CAMPAIGN DONATION DISCLOSURE: $25 to Ted Cruz

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them."
Ephesians 5:11

Among Republican Presidential candidates, several have respectable records when it comes to taking on Democrats and the radical left; when it comes to taking on legacy Republicans and the crony right, Ted Cruz stands alone.

This morning, United States Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell used a sleazy parliamentary trick to bind the U.S. Senate into supporting renewal of the Export-Import bank.  In so doing, Senator McConnell reneged on an explicit promise he made to the Republican caucus earlier this spring.  Senator Cruz was having none of it:



Highlights:

• "What we just witnessed this morning is profoundly disappointing."

• Ex-Im deal way originally cut on trade bill.

• Cruz asked McConnell at GOP lunch: "What was the deal that was just cut?!?"
• "The majority leader was visibly angry with me."
• McConnell: "There is no deal."

• Staff said McConnell was lying; Cruz gave McConnell the benefit of doubt.

• "I had no choice but to assume that when the majority leader spoke to 54 Republican Senators, and made an explicit promise, that he wasn't lying to us."

• "The same procedural abuse that Harry Reid did over an over again...now the Republican leader is behaving like the senior Senator from Nevada."

• Obamacare amendment cynical: "Of course it is."
• "Meaningless political theater."

• Ex-Im: "Classic example of cronyism and corporate welfare."
• Single largest recipient is Boeing, who admits they'll be fine.

• "It is wrong and it is corrupt."

• "This institution should not operate at the beck and call of lobbyists in Washington."

• "We now know that when the Majority leader looks us in the eyes, and makes an explicit commitment, that he is willing to say things he knows are false."

• "Sadly today, we have a government of the lobbyists, by the lobbyists, and for the lobbyists."

On that note, we have made our first political donation of the 2016 cycle.  In the spirit of full disclosure, we are informing readers.  Ted Cruz's Presidential campaign is $25 richer:

I don't know about anyone else, but I just gave Ted Cruz $25 for confirming what we already knew about Mitch McConnell....
Posted by Adam Cahnman on Friday, July 24, 2015

As we said in the comments on the Facebook post, once we realized Cruz's campaign would have more than enough money, we'd held back from donating.  Today was different.  Senator Cruz's revelation this morning marks a level of honesty we've never seen in a quarter-century watching politics.  That type of honesty deserves a reward, regardless of the campaign's financial position.  We hope Senator Cruz raises an eye-popping sum off of this incident.

Cronyism on the right gravely threatens liberty.  You cannot limit government when Republican "leadership" prefers to channel big government towards their donors.  That's just as true in D.C. as it is in Austin.

Corporate welfare produces deadweight loss, which means less consumer choice at higher prices while protected industries reap a windfall.  That Republican "leadership" would go to extreme lengths to preserve corporate welfare speaks volumes.  And, finally, someone called B.S. on it.

And that's why we donated $25 to Ted Cruz's Presidential campaign; make your own donation here.

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Rush Limbaugh has a lot more here.

Replacing Bill Powers; An open letter to Governor Perry

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;"
Proverbs 29:2 (a)

The Honorable Rick Perry
Governor of Texas
1100 San Jacinto Blvd.
Austin, TX 78701

Dear Mr. Governor,

First things first, thank you for your tenacity in pursuit of Higher Education reform in Texas.  Your unwavering defense of Wallace Hall's courageous investigation has allowed the investigation to produce fruit.  According to Breitbart Texas, Bill Powers' era $215 million accounting scandals and politicized admissions decisions will come to an end next week.

The time has come to recruit Bill Powers replacement.

We urge you to consider Rush Limbaugh.

For twenty five years, Rush Limbaugh has done more to educate the public than anyone in America.  His radio show reaches more Americans than any other.  And he's effective in Texas:

Recently, Rush has penned two best selling books about American history.  He brings complex topics to life in a way others can't.  Longhorn students would be blessed by his leadership.

Rush Limbaugh understands the financial burden of student loan debt.  He understands how the current Higher education model serves students poorly.  He would make a fantastic spokesman for a $10,000 degree.

Higher education in Texas is at a crossroads.  While the recent scandals were distasteful, they offer an opportunity to advance meaningful reform.  Rush Limbaugh would be an ideal spokesman for those reforms  We strongly urge you to consider him for the coming vacancy in the Presidency at UT - Austin.  Go big or go home.

Sincerely,
Adam Cahn
Cahnman's Musings
Austin, TX
July 5, 2014

Stockman gains 22 points in latest poll; Cornyn well under 50

Human Events commissions a poll in the United States Senate Race:

The No.2 Republican in the Senate is polling below the 50 percent threshold in the party’s March 4 primary that he needs to clear in order to avoid a May 10 runoff, according to a Feb. 10-12 Human Events/Gravis poll of 729 registered Republicans.

