Budget Hole Grows Deeper

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."

Ezekiel 14:13

Yowza:

It’s the beginning of another month, which as of late has meant another report from the comptroller’s office showing a decline in sales tax collection in Texas compared to last year.

On Tuesday, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said state sales tax revenue totaled $2.67 billion in June, 6.5 percent less than in June 2019.

Sales taxes remitted to the state in June consist mostly of taxes collected by businesses in May.

“The decline in state sales tax collections was driven principally by steep drops in remittances from oil- and gas-related sectors,” said Hegar. “Collections from the construction and amusement service sectors were also sharply down.”

The state’s sales tax is the biggest source of revenue for the state government—accounting for more than 57 percent of Texas’ total tax collections.

Bottom Line: Budget cuts, they are a-comin'!!!!

Good Riddance to Ryan Sitton

"He who walks with wise men will be wise,
But the companion of fools will be destroyed."
Proverbs 13:20

Government-mandated production limits are dead in Texas (for the time being), but gol-ly did some true colors get revealed:

But the discussion about prorationing amounted to hardly anything other than politics, Sitton said. Before Tuesday's meeting, Sitton wrote a post on his personal website titled "Politics win, Texans lose." He expressed similar sentiments on Twitter.

"I wish I could explain why so many Texans will lose their jobs while oil production drops in the US worse than anywhere else," Sitton tweeted, "but politics beats data, so there are no answers. Just 'free market.'"

Sitton's full piece is here.  We recommend you read the whole thing.  Relevant sample:

Instead, the discussion at the RRC devolved into a philosophical “free market” discussion versus a fact-based, data-driven discussion. I worked to focus on the data, follow the law, and quantify the reality of hundreds of thousands of Texas energy workers losing their jobs and businesses. Political groups, representing oil interests from all over the world worked to keep the debate from even happening.

The whole thing sounds like Franklin Roosevelt, circa 1935.

But here's the funny thing: We've never actually supported Sitton.  He was the establishment guy in 2014.  We voted for Mark Miller that fall.  While we certainly did intend to vote for him this fall, that became moot after he lost his primary.

Apparently, he didn't lose that primary a moment too soon.

Adios muchacho.

Bottom Line:  Honestly, it's astonishing we even had to have this conversation.  Government mandated crude oil production caps help nothing.  But at least the elected official who pushed this policy will be out of office soon.

Texas Sales Tax Revenue Down ALMOST 10%

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."
Ezekiel 14:13

HOLY SHI[well, you know]:

Just in: @Glenn_Hegar announces state sales tax revenue totaled $2.58B in April — 9.3% less than April 2019.

Hegar's office says it's the steepest decline since January 2010. #txlege pic.twitter.com/EvrzffXKp3

— Cassi Pollock (@cassi_pollock) May 1, 2020

Wow, that's bad.

Obviously, this website doesn't really care about government revenue. We generally support government having less money. Wasteful spending and all that.

Unfortunately, sales tax revenue is a pretty good proxy for total economic activity.  A 9.3% drop is bad.  Really bad.

There's no easy way out of this.  At a minimum, we need to return decision making to businesses, families, and individuals.  Blunt government force will only make a bad situation worse.  Also, having lobbyists pick winners and losers probably isn't a good way to manage this alleged "re-opening" process.

Bottom Line: Buckle up....

Did Eric Johnson just throw Clay Jenkins under the bus?!?

"If you instruct the brethren in these things, you will be a good minister of Jesus Christ, nourished in the words of faith and of the good doctrine which you have carefully followed."
1 Timothy 4:6

Well, this is certainly an interesting development:

"As soon as @GregAbbott_TX announced a plan to #OpenTexas, it became my job to help that plan succeed." Superb take from Dallas mayor @Johnson4Dallas

— Mark Davis (@MarkDavis) April 29, 2020

Not sure what to make of this. Obviously, it would be easy to read too much into it. But still.

For infighting to break out between local officials in the same geographic area seems noteworthy.

Then there's this:

No, @Johnson4Dallas and @GregAbbott_TX do not share the same party affiliation. But, they do share the same desire to see Texas regain it's economic strength. We need more of this and less political positioning during this time. https://t.co/U9oBSnfQcL

— Kelly Hancock (@KHancock4TX) April 29, 2020

Bottom Line: This remains a fluid situation. So standard disclaimers obviously apply. Still, this degree of infighting is very, very, interesting.

