Roy's condemnation of Paxton certainly seems significant

"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

[Note: We'll be travelling out state for the next several days, publication will resume next week...probably.]

Hoo boy:

For the good of the people of Texas and the extraordinary public servants who serve at the Office of the Attorney General, Attorney General Ken Paxton must resign.

The allegations of bribery, abuse of office, and other charges levied against him by at least 7 senior leaders of the Office of the Attorney General are more than troubling on the merits. But, any grace for him to resolve differences and demonstrate if the allegations are false was eliminated by his choice instead to attack the very people entrusted, by him, to lead the office – some of whom I know well and whose character are beyond reproach.

The work of the Office of the Attorney General of Texas is too critical to the state and her people to leave in chaos and to risk the work of over 700 lawyers managing almost 30,000 legal cases at any given moment, including major cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, as well as processing over $4 Billion in Child Support.

The Attorney General deserves his days in court, but the people of Texas deserve a fully functioning AG’s office.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

Notice that line: "[Paxton's] choice instead to attack the very people entrusted, by him, to lead the office – some of whom I know well and whose character are beyond reproach."

Given Chip Roy's background in the AG's office, this almost certainly means that Roy spoke to all parties involved and decided the accusers are more credible than Paxton. We don't know that for a fact. But consider it a strong educated guess.

Regardless, this ain't good.

Bottom Line: Buckle up....

TPPF: Homeless, not Hopeless

"Let all things be done decently and in order."
1 Corinthians 14:40

Really good presentation from TPPF a couple days ago:



Highlights:

• "Housing first" is a farce.

• 75%(ish) of the homeless population has serious substance and/or mental health issues.

• Austin's policies making problem worse.

• Dozens of people sleeping outside within a few blocks of TPPF.
• Personal Note: Can confirm.

• Businesses have basically abandoned downtown Seattle.

• There have been multiple murders committed at UT-Austin by homeless individuals.
• Note: See here and here.

• When Chip Roy discussed the topic with Adler, all Adler wanted was more money from the feds.

• "You need to balance compassion with enforcement."

• If local governments won't maintain public order, anything else you try is a waste of time.

• Homelessness is down over 50% in Houston in the past decade.
• Note: This is worth further study, cuz' Houston ain't exactly conservative.

• Travis county is abdicating it's responsibility and letting the city take heat.

• Take a serious look at bringing back insane asylums.
• (VERY IMPORTANT) NOTE: The speaker said that.  NOT this author.  While we admit this is an interesting idea in the context of homelessnees, to put it mildly we don't trust the state of Texas on the subject of "mental health."

Roy makes so-called "Paycheck Protection Program" meaningfully less useless

"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

We just noticed this today, although apparently it happened a week ago:

The U.S. House overwhelmingly passed legislation Thursday to ease rules on small-business owners who are participating in a loan program meant to mitigate the economic complications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new legislation was a bipartisan effort, spearheaded by two freshmen — including U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin. The goal is to give business owners and operates more flexibility in the rules small businesses must follow in order to have their loans forgiven. The bill now moves to the Senate, where Roy has said he expects it will pass. (Update: The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the bill on June 3, and it will head to the President Trump's desk for signature.)

"We want to make sure that money is being targeted and focused in ways that's best for those businesses in order to stay alive," Roy said in an interview last week as he was shepherding the bill through the chamber. "That's the concern, that businesses are unable to get through this and stay alive."

The legislation made significant changes to the Paycheck Protection Program, a fund aimed at keeping afloat small businesses devastated by the coronavirus pandemic. In this program, small-business owners secured loans that will ultimately be forgiven if they play by the law's rules. Roy's bill loosened those rules for small business owners by:

• Allowing recipients to defer payroll taxes. 

• Extending the time in which business owners can use the loans from June 30 until Dec. 31. 

• Reducing the ratio of loan funding that must be allocated to payroll from 75% to 60%. 

• Extending the period in which small-business owners who are not eligible for forgiveness can pay back the loans to five years.

 This is interesting for a few reasons:

1. The so-called "PPP" program was basically useless as originally passed.  Roy's modifications make it less so.  This is welcome news to anyone using it to navigate the government-mandated shutdowns.
   
   
2. The knock people love to make on Chip Roy is that he's more interested in "hollow posturing" than substance.  This development kicks that argument to the curb.  That Roy build overwhelming bipartisan consensus at a time when his party is in the minority is icing on the cake.
   

