#TXLEGE: Yikes for Tinderholt

"Is anyone among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the church, and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord."
James 5:14

That's not good:

State Rep. Tony Tinderholt was hospitalized last week after testing positive for the novel coronavirus, the lawmaker confirmed Friday to The Texas Tribune, marking the first known case involving a member of the Texas Legislature.

"I truly thought last Friday was gonna be my last," Tinderholt, an Arlington Republican, said in a text message to the Tribune. Tinderholt said his wife and two of his children also tested positive for the virus, though their symptoms were less severe.

Tinderholt said he is recovering after receiving medical treatment from a North Texas doctor. He and his family wore masks every time they went out in public because they felt it was the right thing to do, he said.

....

While Tinderholt acknowledged the virus is a "serious illness," he reiterated Friday his position that Abbott shutting down parts of the economy is wrong.

"Closing the entire economy and halting business as well as illegally taking people's freedoms are absolutely the wrong things to do to Texas, Texans and our nation," Tinderholt said.

Tinderholt said his recovery was largely thanks to state Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, who referred him to Dr. Brian Procter of McKinney Family Medicine. Procter, Tinderholt said, told him that out of the few hundred patients he has seen so far for the coronavirus, the lawmaker was among "the worst five he had handled." Tinderholt said he was considered at risk for the virus due to his titanium aortic heart valve.

Confession: We were today years old when we learned Tony Tinderholt had a titanium valve in his heart.

Bottom Line: Get well soon Tony.

#atxcouncil: Flannigan's proposal would beget bureaucratic turf wars/"information siloing"

"Every prudent man acts with knowledge,
But a fool lays open his folly."

Proverbs 13:16

Since Jimmy Flannigan made his "Defund APD" proposal the other day, there's been a lot of ink spilled over his call to physically demolish APD headquarters.  That's fine.  It's certainly newsworthy.
In fairness to Jimmy Flannigan, this website has been calling for moving governmental offices out of the downtown area for at least five years.  Technically, this could fit under that rubric.  If this proposal were being made by someone trustworthy, it **MIGHT** be worth considering.

Unfortunately, this proposal is being made by Jimmy Flannigan.

But there's a lot more to Flannigan's proposal than the physical location of APD's offices.

Specifically, Flannigan wants to split the current police departments in five component parts:

*** Department of Emergency Communications & Technology 
- Civilian Director of Emergency Communications 
- Budget of approx. $65mil (incl. support & transfers)
- Responsible for 9-1-1/CTECC, regional intelligence, records management, forensics, and emergency-specific technology

*** Department of Patrol
- Sworn Director of Patrol designated by the city manager and approved by the city council (according to state law). This department head could be designated as one of the 5 commanders that make up a geographically broad “Commander’s Council” to help democratize patrol leadership, ensure more diverse voices are making state-law-required decisions, and ensure a ready list of alternative department heads if necessary.
- Budget of approx. $197mil (incl. support & transfers)
- Responsible for DTAC & 4 Regions of patrol, tactical, and district reps 

*** Department of Investigations 
- Sworn Director of Investigations designated by the city manager and approved by the city council (according to state law).  
- Budget of approx. $95mil (incl. support & transfers)
- Responsible for detectives, investigations, and organized crime units

*** Department of Traffic Safety 
- Sworn Director of Traffic Safety designated by the city manager and approved by the city council (according to state law).  
- Budget of approx. $25mil (incl. support & transfers)
- Works in partnership with the Austin Transportation Department and should have mobility-focused civilian executive management in the Manager’s office

*** Department of Professional Standards
- Sworn Director of Professional Standards designated by the city manager and approved by the city council (according to state law).
- Budget of approx. $25mil (incl. support & transfers)
- Covers Internal Affairs, Recruiting, and Training. Future cadet class decisions would impact this part of the budget and would help separate those dollars from being reallocated without Council authority.

It doesn't take a genius to see how this unfolds: The new departments spend more time fighting each other than fighting crime. Political Fiefdoms develop. The five department heads game the new system so that nothing is ever 'their' fault. Accountability disappears.

On the bright side, creating five new municipal departments could create five new cottage industries for lobbyists.

So there's that.

Here's what's really crazy:

An information silo is an information management system that is unable to freely communicate with other information management systems. Communication within an information silo is always vertical, making it difficult or impossible for the system to work with unrelated systems.

In the event, God forbid, that Flannigan's proposal were to become reality...information siloing is pretty much guaranteed.

Nature of the beast.

That's before you account for the fact that this has to go through the rest of council.

Yikes.

Bottom Line: This is all completely predictable.

Lying Liar Ross Bjork LIES about Texas and Rivalry Restoration

"Lying lips are an abomination to the Lord,

But those who deal truthfully are His delight."
Proverbs 12:22

Soo...this happened:

Howdy Josh! Sorry my friend, ain’t going to happen this year nor is this being discussed anywhere at A&M. I’ve been here over a year & no one from there has asked me to play them. Let’s get this season going & keep moving forward 👊👍

— Ross Bjork (@RossBjorkAD) July 29, 2020

[Note: For those of you who aren't aware, Ross Bjork is the Aggy athletic director.]

Which begged the obvious response:

Considering that I was in the room when @_delconte threw down and very publicly challenged you at last year's @TexasTribune fest...you're a liar. https://t.co/cbGZhCnQRJ

— cahnman (@cahnman) July 29, 2020

Furthermore:

This isn't difficult:https://t.co/8lpNM22Knl

— cahnman (@cahnman) July 29, 2020

You can read the full article here, but the TL,DR version is that Chris del Conte pretty much called Ross Bjork a coward to his face. Del Conte also told Bjork that A&M was hurting college football by refusing to play. Bjork responded with a bunch of political non-answers.

This was less than a year ago.