Will Abbott Ultimately be a Dead Armadillo?!?

"So then, because you are lukewarm, and neither [a]cold nor hot, I will vomit you out of My mouth."
Revelation 3:16

While he is very liberal, former Texas Ag. Commissioner/Syndicated Columnist Jim Hightower once wrote a book about whose title we've been thinking in recent weeks:

There's nothing in the middle of a road but yellow stripes and dead Armadillos.

That's some advice Greg Abbott would be well advised to consider has he moves forward with this rather underwhelming "re-opening."

Because Abbott's already pissed off the stay-home-forever crowd.  Now, he's pissing of a not-insignificant part of his base.  He's creating a rather difficult needle to thread for himself.

If the virus stays reasonably contained, and the Texas economy bounces back in the second half of the year, Abbott might be able to maneuver through.

If both of those things don't happen, however, look out.  Cuz' Abbott's certainly planted a number of seeds in recent months that could germinate over time.  And that's before you get into what Abbott's passivity indicates for next session.

Bottom Line: The thing about trying to be all things to all people...is that you often end up becoming nothing to none.

#TXLEGE: This is what happens when you put Lobbyists in Charge

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Meh:

Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday said he will let the state’s stay-at-home order expire at the end of the month, and allow businesses to begin opening in phases in May.

First to open on Friday: Retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls. But they will only be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. Museums and libraries will also be allowed to open at 25% capacity, but hands-on exhibits must remain closed.

Abbott's order supersedes local orders saying those businesses must remain closed. But the reopenings are optional. Businesses can stay closed if they wish, Abbott said.

At the same time, Abbott said he is holding off on reopening certain businesses for the time being, including barbershops, hair salons, bars and gyms. He said he hopes those businesses can open "on or no later than mid-May."

Blah, blah, blah.

You're welcome to read the Trib's write up in full. There's more discussion on Twitter. But the TL,DR version is that Abbott's so-called "reopening Texas" order is a confused muddle.

Some businesses will be allowed to open under one set of standards this weekend.  Others will be allowed to open in two weeks under another set of standards.  Some businesses that were allowed to open last Friday under one set of standards, will have to adopt another set of standards this coming Friday, and might have to adopt a third set at some point in the coming weeks.  It's all quite confusing.

Of course, this is what happens when you put lobbyists in charge.  Some industries benefit.  Others, not so much.

On a very practical note: We pity anyone in the hospitality industry who has to navigate the line between "bar" and "restaurant."

But hey, as long as it props up the Governor's poll numbers.

Bottom Line: Chronic underperformance cannot continue indefinitely....

Why Abbott Can't Meet his Fundamental Challenge

"A ruler who lacks understanding is a great oppressor,
But he who hates covetousness will prolong his days."
Proverbs 28:16

The Dallas Observer has an interesting write up about regulatory issues related to alcohol sales during the current government mandated shutdowns.  The whole thing is worth your time.  But one passage stands out:

April 17, the governor issued what he touted in national media as the first order reopening any state. He seemed very proud of being first. But as he has done with many issues, such as his alcohol and church service orders, he issues a bold press release that is followed with substantially less than was promised.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

The underlined part is the Greg Abbottest thing that Greg Abbott ever did Greg Abbott.

[Note: Especially because Greg Abbott put lobbyists and campaign contributors in charge of the so-called "re-opening."]

Beyond the specific regulatory issues related to alcohol sales, however, that half-sentence is interesting because it gets to the heart of what's plaguing Abbott: There's no way to make everyone happy.

At no point, certainly as Governor (and probably not as A.G. either), has Greg Abbott ever had to tell anybody "no."  Abbott has been able to give the good ol' boy/bidness-as-usual crowd most of the policy stuff they want, while using Fox News to toss his base empty calories flavored to resemble red meat.  We're rapidly learning that this strategy only works during times of plenty.

During times of scarcity, however, any decisions you make will inevitably piss someone off.  And, at least to this point, Abbott hasn't shown any willingness to do that.  So Abbott punts, and punts, and punts....

But here's the thing about punting: It only works as long as the defense holds up.

Abbott's defense, at least to this point, has always been a strong economy.

He doesn't have that anymore.

Bottom Line:  The diversionary tactics Abbott has used in the past seem, at least so far, to be poorly suited to a bad economy.  Time will tell if that holds up.  If it does, Abbott could be in for a very rough ride over the next few years.