Bottom Line:  This will probably be the most meaningful accomplishment of this session of Congress; kudos to Chip Roy for making it happen.

#TXLEGE: Who does Leach think he's kidding?!?

"And why do you look at the speck in your brother’s eye, but do not consider the plank in your own eye?"

Matthew 7:3

Apparently, Chip Roy was (correctly) raising heck in D.C. yesterday:

Well, hardly anything surprises me anymore - but ⁦@SpeakerPelosi⁩ just tore up the Constitution by jamming “proxy voting” thru so members of Congress can turn over their obligation to work for constituents to other members. We ask Americans to work. So should Congress. pic.twitter.com/al7fwiCeOv

— Chip Roy (@chiproytx) May 15, 2020

O.K. Good deal Chip Roy. Ghost/proxy voting is a wretched procedure.

Then this happened:

You're joking, right?!?

As we explained:

It's funny 'cuz proxy voting happens every single day (sometimes dozens of times per day) the Texas house is in session.

(But good deal @chiproytx for trying to keep this travesty out of Congress; we've seen how corrupting it is back home.)

Clerk will ring the bell....#TXLEGE https://t.co/jTmnJpnYFy

— cahnman (@cahnman) May 16, 2020

Case in point:

From last session:

But this isn’t a ghost story. It’s a story of representatives helping each other via an informed courtesy involving pushing their voting buttons when they’re away from their desks. Lots of votes are cast on a long day in the House. And lots of times members are elsewhere in the chamber when votes come up. They often leave instructions with desk neighbors on how they want to be shown voting, though they have to be in the chamber to vote.

But sometimes those votes are cast when a member is not in the chamber nor in the building nor even in Austin. That’s not supposed to happen.

But sometimes it changes the outcome of a close vote on an important matter.

You get the point, but there's a wealth of additional examples here.

Bottom Line:  For a member of the Texas house to decry ghost/proxy voting is quite something.

Statesman makes ASININE attack on Chip Roy

"Every prudent man acts with knowledge,
But a fool lays open his folly."
Proverbs 13:6

Editorial this morning:

Once again we find ourselves wondering: Who is U.S. Rep. Chip Roy representing?

....

With his vote over the weekend against a major coronavirus economic relief package, Roy chose hollow posturing over helping constituents. Thankfully the petty opposition by Roy, a Republican congressman for northern Hays and southern Travis counties, did not kill the measure, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives with overwhelming bipartisan support and now awaits Senate approval.

....

Roy protested that the package, hammered out by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, was unveiled shortly before the vote, with no opportunity for members of Congress to amend it. Certainly those circumstances are less than ideal. They also reflect the difficulty of the moment, with leaders of opposing parties racing to craft a relief package in the face of a public health emergency.

....

Reasonable debates continue over funding priorities and the reach of government. But when Americans are hurting, we expect members of Congress to set aside partisan squabbling and push for the greater good.

How silly.

Apparently, according to the Statesman, members of Congress actually knowing what's in the bill is "hollow posturing."  What else is there to say?!?  Pretty much speaks for itself.

But what's even more astounding is how the Statesman takes every single claim made by the government at face value.

On what planet does the government, as it actually exists in the real world, deserve that level of benefit of the doubt?!?

Bottom Line:  It's just astounding how, after every time we've been burned by the government rushing through major policy changes under the guise of crisis over the past 20 years, that an alleged watchdog organization would object to basic due diligence.

-------

Bonus: How much do you want to bet that the Statesman will (correctly) cry bloody murder if council tries to do the exact same thing with the land development code re-write.

Crenshaw's Not Necessarily Wrong about Climate Change ("Carbon Capture" Still Boondoggle tho)

"But the wisdom that is from above is first pure, then peaceable, gentle, willing to yield, full of mercy and good fruits, without partiality and without hypocrisy."
James 3:17

There's been some chatter about comments Dan Crenshaw made during Policy Orientation:

“We can make fun of the left’s sort of alarmist views on climate change — and we should, to an extent — but we can’t ignore it completely,” Crenshaw said during a keynote Q-and-A at the right-leaning Texas Public Policy Foundation’s 2020 policy conference. “From a political standpoint, we cannot ignore it completely.”

....

“It’s not totally untrue. Their alarmism is often, almost always, completely untrue and not founded in facts or data. When they’re blaming storms and things on climate change, it’s usually nonsense,” Crenshaw said. “That doesn’t mean there isn’t some effect on the climate from man-made emissions, and we can admit that.”

