“Thus says the Lord: ‘Behold, I will bring calamity on this place and on its inhabitants, all the curses that are written in the book which they have read before the king of Judah,"
2 Chronicles 34:24
Will Franklin's indispensable guide to Wendy's Primary Disaster:
In the heavily Democrat Rio Grande Valley, an essential region of the state if Democrats want to turn Texas blue, Davis got fewer votes than any Democrat on the primary ballot in more than two decades. This is astonishing, given that Valley population has grown by more than a third during that time.Amen, read the whole thing (complete with charts) here.
Moreover, Wendy Davis is the only Democrat nominee in the last 20 years to lose any Valley counties, suffering defeat in Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy (plus about two dozen others along the border and around the state), and winning a marginal victory in Cameron County (Brownsville) by a mere 688 votes. Her Rio Grande Valley performance (for the sake of time alone, I didn't include every single border or South Texas county here) was historically awful, despite rapid growth in the region over this timeframe.
There is obviously not any sort of perfect r-squared correlation between partisan primary turnout and general election results, but a primary election is undeniably is a key indicator of voter interest and excitement-- and there is a clear and present enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in Texas today.
In the 10 bluest, most reliably Democrat-machine counties in Texas (the ten counties, other than the "big five," with more than 10K registered voters where Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by the widest margins in 2012: Cameron, El Paso, Hidalgo, Jefferson, Jim Wells, Maverick, Starr, Val Verde, Webb, and Willacy), Davis got fewer votes than any Democrat in the last twenty years, while primary turnout was the lowest (in both raw votes and percentage voting) since 1998. Davis actually lost five of these reliably Democratic counties, and in only one (Jefferson) did she match her statewide performance.
What is eye-opening is that Greg Abbott got more votes in Wendy Davis' home county, Tarrant County. And in Dallas County. And in Harris County (Houston). And in Bexar County (San Antonio). In nearly all counties with more than 100,000 registered voters, Abbott dominated
After voting to limit elective late-term abortion and require abortion facilities to meet basic standards of safety and cleanliness, State Rep. Sergio Muñoz, Jr. (D-Palmview) was challenged by Maria Regalado from the left on the issue of his HB 2 vote. The pro-life Muñoz demolished her, pulling in 76% of the vote. Support for late-term abortion doesn't play in Texas, especially South Texas.
Wendy Davis' poor primary performance was simply the result of a lack of compatible values or message. She just is a mismatched candidate for South Texas, and her well-known extremism on behalf of late-term abortion was a disqualifying flaw for many voters in South Texas and beyond.