"Operation Save Texas" Moves on to Patrick

"Your princes are rebellious,
And companions of thieves;
Everyone loves bribes,
And follows after rewards.
They do not defend the fatherless,
Nor does the cause of the widow come before them."
Isaiah 1:23

Inbox:

Operation: Save Texas
 Back to Work/Back to Liberty
Phase II
 

Thanks to all who contacted Gov. Abbott in Phase 1 of our “Operation: Save Texas” citizen action plan! If you didn’t get through on the phone, please keep trying! Try every day until you reach a staffer or the voice mail. We had thousands of calls going in yesterday!

Tuesday’s “painful to watch” Abbott press conference was nothing new. His task force is still working on “the plan.”  Missed it? See for yourself by clicking here.

What are other states doing?

Alabama released reopen plans last week. This Friday, Georgia opens these businesses:  gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, barbers, body art studios, nail salons, cosmetologists, hair designers, aestheticians and their respective schools, massage therapists. On Monday 4/27, theaters, private social clubs, and restaurant dine-in services reopen.

Missouri is the first state to file a federal lawsuit against China “for the enormous loss of life, human suffering and economic turmoil experienced by all Missourians from the COVID-19 pandemic that has disrupted the entire world.”  Arkansas, which never had a stay-at-home-order, launched their economic recovery plan on April 18! What do Texans get? Prolonged suffering and loss of liberty!

Don’t you wish our Texas was leading?
Don’t give up! Make some noise!

Phase II | Operation Save Texas

Why are we doing this? 90% of Texans who contacted Grassroots America about getting Texans back to work and back to liberty had NOT called Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, their state legislators, or local officials (Mayor, Council Member, County Judge, County Commissioner)!

We need to fix that! Hurting Texas is depending on YOU!
 

Action #1

As always – with thankful hearts – pray for God’s mercy and protection. Ask Him to turn the hearts of our leaders toward His wisdom because it will always be for our good. Ask Him to bless and multiply your efforts, giving you favor on Action Steps #2 and #3!
 

Action #2

Let Lt. Governor Dan Patrick know that you support getting businesses open, health care services open for all non-COVID-19 patients, Texans back to work, back to church and back to liberty…not in two weeks, not in three weeks – but NOW.

If possible, use every method of communication below for a compounding, multiplier-effect! Remember – they work for you!

Call Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. These numbers were all working at 8 AM this morning:
Lt. Governor Message Line: (512) 463-5342
Lt. Governor Office Line: (512) 463-0001
Lt. Governor’s Chief of Staff, Darrell Davila (public #): (512) 463-0001
Lt. Governor’s Senior Policy Advisor, Sherry Sylvester (public #): (512) 463-2998
Email Lt. Gov. Patrick. Find the form by clicking here.
Email Lt. Gov. Patrick’s Senior Advisor:  Sherry.Sylvester@ltgov.texas.gov
Email Lt. Gov. Patrick’s Chief of Staff: Darrell.Davila@ltgov.texas.gov
Contact on social media:
Facebook @dan.patrick.texas
Twitter @DanPatrick
Instagram @danpatricktexas

Action #3

This step is critical! You must help spread this Call to Action to thousands of Texans!

Obviously, this blog post is how we're doing step three.

Bottom Line: You'll know it's working when he sends out a press release.

(Abbott's Dithering Predictably Begets) "Operation Save Texas"

"Your princes are rebellious,
And companions of thieves;
Everyone loves bribes,
And follows after rewards.
They do not defend the fatherless,
Nor does the cause of the widow come before them."
Isaiah 1:23

The least surprising news of the day:

