Monday, February 17, 2014

Stockman gains 22 points in latest poll; Cornyn well under 50


Human Events commissions a poll in the United States Senate Race:
The No.2 Republican in the Senate is polling below the 50 percent threshold in the party’s March 4 primary that he needs to clear in order to avoid a May 10 runoff, according to a Feb. 10-12 Human Events/Gravis poll of 729 registered Republicans.

Sen. John Cornyn (R.-Texas), the GOP Whip in the upper chamber has the approval 49 percent of those questioned and 43 percent preferred him to main challenger Rep. Stephen E. Stockman (R.-Texas), who polled 28 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the president of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll with both live callers to cell phones and automated calls to landlines. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

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“These are dangerous numbers for Cornyn, because they show that despite his power in the Senate and his familiarity with the voters, he has not yet made the sale,”

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The Cornyn campaign was given the poll results three days before the deadline and asked for comment for this story. Campaign spokesman Drew Brandwie said the campaign would respond, but no response was received.

The other Republicans on primary ballot are: Chris Mapp, Dwayne Stovall, Linda Vega, Curt Cleaver, Reid Reasor and Ken Cope. A run off would between the top two vote getters.

Stockman said he is energized about the primary fight, but he is distressed by the personal attacks from Cornyn’s campaign and an independent political action committee that shares the 45 North Hill Drive address in Warrenton, Va., with a Karl Rove’s American Crossroads Super PAC.

“The Cornyn campaign must have inside poll numbers that scare them,” the congressman said. “They are throwing everything at me, including things I did 20 years ago, before I became a Christian.”

Donny Ferguson, a spokesman for the Stockman campaign, said “The buzzards are circling around Cornyn’s campaign office. A runoff election is a death sentence for an incumbent.”

Stockman only started his campaign less than 90 days ago and is growing rapidly, he said.

“This is why Cornyn refuses to release his internal poll numbers,” he said.

“The only thing holding Congressman Steve Stockman back is that 55 percent of Republican primary voters aren’t familiar with him,” he said.

“In fact, this poll shows meteoric growth in support for Congressman Steve Stockman, who only started running less than 90 days ago.” Ferguson said, “Also, this poll was taken before voters learned Cornyn voted to raise Obama’s debt limit. That vote created a new, larger explosion of opposition to Cornyn that he’s struggling to contain.”

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If there was a run off, because it is held in May there would be time for Stockman to ramp up a more active campaign and beat Cornyn, he said. “Cornyn really needs to win this primary on the fourth of March.”
These numbers are devastating for Cornyn; read the Human Events piece here, read the details of the poll here.

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A few thoughts:
  • Stockman's phenomenal growth -- In the last poll we saw, back in December, Stockman was at 6%.  Gaining 22 points in two months can reasonably be described as Cruz-esque.  Remember, Ted Cruz also required a run-off.
  • Stovall not polled -- Cornyn's numbers are even worse when you realize that the second credible opponent in the race wasn't even included in the poll.  We suspect Stovall takes the overwhelming majority of the 'Undecided' vote in this poll.  That being said, Stovall's dishonest temper tantrum in response to this poll isn't helpful.
  • Cornyn's ineffective advertising -- Since October, it has been impossible to listen to Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh's radio shows without constant ads from Cornyn.  He's still stuck at 43.  Personally, we wonder if Cornyn's incessant commercial blitzkrieg has backfired.
  • Money is irrelevant
  • Attorney General's race -- Given that folks incurred the cost to conduct this poll, we wish they'd polled the AG race as well.
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Read our endorsement for Stockman here; donate to the campaign here.

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