Sen. John Cornyn (R.-Texas), the GOP Whip in the upper chamber has the approval 49 percent of those questioned and 43 percent preferred him to main challenger Rep. Stephen E. Stockman (R.-Texas), who polled 28 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the president of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll with both live callers to cell phones and automated calls to landlines. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

....

“These are dangerous numbers for Cornyn, because they show that despite his power in the Senate and his familiarity with the voters, he has not yet made the sale,”

....

The Cornyn campaign was given the poll results three days before the deadline and asked for comment for this story. Campaign spokesman Drew Brandwie said the campaign would respond, but no response was received.

The other Republicans on primary ballot are: Chris Mapp, Dwayne Stovall, Linda Vega, Curt Cleaver, Reid Reasor and Ken Cope. A run off would between the top two vote getters.

Stockman said he is energized about the primary fight, but he is distressed by the personal attacks from Cornyn’s campaign and an independent political action committee that shares the 45 North Hill Drive address in Warrenton, Va., with a Karl Rove’s American Crossroads Super PAC.

“The Cornyn campaign must have inside poll numbers that scare them,” the congressman said. “They are throwing everything at me, including things I did 20 years ago, before I became a Christian.”

Donny Ferguson, a spokesman for the Stockman campaign, said “The buzzards are circling around Cornyn’s campaign office. A runoff election is a death sentence for an incumbent.”

Stockman only started his campaign less than 90 days ago and is growing rapidly, he said.

“This is why Cornyn refuses to release his internal poll numbers,” he said.

“The only thing holding Congressman Steve Stockman back is that 55 percent of Republican primary voters aren’t familiar with him,” he said.

“In fact, this poll shows meteoric growth in support for Congressman Steve Stockman, who only started running less than 90 days ago.” Ferguson said, “Also, this poll was taken before voters learned Cornyn voted to raise Obama’s debt limit. That vote created a new, larger explosion of opposition to Cornyn that he’s struggling to contain.”

....

If there was a run off, because it is held in May there would be time for Stockman to ramp up a more active campaign and beat Cornyn, he said. “Cornyn really needs to win this primary on the fourth of March.”

These numbers are devastating for Cornyn; read the Human Events piece here, read the details of the poll here.

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A few thoughts:

• Stockman's phenomenal growth -- In the last poll we saw, back in December, Stockman was at 6%.  Gaining 22 points in two months can reasonably be described as Cruz-esque.  Remember, Ted Cruz also required a run-off.

• Stovall not polled -- Cornyn's numbers are even worse when you realize that the second credible opponent in the race wasn't even included in the poll.  We suspect Stovall takes the overwhelming majority of the 'Undecided' vote in this poll.  That being said, Stovall's dishonest temper tantrum in response to this poll isn't helpful.

• Cornyn's ineffective advertising -- Since October, it has been impossible to listen to Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh's radio shows without constant ads from Cornyn.  He's still stuck at 43.  Personally, we wonder if Cornyn's incessant commercial blitzkrieg has backfired.

• Money is irrelevant
  
• Attorney General's race -- Given that folks incurred the cost to conduct this poll, we wish they'd polled the AG race as well.

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Read our endorsement for Stockman here; donate to the campaign here.

Rick Perry quotes Rush Limbaugh

Last night, in discussing Obamacare, Governor Perry made the following remark:

[Author's note: To our knowledge, this is the only video currently online with the quote in it; it contains other highlights]

Good for Governor Perry.  Running away from Rush Limbaugh is one of the stupidest, most self-destructive, things Republicans do.  It's refreshing to see a prominent Republican do the opposite.

Ted Cruz Wraps Up with El Rushbo

Following his 21 hour defense of liberty, Senator Ted Cruz spoke with Rush:



Highlights:

• Too many political reporters act like Hollywood gossip columnists.

• The media's goal is to confuse people.

• It's not about me, it's about listening to the American people to stop the Obamacare train wreck.

• The pundits on television don't even know the day of the week the Senate GOP meets. 
• "The single biggest surprise of being in D.C. is the defeatist attitude among Senate Republicans."

• All we have to do is make it politically harder to do the wrong thing than the right thing

Pro-Abortion Thugs Terrorize Austin Coffee Shop

Recently, NARAL Texas attempted to solicit a contribution from Summermoon Coffee, a South Austin establishment; Summermoon declined in the following e-mail:

To Whom It May Concern,
Please take us off your list of contacts. We are Pro Life and do not believe in the killing of precious innocent babies. I would recommend watching this video to put it in perspective. www.180movie.com
Thanks,
Amanda Terry

As you can see, Summermoon included a link to the short pro-life film 180.

