O'Rourke Regressing to Mean Faster than the Boston Red Sox

"Therefore, leaving the discussion of the elementary principles of Christ, let us go on to perfection, not laying again the foundation of repentance from dead works and of faith toward God,"
Hebrews 6:1

DMN yesterday:

AUSTIN — Beto O’Rourke wants to do everything he can to help Democrats win the Texas House this November — even if that means ​staying off the campaign trail and sending his volunteers to work for another candidate without him.

Whether the former El Paso congressman and presidential candidate’s help is a liability is a question after ​the Houston-area Democratic state House candidate he campaigned for in a special election last month was routed by a Republican.

After the election, the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee​ ​advised its candidates​ in an email​ not to speak to an Associated Press reporter asking whether they would accept O’Rourke’s help with their campaigns.

“Our recommendation is to provide no comment,” Justin Perez, the group’s political director, told candidates in an email obtained by The Dallas Morning News.

O’Rourke said Thursday: "If ​my presence is unhelpful, I’ll stay as far away as I can. I have no pride in this. My only goal is to help secure a Democratic majority in the statehouse. My only goal is to stop Trump and Trumpism in what I think is the most important year in the history of this country and to do my part.”

O’Rourke’s statement may tamp down concerns about how his political views might play in more traditionally conservative Texas districts where Democrats are fielding strong candidates. His veer to the left during his presidential run in 2019 — especially his support of a mandatory gun buyback program — would create difficulties for campaigns trying to sway independent and moderate Republican voters.

Democrats hoped​ that the special election in Fort Bend County​ would be their first opportunity to make a dent in their nine-seat deficit in the House, but Republicans exploited O’Rourke’s work as a surrogate for the Democratic candidate, Eliz Markowitz, tying her to his record on guns and on revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that oppose same-sex marriage.

The Republican, Gary Gates, won that district by 16 percentage points — double the previous GOP margin of victory in the district — leaving Democrats to rethink their use of O’Rourke as a surrogate in future races.

 (h/t PushJunction)

The whole thing is worth a read.  The DMN talks to some experts and profiles some races.  As the sample size gets bigger, 2018 looks like much more of a fluke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke is the political equivalent to the Boston Red Sox during the Alex Cora era.

(Except that the Red Sox won something.)

As time has passed, however, we know the next few chapters in the Boston Red Sox saga.  They haven't been pretty.  The exact same thing is happening to Bobby Francis O'Rourke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke was never that good.  The only reason the U.S. Senate race was close in 2018 was because Ted Cruz's campaign blew chunks.  O'Rourke just showed up, looked pretty, and kept it vague.

That playbook was always destined to have a limited shelf life.

That limited shelf life has now expired.

Bottom Line:  It should surprise nobody to see long-term historical averages reassert themselves.