....

“Even if we don’t know what it’s doing to the environment, let’s at least err on the side of caution,” Crenshaw said. “But it doesn’t mean erring on the side of destroying the economy, which is what the left would have. So two things: grant some of the premise — not all of the premise — that they’re operating on, some of it, and expose them for what they’re really trying to do, which is a complete socialist takeover of the economy.”

We were there when Crenshaw said this.  To be honest, we didn't give it any additional thought.  The ensuing kerfuffle is odd.

Crenshaw drew a distinction between the global warming cultists and folks who have valid environmental concerns.  It's a distinction worth drawing more often.  Because Crenshaw's right that it's bad politics to ignore the latter group.

But the great, raging, irony is that Crenshaw made these comments while on a panel with Chip Roy.

Because Roy's been illustrating the same distinction for at least a year:

It's one thing to argue that there have been unintended environmental consequences from the increase in carbon emissions over the past 200 years. That might very well be the case. In that context, a discussion about reducing carbon emissions might be worth having.

Likewise, in that context, you have to acknowledge that collapsing natural gas prices have done more to reduce carbon emissions than anything else.

That will never be good enough for the global warming cultists. And that's fine. Don't waste your breath.

But natural gas prices are a wedge that should be driven between those concerned about the unintended environmental consequences of carbon emissions and the global warming cultists.

And Chip Roy showed us how.

Yet the media completely missed when Chip Roy did this...only to oddly glom onto Dan Crenshaw a year later.

That being said, Crenshaw's counter-proposal is still a dumb boondoggle.  It's one thing to say that innovation is the best way to solve environmental challenges.  It's something else to use that as a cover to merely have government pick a different set of winners and losers.

Which is all the GOP's so-called "carbon capture" proposal does.

Nevertheless, it remains the case that discussing how innovation is the best way to solve environmental challenges is also good politics.

And that's the only point Crenshaw was making last week.

Bottom Line: Sometimes, it's just odd to see which seemingly innocuous comments provoke a backlash.

Chip Roy Might Save the GOP's Bacon on Health Care

"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

We discussed Ted Cruz and Chip Roy's recent Health Care proposal last week; yesterday, Roy discussed it in greater depth at TPPF'S Policy Orientation.

We could say a lot about it.  Obviously, we like it.  But there are a couple of reasons why we think there's a small chance this time *MIGHT* be different.  But the reality is that the only reason either is relevant is because Chip Roy is a member of Congress.

The biggest difference is that somebody is FINALLY talking about fixing the Health Care system.  Not just repealing Obamacare.  Chip Roy (and, belatedly, Ted Cruz) want to actually fix the health care system.

This is something that you can actually take to your friends and neighbors.  Chip Roy's proposal will actually lower your personal health care costs (probably significantly).  Chip Roy's health care proposal will give you more options for how you obtain health care.  No promises, but Roy's health care proposal is also likely to unleash a new round of medical innovation.

This is the first time in 25 years that we can write what we said in the preceding paragraph.

The other reason, perhaps, for modest optimism is that some of the other members of the Texas delegation also seem to get it (on this issue).  Before his panel, Roy was also the lunchtime keynote with Dan Crenshaw.  Obviously, Crenshaw's been a bit of a mixed bag as a Congressman, but Crenshaw and Roy are pulling in the same direction in health care.

Bottom Line: Obviously, a lot remains to be seen, but Chip Roy might just be the man to make it happen.

Cruz and Roy FINALLY do what they should've done FIVE YEARS AGO

"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

TPPF earlier this week:

AUSTIN – The Texas Public Policy Foundation praises the introduction of the Personalized Care Act in the Senate (S. 3112) by Senators Cruz and Braun and in the House (H.R. 5596) this week by Representative Chip Roy.

These concise bills make a substantial impact to the U.S. employer-based health care system by allowing individuals to have the same benefits as employers to buy medical coverage and services with pre-tax dollars.

“Allowing for this equality between employers and employees will help improve portability of coverage for individuals and would free Americans from job-lock of undesirable jobs they are keeping solely for cheaper, employer-based health insurance,” said David Balat, director of the Right on Healthcare initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

The Personalized Care Act will expand Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and put millions of Americans in control of their healthcare choices. This will allow Americans to personalize their care with tax-advantaged dollars. Among other enhancements, the bill allows funds from HSAs to be used in coordination for expanded healthcare options such as direct medical care, healthcare sharing ministries, medications, and insurance premiums.