In response, NARAL posted to their Facebook page:

Did you know that Summermoon Coffee Bar is an anti-choice coffee shop in south Austin? When asked to make a donation to our silent auction, they sent us a disturbing video comparing abortion to the Holocaust claiming to be "pro-life." We all might want to think twice before walking into this place.

Then the Burnt Orange Report chimed in:

Long story short: if you're looking for a caffeine fix in the South Austin area and you aren't interested in supporting a business that is fervently anti-choice and actively involved in spreading offensive propaganda, find another coffee shop.

So far, so good; NARAL and Burnt Orange Report have a right to let politics intrude on their purchases.  Cahnman's Musings supports Chick-fil-a and attempts to avoid Starbucks for the same reason.  What happened next, however, was yet another revealing moment from the pro-abortion left.

The totalitarians came out in force.  They attacked Summermoon's website to the point that it had to shut down.  The comments on Summermoon's Facebook page were equally threatening:

Tressa Barron:

It's one thing that they're anti-choice, but a whole extra layer of disgust that they'd compare abortion with the holocaust and send a video instead of simply declining to donate to NARAL. Shame shame shame. That's no way for an Austin establishment to behave...

 Nowanna Tellya:

 why get coffee from misogynists when there are so many other options?

Derek Amarpreet Whitman:

Anti-choice suckers.

This is a longstanding technique of the left.  It's reputational terrorism.  It's designed to pummel you in the court of public opinion until you decide 'I don't want any trouble,' and shut up.

It's the same thing they've done to advertisers for Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh in the past; then again, what would you expect from people who chant 'Hail Satan' and 'Tampons are a woman's right'?!?

On September 6th, pro-lifers will express their appreciation for Summermoon Coffee.  Cahnman's Musings will be there.  This act of reputational terrorism will not stand....

(h/t Bryan Preston)

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Update: On a related note, it looks like the White House is also engaged in pro-abortion trolling.

There's an organized effort to Normalize Pedophilia

I intended to discuss this story from the U.K. Guardian last Saturday, but didn't have time before I went into work.  Today, Rush discussed it.  I second everything Rush said, then I'll add some historical context at the end that will shock you:



Highlights:

• There's an organized effort to normalize pedophilia.

• Try to recall your first reaction to gay marriage.

• They'll portray opposition to pedophilia as an antiquated morality.

• "Just another sexual orientation."
• "Loving and Natural."
• "Pedophiles are just wired differently."

• There an active campaign in Canada to label pedophilia a distinct sexual orientation.

• "You know who's gonna fall right into line on this?!?  College Kids."
• Me: YUP!!!

• When Rush mentions that 'people warned us about this' back when the push to redefine marriage began, he's partially right.  Actually, only one person had the guts.  His name was Rick Santorum.

Back in September, I linked to a story from my buddy All-American blogger.  He details the history of this 'movement.'  The (very) short version of it is that back in the 1970's the pro-homosexual and pro-pedophilia movement were one and the same; they were de-linked in the 1980's when the activists realized it would be easier to sell the public on homosexuality first then return to pedophilia later.

All-American Blogger's entire piece is must read, you can find it here.

Update: Another blogger pal, Jenny Erickson at Cafe' Mom wrote about this last week; I think she's being waaaaaaaaaay too optimistic (just read some of the comments on her post) and that she underestimates the tenacity of the folks were up against.

Update II: Based on some of the comments I've seen on Facebook, I would like to explicitly point out that the movement to normalize pedophilia predates Obama by a long, long, time. 

Update III: A third blogger pal, Warner Todd Huston, also wrote about the U.K. Guardian story last week; he links to this year-old story from Gawker.

Update IV: LifeSiteNews has more here.

Mission #2: The Sexual Counterrevolution

"he that keepeth company with harlots spendeth his substance." Proverbs 29:3 

Since Tuesday night, a lot of ink has been spilled about how voters chose free stuff in servitude over self-reliance in freedom; Rush said it best when he said "people voted for Santa Claus."

That description is true, as far as it goes, but it misses the core.  Free stuff is the symptom, promiscuity is the disease.  People voted to maintain their sex lives.

Since the dawn of time, Utopians have used free love as a recruiting tool.  For obvious reasons, consequence free sex with multiple partners (of either gender) makes Heaven on Earth an easy sell.  As I wrote back in June, this was a deliberate strategy of Obama's Marxist fore-bearers.

But it gets worse: Sexual Promiscuity is very, very expensive (*).  That's where free stuff comes into play.  Chasing the sexual utopian dragon has many direct costs, but the most evil and insidious opportunity cost of sexual utopianism is that it undermines the discipline necessary to delay gratification.  Capitalism is based on delayed gratification.  Unfortunately, you will never sell delayed gratification and patient acquisition to a population obsessed with its next orgasm.

