WillCo #TXLEGE: Flannigan's a known liability...but GOL-LY James Talarico

"They have all turned aside,
They have together become corrupt;
There is none who does good,
No, not one."
Psalm 14:3

James Talarico is a Democrat state rep from Round Rock who got swept in during the 2018 wave.  He's best known as a chump who took promises from Dennis Bonnen at face value.   Nevertheless, to this point, we've expected Talarico would win re-election fairly easily.

But this is insane:

Talarico disclosed the $2,500 donation in a June 3 post on Facebook, in which he also called on others to donate to Austin Justice Coalition and included a link to its website. Valdez commented, “It’s obvious that Rep. Talarico stands on the far left and opposes anything law enforcement does to protect the citizens of Williamson County and the citizens of our district.”

Asked his views on defunding the police, Talarico told Honest Austin, “Our system of policing is deeply broken. We must replace it with something new and something better.”

“As they have throughout our history, the voices in the street—particularly Black voices—are calling us to imagine a different world. We expect protestors to be nonviolent. But what if we expected our government to be nonviolent? What if we stopped bringing a gun to every emergency?”

Talarico continued, “What if we called a three-digit number to summon highly-trained crisis interventionists to address a problem in our neighborhood? What if we made rehabilitation, reconciliation, and restoration our operating principles?”

“We need to invest in community-based solutions that cure the societal ills that we ask the police to treat: poverty, homelessness, substance abuse, mental health disorders… We must empower our communities, not police them. Only then will we have true public safety.”

Besides donating to the Austin Justice Coalition, Rep. Talarico also made a $50 personal donation to the reelection campaign of Jimmy Flannigan, an Austin City Council member who helped lead the charge to slash $150 million from the city’s police budget.

Talarico explained that Flannigan, who chairs the Council’s Public Safety Committee, was “a long-time friend of mine and a selfless public servant,” noting that he supported Flannigan’s positions on transportation, affordable housing, and government transparency.

That's just such an astounding thing to read: A sitting state rep, in Williamson frickin' County, just endorsed the Austin city council's "send a social worker" approach to public safety.

Understand something: People move to Round Rock is to escape the jurisdiction of the Austin city council.   That's the only reason why Round Rock is a thing.  Pledging to bring the worst aspects of Austin's approach to public safety hardly seems promising in WillCo.

It's...quite something.

Furthermore, let's not overlook the whole Flanngan connection. We get it: They're friends (although that, in and of itself, is revealing). And James Talarico wants to support his friend. Still.

Like it or not, James Talarico's friend was a primary ringleader of Austin's policies related to police defunding and (let's not kid ourselves) homelessness.

Like Austin's homeless encampments?!? Vote James Talarico!!!

Bottom Line: This race just moved from "Leans D" to "Tossup."

#TXLEGE: Income Tax election is a GIFT to county GOP's (if they take it)

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

We said our piece about the house's income tax prohibition amendment last fall:  There is a loophole in the Texas constitution the legislature should close.  The Democrats success in last year's election raised the level of urgency for closing said loophole.  Furthermore, from a political perspective, this is a vote you want to make the Democrats take.

Thus, good deal to the house's vote on Thursday; the Senate needs to follow suit.

But there's a funny thing about the Texas constitution: Voters have to ratify amendments.

Thus, if they were smart enough to take it, GOP county party organizations would have to opportunity to practice:

• Identifying Supporters
• Hint #1: This is the easiest possible issue on which to draw people in.
• Hint #2: Data.
• Hint #3: Once you've drawn them in on prohibiting a state income tax, they might be willing to listen to you on more difficult issues.
• Hint #4: If you use your shared opposition to a state income tax as the basis to begin a relationship in 2019, they might be willing to listen to you about the presidency in 2020.

• Disseminating a message/Engaging the community
• Hint: It's impossible to know what this means in individual communities, but it's likely to include some combination of local media and informal social networks.

• Forcing Local Democrats to take a position
• Hint: Most Democrat elected officials secretly support a state income tax.  Most Democrat voters DON'T.  Thus, Democrat elected officials should be forced to take a public position.