It's ABOUT dadgum time.

Ted Cruz and Chip Roy are two of the GOP's best spokespeople on health care.  They've needed to put out their own plan for a long, long time.  They FINALLY did it!!!

We first discussed this publicly in 2018.  We've been saying the same thing privately for longer.  Although we didn't think it newsworthy at the time, we delivered this message to Cruz personally following a local 2017 event.

Had this plan existed a few years ago, a lot of pain could have been avoided.  The missed opportunity of not doing so remains an act of political malpractice.  But it happened.  All you can do now is correct the mistake moving forward.  This week's news does that.

Bottom Line: Late > Never, etc.

Chip Roy is completely correct

"The rich rules over the poor,
And the borrower is servant to the lender."
Proverbs 22:7

+1:

These spending bills are atrocious. It'll be interesting to watch my Republican colleagues, who look their constituents in the eyes while campaigning on fiscal restraint and a "balanced budget amendment," vote in favor of this package. The party of fiscal restraint ... pic.twitter.com/HOICzkO96i

— Rep. Chip Roy (@RepChipRoy) December 17, 2019

Highlights:

• "This bill doesn't provide anything, the American people provide."

• "This bill borrows."

• "Our nation is $23 Trillion in debt, racking up $100 million worth of debt per hour."

• "This bill is filled with massive policy changes, that we should debate, and vote on, individually."

• "It has a bailout for big insurance."

• "The bill changes the tobacco age nationwide."
• Note: Are you serious?!?

• "Turning Federalism on its head, with nary a whimper from Republicans who like to talk about the tenth amendment in speeches back home."

• "The bill continues the giveaway to big corporations like Boeing in the form of Ex-Im for seven years."

• "The bill funds bureaucrats who wish to target your second amendment rights."

• "It funds abortion through Obamacare plans."

• "The biggest problem is we haven't read the bill."

• "The worst kind of bi-partisanship."

Apparently, this spending bill is longer than the original Obamacare bill.

It's disgraceful.

But kudos to Chip Roy for fighting the good fight.

Bottom Line: There's a reason why Chip Roy is one of the few elected officials that deserves re-election.

Davis continues repeating mistakes from last campaign

"Lest you ponder her path of life—
Her ways are unstable;
You do not know them."
Proverbs 5:6

She makes it official:



From a personal perspective, here's what's amazing: We just, two days ago, wrote a blog post about Wendy Davis repeating the mistakes from her last campaign...and she's doing it again!!!

In the video, Davis discusses her family (especially her father) extensively.  She discusses (her version of) her story.  What's missing, however, is any substantive discussion of public affairs or any compelling reason for her candidacy.

When she ran for Governor in 2014, Wendy Davis tried to make her biography one of her primary selling points...and it blew up in her face.

You'd think she'd learn.

Bottom Line: Wendy Davis' primary political problem will always be that her views on public policy are not aligned with the constituents she seeks to represent.  Fair or unfair, however, she also comes across as entitled.  Today's announcement video will help cement that perception.  If Wendy Davis uses the same playbook to run her congressional campaign that she used in her race for governor, she should expect the same result....

Davis already repeating mistakes from last campaign

"Lest you ponder her path of life—
Her ways are unstable;
You do not know them."
Proverbs 5:6

We first started hearing that Wendy Davis might run for Chip Roy's Congressional seat in January.

Almost two months ago, there was another boomlet of "will she or won't she?" speculation.

She didn't pull the trigger either time.

Now, national political operatives linked to Nancy Pelosi are leaking that...this time...Wendy Davis is totally, totally, TOTALLY going to run!!!

She might.  She might not.  Regardless of her final decision, however, she's already squandered the first six months of any potential campaign.  If Davis does choose to run, she's already waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind the 8-ball.

She's done this before.  In 2013, Wendy Davis' infamous filibuster was in June.  She didn't announce her campaign for Governor, however, until October.  Whatever initial momentum she may have had was squandered through indecision.

Bottom Line: This isn't the first time we've seen an extended Hamlet act from this particular individual....

Chip Roy will LOSE if he campaigns against "Hollywood and Manhattan elites"

"that we should no longer be children, tossed to and fro and carried about with every wind of doctrine, by the trickery of men, in the cunning craftiness of deceitful plotting,"
Ephesians 4:14

It's not a secret that Wendy Davis is probably running against Chip Roy; unfortunately, Chip's opening salvo is depressing beyond words:



This is an idiotic strategy that is doomed to fail.