We have three ACTION STEPS today and will send three more tomorrow! 90% of Texans who have contacted us about getting Texas back to work and back to liberty have NOT called Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, their state legislators, or local officials (Mayor, Council Member, County Judge, County Commissioner). We need to fix that right now – TODAY! Let’s get started! Please take these actions BEFORE the Governor’s 2 PM press conference today! (If you can’t get it all done before 2 PM, do what you can, when you can, but don’t be silent! Hurting Texans are depending on YOU!)   Action #1 As always – with thankful hearts – pray for God’s mercy and protection. Ask Him to turn the hearts of our leaders toward His wisdom because it will always be for our good. Ask Him to bless and multiply your efforts, giving you favor on Action Steps #2 and #3!   Action #2 Let the Governor know that you support getting businesses open, health care services open for non-COVID-19 patients, people back to work, back to church and back to liberty…not in two weeks, but NOW. If possible, use every method of communication below for a compounding, multiplier-effect! Call Governor Abbott. These numbers were all working at 8 AM this morning: (800) 843-5789 - Information and Referral Hotline (for Texas callers) (512) 463-1782 - Opinion Hotline (512) 463-2000 - Office of the Governor Main Switchboard (8:00 AM to 5:00 PM) Email Gov. Abbott. Find the form by clicking here. Email Gov. Abbott’s Chief of Staff:  luis.saenz@gov.texas.gov Contact on social media: Facebook @TexansForAbbott Twitter @GregAbbott_TX Instagram @governorabbott Action #3 This step is critical! You must help spread this Call to Action to thousands of Texans! Forward this email to family, friends, business colleagues – and especially those shut in and out of work – by copying and pasting this link into your own email account. https://mailchi.mp/gawtp/operation-save-texas-phase-one

(WARNING: Do NOT just hit forward! If you do, recipients can unsubscribe you from our list. We can’t do a thing about that. With thousands in our email data base, we cannot contact each one of you about an unsubscribe!)   Silence to an elected official, their staff & campaign consultants  = YOUR approval. I beg you – do not be silent! Texans Must Save Texas – Now! Let’s get to it, Texans! Do these steps and do them with all your heart! We’ll be back with Phase 2 tomorrow morning!

This blog post is, obviously, our method of assisting on #3.

Bottom Line:  As the stakes keep mounting, and as opportunities for genuine leadership keep being missed, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see the citizenry become more assertive.

#TXLEGE: So...yeah...how about cutting spending?!?

"Be diligent to know the state of your flocks,
And attend to your herds;"
Proverbs 27:23

UPDATE:

A futures contract for U.S. crude prices dropped more than 100% and turned negative for the first time in history on Monday, showing just how much demand has collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Doesn't change the original post, it just makes it truer.

--------

Having missed an opportunity last Friday, Texas...hoo boy:

U.S. crude prices plunged to their lowest level in more than 30 years on Monday as traders continue to fret over a slump in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. The price of the nearest oil futures contract, which expires Tuesday, was the hardest hit, detaching from later month futures contracts with a drop of more than 50%. This suggests that some believe there could be a recovery later in the year.

West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tanked 52%, or $9.45, to $8.97 per barrel, the lowest level since 1986.

Brutal.

There's really not a lot to say. Obviously, Texas isn't a one industry state the way it was in the 80's. But there's no way around oil at less than $10.

We are going to have to cut spending on a hitherto unfathomable level. It's inevitable. The money simply doens't exist. The only real question is how to best structure those spending cuts to maximize long-term recovery.

Bottom Line: Next session got a lot more interesting next session.

The First Mover Opportunity of a Lifetime

"[R]edeeming the time, because the days are evil."
Ephesians 5:16

We started writing this at 8:48 AM.  The Governor's hyped "Opening Texas" announcement is in a few hours.  We'll keep expectations low.

Obviously, there's been a LOT written about the devastation government mandated hostage at home polices have wrought.  We agree with 80 to 90% of it.  Another aspect, however, has gone largely unremarked.

The opportunity Texas can seize going first.

Depending on how you measure it, Texas is either the tenth or the eleventh largest economy in the world.  That's quite the wallop.  Global implications abound.

(What starts here changes the world, etc.)

Decisions made in the next few weeks will impact capital flows for a generation.  Major moves are inevitable.  Once those moves happen, however, things are likely to stay that way for a long time.

The implications, when you're already #10 or #11 globally, are obvious.

Equally obvious, however, is that this must be done sustainably.  In other words, responsibly.  Otherwise, we're handing ammunition to our opponents.

North Texas financial analyst Kevin Freeman addressed the 'how-to's' earlier this week.  It's an almost hour long presentation, much of which is outside the scope of this website.  For those who are so inclined, they can view the whole program here.

That being said, the biggest takeaway is that protecting the vulnerable and quarantining our entire society are not the same thing.  The former can be much more targeted.  The latter is (putting it mildly) counterproductive.  Just follow a genuinely data driven approach.

To which this author would add: Avoid large crowds for a few more weeks.

If we can follow those fairly obvious guidelines, the opportunity is immense.

Bottom Line: Carpe diem.

