response is this.  LOL.  Basic pattern over the last year holds.
-------

Sure, why not:

Gov. Greg Abbott made his latest political move to fight efforts to cut police funding Wednesday, calling on all Texas candidates in the November election to sign a pledge “backing the blue.”

“Some cities in Texas want to defund and dismantle police departments in our state,” the Republican governor said in a YouTube video promoting his pledge. “This reckless action invites crime into our communities and threatens the safety of all Texans including our law enforcement officers and their families.”

This summer, as unrest and sometimes violent protests against police brutality and racial injustice rocked Texas and the nation, a revived movement for social justice called for the community and policymakers to rethink the role of police. Alongside proposed reforms to policing practices and accountability — like requiring officers to intervene in other officers’ bad actions — some have also sought to shift local funding away from policing and direct the funds toward other social services.

We're not really doing cartwheels over this.  Buuut...we can see a modest amount of good coming from it.   One and a half cheers.

PushJunction says it well:

This is a red meat issue that obviously polls well, or Abbott would not be pursuing it less than 54 days from the general election.

Of course it's political.  But so what?!?   Falling crime rates are the biggest public policy success of the past 25 years.   If the Democrats want to hand Abbott this opportunity, you can't blame him for taking it.

Bottom Line: Keep your expectations low, but there's no reason to not give it a shot.

#TXLEGE: Luther starts running, Abbott starts caving

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption,
but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Shot:

Chaser:

I said last month that Texas wouldn’t have anymore lockdowns—despite demands from mayors & county judges insisting on lockdowns.

Since my last orders in July, Covid numbers have declined—most importantly hospitalizations.

I hope to provide updates next week about next steps. https://t.co/EmmankcMMO

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) September 1, 2020

These two events are linked.

Bottom Line: It's amazing how quickly policy starts changing when someone emerges who's better at your core political strategy than you are.

#TXLEGE: Luther neutralizes Abbott's entire political playbook

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

This happened on Saturday:

Due to formatting issues [Note to FoxNews.com: Y'all might want to do something about those pop-ups], we can't embed the video.  You can click through the link above.  That being said, most of what Luther says in the interview is obvious.

What's less obvious, however, is more noteworthy: The outlet where Luther gives said interview.

At this point, it seems that Shelley Luther is good copy for Fox News.  She probably generates ratings.   They certainly seem to like putting her on the air.

That is bad news for Greg Abbott.

For several years, Greg Abbott's political strategy has been obvious.  Make bombastic statements on Fox News (on issues where his office has no jurisdiction) while governing like the Karl Rove recruit he's always been.   It's generally tended to work for him, although some cracks have emerged in recent months.

Shelley Luther, however, out Fox News's Abbott.  In so doing, she illuminates how Abbott actually GOVERNS as opposed to the image Abbott wants to project.  Abbott don't like that.

Bottom Line: It's an open question how long this dynamic continues, but it ain't gonna be plesant for any incumbent as long as it does.

#TXLEGE, #atxcouncil: Presler's Oversimplification

"If a ruler pays attention to lies,
All his servants become wicked."
Proverbs 29:12

National activist Scott Presler was in town yesterday and made an observation that was...not incorrect:

I’ve traveled the country & Austin has one of the biggest homeless populations I’ve seen. @MayorAdler, why are you abandoning your constituents?

If you live in Austin, and are unhappy with how things are going, then ditch the democrats & switch to Republican. pic.twitter.com/QO9omhAg0l

— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) August 27, 2020

For the record: We are currently typing this blog post about half a mile from where this video was filmed. We can attest to its observational accuracy. Unfortunately, experience has taught us that Preseler's proposed solution isn't good enough.

1) I live a half mile from here and walk by 2-3 times per week.

2) Wish solution were as simple as @ScottPresler suggests. Unfortunately, @GregAbbott_TX and @TexasGOP only want to fundraise and tweet. Shame, because six hour #txlege special session could fix.

cc: #atxcouncil https://t.co/lrkjMIYWoo

— cahnman (@cahnman) August 27, 2020

Presler's point might be valid in places like Seattle where the D's control both the local and the state gov. That's not the case here. Austin, whatever else you want to say about it, is still part of TEXAS. TEXAS as in the GOP controls everything.

Nevertheless, scenes like the one Scott Presler detailed yesterday persist.

The truth, of course, is that the Texas GOP could address this issue in six hours if they had the political will. They don't. See here, and here, and here, and here, and here, and here, and here. Why address this issue when it's such a good fundraiser?!?

Bottom Line:  While Scott Presler's observation about our municipal government is correct, he's unfortunately overlooking that our state government is likewise failing to use the jurisdiction it already possesses.

#TXLEGE: The Leticia van de Putte Precedent on Special Election timing/vacancies

"Put them in fear, O Lord,
That the nations may know themselves to be but men. Selah"
Psalm 9:20

A couple days ago, we raised the question about the legality of Governor Abbott's special election order in SD-30.

Last night, it was brought to our attention that this isn't the first time in recent memory this situation has occurred.