That's why America desperately needs a sexual counterrevolution.  The sexual revolution was a direct antecedent to the dumbing down of America's population.  We won't be able to reverse the dumbing down until we reverse the sexual revolution; that reversal needs to come from our churches, culture, and media.

Here's why there's hope: what Marxists will never tell you is that while yes, promiscuity can lead to lots of sex, most of that sex is bad.  As someone who grew up around leftists, and as a repentant little whore myself, I cannot overemphasize how much time liberals spend complaining about bad sex.  By contrast, married conservative Christians have the best sex.  Leftists might be able to muddy the waters on gross diseases and poorly timed conceptions, but they can't defend bad sex.

You can read my mini-manifesto on this topic here.

* Author's note: I learned this lesson the hard way.

Why the RealClearPolitics Average Is Not Reliable

For those of you unaware, Real Clear Politics is a website that tracks polling data and aggregates news.  It's claim to fame is a feature, known as the RCP Average, that taken the mean of all public pollingf over the past 2-3 weeks.  Unfortunately, the RCP average is very easy for corrupt polling outlets to manipulate.

As Rush has pointed out for years, a lot of polling is designed to shape public opinion, not reflect it.  This longstanding problem has gotten much worse in the 2012 cycle.  As long as 1-2 crap polls come out per month, it throws the RCP average off.

For example, the current RCP average has Obama up by 2.7.  That average, however, includes this garbage poll from NBC News/Wall St. Journal and this craptacular specimen from Pew; Breitbart News demolishes the first poll here and the second one here.  Once those two polls are removed, Obama's lead plummets to 1.2%.

This means that, out of the past 9 public polls, 2 crap polls are responsible for 55% of Obama's lead in the RCP Average; this phenomenon has been going on for years.

So, what should you do?!?

Personally, I stick with Rasmussen.  They were the most accurate pollster in 2004, 2006, 2008, and (most importantly) 2010.  Scott Rasmussen was the first pollster to recognize how the Tea Party has altered the American Electorate for the foreseeable future.  Wisconsin is the first place we've seen these results.  As Scott Rasmussen explained at RightOnline, we should expect similar results as long as the interrelated issues of unemployment and debt drive the conversation.

This is not a personal attack on RCP.  RCP isn't corrupt.  RCP's methodology, however, leaves them vulnerable to the corruption of others.

RightOnline 2012: The Biggest Takeaway

I attended the RightOnline 2012 Conference this past weekend.  It was awesome.  We're winning and we just need to keep going.

I sat down to write a review of the conference, but there were 25 separate items I wanted to discuss.  A detailed review isn't feasible, especially with Biblical Prophecies coming true in today's headlines.  Instead, I wanted to share a strategic observation on the broad trends we're facing.

The big takeaway is that we're winning.  The most important action we can take is to continue doing exactly what we're doing.  This process is a long-haul, but as long as we maintain consistent, persistent, pressure, we'll win.

In terms of substance, Scott Rasmussen was the most important person I had a chance to speak with.  His point was simple: the public outrage is real, it began with TARP and was solidified by Obamacare, and it has transformed the electorate.  Even when they don't follow politics closely, the public instinctively understands the size of the problem, and they're open to big solutions.  The Wisconsin recall results confirmed something I've suspected for awhile.  Scott Rasmussen's analysis, in both public remarks and our personal conversations,  was further proof.  Update:  Rasmussen Speech Here

One modest caveat is that, in the realm of public opinion, results are more important than theory.  As Scott Rasmussen said "people don't care about limited government, they care about the type of society limited government will create."  Although the public in Wisconsin supported Scott Walker in the Abstract, it wasn't until their property taxes went down that Scott Walker won the election.

Thank you to Eliza Vielma, the new media person at AFP-Texas, who is the main reason I was able to go.  Thank you also to Peggy Venable, AFP-Texas State Director, for much the same reason.  Thank you to AFP National, and Stephanie Fontenot in particular, for the work you did to pull this off.  Thank you also to Cindy Malette, formerly of AFP-Texas, for pestering me to blog for two years before the message sunk in.  Finally, of course, thank you to God, because without him, the rest of this is irrelevant.

Finally, I want to close by mentioning Andrew Breitbart.  For obvious reasons, Andrew was a major topic of conversation this weekend.  Andrew's #1 objective in this world was to empower the rest of us to take on Hollywood and the corrupt media.  Just today, Chris Cilizza of Washington Post came up with this whiny crybaby piece, that Rush brilliantly destroyed.  That Cilizza piece proves how much trouble the left is in.  The best way to honor Andrew Breitbart is to continue doing exactly what we're doing.  We're winning, and as long as we stay in the fight, we're gonna kick their ass.

Update: Tom Tillison has more.

Ronald Reagan and the Power of Truth

Yesterday was the twenty-fifth anniversary of Ronald Reagan's Tear Down this Wall Speech:

I had the opportunity to hear Peter Robinson, the Reagan aide who drafted the speech, discuss its Genesis today in Austin.  I was struck, overwhelmingly, by the powerful simplicity of truth.