What's remarkable about this isn't so much the substance of what Bjork said. It's not a secret that A&M are a bunch of puss...panzies who are afraid to play Texas. That's not new.

What is new is the chutzpah of Ross Bjork trying to claim that Texas has ever been anything other than crystal clear on this topic.

And that Ross Bjork did so in a way that was so easily Googleable.

Apparently, in addition to being a coward, Ross Bjork is also a liar.

Real winner you've got there A&M.

Bottom Line:  To make such a flagrantly false, yet easily verifiable, claim is dumb even by A&M's standards.

#TXLEGE: Beckely, Bonnen, and how Texas Democrats missed another opportunity

"But someone will say, “You have faith and I have works.” Show me your faith apart from your works, and I will show you my faith by my works."
James 2:18

Yesterday, in our post about the bizarre beef between Dennis Bonnen and Michelle Beckley, we wrote:

[B]eing attacked by Bonnen is pretty much the best thing that could happen to Michelle Beckley

It's now been 24 hours since that post.  And 48 hours since the original kerfuffle.  Yet, except for one tweet that causally refers to Bonnen, we've yet to hear a word about this from Beckley.  At least according to her campaign website, Facebook page, or Twitter feed.

And that's revealing in and of itself.

We don't want to litigate any dispute between Bonnen and Beckley.  According to sources that reached out to us after yesterday's post, Bonnen's personal dislike for her might have reasonably decent explanation.  That's not the point.  The point is that, politically, when you're personally attacked by a corrupt speaker of the other party...it's probably a good idea to tell people.

Michelle Beckley should have been campaigning on "having been personally attacked by a corrupt Republican speaker" (or something similar) for the past year.  Having failed to do that, she could have belatedly launched that campaign after this weekend's incident.  She's done neither.  It's a textbook example of what we discussed Saturday (and in January) (and last November).

Bottom Line: Given the state/national environment, it might not matter...but if it's close.

#TXLEGE: What's Bonnen's beef with Michelle Beckley?!?

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Going back to when we first listened to the audio recording last summer, we've always been struck by Dennis Bonnen's obsession with Michelle Beckley.  Obviously, anyone who know this author knows we don't care about PG-13 language.  Still, for a sitting speaker to get into that level of vulgarity against an irrelevant back bencher is...odd.

But then, over the weekend, this happened:

@ForHD65 Michelle, I don’t think you want anyone reminded why your actions merit the description of “vile and heinous” but since you brought it up... #txlege https://t.co/fIZcLnP3TV pic.twitter.com/7jOfI1xGGV

— Speaker Dennis Bonnen (@RepDennisBonnen) July 26, 2020

Bonnen goes on to link to this Denton Record-Chronicle piece about some extremely vague allegations that Beckley might have made some racially charged comments a few years ago.  Who knows.  Maybe.  But does anyone actually believe that Dennis Bonnen, of all people, actually cares about that?!?

Cuz' we don't.

We strongly suspect that something happened last session that isn't public knowledge.  We don't know what.  But it's the most plausible explanation for how Bonnen's behaving.

Bottom Line: There's GOT to be a backstory here.  Whatever that backstory might be, however, being attacked by Bonnen is pretty much the best thing that could happen to Michelle Beckley.  How odd.

-------

Note: If anybody knows any more details, do feel free to e-mail us at cahnman@hotmail.com.  Confidentiality obviously respected.  Please don't send us direct messages on Facebook or Twitter.

#TXLEGE: Still more Bi-Partisan Political Malpractice

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Yesterday, KXAN offered a preview of the fall campaign in Texas.  In so doing, they unintentionally offered a snapshot with what's wrong with both parties.  Here's the offending section:

Outgoing Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen said “We need to do better,” when asked if Republicans are doing enough to connect with voters virtually during the pandemic.

“I would encourage all Texans to participate and not just participate by voting,” Bonnen told KXAN, noting, too, that some virtual campaigning has included negativity on social media and that people should instead participate in a positive manner. “It’s of great importance that they engage and that they be part of that discussion and that commentary so that their voice is not run over.”

Before we get to the political stuff, let us make a non-partisan point: It is disgusting and disgraceful, and insulting to any notion of honest government, for Dennis Bonnen to be quoted in this article.

However, given that Bonnen was quoted in the article is begs some follow up questions for both parties.

For the GOP:

• On what planet is this a good look?!?  Even if you don't care about Bonnen's corruption (which you obviously don't), it doesn't take a genius to see that he's a gigantic political liability.  Why is he speaking on behalf of your party?!?  Of course, we've been making this point for nearly a year.

For the Democrats:

• Given that Bonnen keeps insisting upon thrusting himself into the news, why aren't you making him a campaign issue?!?  He should be a household name by now.  That he isn't might just be the single most astounding squandered opportunity in the history of politics.

In researching this blog post, we found this gem from last November: Republicans still deserve to lose...but Democrats don't deserve to win.

Not a lot has changed since then.  Republicans are still awful (and getting worse).  But the Democrats...still...seem to dumb to take (or at least maximize) advantage.

Then again...well.

Another data point: For as much of a debacle as the GOP convention has been and remains, have the Democrats really taken advantage?!?  Besides some snarky commentary on social media?!?  Have they actually done anything?!?

Not that we can tell.

We can't believe we're saying this, but for the first time in ages we can see a plausible path for something resembling the status quo to prevail.

It's completely pathetic, but it might just be the case.

We can't believe we just typed that.

Bottom Line:  GOP keeps handing D's opportunities.  But D's keep squandering them.  It's quite something.

If Chad Prather's serious

"Moreover you shall select from all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers of thousands, rulers of hundreds, rulers of fifties, and rulers of tens."
Exodus 18:21

Chad Prather recently spoke with Texas Scorecard about his recently declared run for Governor in '22:


Highlights:

• If he's talking to Empower first, that's a good sign.