NOBODY.  CARES.

Or at least: No swing voter or soft partisan in CD-21 cares.  CD-21 is Austin, San Antonio, and the Hill Country.  Swing voters/Soft partisans in CD-21 are the type of people who travel to places like New York City and Southern California.  They might not like the policies of those places, but they will roll their eyes at this sort of nonsense.

Campaigning against "Hollywood" is intellectually-lazy claptrap.  It's a dying playbook.  We strongly suspect that, in Austin, San Antonio, and the Hill Country, it's already dead.  If anything, it will produce negative returns.

Bottom Line: This is the stupidest political attack since Ted Cruz's campaign went after hair dye....

Cruz & Roy are first Republicans, ANYWHERE, to handle Occasio-Cortez correctly

"Though one may be overpowered by another, two can withstand him.
And a threefold cord is not quickly broken."
Ecclesiastes 4:12

By now you've heard:

WASHINGTON – U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz committed on Thursday to partner up with his political opposite, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to move legislation that would ban members of Congress from becoming corporate lobbyists after they leave public life.

The two were joined by Chip Roy.

This is an obvious, no-brainer, idea that should have been enacted a long time ago.  That it hasn't been speaks to the perverse incentives riddling congress.  We applaud Senator Cruz and Representatives Cortez and Roy for forcing the discussion.  Godspeed.

There's another, more important, point to consider.

Alexandria Occasio-Cortez has been a national political figure for about a year. Yes, we have seen some criticism of her ideas & policies.  But we've seen a lot more derogatory commentary about people who work in the service industry.  And this taking her out of context to make her look stupid schtick needs to die.

Alexandria Occasio-Cortez's success comes from her willingness to call out obvious nonsense in the American economy.  It was the theme of her campaign.  It was why she live-tweeted the Congressional brainwashing session.  It's why she ridicules some of the more transparent phonies in recent memory.

Most of the time, she just goes after low-hanging fruit no-one else wants to touch...

...which is why seeing Ted Cruz and Chip Roy take her up on that low hanging fruit was so refreshing.

There's no reason why Alexandria Occasio-Cortez should have this issue to herself.

Let's not kid ourselves: Banning members of Congress from becoming lobbyists faces GIGANTIC institutional opposition.  But that's no reason not to try.  At a minimum, you get some positive media coverage out of it.

It's certainly a more intelligent strategy than disparaging people who work in the service industry.

Bottom Line: Maybe it shouldn't be that way.  But it is.  If we can actually ban former members of congress from becoming lobbyists, so much the better.

Roy's move toward sanity will beget Hysteria

"There is desirable treasure,
And oil in the dwelling of the wise,
But a foolish man squanders it."
Proverbs 21:20

In news that shouldn't be a big story, but is:

Rep. Chip Roy became the man who delayed $19.1 billion in disaster aid to communities throughout the country on Friday.

House leaders tried to pass a multibillion-dollar disaster assistance measure, by unanimous consent, but the Texas Republican objected on the floor.

Since House and Senate lawmakers have already left town for their Memorial Day recess, the objection likely causes a 10-day holdup in delivering aid that has already been delayed for five months amid cross-party sparring. The Senate passed the measure Thursday, with President Donald Trump's blessing.

The House could still pass the bill by unanimous consent next week, if no lawmaker comes to the floor to object.

Here's the truth: The real world consequences of any of this will be minimal...and anyone who tells you otherwise is manipulating your emotions for political purposes.

Period.  End of story.

Purported federal 'disaster relief' is a farce.  It's a hodge-podge of unrelated spending shoehorned into an emotionally compelling narrative.  So-called federal 'disaster relief' hurts the communities it claims to help.

Claims to the contrary are political hysteria.

Bottom Line:  There's no crisis.  There's just an excuse for federal spending.  Kudos to Chip Roy derailing this sham....

Chip Roy Hosts a FASCINATING Town Hall

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

[Note: We lost the piece of paper on which we took notes.  This blog post is written from memory.  We ask your indulgence.]

We attended Chip Roy's town hall last night, hosted by TPPF:



During his introductory remarks, Roy discussed the border, health care, and energy.  All standard stuff for Roy.  The Q&A with conservatives audience members was also pretty standard.  But the Q&A with left-leaning audience members was where it got interesting.