Lubbock Businesses Getting Close to Civil Disobedience

"But Peter and the other apostles answered and said: “We ought to obey God rather than men."
Acts 5:29

Interesting, via. Chad Hasty:



Highlights:

• At least two Lubbock businesses "have spoken to an attorney and are ready to reopen."

• Will take sensible precautions.
• eg. Limiting the # of customers in the store at one time and so-called "social distancing."

• The Lubbock city council is picking winners and losers.
• Big box stores are ok, but small businesses aren't.

• Amarillo is allowing small businesses to operate with sensible precautions.

• It's time to do more.

• "If Amarillo can do it, so can we."

• "This really is a stand that people are making."

Last week, we suggested that lawsuits would soon be appropriate.  What we're seeing in Lubbock is, honestly, further than we would go personally (for now).  However, it's very interesting that others feel this way.

Bottom Line: The status quo can't go on much longer.

#TXLEGE: Chapter 313 should be the FIRST Thing To Go

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Interesting thought from Empower Texans this morning:

 

This is actually a really interesting proposal.  Because schools are still going to be clamoring for more money.  But nobody's going to want to raise taxes on individuals or homeowners.

The truth is that Chapter 313  carve outs don't serve any economic purpose.  They simply reward the people who hire the best lobbyists.  Bonus point: Eliminating chapter 313 would also make the school finance system more efficient over the long term.

Furthermore, it's absolutely true that there's widespread agreement between the left and the right on this subject.  We actually first learned about Chapter 313 from the Texas Observer.  UT professor Nathan Jensen has also done some fantastic work on the subject.

Chapter 313 is a subject that basically lines up all of the honest people across the political spectrum vs. all of the dishonest ones (aka. the overwhelming majority of legislators).

Bottom Line: Even in good times, special interest carve outs are bad policy...but in the coming crunch, there really isn't any excuse.

Why does THE SAME STATE AGENCY handle Corporate Registrations and Elections Administration?!?

"If you see the oppression of the poor, and the violent perversion of justice and righteousness in a province, do not marvel at the matter; for high official watches over high official, and higher officials are over them."
Ecclesiastes 5:8

Without prematurely disclosing details, this author is in the process of forming a for-profit entity.  It is what it is.  Exciting times and all that.

As we go through this process, however, one question lingers: Why does this go through the office of the Secretary of State?!?

Isn't the Sec'y of State the state agency that handles elections?!?

The truth, of course, is that the Secretary of State's office handles both.  But that's a problem (or at least it should be).  When a large bureaucracy is charged with such wildly different responsibilities, we shouldn't be surprised when it handles them poorly.

To be fair, both corporate registrations and elections administration are valid functions of government.  So there's nothing inherently wrong with the state of Texas being involved in these areas.  Whatever historical accident placed those two duties under the same roof, however, illustrates how government works.

Over the past year, the Secretary of State's office has come under considerable criticism.  Much of it valid.  That being said, having gone through the past week an a half, we can't help wondering if maybe that agency is just trying to do too much.

Bottom Line:  When you throw a bunch of different objectives into a bureaucratic hodge-podge, you shouldn't be surprised when it performs at least some of them poorly.

#TXLEGE: Income Tax election is a GIFT to county GOP's (if they take it)

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

We said our piece about the house's income tax prohibition amendment last fall:  There is a loophole in the Texas constitution the legislature should close.  The Democrats success in last year's election raised the level of urgency for closing said loophole.  Furthermore, from a political perspective, this is a vote you want to make the Democrats take.

Thus, good deal to the house's vote on Thursday; the Senate needs to follow suit.

But there's a funny thing about the Texas constitution: Voters have to ratify amendments.

Thus, if they were smart enough to take it, GOP county party organizations would have to opportunity to practice:

• Identifying Supporters
• Hint #1: This is the easiest possible issue on which to draw people in.
• Hint #2: Data.
• Hint #3: Once you've drawn them in on prohibiting a state income tax, they might be willing to listen to you on more difficult issues.
• Hint #4: If you use your shared opposition to a state income tax as the basis to begin a relationship in 2019, they might be willing to listen to you about the presidency in 2020.

• Disseminating a message/Engaging the community
• Hint: It's impossible to know what this means in individual communities, but it's likely to include some combination of local media and informal social networks.

• Forcing Local Democrats to take a position
• Hint: Most Democrat elected officials secretly support a state income tax.  Most Democrat voters DON'T.  Thus, Democrat elected officials should be forced to take a public position.