•  "Texas isn't the Texas that most Texans think it is."
• Ain't THAT the truth.

•  "Anti-mandatory anything."

•  Education system: "Moving kids toward a socialist worldview."

•  Lives just outside of Ft. Worth (Johnson county).

•  Says more in support of constitutional carry in one interview than Greg Abbott has ever.
• "I don't like to see Oklahoma leading the charge" on 2A issues.
•  Once again, ain't THAT the truth.

• "We are expansion, we are growth."
• Note: More of this please.

•  "We've got to stop overlegislating everything."

It's an ok start.

That being said, we're not particularly inspired.

Prather seems to demonstrate a good grasp of certain foundational principles of governance.  That's good, so far as it goes.  But we're not really hearing anything specific to Texas.  And, well, that's important.

Texas is governed by its own unique blend of crony capitalism (aka. the good ol' boy system).  That's why things are the way that they are in this state.  To govern this state effectively, you need to understand that system without getting caught up in it (which might, unfortunately, be impossible).

Also: What powers currently possessed by the Governor of Texas does Chad Prather intend to use?!?  How does he intend to use them?!?  How would Chad Prather use those powers differently than Greg Abbott?!?  Does Chad Prather even know the specific powers delegated to the Governor under the Texas constitution?!?

Don't get us wrong, we'd vote for Chad Prather in a heartbeat over anyone else likely to appear on the 2022 ballot (ie. Greg Abbott and/or George P. Bush).  But there are light years of difference between being an acceptable protest vote and actual viability.  To say nothing of governing in the event you win.

So, we'll see.

Bottom Line: Lotta unresolved questions.  Plenty of time, however, to resolve them.  Situation worth monitoring.

Elon Musk to Austin could get fun

"But You, O God, shall bring them down to the pit of destruction;
Bloodthirsty and deceitful men shall not live out half their days;
But I will trust in You."
Psalm 55:23

So it's official:

Austin will soon be home to a $1.1 billion Gigafactory, Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk announced during the company's quarterly earnings update on Wednesday.

"We're going to make it a factory that's going to be stunning," he told investors, adding that construction is "already underway."

As proposed, the factory will be located on a 2,000-acre site in Southeast Travis County. It will provide at least 5,000 jobs and produce the Cybertruck pickup and the Model Y, a midsize SUV.

Both Del Valle ISD and Travis County offered Tesla tax rebates to build the factory in Austin.

First, allow us to state the obvious: As a resident of both Travis County and Del Valle ISD, we completely oppose giving special treatment to Tesla. Broad base, low rates, and all that. That we've been busy with other things, and had higher priorities recently, should not be mistaken for assent.

However...this is a deal that could blow up in the faces of a whole bunch of politicians who deserve it.

It's not a secret that Musk doesn't suffer petty tyrants well.  Unfortunately for Musk, that's what most of our state and local elected officials actually are in reality.  Eventually, Elon Musk is going to figure out that reality.  When that happens, it will be glorious.

About a month ago, following the Peter Rex/WSJ op-ed, we wrote a long post about why CEO's from other locations should no longer buy they company line about either Austin or Texas.  In terms of substance, the points we made to Peter Rex are the same as the points we'd make to Elon Musk.  But the TL,DR version is that both of them have fallen for a company line about both Austin and Texas that's no longer relevant.  Dazed and Confused was three decades ago.

Of course, that's before we get to the fact that Tesla's business model remains illegal in the state of Texas.

The whole thing's gonna be a shitshow.

Bottom Line: Obviously, this is a terrible deal for taxpayers.  We get that.  But taxpayers get hosed all the time (especially in this town).  In terms of entertainment value, however, the gloriousness of the coming debacle could easily make this very, very, worth it.

Quinnipiac Poll confirms a bunch of stuff we already knew

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Brutal:

AUSTIN — Democratic challenger Joe Biden has a 1-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday.

The same poll of registered voters shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott hemorrhaging support over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The survey shows 47% of Texans approving of the governor's approach while 48% disapprove. That is a swing of 21 percentage points from early June.

….

And Abbott's overall approval rate is 48%, with 44% disapproving.

In Quinnipiac's poll released in early June, Abbott had a 56-32 percent job approval rating. The governor is not up for re-election this year.

Again, none of this is news.  It's just further documented proof of a trend that's been obvious for months.  That being said, Ted Cruz's numbers remained surprisingly strong.

Bottom Line: The game isn't over, but we're getting into the later innings and it doesn't look like the home team has a clue about what it's doing.

#TXLEGE: The Budget Outlook Remains Pretty Brutal

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."
Ezekiel 14:13

Hoo boy:

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar delivered bleak but unsurprising news Monday: Because of the economic fallout triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the amount of general revenue available for the state’s current two-year budget is projected to be roughly $11.5 billion less than originally estimated. That puts the state on track to end the biennium, which runs through August 2021, with a deficit of nearly $4.6 billion, Hegar said.

Those figures are a significant downward revision from Hegar’s last revenue estimate in October 2019, when the comptroller said the state would have over $121 billion to spend on its current budget and end the biennium with a surplus of nearly $2.9 billion. The state, Hegar said, will now have roughly $110 billion to work with for the current budget.

Hegar’s latest estimate, he stressed in a letter to Gov. Greg Abbott and other state leaders, carries “an unprecedented amount of uncertainty” and could change drastically in the coming months, thanks to the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, a recent drop in oil prices.

“We have had to make assumptions about the economic impact of COVID-19, the duration and effects of which remain largely unknown,” Hegar wrote. “Our forecast assumes restrictions [on businesses and people] will be lifted before the end of this calendar year, but that economic activity will not return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this biennium.”

Keep in mind:

• This is just the current two-year budget cycle, the numbers are even worse for the next cycle (although, to be fair, there are several years for the economy to recover in the interim).