The Book of Ephesians calls God's word "the sword of the spirit" (6:17 KJV); Psalm 119 makes clear that His word is Truth.  Through God, truth frequently acts as a sword.  Ronald Reagan understood this reality.

The struggle between Freedom and Totalitarianism in Geopolitics is an extension of the struggle between Good and Evil that began in the Garden of Eden.  As our founders understood, man's freedom derives from the fact that God created us in His image.  Totalitarianism, like all Satanic Ideologies, can only exist on top of lies.  Truth slays lies, which is why totalitarians intimidate people against truth.  On a related note, this is why the American left is so desperate to put Rush Limbaugh out of business.

Robinson spoke today about the speech-writing trip he took to Berlin in advance of the President.  While in Berlin, the State Department bureaucracy, content to manage lies, told Robinson the residents of Berlin didn't really care about the Wall.  In contrast, an actual resident of Berlin, upon being asked about the Wall, indignantly asked Robinson: "My sister lives a few miles that way [pointing at the Wall] and I haven't seen her in 20 years; how do you think I feel about the Wall?!?"

When Andrew Breitbart died, I wrote:

Andrew Breitbart stood for Truth.  We have to restore that truth.  We have to restore the truth about God.  We have to restore the truth about History.  We have to restore the truth in our Culture.  We have to restore the truth about our Economy.  We have to restore the truth about our Government.  The truth can be terrifying, especially at first, but the lies will kill you.

Truth is simple, even though it's often not easy.  Totalitarians, like all minions of the Great Deceiver, disugise truth and intimidate those who seek and speak it.  Ronald Reagan's stunning political success resulted from his personal grounding in Truth.  Not surprisingly, Jesus Christ said it best: "And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. (John 8:32 KJV)"

The American Electorate has Changed; Scott Walker is Proof!!!

The American Electorate has changed over the past five years.  The 2010 Tea Party Landslide was the first revelation of this fact.  Gov. Scott Walker's easy win Tuesday proves the depth of this shift.

The American People are indignant that the people who created this mess are asking for more power to continue the scam.  The American people understand that we've been sold a bill of goods over the past 100 years and that the game can no longer continue.  Prior to 1913, Federal Spending never exceeded 5% of GDP (except for the middle of the Civil War) and we need to return to those levels.  The individual bogeymen vary, from Federal housing policy, to The Federal Reserve, to Public Sector Unions, but their shared root cause is big government aggrandizing and enriching itself at the expense of decent people.  The American people understand the cause of this mess.

The American people have never been fans of gauzy, go-along to get-along centrism.  The Perot movement, which emerged in 1992, was a reaction to the Bush 41 administration's aggrandizement of Washington D.C. at the expense of Americans.  As Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen detail in their book Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking our Two-Party System:

Perot-era populism -- sparked by President George H.W. Bush's broken promise of 'no-new taxes' -- has never really left our politics....The resurgence of populism we are experiencing today is a continuation of the populist uprising of 1992 in the same way that World War II was a continuation of World War I, with a period in between that appeared quieter than it really was.  Also, just like the World Wars, the second act of the Perot-era is likely to provoke far more turbulence and far bigger changes on the political battlefields of 21st-century America. (47)

TARP followed by Obamacare forced decent people to stop complaining and become active.  Now that we're active, it's becoming increasingly easier to draw the widest possible contrast between decent people and the Left.

Madison is the New Democratic Core, which means that the Democrats are down to hippies and Union Thugs.  As Michael Barone has documented, decent people have grown to despise Democrat client groups. This shift is why historical modeling is inadequate to understand what's coming in November.  The lies of the past 100 years have been exposed, and the American people are awake.  This election isn't just about replacing Barack Obama, it isn't even just about repealing the excesses of the past decade; this election is about dismantling the lies of the past 100 years and restoring who we really are.

Think big people.  As Rush has explained for years, "Conservatism Wins, Every Time It's Tried."  Wisconsin is proof.

The Perils of Sexual Self-Identification

The recent flare-up of the homosexual 'marriage' debate, following on the heels of the phony 'War on Women,' brings into the political sphere something that bothers me about our culture.  Far too many of us elevate our sex life into the core of our being; whether you call yourself a homosexual, a slut feminist, or a pick-up artist, the effect is the same.  It's VERY dangerous; sex is NOT supposed to be the core of who you are as a person.

Once sex becomes your primary area of self-identification, you've already lost; a good sex life is the byproduct of a good life in general.  Even in our screwed-up culture, people notorious for their sexual antics are known primarily for their accomplishments in other areas: Tiger Woods is an athlete, Motley Crue are rock stars, heck Genghis Khan conquered half the World.

