Saturday, February 15, 2020

Cornyn's latest poll numbers are pretty terrible (but that's also nothing new)

"If a ruler pays attention to lies,
All his servants become wicked."
Proverbs 29:12

From the latest Trib poll:

We recommend exploring Jim Henson's links in more detail.

That being said, the key takeaways are:

  • Cornyn's net approval rating is three points underwater.
  • Cornyn's underwater with independents.
  • Cornyn's job approval with Republicans is only 66%.
Those numbers are terrible for a three term incumbent.

We discussed this phenomenon a few months ago, when the last Trib poll came out.  We don't have anything new to add.  That piece remains our best guess as to an explanation.  This week's poll merely confirms the trend.

That trend ain't good.

That being said, in writing this blog post, we came across this post from 2013.  Cornyn's poll numbers weren't very good back then either.  Yet Cornyn proceeded to solidly (if not spectacularly) win both the primary and the general election that cycle.

So history's probably on Cornyn's side, especially now that national Democrats seem to be specialized in getting lousy Republicans across the finish line in Texas.

Still, nobody should be under the illusion that Cornyn's a strong candidate.

Bottom Line: Given recent developments nationally, it might not matter.  But the national environment can change quickly.  If it does, a three term incumbent with weak ratings in his own party, who's underwater with everybody else, probably isn't your best bet.

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