• This doesn't account for the way they have to backfill the regular Medicaid shortfall.

Bottom Line: Next session is going to be miserable for the powers that be (the silver lining, of course, is that they deserve it).

Everything You Need to Know about the RPT Debacle (in one tweet)

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Ironically, the @TexasGOP voted to make election integrity it's number one priority.

There were 4077 votes and 3238 participants.

🤔#RPT2020 #rptvision2020 #txlege

— credentialed yet? (@Daniel_Greer) July 20, 2020

Texas GOP Convention Livestream

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

The Saga Continues

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

UPDATE:

Breaking: A federal judge has ruled in favor of @TexasGOP-Steven Hotze, ordering Houston to allow the RPT convention to proceed in person at GRB.

Hearing that it will likely be appealed for an emergency review by the city to the 5th Circuit Court.

— Brad Johnson (@bradj_TX) July 17, 2020

-------

ORIGINAL POST:

This speaks for itself:

The Texas Republican Party has postponed its state convention by a day to give itself more time to figure out technical issues that plagued the virtual gathering Thursday.

After a nearly four-hour meeting that ended after midnight on Friday, the State Republican Executive Committee voted 51-5 to resume convention business Saturday instead of later Friday. The delay was encouraged by party Chairman James Dickey, who expressed uncertainty throughout the night that the party could start the convention again Friday without encountering further problems related to its online credentialing process.

....

Now, with the SREC vote, convention business will not begin again until Saturday morning, likely about 8 a.m., Dickey said. That also means the convention will last a day later than originally scheduled, going into Sunday.

For weeks, the party had pushed to hold an in-person convention in Houston, one that was expected to draw thousands of people, even as coronavirus cases spiked across the state. After exhausting legal options earlier this week, party officials moved forward with the virtual meeting, which they said they had long been preparing for as a backup plan.

The saga has been especially high-stakes for Dickey, who faces a serious challenge to his chairmanship from Allen West, the former Florida congressman.

Honestly...what is there to say at this point...except...well:

via GIPHY

Bottom Line: If we cared, this would be depressing. But we don't. So it's funny.

Hegar (Completely Accurately) Kicks Cornyn in Teeth

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;

But by a man of understanding and knowledge Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Back in January, we sat down to analyze a potential general election between MJ Hegar and John Cornyn. It turned into a lot of work, so we never finished it. With that field now set, maybe it makes sense to loop back. We'll see.

But the TL,DR version is that MJ Hegar is a **VERY** good candidate. And John Cornyn's record is completely indefensible. And that's not a good place for any three term incumbent.

In her opening salvo of the general election, Hegar illustrates why:

Ignore the first minute. It's the type of self-promoting fluff you see from any politician. For our purposes, what matters is her takedown of Cornyn in minute two.

Specifically, Hegar makes three claims:

• Cornyn's poll numbers suck.

• Cornyn's made several asinine comments about COVID (which she plays in all of their excruciating detail).

• In response to Cornyn's gaffes: "That's ridiculous."

Here's the thing: All three of those claims are accurate.

[Note: See here and here.]

Furthermore, that's just the past few months.  John Cornyn has three terms worth of baggage.  If Hegar can exploit it....

Bottom Line: This race...could get interesting.

GOP Runoff Quick Takes: Basically A Muddle

"Moreover you shall select from all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers of thousands, rulers of hundreds, rulers of fifties, and rulers of tens."
Exodus 18:21

[Note: We didn't really do that...but what else is new.]

We don't really feel like doing a long analysis of what happened, but some thoughts:

• Abbott had an ok night.  But it wasn't anything special.  He's not really an asset, but neither is he toxic.  Long-term fate remains TBD.

• Dan Flynn and J.D. Sheffield prove that incumbents with really bad records can still get popped.

• Justin Berry and Glen Rodgers prove that, in open seat races where you can pretend to be all things to all people, good ol' boy cash can get you across the finish line.

• Speaking of those two, it's going to be fascinating to see what happens to their districts after redistricting...but we suspect both will have to introduce themselves to a lot of new voters in two years.

• Carrie Isaac and Shelby Slawson prove that good candidates win.

• Kathleen Wall proves that, no matter how much of your own money you light on fire, baseless, over-the-top accusations rarely stick.  Such a waste.  Congratulations Kathleen, you're the new David Dewhurst.

Bottom Line: A bunch of stuff we already knew got proven all over again.

Runoff Elections 2020: What 2 Watch 4

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

With runoff elections today, here are some things on which to keep an eye. We don't claim this list is comprehensive. Nevertheless, it's what we'll be watching for.

Democrats:

• U.S. Senate -- We've been meaning to do a longer writeup on this topic for about six months, but haven't gotten around to it.  Nevertheless, MJ Hegar is, easily and by far, the most compelling Democrat to run for statewide office in at least a decade.  Royce West, by contrast, is a rather middling state senator.
  
  Cornyn's 100% safe against West. He's probably about 85% safe against Hegar. In the event, however, that Donald Trump and Greg Abbott continue to run the national/statewide environment into the ground, do NOT underestimate her.

• Travis County County/District Attorney -- While they aren't related, Delia and Jose Garza are running for those respective criminal justice positions on essentially pro-criminal platforms.  Woe unto all of us if either of them wins. Both are favorites.

• Dutton/Lucio -- Two of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature face unexpected runoffs.  Both seem likely to win comfortably...but we would have said that in the first round.  Major implications for next session if either falls short.

Republicans:

• Abbott's coattails -- Honestly, this is the only GOP question that matters right now.  Abbott's made a big show out of endorsing in five races.  In two others he's made endorsements that are essentially gimmes.
  
  Abbott really needs to run the table; if he loses more than one of these races, it's a **MAJOR** embarrassment.