While talking about energy, Roy made the point that lower natural gas prices were a direct consequence of the shale revolution.  Because of those lower natural gas prices, the United States is the only country in the world to reduce its carbon emissions over the past five years.  If you want to accomplish something on climate change, increasing U.S. natural gas exports should be your #1 goal (at least in the short/medium term).  Chip Roy literally made this point in his prepared remarks.

But that wasn't good enough for some audience members:

• One woman assailed Roy for questioning some of the doom and gloom scenarios, but couldn't come up with a policy ask.

• A guy who couldn't acknowledge that Chip Roy was answering his question even as Chip Roy repeated what he said above about natural gas.

• Another guy who asked Roy "where do you get your information" about climate issues.  Roy specifically cited a UT-Austin professor and Texas state government statistics.  The man said Roy refused to answer the question.

Therein lies the fascinating part.

It's one thing to argue that there have been unintended environmental consequences from the increase in carbon emissions over the past 200 years.  That might very well be the case.  In that context, a discussion about reducing carbon emissions might be worth having.

Likewise, in that context, you have to acknowledge that collapsing natural gas prices have done more to reduce carbon emissions than anything else.

That will never be good enough for the global warming cultists.  And that's fine.  Don't waste your breath.

But natural gas prices are a wedge that should be driven between those concerned about the unintended environmental consequences of carbon emissions and the global warming cultists.

And Chip Roy showed us how.

Bottom Line: This distinction is an important one to make moving forward, and it's good to see Chip Roy doing so on his own.

#TX2020: The NRCC is RETARDED if they think they should run incumbents in Texas

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The Cook Political Report, in discussing national congressional races, drops this nugget:

A key 2020 House battleground will be Texas. Democrats picked up two seats in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston last fall, but came within single digits in six more districts. The NRCC has already met with the six incumbents who survived close calls to secure commitments to run again and raise more money in 2020.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.

This type of stale, conventional, thinking is the quickest route to a second debacle in 2020.

We can explain in two numbers from last cycle: Six and Two.

• Six -- The number of open seat races Republicans held in Congressional races.
• Note: Seats now held by Dan Crenshaw, Van Taylor, Lance Gooden, Ron Wright, Chip Roy, and Michael Cloud.

• Two -- The number of incumbent Republican congressman who lost.
• Note: Seats now held by Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and Colin Allred, which were formerly held by John Culberson and Pete Sessions.

That should be the end of this cliched discussion, but since it won't be, we'll go further.

------

Chip Roy vs. John Carter:

Nowhere is this phenomenon clearer than in two suburban Congressional districts near Austin.  In the first district, a new candidate with a dedicated grassroots following held his open seat.  In the second district, a mediocre incumbent had a closer call than anyone expected.

On the surface, the results in CD-21 (Hill Country) and CD-31 (WillCo) look similar:

It's only when one compares them to Trump's performance in 2016 that the pattern emerges:

Trump's 2016 margin minus the 2018 GOP candidate's margin follows:

• CD-21: 10% - 2.8% = 7.2% GOP dropoff between '16 and '18.

• CD-31: 13% - 3% = 10% GOP dropoff between '16 and '18.

That 2.8% is the difference between good candidates in open seats vs. lousy incumbents.

This is exactly what we predicted would happen in those two districts, and the data backs us up.

Of course, we also predicted that John Carter was in a lot of trouble in a presidential cycle...but, by all means, let's run John Friggin' Carter in a presidential cycle.

And yes, Chip Roy saved the GOP's bacon in CD-21.

-------

Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor:

It wasn't as pronounced as the Chip Roy race, but a similar phenomenon emerged in Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor's races.

2016 results here.

2018 results here.

-------

Learning from Pete Sessions:

Last cycle, we wrote the following about now-former congressman Pete Sessions:

Pete Sessions is a liability that should have been dealt with YEARS ago

That specific blog post was written in reference to a scandal surrounding Sessions' abuse of campaign contributions, but the headline doubles as a general metaphor for Pete Sessions.

We warned people about Sessions for YEARS.  Eventually, in a strong enough Democrat wave, he lost.  We should learn that lesson and preemptively address our other liabilities.

-------

Learning from John Culberson:

One of the open secrets among Republican campaign types last cycle was John Culberson's laziness.    Culberson might have held his seat if he'd simply worked harder.  Culberson approached the race with a sense of entitlement and the results speak for themselves.