Such an effort could yield tremendous dividends in (at least) the following counties: Travis, WillCo, Hays, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Harris, Ft. Bend, Webb, Starr, Hidalgo, El Paso.

Some of those are areas that have historically been GOP strengths, but have recently softened.  Some of those have historically leaned GOP, but recently become swing territory.  Even in the deeper blue areas, however, there are intra-D tensions a more nimble GOP could exploit.

You will never have a friendlier issue on which to mount such an effort than opposition to a state income tax.

Bottom Line: The opportunity is there, but it's an open question whether or not anyone will take advantage....

#TXLEGE: Income Tax fight is important Economically (and smart politics)

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

Jeff Leach and Greg Abbott made interesting news this week:

AUSTIN -- Months after Gov. Greg Abbott floated the idea of changing the Texas constitution to eliminate the possibility of a state income tax, a Plano lawmaker has filed a resolution in the Legislature that would do just that.

"We must continue to pursue and advance policies that protect and strengthen the Texas Miracle, starting with ensuring that Texans can keep and control more of their hard-earned tax dollars in their own pockets," State Rep. Jeff Leach said in a news release Tuesday.

He said he wanted to make sure that "Texas taxpayers are protected from the possibility of the creation of a personal income tax - which would have disastrous effects on the future of our great state."

The news release carried a show of support from Abbott.

"Texans know far better than government how to spend their own money," Abbott said in the release. "That's why I applaud Representative Jeff Leach's proposal to amend the Constitution and forever eliminate the possibility of a state income tax. I look forward to working with Representative Leach to ensure Texas remains the best place to live and work."

This is smart.

Substantively,  constitutional prohibition of an income tax makes tremendous sense during a discussion of school finance.  In the past, bad things have happened when the legislature has tried to "solve" school finance.  That's how we ended up with the margins tax in the first place.  We really should constitutionally prohibit the worst tax policy mistake we might be tempted to make.

The politics of this issue are fantastic.  The issue is simple and easy for voters to understand.  Any potential contrast would likely be obvious.

None of the Democrats elected last fall want to take this vote.  Such a vote forces them to choose between their educrat/public sector union coalition and taxpayers.  In other words, Democrats would have to choose between their voters and the people who fund their campaigns.

Bottom Line: You might get long-term certainty on tax policy.  If not, you get a campaign issue.  Either is a win.

#TXSen, #TexasDebate: Three Missed Opportunities for Cruz

"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

Last night's debate was a bad sequel.   Both candidates regressed to stale talking points.  Following a solid opening act, the (likely) final debate was a depressing example of two people talking past each other.  Both get a "C."

Of course, a debate where the candidates hold serve benefits the status quo.  Obviously, Cruz is winning.  In that sense, Cruz accomplished everything he had to accomplish.

Still, Cruz missed several opportunities to turn this race into a blowout:

• Debt -- Perhaps the funniest part of the debate was Bobby Francis pretending to care about the national debt.  Apparently, for Bobby Francis, the national debt justifies an inefficient tax code.  Bobby Francis repeatedly cited the national debt as a reason to oppose the modest tax code streamlining that Congress passed last year.
  
  Cruz responded by talking about the relationship between economic growth and federal revenue.  Specifically, he discussed how a more efficient tax code leads to more revenue.  He's not wrong.  But it's still a complicated argument the average voter doesn't understand.
  
  Imagine, instead, if Cruz said the following: "The reason we have a $21 Trillion debt is not because the American people are taxed too little.  The reason we have a $21 Trillion national debt is because the Federal Government SPENDS TOO MUCH.  As a United States Senator, NOBODY has fought to curtail federal spending harder than I have.  Unfortunately, too many of my colleagues (in both parties) see it differently.  While that is an unfortunate reality, nothing good can come from turning a United States Senate seat over to a Congressman who never met a spending bill he didn't like."
  
  From a policy perspective, such an answer would also account for the fact that government spending stifles economic growth.

• Health Care -- Cruz did an acceptable job pointing out the shortcomings of Bobby Francis' positions, but he continues to underperform on this issue.
  
  Bobby Francis supports government run health care.  Cruz correctly discussed the cost and inevitable rationing of such folly.  Cruz even, correctly, brought up the British National Health Service.  But imagine what could have happened if Cruz had forced Bobby Francis to defend what the British NHS did to Baby Alfie.
  