• HD-60 (Francis/Rogers):  Foremost among races where Greg Abbott has run his mouth is this open seat race for an otherwise obscure state rep seat west of Ft. Worth.  Jon Francis is the consensus conservative candidate.  Abbott recently declared war on Francis' family.
  
  Ted Cruz, by contrast, has endorsed Francis.
  
  Abbott really needs his candidate (Glen Rodgers) to clear 60%.

• Morrow's race: Barring a (richly deserved) act of Divine retribution, the latest season of "Robert Morrow torments the Texas GOP" likely ends tonight.
  
  Nevertheless, it's been (really, really, really) funny.
  
  The final margin will still be interesting. Had the GOP handled this situation even remotely competently, Morrow wouldn't clear 10%. If Morrow gets north of 30%, that's an embarrassment for the GOP, no matter how they try to spin it.

Again, this list isn't comprehensive.

[Note: Texas Scorecard has an analysis of both parties Congressional runoffs here.]

Bottom Line: The macro-narratives are "can the Dems seize an opportunity (for once)" vs. "can the GOP avoid utterly, totally, and completely humiliating themselves (all over again)."  We don't pretend to know the answer.  Stay tuned.

Failure Theater Reaches It's Completely Predictable Conclusion

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Annnnnnnnnnnnd in the least surprising news of the day:

The Republican Party of Texas' executive committee voted Monday evening to hold its statewide convention online, concluding a weekslong whirlwind of controversy and legal battles over initial plans to hold an in-person event during the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

After exhausting legal options, the party's State Republican Executive Committee, a 64- member governing board, met virtually Monday to consider moving the convention online. The vote was 53-4.

Monday's vote is the latest development in a saga over whether the party would end up hosting what was expected to be a roughly 6,000-person event in an area of the state that has emerged as one of the country's hot spots for the coronavirus. The gathering, before Houston officials canceled it last week, was scheduled to begin Thursday at the George R. Brown Convention Center.

Earlier Monday, the all-Republican Texas Supreme Court dismissed an appeal by the party seeking to host the convention as scheduled in a 7-1 ruling. Justices also denied a similar petition spearheaded by other party officials and Steve Hotze, a conservative activist based in Houston. Later on Monday, a Harris County District Court also ruled against the party, effectively killing the party's chances of proceeding with its in-person gathering.

What's left to say?!?

Except this:


Adios Texas house.

Bottom Line: "...if you can keep it."

Bonnen and Ramsey ratchet up the gaslighting

"Behold, the noise of the report has come,
And a great commotion out of the north country,
To make the cities of Judah desolate, a den of jackals."
Jeremiah 10:22

Dennis Bonnen yesterday:

After more than 20 years in the Texas political arena, I know that, sadly, our state (and maybe even our species) is overpopulated with critics and naysayers who find it easier to disparage the efforts of leaders than to affirm and encourage them as they do what is right for the whole state, not just their particular political sect. (Incidentally, some of them have made a very nice living doing so.)

In the very recent past, the critics have come out in force to disparage and censure one of the great governors our state has known. I think of Governor Greg Abbott when I read the rest of the quote:

“The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.“
Theodore Roosevelt

Today, as our state battles a resurgent pandemic, political nincompoops have chosen to waste time and energy drafting resolutions to censure a man who has been working around the clock for the past four months to protect our state from a deadly virus.

Ross Ramsey this morning:

The trolls are real.

Gov. Greg Abbott is feeling the derision of restive activists in his own party.

They’re noisy — and powerless. They work with the same machinery used by trolls on social media, who labor in the hope that public shaming of their enemies might give them the leverage to shape the world, or some corner of it.

The Texas trolls want to ignore the governor’s latest restrictions for wearing masks and keeping social distance and closing bars as the measures of the pandemic worsen. Abbott folded when confronted by people protesting business closings in May but this time is ignoring them, and responding to the coronavirus as a big deal — a task worth his government’s time and attention.

You get the picture.

The sentiment isn't surprising. For Dennis Bonnen and Ross Ramsey to be condescending and smug is expected. That being said, the vitriol IS noteworthy. Clearly, something is getting under their skin.

This is especially true for Ross Ramsey. While his so-called 'analysis' is often cliched and trite, he's usually nice about it. In nearly a decade of reading his columns, we've never seen him lose his cool like this.

Besides being funny, Dennis Bonnen's thin-skinned brownnosing isn't all that noteworthy on its own. Coupled with Ramsey, however, it's a trend. Somebody's spooked about something.

Bottom Line: Sometimes, the reaction of other people highlights something you would have otherwise missed.

GOP Geniuses Goosing Robert Morrow's Name ID (all over again)

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap."

Galatians 6:7

Back in March, we wrote the following about Robert Morrow's surprisingly strong primary showing:

In a race where one candidate was getting tons of earned media, and the other candidate only raised $17 grand, the geniuses at the GOP decided to...help the candidate they didn't want to win get even more earned media.

Way to go geniuses.

Imagine an alternative world where, rather than spending the last six weeks helping Robert Morrow build name id, the GOP had poured $100 grand into helping Robert Morrow's strongest opponent build his or her own positive name ID.

You'd probably be looking at a different reality this morning.

Having seen their anti-Morrow strategy backfire spectacularly, one would think the GOP might try something different. But one would be wrong. How pathetic.

To be fair, we have seen some effort to build positive name ID for whatshername, the chick running against Morrow. But those efforts have been super half assed scattershot at best. Instead, we've mostly gotten mailers like the one pictured above. And don't get us started on this dumpster fire of a website.

The great, raging, irony in all of this is that whatshername is a compelling candidate. Had the powers that be chosen to do so, they could have made a strong positive case for her. Had they combined that positive case with saturation level advertising, the powers that be in the GOP could have been sitting pretty. But that ship has sailed and the GOP missed the boat.