When you pursue the physical act as an end in itself, bad things happen.  I've said it before, I'll say it again: The Summer of Love (which wasn't all it was cracked up to be), and Woodstock (that either) is ALWAYS followed by the Manson Murders, Altamont, and Kent State.

At the beginning of his Evil Empire speech in 1983, Ronald Reagan asked:

Are we to believe that something so sacred can be looked upon as a purely physical thing with no potential for emotional and psychological harm?

While sex can be a fun, naughty, or taboo topic of conversation, people who talk about nothing but sex are just as tiresome as any other one trick pony.  I've never met a Christian who talks about Jesus as much as some so-called feminists talk about their vagina's.  Too put it in terms that even a three year old (or those of you in Rio Linda) can understand, ding-dongs and hoo-hoos are only one component of the human existence.

David Dewhurst: The George Pataki of Texas

"Announcer: This is an official warning to all Texas conservatives. Your TV is about to be jammed with political commercials, from politicians you’ve never heard of, making empty promises you’ve heard too many times before. So how do you sort through it all? Don’t just listen to what they say; look at what they’ve done. In the race for U.S. Senate, only one candidate has balanced five budgets without raising taxes, and cut taxes 51 times. It’s Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst. Only one candidate repeatedly cut spending and passed strong pro-life legislation – David Dewhurst."

- David Dewhurst Campaign Radio Ad

As the U.S. Senate race in Texas heats up, I keep hearing this radio ad from Lt. Governor/U.S. Senate candidate David Dewhurst.  The ad, has aired the past few days on Glenn and Rush's radio shows, is bullcrap; Lt. Governor Dewhurst is claiming credit he does not deserve for Governor Rick Perry's record.  As Lt. Governor, David Dewhurst has led on nothing and obstructed much.

I want to draw a simple analogy for east coast political reporters: David Dewhurst is the George Pataki of Texas politics.  Pataki, the former governor of New York State, is best known for claiming credit for Rudy Giuliani's record.  As someone with roots in both New York and Texas, I can attest to the parallels.

It's an open secret in Austin that Dewhurst and Pataki are good friends.  Indeed, I first met Dewhurst at a 2010 event he did WITH Pataki.  The level of contempt David Dewhurst and George Pataki hold for regular people is palpable.

The best way to understand David Dewhurst and George Pataki is to look at their respective records' when Rick Perry and Rudy Giulani are taken out of the picture.  Between 2003 and 2006, Dewhurst repeatedly advocated increasing taxes.  In 2011, Dewhurst was all over the place regarding Texas' rainy day fund.  George Pataki's record as Governor of New York was similarly atrocious.  These are only a few examples.

Some people get into politics for principle, most get in for power.  Rick Perry and Rudy Giulani are courageous reformers; David Dewhurst and George Pataki were crony capitalists in the right place at the right time.  Rick Perry and Rudy Giulani have taken on special interests and won; David Dewhurst and George Pataki have cut deals with those special interests.  If you can't resist special interests in Austin, what makes you think you can resist them in Washington D.C.?!?

Based on his pathetic record David Dewhust does not belong anywhere near the U.S. Senate, but the character issues revealed by his willingness to claim credit for Rick Perry's accomplishments takes the cake....

Why Obama Just CAN'T Win

"Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

Saul Alinsky, Rules For Radicals, Rule #1

This is textbook Alinsky.

Barack Obama is in much worse shape politically than most people (with the notable exception of Rush) realize; he cannot win this election.  He can no longer even keep it close enough to steal.  That's why he's deliberately sowing chaos.

Most people, even on our side, have no clue just how much trouble Obama really is in.  This purpose of this piece is to present the evidence.  What's surprised me in working on this piece is how strong the case Obama can't win really is, and how much I had to cut.

Just a reminder, to win a Presidential election, you need 270 electoral votes.

I base my understanding of Barack Obama's efforts on his publicly announced re-election strategy.  Also, this fact-free video from Obama's campaign backs up the understanding from the Jay Cost piece.  The short version is this: Obama plans to win re-election by boosting turnout among minorities (especially Hispanics) and the Jon Stewart crowd and mitigating his losses among everyone else.

The biggest problem with Obama's publicly announced re-election strategy is that it's never been done before.  As Cost notes:

So this would be a path to 270 electoral votes that might include Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia (which historically have been Republican) but not Ohio (a quadrennial swing state) or even Pennsylvania (which historically has been Democratic).

That's not to say it's impossible, but it seems highly improbable.   Also, as this video from the RNC makes clear, the state by state polling data for Obama in the key states STINKS.

Finally, whatever flaws he might have, Karl Rove has been doing an excellent job tracking Obama's fundraising and it also stinks.  As Karl observes:

Last July, President Obama's campaign announced that it had raised an average of $29 million in each of the previous three months for itself and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). I was only mildly impressed. After all, that was well below the $50 million a month needed to reach the campaign's goal of a $1 billion war chest for the 2012 race.