  Finally, Cruz would have been wise to contrast the opportunities offered by free-market health care vs. Bobby Francis' socialist nightmare.

• #MeToo -- How many times do we have to repeat it?!?  BOBBY.  FRANCIS.  O'ROURKE.  HELD.  A.  CAMPAIGN.  EVENT.  WITH.  BORRIS.  MILES.
  
  Yes, this Borris Miles.
  
  Imagine if, in addition to the answer he gave, Cruz had contrasted how the Texas GOP dealt with Barton/Farenthold with how the D's (incl. Bobby Francis) dealt with Miles/Uresti.  Cruz's answer was fine, but this could have been a knockout blow.  Missed opportunity.
  
  The worst part is that he was asked a direct question.

Bottom Line: It was fine, but it could have been much more.

#atxcouncil: Adler busted Gaslighting about Job Growth

"A false witness shall not be unpunished: and he that speaketh lies, shall perish."
Proverbs 19:9

LOL, via politifact:

Austin’s mayor made a best-in-the-nation claim about local job gains that made us wonder.

Steve Adler, who seeks a second term in November 2018, was asked on KLBJ-AM’s morning May 8, 2018, "Todd and Don Show" about ending "the red tape and paperwork that businesses have to go through just to expand in this city."

Adler replied: "You ought to minimize the bureaucracy as much as you can. But we’re doing something right in this city, you guys have to admit, right? We’re creating more jobs than any other city in the country. We have an economy that’s on fire. I mean, we’re doing something right," Adler said, going on to agree that he also wasn’t trying to take personal credit for the gains.

....

Adler told the morning radio hosts that Austin is creating more jobs than any other U.S. city.

To the contrary, federal figures show the five-county Austin metropolitan area (not Austin alone) trails some other U.S. metros including the No. 1 Midland area for its pace of jobs gained and it lags more than 25 metro areas in raw jobs gained. It would be accurate to say the Austin area lately has enjoyed greater percentage job gains than other metro areas of 1 million residents or more.

We rate this Adler claim False.

[Liberal New Yorker Reporter] Lawrence Wright calls Hispanic Texans "Poor" and "Poorly Educated"

"Speak no more presumptuously: let not arrogancy come out of your mouth: for the Lord is a God of knowledge, and by him enterprises are established."
1 Samuel 2:3

Lawerence Wright is an Austin-based writer for the New Yorker Magazine.  Last summer, he wrote an embarrassingly bad article about the Texas legislature.  He's now written a book expanding on that 2017 article.

This morning, Wright spoke with the Trib:



Wright's performance was as smug and tendentious as one would expect.  He was long on lazy narratives and short on facts.  However, one comment stood out.  At the 34:43 mark, Wright made the following comment about why Hispanic voter turnout in Texas lags Anglos:

Who doesn't vote?!?  It's the young, the poor, and the poorly educated.  And there are a lot of Hispanics in that category.

Well, isn't THAT quite the broad generalization: "You'd behave EXACTLY the way we want you to if you weren't so poor and stupid."

This despite the FACT that, in terms of both economic and educational attainment, Hispanic Texans outperform their peers in states where their voter turnout numbers are higher.

Imagine if a Republican had said that.

The irony, of course, is that Wright's first statement about Hispanic voter turnout being lower because their population is younger is basically accurate.  But Wright couldn't leave it at "young."  He had to take it to "poor" and "poorly educated."

Bottom Line: If you want to know why the "Hispanic voting surge" that Texas Democrats have been banking on for the past decade has yet to materialize, Lawrence Wright's comments this morning would be a good place to start.

Cruz explains the connection between Robin Hood and Confiscatory Taxation

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

BRUTAL:



Highlights:

• "In his opening, Bernie invoked Robin Hood."

• "Robin Hood was 'robbing' the tax collectors, who were collecting too much [sic] taxes from the working men and women, and taking it for the rich."

• "In Bernie's analogy, it is the Democrats who are King John and the Sheriff of Nottingham."

• "Robin Hood is saying: 'Tax collectors, stop hammering the people who are struggling, who are laboring in the fields, who are working; stop taking it to the castle, to give out to your buddies'."

• "The Democrats love corporate welfare."

• "When you have Washington giving out goodies, the big guys do great; it's the little people who hurt."

• "Bernie didn't disagree with what I said...."
• Note: Goes on to make point about big government fueling 'economic inequality.'