Friday, April 17, 2020

The First Mover Opportunity of a Lifetime

"[R]edeeming the time, because the days are evil."
Ephesians 5:16

We started writing this at 8:48 AM.  The Governor's hyped "Opening Texas" announcement is in a few hours.  We'll keep expectations low.

Obviously, there's been a LOT written about the devastation government mandated hostage at home polices have wrought.  We agree with 80 to 90% of it.  Another aspect, however, has gone largely unremarked.

The opportunity Texas can seize going first.

Depending on how you measure it, Texas is either the tenth or the eleventh largest economy in the world.  That's quite the wallop.  Global implications abound.

(What starts here changes the world, etc.)

Decisions made in the next few weeks will impact capital flows for a generation.  Major moves are inevitable.  Once those moves happen, however, things are likely to stay that way for a long time.

The implications, when you're already #10 or #11 globally, are obvious.

Equally obvious, however, is that this must be done sustainably.  In other words, responsibly.  Otherwise, we're handing ammunition to our opponents.

North Texas financial analyst Kevin Freeman addressed the 'how-to's' earlier this week.  It's an almost hour long presentation, much of which is outside the scope of this website.  For those who are so inclined, they can view the whole program here.

That being said, the biggest takeaway is that protecting the vulnerable and quarantining our entire society are not the same thing.  The former can be much more targeted.  The latter is (putting it mildly) counterproductive.  Just follow a genuinely data driven approach.

To which this author would add: Avoid large crowds for a few more weeks.

If we can follow those fairly obvious guidelines, the opportunity is immense.

Bottom Line: Carpe diem.

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