Of course, incumbent politicians becoming entitled and lazy shouldn't surprise anyone.

Perhaps we shouldn't run entitled, lazy, incumbents.

-------

Reminder from 2018:

• Open Congressional seats Texas Republicans held: 6.

• Incumbent Congressional seats Texas Republicans lost: 2.

-------

Bottom Line: In a competitive general election environment, it's much better to have a good candidate running in an open seat than it is to try and drag some lousy incumbent across the finish line.

Roy growing increasingly articulate on Campaign Trail

"The things which you learned and received and heard and saw in me, these do, and the God of peace will be with you."
Philippians 4:9

During both the primary, and the runoff, this website criticized Chip Roy's messaging.  He wasn't necessarily doing anything wrong, but his rhetoric was cliched and stale.  That has changed.

A Politico interview and a Trib appearance yesterday illustrate Roy's growth.  Most important, Roy is finally connecting abstract conservative principles with people's day-to-day lives.  We'll focus on the Trib appearance because there's video (and because we're partial to in-state media).



Health Care is the issue where Roy's growth is most evident.  He's now promoting "health care freedom" instead of "repealing Obamacare."  That's important because fixing the health care system will galvanize the public in a way that returning to the pre-2010 status quo won't.

Roy explains: "If you're going to own something, you have to solve the problem."  The uninspiring 2017 health care bills didn't do so.  Furthermore, "if you don't cause costs to go down, it's not going to work."  The primary way to accomplish this objective is to remove bureaucrats while increasing Doctors and other medical professionals.  Policy details can follow, but the problem is (finally) properly defined.  To his credit, Roy also calls BS on the so-called 'pre-existing condition' ruse.  Specifically, Roy explained yesterday government created that problem.

Roy refuses to be bullied about the national debt.  Specifically, when asked about it, Roy blames FEDERAL SPENDING not insufficient taxation.  Roy also has the political courage to explain that you can't address the national debt without addressing Medicare and Social Security.  On immigration/border issues, Roy is now discussing them with the complexity they deserve, rather than earlier platitudes about "opposing amnesty."

Bottom Line: It's an impressive, and welcome, level of growth....

#TribFest18: "The Red Team" illustrates how Texas' Congressional Delegation is improving

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Open seat Congressional candidates Dan Crenshaw, Chip Roy, Van Taylor, and Ron Wright spoke on a panel this morning.  It was very encouraging.  We only hope they end up serving in the majority.  The candidates covered a wide range of topics, the most interesting were federal spending, border issues, and health care.

Chip Roy was the first to attack spending.  Roy pointed out that, while tax relief/simplification and the resulting economic growth were good things, federal spending remains out-of-control.  Out-of-control spending, naturally, leads to debt.  And debt remains the largest long-term threat to the U.S. economy.  Ron Wright added that "the way we've been funding the federal government is insane."

On border issues, Van Taylor made a very important point: Border security, legal immigration, and illegal immigration are separate issues.  They should all be treated as such.  Trying to solve all three in a "comprehensive" manner is a recipe for disaster.  We've also learned from experience that those sorts of bills are impossible to pass.

Taylor is correct.  The way you solve complex problems is by breaking them into their component parts.  Then you solve the component parts.  Eventually, you end up solving the big, complex, problem.

On health care, Chip Roy finally moved beyond just "repealing Obamacare" to discuss how to actually fix health care.  Obviously, this is a point we've been hammering for months.  While Roy's full remarks deserve a blog post of their own, the short version is that he spoke in favor of reducing costs and price transparency.  Wright added that "we need a system where doctors and patients call the shots."

That being said, the person who was really impressive was Dan Crenshaw.  This was the first we'd ever heard him speak.  He is seriously sharp!  We were impressed with his answers to every single question.  Especially impressive was his discussion of the defense budget.  Crenshaw explained that the military doesn't actually want a lot of that spending.  It's nothing but corporate welfare for defense contractors.  That's not something you often hear from candidates who are veterans.

Bottom Line: The Texas grassroots did a very good job in Congressional races this cycle; it shows....

John Carter will probably survive this year (but he's still a putz who DESPERATELY needs a Primary)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The Trib has an interesting write up about the allegedly closer-than-expected race in CD-31.  The race features an eight term incumbent Williamson County RINO against a Democrat who's an Afghanistan veteran with a compelling life story.  In a midterm year, the underlying partisanship of the district will probably hold.  But anyone who doesn't see a liability emerging for a Presidential year is FOOLING themselves.