Seven months later, I'm even less impressed. Through January, the president has raised an average of $24 million a month for his campaign and the DNC.

By themselves the interrelated issues of Economy/Bailouts/Debt/Spending/Health Care and Obama's Catastrophic Foreign Policy nearly doom Obama; those broad national issues are anvils around Obama's ankles.  Beyond national issues and campaign inside baseball, however, certain actions by the Obama administration alienate key voter groups in key states in a way that makes it impossible for Obama to get to 270 electoral votes.

Consider the following seven examples:

Catholic Church and Obama's War on Faith:
I've already discussed this issue at length.  The short version is that Catholics are almost perfectly distributed across traditional swing states in a way that alienating them does unique damage.

Beyond the simple distribution of where Catholics live and vote, alienating Catholics is stupid from an ideological perspective.  Despite Chris Matthews' ill-informed suppositions, most Catholics aren't particularly conservative.  As Jonathan Last notes: Catholics "tend to be politically liberal and socially cautious. If they were less holy men, stauncher conservatives would call them squishes."  Remember, Obama won Catholics in 2008 and many Catholic Institutions supported Obamacare in 2010.

Finally, for a campaign that has based so much of it's publicly announced strategy around courting Hispanics, it's worth noting that Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic.

Israel:
Anyone who thinks Obama's shameful treatment of Israel won't cost him significant votes missed the special election in New York City last September.  In that election, Republican Bob Turner won in large part due to opposition to the Obama administration's Israel policy.  As the Jerusalem Post reported at the time:

The district, well known for being a Democratic stronghold, was captured by the Republicans after their successful efforts to reframe the race as being an opportunity to “send a message” to Washington – and to tap into Jewish discontent with the US president’s Middle East policies. 

...

“In Tuesday’s special election, Jewish voters supported the Republican candidate by a clear, but not massive majority. That vote evidences a maturity of judgment as opposed to robotic partisanship.

“Thus, unlike some other minorities who instinctively vote for the candidate of their race or religion, irrespective of whether they are the best candidate,” Zell concluded, “the Jews in NY-9 voted on principle and ignored our common religion with Mr. Weprin to support the candidate who will support Israel most effectively.”

In that election, Turner was supported by former NYC Mayor Ed Koch (D).   Since then, Prof. Alan Dershowitz, another prominent liberal Jew, has turned on Obama's allies at Media Matters.

Alienating Jewish voters over Israel hurts Obama in Florida and Pennsylvania.  Based on the economy alone, I doubt Obama can win Florida; Obama's treatment of Israel seals this deal.  Remember, liberal Jews in Palm Beach county were at the center of the 2000 election controversy.  There are over 600,000 Jews living in Florida and a modest shift in their voting, on top of the general disgust that exists with Obama over the economy, makes winning Florida damn near impossible for Obama.  We'll cover Pennsylvania in more detail next.

Energy Development:
Barack Obama's refusal to permit energy development hurts him in traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio and even less-traditional swing states like Virginia.  Obama's opposition to energy development makes an abstract argument against Obama's economic policies VERY concrete.  While Obama said some nice things about natural gas in his State of the Union, SOTU speeches are notoriously meaninglessness.

Energy issues are unique in that they give Republican Governors like John Kasich in Ohio and Bob McDonnell in Virginia an opportunity to kick the crap out of Obama in local media.  As gas prices continue to rise and employment continues to stagnate, the daily contrast between Obama and the Goverors of these key states can only hurt Obama.

Immigration:
As noted above, mobilizing Hispanics is a key element of Obama's publicly announced strategy.  Obama needs Hispanics to show up and vote for him in droves if he hopes to win Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.  Unfortunately, for Hispanics, Obama has been all over the place on Immigration reform.  The biggest problem with Obama is that he promised the moon to Hispanics on Immigration and he's failed to deliver or even fight particularly hard.  Most people can live with a failure to deliver, but they can't stand being pandered to insincerely.

Obama is correct when he states that deportations are at an all time high, but he fails to mention that the bulk of those deportations are from illegals who are basically harmless. Meanwhile Obama hasn't done squat about the Drug Cartels that threaten the daily physical safety of Hispanics.  As I noted in this space a few weeks ago, Obama's failures have created an opportunity for Republicans among South Texas Hispanics.  I strongly suspect a similar dynamic exists in other states.

Medical Marijuana:
This is the most politically stupid thing the Obama administration has done.  As the Cost piece above states, Obama's publicly announced re-election strategy is dependent on heavy turnout among the Jon Stewart crowd.  In February 2009, Obama's Justice Department promised to end raids on Medical Marijuana clinics.  In 2011, Obama broke that promise.  This is a surprisingly big issue in Colorado, and it antagonizes Obama's biggest supporters.  On Medical Marijuana, Obama has treated the Jon Stewart crowd the same way he's treated Hispanics on Immigration.