Honestly, at this point, we don't care. Our only interest in this race is that we find Robert Morrow's ability to torment the Texas GOP to be really, really, funny. Our only regret is that nobody got Morrow asking Karl Rove about Jeff Gannon on video.

Bottom Line: What is it they say about trying the same thing over and over again expecting a different result?!?

Mixed Messages (at best)

"The way of a guilty man is perverse;

But as for the pure, his work is right."
Proverbs 21:8

Dan Patrick yesterday:

.@DanPatrick on Fox tonight calls @TexasGOP convention cancellation “nothing but a political hack job by Mayor Turner,” says convention will happen “either in person somewhere else or online” https://t.co/ttUhsEglFx #txlege

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) July 9, 2020

Dan Patrick last week:

New: @DanPatrick says he agrees with SREC members who opposed in-person convention due to anticipated low attendance. “It also risks the exposure of those who do attend. But I respect the will of the 40 people who voted and I will be there.” #txlege pic.twitter.com/rOZDPXuPz5

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) July 3, 2020

We had originally intended to tear Patrick a new one over this. Buuut...as we read Patrick's comments a second and third time, it doesn't seem crazy to argue that Patrick is discussing different topics. So, speaking for no one but ourselves, we don't necessarily have a problem with cutting Dan Patrick a little bit of slack here.

Buuuuuuuuuut...it took us multiple readings of Patrick's comments, combined with a detailed knowledge of the context to reach that conclusion. And that's just about the nicest way to read it. And Dan Patrick squandered that level of widespread benefit of the doubt a long time ago. And it's difficult to argue that more hostile takes are necessarily wrong.

Bottom Line: When the charitable explanation is complicated, and the uncharitable one is plausible, that's never a good place to be.

Regardless of Outcome, convention DEBACLE illustrates EVERYTHING wrong with the Texas GOP

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap."
Galatians 6:7

Lolz:

The Republican Party of Texas' in-person convention next week has been canceled, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said Wednesday.

The news came after Turner directed the city's legal department to work with the Houston First Corp., which operates the George R. Brown Convention Center, to review the contract with the state party.

Turner said officials with Houston First sent a letter this afternoon to the State Republican Executive Committee, the state party's governing board, canceling the gathering, which was set to happen July 16-18 and was expected to draw roughly 6,000 attendees.

"These are some very serious times," Turner said at a news conference. "Simply, the public health concerns outweighed anything else."

We've seen speculation floating around about what's really happening. Some believe Sylvester's doing Abbott a favor so the latter doesn't get booed. Others believe Sylvester's doing dirty work for the Democrats by forcing RPT to spend money on lawyers that could otherwise go to candidates. Either hypotheses is consistent with currently known facts.

Suffice to say, it looks like Sylvester Turner is doing an awfully big political favor for...somebody.

At this point, however, does the specific identity of that "somebody" matter?!?

Because, however we got here, the net result is that the Texas GOP has just spent the past two weeks being utterly, totally, and completely humiliated.

And isn't that typical?!?

At this point last year, we were warning that the Texas GOP's chronic underperformance was about to catch up with it.  While we had our reasons, those reasons almost seem cute in hindsight.  But whatever the proximate cause, the underlying reality is that their performance in office just isn't good enough.

What's happened since then?!?

Well, we had a pandemic.  Greg Abbott put a lobbyist in charge. And Abbott otherwise caved (while running his mouth to cover his...well, you know).

So here we are. The details don't matter. The only thing that matters is that this most recent debacle is the completely predictable consequence of trends that have been allowed to run unchecked for a long, long, time.

And there's no reason to believe any of it's going to change (at least for the better) anytime soon.

Bottom Line: Actual leadership could have prevented this. Failing that, prudence could have minimized the damage. Yet neither happened. And here we are.

Abbott/Dead Armadillos: An Ongoing Series (Part 4 - Tribune Belatedly Recognizes Obvious)

"So then, because you are lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will vomit you out of My mouth."
Revelation 3:16

Texas Tribune this morning:

Greg Abbott has had a rough month. The civil liberties wing of the governor’s Republican Party, with its focus on individual freedom and economics, is lobbing rotten tomatoes his way — increasingly agitated by his attempts to cage the coronavirus with a new series of behavioral restrictions.

Abbott is simultaneously building the case for higher office for some of the state Democratic Party’s future stars — people in the local offices he relied on in the first stages of the pandemic, then cut off from power and now is trying to blame for the failures of his own response to the coronavirus.

If doing a good job is the best politics, Abbott should be making it harder for Texans to see his opponents in either party as future leaders — and certainly not as potential challengers.

Instead, he’s making it easier.

The whole Tribune piece is unintentionally hilarious. Mostly because everything Ross Ramsey observes has been blindingly obvious for MONTHS. But, you know, way to go Ross!

(We guess.)

As we explained almost three months ago:

Abbott's already pissed off the stay-home-forever crowd. Now, he's pissing of a not-insignificant part of his base. He's creating a rather difficult needle to thread for himself.

Nothing that happened this morning is new. Still, given the degree to which he fancies himself the gatekeeper of socially acceptable opinion, for Ross Ramsey to state this publicly is noteworthy. Expect Rice University professor Mark Jones to follow suit shortly.

Bottom Line: None of this is actually "news," but the perception becoming this widespread ain't good for the incumbent.

"Seniority" is a terrible reason to vote for anyone...ESPECIALLY Pete Sessions

"Therefore by their fruits you will know them."
Matthew 7:20

We've seen some chatter on social media about Pete Sessions telling people that his Seniority will allow him to do good things if he gets back to Congress. Don't believe it. At least, don't expect him to do anything good for central Texas.

We actually addressed this argument last fall, in the context of a different federal official:

Obviously, this website doesn't *really* support pork-barrel governance. Taxpayers elsewhere in the U.S. shouldn't *really* subsidize I-35 expansion. Still, for such a situation to emerge under the jurisdiction of a U.S. Senator who claims to "work within the system" indicates said U.S. Senator's incompetence.