The Trib explains:

Amid all of this money, Texas Republican operatives interviewed for this story expressed fear that [John Carter's opponent] poses an existential threat to Carter's political career and that he's not adequately prepared organizationally or financially.

...

There are a few reasons some in GOP circles fear a perfect storm is brewing against Carter. Perhaps the one quietly discussed the most is that the mechanics, fundraising and tactics of modern campaigning have changed dramatically since his first successful run more than 15 years ago and he hasn't kept up.

BINGO; John Carter is an aloof putz.

The phrase "out of touch" has become a political cliche.  But it still applies in certain circumstances.  Carter looks like one of those circumstances.

In the viral video that made her campaign politically viable, John Carter's opponent explained her reason for running.  Several years ago, she sought a meeting with Carter to discuss expanding opportunities for women in combat.  Carter's office refused to meet with her because she wasn't a campaign donor.

Say whatever you want about the wisdom of putting women in combat but, regardless, JOHN CARTER'S BEHAVIOR IS INDEFENSIBLE.  He should have, at least, taken the meeting and politely listened.  He couldn't manage that.

It's the type of unforced error that only an eight-term incumbent, who's grown waaaaay to comfortable in the swamp, could make.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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What's happening right now in CD-31 is very similar to what we feared could have happened in CD-21 if Lamar Smith had tried to run for re-election.

The Democrat candidate in that race is also a veteran.  Had Lamar been the Republican nominee, it would have set up a spry veteran vs. aloof incumbent.  A year ago, we were very worried that Lamar could get caught napping.

Fortunately, Lamar had the good sense to not run.  With Chip Roy as the nominee, the GOP is expected to hold CD-21 comfortably.  This is a lesson Williamson and Bell counties would do well to heed next cycle.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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Then there's this:

In touting his support for a border wall, Carter playfully joked about building a second wall, a political one between Williamson County and its more liberal neighbor, Travis County.

“It’s time to build that wall," Carter said. "If you don’t want people from Austin, liberals like the folks who most of us moved up here to get away from, if you don’t want them running ... you gotta wake up with this election."

In other words: While your opponent is talking about how you won't meet with anyone who isn't a campaign donor, your response is cheap, lazy, Austin-bashing?!?

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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Bottom Line: Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

#RPTCon18: How to ACTUALLY prevent school shootings

Ken Paxton Speaking

"Every one of the builders had his sword girded at his side as he built. And the one who sounded the trumpet was beside me.
Nehemiah 4:18

We attended this afternoon's RPT convention event with Gun Owners of America concerning the Second Amendment and the recent round of so-called "school shootings."

The Texas house Freedom Caucus opened the discussion with a legislative update on Constitutional Carry.  The short version is that a lot of politics happened last session.  Matt Schafer also pointed out that firearms regulations are embedded all over Texas' various codes, so successfully eliminating them is more complicated than it looks.  Schaefer also pointed out that firearms restrictions leave women in bad relationships vulnerable to the whims of their partners.

Attorney General Paxton made the most interesting remarks.  Paxton discussed how Israel does school safety better than any other country.  During the 1970's following various "Palestinian" attacks on innocent schoolchildren, Israel implemented measures to assure competent armed guards are stationed at every school.  Israel also allows armed teachers in classrooms.  Following the implementation of these measure, Israel hasn't seen an active shooter event in a school setting in over 40 years.

We've been meaning to point out that General Paxton is the only person talking sense about school security for a few weeks; we're glad to have this opportunity.

Ted Cruz was scheduled to speak, but got stuck in D.C.  His father spoke in the Senator's stead.  Rafael Cruz explained how his experience in Cuba illustrates how an armed citizenry is necessary.  Rafael Cruz also pointed out that Switzerland requires it's population to be armed and that it hasn't been invaded in centuries.

Chip Roy was the final speaker.  Roy discussed his recent experience at his children's school during the Austin bombings.  Roy pointed out how the Southwest Austin bombing happened near the school.  During the next several days, parents fanned out near campus to protect the students.  Roy discussed how this is the proper response to safety threats AND how gun regulations wouldn't have made a difference in this situation.  Roy also pointed out that the odds of a child being killed in school are 1 in 614 million.  [Disclosure: Chip Roy and this author have mutual friends whose children attend the school in question.]

Bottom Line:  Informative event.