This is the one issue I've seen anger my Obamabot friends.  I don't know how many of these folks will vote for a Republican, but considering how few of them follow politics closely, it wouldn't surprise me if a substantial number of them pull a classic stoner move and forget to vote.  Could you pick a stupider issue on which to alienate the Jon Stewart crowd?!?

North Carolina:
Barack Obama's publicly stated strategy hinges on North Carolina.  All the "smart" people (who aren't really that smart) say the election will come down to North Carolina.  That's why the Demorcat Party convention is in Charlotte.

Unfortunately, for Obama, he won North Carolina by less than 14,000 votes in 2008.  The Democrat Governor has chosen not to run for re-election in the face of persistently high unemployment.  And finally, Obama's violent allies in Occupy Wall St have promised to make their presence felt at the Democrat party convention; how'd that work out in 1968?!?

The conventional wisdom that the 2012 election will come down to North Carolina is painfully weak and Obama can't win without it.

Wisconsin:
While the so-called smart people are telling us the election will come down to North Carolina (traditional Republican state), the truth is that this election will come down to Wisconsin (traditional Democrat state).  Over the past year, Wisconsin has been the most important state to watch in politics.  Governor Scott Walker, elected in 2010, has enacted sweeping structural reforms to fix his state Government.  As a result, he now faces a recall from the state's public employee unions.  As the American Thinker reports:

So is the left winning there?  Wisconsin is a left-leaning state, the sort whose general support Democrats need if they are going to rule America.  If Democrats fail in these recall elections, then the left will have suffered a strategic loss which may unravel its long dominance of American politics.

....

The efforts to stop Walker's reforms include: (1) Democrat state senators fleeing to Chicago, that Mecca of Good Government, to deny their chamber a quorum, (2) mobs of angry state employees trying to bully legislators, (3) trying to defeat Judge Prosser to get a more favorable judge on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, (4) trying to recall enough Republican state senators to give back control to Democrats, (5) litigating the new labor law as "unconstitutional" and failing, and now, (6) trying to recall the governor, lieutenant governor, and three Republican state senators.

The left has pulled out all the plugs to thwart Governor Walker.  In the recall election for six Republican state senators last August, the left spent about $30 million, much of it from outside the state.

....

Most of all, if the left throws every single weapon it can at Wisconsin Republicans and yet cannot prevent a conservative agenda from becoming law, then the left must know that it is vulnerable everywhere to conservatives who do not back down.  If this last desperate effort of the power-mongers of leftism fails, then their whip may become a wet noodle, and the whole corrupt syndicate of leftism may completely unravel.  Watch Wisconsin.

 The American Thinker piece captures most of what you need to know about Wisconsin.  I'll only add a few points.  First, the union assault on the (repeatedly demonstrated) will of Wisconsin voters alienates the broad apolitical middle.  Second, because the unions have forced Tea Party groups in Wisconsin to stay in the fight, Tea Party groups in Wisconsin are becoming incredibly battle hardened.  Finally, by the time November rolls around, the contrast between Governor Walker's successful reforms and Barack Obama's failure will be obvious.

While it's premature to make definitive statements about November, early signs are very positive.

What does this all mean?!?
In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes.  He won't win Indiana (11 EV, 40.1% Job Approval).  That means he caps out at 354 EV.

From those 354 EV, I've identified major trouble for him among voter groups that are essential to his publicly announced strategy in Wisconsin (10 EV, 47.4% JA), Florida (29 EV, 43.6% JA), Pennsylvania (20 EV, 45.0% JA), Ohio (18 EV, 42.1% JA), Virginia (13 EV, 44.5% JA), Colorado (9 EV, 40.4% JA -- ouch), New Mexico (5 EV, 41.7% JA), Nevada (6 EV, 41.3% JA), and North Carolina (15 EV, 43.7% JA).

Even without including Michigan (16 EV, 48.1% JA) or Iowa (6 EV, 45.6% JA) in the Republican column, that leaves Obama with 229 EV.  You need 270 Electoral votes to win.  For those of you in Rio Linda, 270 is a bigger number than 229.

Barack Obama already knows everything I've outlined in this piece.  He has access to much more sophisticated polling data than I do.  That's why his administration and Occupy Wall St is deliberately sowing chaos.

Conservatives need to understand reality and act within it.  Stop worrying about losing this election and start planning for assuming power amidst massive chaos.

It's really that simple.

Update:  My dumb ass forgot to factor in Electoral Vote Re-Apportionment from the Census in that analysis: subtract another 11 EV from Obama.  I got it right the first time.