To wit:

To ensure Democrats don't have one fewer Senate member when the legislative session begins on Jan. 13, [Former Senator Leticia] Van de Putte intends to only vacate her seat [for an ultimately unsuccessful run for San Antonio mayor] once the special election's winner is sworn in.

Whatever you want to say about the propriety or wisdom of holding a special election before the seat is technically "vacant," it's happened before.

Of course, none of that negates anything we've previously said about the nakedly political nature of Abbbot's announcement. But just because something's nakedly political doesn't make it illegal. Ballot box, not courts.

Bottom Line: This topic might very well be one at which the lege should take a look. The status quo might or might not be good. At a minimum, however, Abbott's sunday announcemnt is consistent with how the underlying statues have been understaood in recent years.

#TXLEGE: Is Abbott's Special Election Gambit Even Legal?!? (not that he cares)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

We said our piece about the SD-30 special election yesterday.  We'll have more to say in the coming days.  It's the most interesting thing that has happened in ages.

Before we get too far on this journey, however, Michael Quinn Sullivan raises a really good point:

So @FallonForTexas isn’t resigning from #TxLege office until Jan 2021... But @GregAbbott_TX has decided he has the power to declare a special election despite the seat not being empty. This seems to imply @GovAbbott could call a special election for any seat, at any time? Wow...

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

This a complete about-face for @GregAbbott_TX, who previously said he would not call special elections until seats were actually vacant. You know... because they aren’t vacant.

And FWIW, there is ZERO chance #TxLege SD30 would flip to the Democrats.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

This is @GovAbbott helping #Rep. @DrewSpringer get a free pass running for SD30, since he’s on the ballot for state rep.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

As it turns out, @GregAbbott_TX is using the CORONAVIRUS as an excuse for the rapid-fire #TxLege SD30 special election. Why? He has refused to call a special session of the Legislature, opting instead to rule as our semi-benevolent monarch unbound by law.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

We don't know what the letter of the Texas election code says. That's a lawyer question. At a minimum, however, calling a special election for a seat that's not yet vacant seems to violate the spirit of the law.

Not that Greg Abbott cares about that.

Bottom Line: This is simply the latest in the long line of abuses and usurpations, but it's nevertheless a good question.

#TXLEGE: Shelley Luther is Abbott's worst nightmare

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

That was quick:

Inbox: @GovAbbott sets special election date for #SD30 on 9/29 #txlege pic.twitter.com/pBQ8UKx4Ew

— Brandon Waltens (@bwaltens) August 23, 2020

To understand the significance of Dave Carney's Abbott's order, you need to interpret it in the context of Shelley Luther's announcement this past weekend:

Backing the Blue in Denton County pic.twitter.com/r7wfgPIKeu

— Shelley Luther (@ShelleyLuther) August 22, 2020

There is a LOT to unpack here. We'll have to go through it quickly. But the TL,DR version is that Greg Abbott just exposed the weakness of his hand.

[Note: Drew Springer is also running (as we predicted).  Plenty on him at the appropriate time.  For now, however, just know that Springer's who Dave Carney Abbott wants in this seat.]

-------

The Game Abbott thinks he's playing:

On paper, and under 'normal' circumstances, a quick election favors the professional politician.   They have a campaign team.   They don't have to build name id.   Lobbyists will give them money.

In this case, Drew Springer is the professional politician who Dave Carney's Greg Abbott's trying to help.

Like it or not, under 'normal' circumstances, there's a certain logic to that thinking.

Unfortunately for Dave Carney Greg Abbott and Drew Springer, we're not in normal circumstances.

-------

Abbott's blunder:

Dave Carney's Abbott's logic has two major flaws:

• Abbott's not particularly popular at the moment.

• Shelley Luther probably has just as much, if not more, name ID than Drew Springer.

Thus, for as much as Dave Carney Abbott thinks he's helping Springer, the quick turnaround probably benefits Shelley Luther.

If you're Dave Carney Greg Abbott, and you're being smart, you want COVID (and the ensuing restrictions) as far in the rear view mirrior as possible by the time this election is held. If we're coming out of the season, it's entirely conceivable that you could frame this election as being about the future rather than the past. By holding the election next month, however, we remain in the current season and what could have been the past remains the present.

-------

Shelley Luther:

We've seen a number of knowledgeable people bring up the fact that she's new. Thus, we don't know much about her. That's a valid point.

However, we do know a few things:

• She's personable.

• She's well spoken.

• She's NORMAL.

• All of which is to say, that it looks like she'd be a really good candidate.

• Greg Abbott hates her guts.

• In terms of her performance in the event she's elected, who knows?!?  But those who've worked with her up to this point seem to think highly of her.  Considering that her only declared opponent is known to be bad, we'll take the unknown.

If there's someone with a longer, and more verifiable, conservative record...they have a week to step up.

Unless that happens, however, a one-on-one between Shelley Luther and Drew Springer is a VERY easy call.

-------

Drew Springer:

Moron that guy at the appropriate time, but you can teach yourself about his record here.