Put differently: $23 Trillion national debt...and John Cornyn STILL can't secure funding for (already federal) I-35.

It's quite something.

Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn may have been completely wretched. But at least Texas got some infrastructure out of them. With John Cornyn, we get the wretchedness without the infrastructure.

Here's what's funny: When we originally wrote that post, we came very close to including Sessions. The only reason we didn't is that Sessions wasn't currently in office. But if Sessions is trying to use this argument to get back into office, then it's worth considering the same thing.

Pete Sessions was a congressman in Dallas for twenty years. Did traffic in Dallas get better or worse during that time?!? If Pete Sessions couldn't secure federal funding to address the I-30/35/45 cluster[REDACTED], what makes anyone think Sessions "seniority" will mean anything good for anyone besides Pete Sessions?!?

Again, this is **NOT** an endorsement of pork-barrel governance, but it is to say that if Pete Sessions alleged "seniority" meant anything...Dallas would have had a lot more bacon.

After twenty years of Pete Sessions, Dallas remains largely bacon free.

Bottom Line: Dallas traffic tells you everything you need to know about whether or not Pete Sessions' alleged "seniority" bears fruit for his constituents.

Abbott's Going AGAINST Public Opinion on COVID

"As for God, His way is perfect;
The word of the Lord is proven;
He is a shield to all who trust in Him.
Psalm 18:30

Yesterday, we mentioned Greg Abbott's political standing in the new Trib poll. The whole thing is worth exploring deeper. But the TL,DR version is that the trend is bad, although it has a way to go before it's fatal.

For our purposes, however, consider the following data points on COVID:

• Fewer Texans were concerned about both the spread of the Coronavirus in their communities, and about contracting (or a family member contracting) the virus in the latest poll than they were in April. The share of Texans who reported being “extremely” or “very” concerned about the spread of the coronavirus in their community decreased from 54% in April to 47% in June.

• The share of Texans who reported that they were only leaving their residence when they “absolutely” had to saw a dramatic decrease from 63% in April to 37% in June. Those who reported “living normally, coming and going as usual” increased from 9% to 19%.

• Texans are far from unanimous in their willingness to submit to practices necessary to implement a contact tracing program.

Again, the full picture is somewhat complicated.  But while Texans remain wary of COVID and willing to voluntarily curtail some activities, they're getting awfully sick of politicians telling them what to do.  Yet, despite public opinion moving in his direction, Abbott panicked.

Bottom Line: This is one of the most mind boggling unforced errors in recent memory.

Greg Abbott and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Three Days

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap."
Galatians 6:7

Stories one and two (both from Saturday):

The Ector County Republican Party voted Saturday to censure Gov. Greg Abbott, accusing him of overstepping his authority in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, while state Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, called for a special session so lawmakers could have a say in how Texas proceeds amid soaring caseloads.

Story number three (from earlier this morning):

Approval ratings of Governor Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic remained net positive: 49% approved and 41% disapproved. This represented a 7-point drop in his positive rating in April, and a 12-point increase in his negative rating, amounting to a 19-point reduction in his net approval rating from + 27 in April to +8 in June.

We don't have time to address each of these stories on their own. But the TL,DR version is that any one of them would be bad for Abbott. The three of them together is brutal.

Again, each of these deserves a full post...but quick hits:

• Censure is pretty much the most embarrassing thing that can happen to a GOP elected official in Texas.

• Charles Perry calling for a special session means Abbott's loss of support in the legislature is growing rather significantly.

• The Trib poll means Abbott has nowhere to go if he truly loses his base.

Also, keep in mind that the Trib poll was conducted before the mask order...and there ain't no way Abbott's numbers went up after that.

It's quite the pickle.

Bottom Line: One of these headlines is bad enough. Three is brutal. But the worst part for Abbott is that there's no reason to believe the bad headlines will stop any time soon.

#TXLEGE: Cruz calls state government a "Swamp"

"They have forsaken the right way and gone astray, following the way of Balaam the son of Beor, who loved the wages of unrighteousness;"
2 Peter 2:15

New ad in the Jon Francis race:



This is fascinating on all sortsa levels.

As we discussed the other day, for Cruz to stick with Francis despite the recent caterwauling of the phony outrage crowd speaks volumes.

Keep in mind: Cruz worked in state government for a stretch in the mid-2000's, so he's seen it up close.

Then again, lo those many years ago, Ted Cruz was the guy whose original claim to fame was having beaten a sitting Lite Guv in a statewide race.

Bottom Line: The accuracy of the message is obvious, but for this particular messenger to deliver it has all sorts of implications.

National Conservative Media Figures (FINALLY!!!) start WISING UP to Abbott

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap."
Galatians 6:7

Obviously, Abbott did his mask order yesterday.   It doesn't take a genius to figure out how we feel about that subject.  It's not any different from anything else we've been saying about the man.

It's not a secret that this website has been basically neutral on Abbott since 2015 (Abbott's first session).  It's also not a secret that we basically turned against Abbott in 2017 (Abbott's second session).   Finally, it's not a secret which issue clued us in all those many years ago.

[Note: It's water under the bridge at this point, but imagine the pain that could have been avoided had people listened to us back then.]

That being said, what's noteworthy about yesterday is how so many NATIONAL conservative media types reacted.

Jesse Kelly:

The past few months have been hard on Gavin Newsom. pic.twitter.com/M6zR1v5z4t

— Jesse Kelly (@JesseKellyDC) July 2, 2020

Daniel Horowitz:

No American should be restricted by arbitrary coronavirus edicts so long as rioters are able to violate them while destroying public and private property. Just say no. Fight back @GregAbbott_TX https://t.co/62sGNgtVoQ

— Daniel Horowitz (@RMConservative) July 3, 2020

Sara Gonzales:

Governor Abbott is a sellout. https://t.co/yFYohyxlz0

— Sara Gonzales (@SaraGonzalesTX) July 2, 2020

[Note to Sara Gonzales: Your use of the word "sellout" is accurate on a deeper level than you realize, see here and here.]