Also, item 5 here tells you what you need to know about Springer's vindictive streak (see also here).

Finally, this one was recent and obnoxious.

-------

Then there's this:

LOL:

I served on W&M 2 sessions with Chairman @JimMurphy133 and its an honor to have his endorsement for #SD30. #txlege pic.twitter.com/LH6dB15eyS

— Drew Springer (@DrewSpringer) August 24, 2020

Jim Murphy, for those who are new, is this guy.

-------

Bottom Line: This could be a lot of fun.

#TXLEGE: Abbott basically revives one of our old proposals (with a tweak)

"So he shepherded them according to the integrity of his heart,
And guided them by the skillfulness of his hands."
Psalm 78:72

Interesting:

The Big 3 proposal on police funding, per @GovAbbott: "Any city that defunds police departments will have its property tax revenue frozen at the current level. They will never be able to increase property tax revenue again if they defund police." #txlege

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) August 18, 2020

We're not necessarily for or against this proposal.  It has a lot of moving parts.  Charles Blain has good questions about practicality.  This is definitely one of those times where you're going to have to read the bill.

However, there's plenty of time for that.

In the meantime, we can't help thinking that someone once made a substantively similar proposal on a slightly different topic.

Who, pray tell, could that have been?!?

[T]here's another, much simpler, way to hold local governments' feet to the fire.

Later this session, the legislature will discuss restructuring the property tax system. The biggest policy change will likely be alterations in the "rollback" rate. "Rollback" rate refers to the point past which cities and counties have to seek voter approval to raise property taxes.

Imagine the following amendment on the property tax bill: "Any political subdivision that denies ICE detainers shall have their rollback rate set to zero."

In other words, all of their spending would be on the table...and it wouldn't require a drawn out court fight.

Swap in "defunding the police" for "ICE detainers," and Abbott is basically making our proposal from 2017.

Again, there are some rather significant practical challenges. So don't take this as an endorsement until we see specific legislative language. However, the instinct to hit intrangisent local governments on the property tax front is a commendable one.

And not just on this particular issue.

Bottom Line: Sincerest form of flattery, etc.

#TXLEGE: News and notes from Bryan Slaton

"Therefore we also, since we are surrounded by so great a cloud of witnesses, let us lay aside every weight, and the sin which so easily ensnares us, and let us run with endurance the race that is set before us,"
Hebrews 12:1

There been a decent amount of keyboard strokes spilled over Bryan Slaton's recent interview over his discussion of Greg Abbott's negative coattails. That's fine. It's certainly an important topic. And we largely agree with the conclusions.

That being said, there's a lot more there that's worthy of consideration.



Highlights:

• Running the third time is VERY rare.

• Incumbents tend to have accumulated loyalty.

• Decided to run for the third time after the Bonnen/Chris McNutt incident.
• The Bonnen/Sullivan recording confirmed it.

• Dan Flynn was apparently, quite literally, spitting mad in defense of Bonnen.

• Over the course of multiple campaigns, Slaton got know his community MUCH better.

• By the third run, he'd built relationships in the community that hadn't exists five years earlier.

• "The things that helped me most were out of my control."
• Third candidate.
• Delayed runoff due to COVID.
• Abbott's self-immolation.

• Appraisals should come out before the primary.

• Re: next session -- Need a speaker who's "a leader" and "fair."
• "Let the vote happen."
• "Don't try to manipulate everything."

#TXLEGE: Larson's ALWAYS been about Disempowering Citizens

"and with all unrighteous deception among those who perish, because they did not receive the love of the truth, that they might be saved."
2 Thessalonians 2:10

Over the weekend, Lyle Larson published an op-ed calling for an end to the two party system. There's already been a lot of keyboard strokes spilled over the topic.  PushJunction says it well:

LYLE LARSON, ostensibly a Republican, over the weekend suggested Texas should move away from a two-party system. The maneuver earned him some flack from members of his party, including Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock).

While major parties may begin to fracture organically, Larson seeding the ground is an intriguing development since, correctly viewed, he’s a Straus puppet.

Moderates/liberal members of the GOP have been systematically undermining the Republican party base for years. The establishment flourishes when there are fewer distinctions and more parity.

In terms of analysis, we don't have a lot to add.

However, some history:

•  2013 -- Larson pushes term limits for the governor...but not the legislature.
  
  
• This would have had the structural effect of empowering committee chairs (which, at the time, were appointed by Joe Straus).
  

•  2017 -- Larson tries to move primaries to January.
  

•  2017 -- Larson tries to unconstitutionally usurp Governor's appointment power.
  
  
• Note: This proposal **might** have merit as a standalone measure.  Especially after Abbott's "reopening Texas committee" debacle.  But, as the rest of this blog post makes clear, Larson's measure wasn't a standalone measure.
  
  
• Note II: Whatever the merits of the proposal, it would require a constitutional amendment.
  

• Earlier in 2020 -- Larson tries to resurrect January primaries.

Bottom Line: None of this is surprising considering who's speaking.