Chad Prather:

I’m running for Governor of Texas.

— Chad Prather Parler @watchchad (@WatchChad) July 3, 2020

[Note to Chad Prather: You better be willing to call five or six special sessions per biennium...otherwise, it's pointless.]

Matt Kibbe:

Once upon a time I took solace in the belief that I could grab my go bag and escape to the free Republic of Texas. Vote @WatchChad https://t.co/n6F1XgFA8S

— Matt Kibbe (@mkibbe) July 3, 2020

[Note to Matt Kibbe: There's nothing going on today that is anything other than the logical extension of all of the trends we first explained to you at Voice and Exit in 2015.]

Of course, this is noteworthy because national conservative media has always been Greg Abbott's real "base."  Since time immemorial, Abbott's primary political strategy has always been to give them good copy on issues where his office has no actual jurisdiction.  They get clicks/ratings, Abbott gets powder puff coverage.  This creates the space for Abbott to, in his actual day to day job performance, govern Texas like your typical good ol' boy politician.

It was a great strategy...for awhile. National outlets don't really have the bandwidth to follow the day-to-day minuate of Texas state government. Rinse, lather, repeat.

The fundamental problem for Abbott, at this point, is that (due to his bumbling) the day to day minuate of Texas State government has become a major national story.

That's a genie that will, at best, be very difficult to put back into the bottle.

If Tucker Carlson ever puts two and two together on the subject of Greg Abbott, it'll be game over.

Bottom Line: Better late than never, etc.

Budget Hole Grows Deeper

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."

Ezekiel 14:13

Yowza:

It’s the beginning of another month, which as of late has meant another report from the comptroller’s office showing a decline in sales tax collection in Texas compared to last year.

On Tuesday, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said state sales tax revenue totaled $2.67 billion in June, 6.5 percent less than in June 2019.

Sales taxes remitted to the state in June consist mostly of taxes collected by businesses in May.

“The decline in state sales tax collections was driven principally by steep drops in remittances from oil- and gas-related sectors,” said Hegar. “Collections from the construction and amusement service sectors were also sharply down.”

The state’s sales tax is the biggest source of revenue for the state government—accounting for more than 57 percent of Texas’ total tax collections.

Bottom Line: Budget cuts, they are a-comin'!!!!

Florida Man uses Psuedo Tough Guy act to deflect from Valid Question

"A good man obtains favor from the Lord,
But a man of wicked intentions He will condemn."
Proverbs 12:2

We don't care about the RPT chair.  We really don't.  We're not a delegate this cycle and we find the whole concept of holding a leadership election for Captain of the Titanic after the iceberg has been struck to be bizarre.

Nevertheless, for those who do care about such things, the past week saw a highly revealing development.

It began when Big Jolly politics asked some questions about Allen West's extracurricular activities.

One of the biggest issues in the race is the ability and willingness of the candidates to serve as a full-time State Chairman. Seven months After the 2018 State Convention, (nearly a year and a half after Dickey first took office) the State Republican Executive Committee (SREC) approved a $150,000 annual salary for this State Chairman, with the expectation that the Chairman serve in a full-time capacity.

This strategy of expecting and paying for a full-time commitment from the State Chairman has paid tremendous dividends for the Party. Under Chairman Dickey’s full-time leadership, the Republican Party of Texas has posted record fundraising numbers, which is allowing the party to hire an unprecedented number of field staff across the state for the upcoming general election. Chairman Dickey has committed to continuing to serve as a full-time Chairman if he is re-elected to the post.

Dickey’s opponent, former one-term Florida Congressman Allen West, is well-known to many due to his frequent celebrity television appearances over the years. Since moving to Texas in 2014 to assume the leadership of the now-defunct National Center for Policy Analysis (which West led into bankruptcy), West showed little interest in Texas grassroots politics until announcing his candidacy for State Chairman last year.

West currently has a number of political and professional commitments that will make it impossible for him to make anything even close to the full-time commitment needed from the Republican Party of Texas State Chairman.

The Big Jolly piece goes on to detail various five and six figure commitments Allen West has made to any number of scammer PAC's "conservative organisations."

West replied on YouTube:


You should watch the three minute video for yourself, but the TL,DR version is that West resorts to blustery browbeating instead of candor.

West attempts to make this about the fact that he's "working for a living," or some such nonsense. This despite the fact that, as the excerpt above makes completely obvious, Big Jolly was asking if West would work full time for RPT. Political professionals call this "changing the subject."

This isn't about Allen West making money. This is about the fact that how Allen West is currently making money suggests Allen West won't be able to perform the duties if RPT chair. Last time we checked, the number of hours in a day remains capped at 24.

But there's another aspect about Allen West playing with matches in a field full of straw men that's far more disturbing.

During his diatribe, Allen West refers to being "a colonel in the United States Army" five or six times. You could turn it into a drinking game. The problem is, we've seen this playbook before. 

This is the Bill McRaven playbook: Use your military service (which isn't relevant to the position in question) to deflect any and all criticism of your current performance. Bill McRaven did this repeatedly during his time at UT (to the point that it became a running joke). The only difference between Bill McRaven and Allen West is that the former made it all the way to Admiral.

Unfortunately, it doesn't take a genius to see how this plays out in an RPT context.

Whenever the inevitable SREC questions arise about party finances, Allen West will attempt to gaslight the person asking the question: "CoLoNeL In ThE UnItEd StAtEs ArMy."

We prefer the Marines.

Bottom Line: This was a really easy question to answer, and the fact that Allen West chose to not answer it tells you what you need to know.