Such an effort could yield tremendous dividends in (at least) the following counties: Travis, WillCo, Hays, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Harris, Ft. Bend, Webb, Starr, Hidalgo, El Paso.

Some of those are areas that have historically been GOP strengths, but have recently softened.  Some of those have historically leaned GOP, but recently become swing territory.  Even in the deeper blue areas, however, there are intra-D tensions a more nimble GOP could exploit.

You will never have a friendlier issue on which to mount such an effort than opposition to a state income tax.

Bottom Line: The opportunity is there, but it's an open question whether or not anyone will take advantage....

The Luckiest Man in Texas (for now)

"I returned and saw under the sun that—

The race is not to the swift,
Nor the battle to the strong,
Nor bread to the wise,
Nor riches to men of understanding,
Nor favor to men of skill;
But time and chance happen to them all.
Ecclesiastes 9:11

Wasn't expecting her to pull the trigger:



M.J. Hegar in a U.S. Senate race is an interesting dynamic.  How it play out remains to be seen.  But the down ballot implication is obvious.

Nobody is happier about this decision than John Carter.

In case you forgot:

Throughout last fall's campaign, we argued (on multiple occasions) that Carter would be safe in a midterm, but that a presidential cycle was a different story.  That being said, even we didn't think Carter would lose WillCo.  We still think Carter's a terrible candidate.

John Carter is the Congressional equivalent of Wonder Bread: Old, White, and bleached of nutritional value.



Yet, the woman who nearly took him out last time decides to run for something else.

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That being said, the filing deadline isn't for 8 months; it wouldn't surprise us to see M.J. Hegar switch races after Labor Day.

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Bottom Line: John Carter is a pretty worthless congressman.  John Carter is a reliably cheap date for plutocracy; the type of dullard too arrogant to comprehend his own stupidity.  If Karl Rove and used dish soap had a baby, it would be John Carter.  That being said, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good (or smart) (or personable) (or interesting).

Georgetown's Wind Energy DEBACLE encapsulates EVERYTHING Wrong with WillCo GOP....

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Isn't that just lovely:

The City of Georgetown made a costly blunder, and residents are now paying for it.

City officials lost millions of taxpayer dollars after a failed gamble on green energy, and now Georgetown residents will pay higher electricity bills to help make up the losses.

The story began in 2012 when Mayor Dale Ross and city officials began transitioning the city’s entire power supply to solely renewable energy: they signed long-term contracts with wind and solar companies for set amounts of energy at a fixed-rate price, betting that the costs would be lower than if they used other energy sources.

The move to 100 percent renewables sparked national praise for the mayor, even earning him a spot in Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Sequel” environmental movie. Gore called Georgetown a “trailblazer” when he visited the town in 2016.

The mayor said the decision was based on dollars and cents, one that would save the people of Georgetown money.

“This is a long-term pocketbook issue,” Ross said in August. “It’s a win for economics and a win for the environment.”

But now, just seven years later, the mayor and city officials are scrambling to renegotiate the contracts. They bought far too much energy at a far too expensive price.

Which, naturally, led to this sort of national press coverage for the allegedly "Republican" mayor:

Back in 2012, this website wasn't focused on local/regional issues.  But we remember this discussion very clearly.  And we remember opponents raising two objections:

• Wind is an unreliable, inefficient, source of energy...thus these contracts would inevitably beget higher electric rates for consumers.

• This sort of collusion between big business and big government would grease the skids for Williamson county turning blue.

Here we are, seven years later, and both of those predictions have come to pass.

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Bonus question: Who among Mayor Dale Ross's cronies got wind energy contracts?!?

Follow up: Among Mayor Dale Ross's cronies that got wind energy contracts, how many were Travis County Democrats?!?

Follow up II: Among Mayor Dale Ross's Travis County Democrat cronies that got wind energy contracts, to what extent did Obama-era "clean energy" subsidies grease the skids?!?

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Bottom Line: Higher costs for consumers.  Bigger government for citizens.  But at least the Mayor's cronies got paid....

Apple "Deal" + Open Seat Primaries = Opportunity in WillCo for proactive candidates

"So teach us to number our days,
That we may gain a heart of wisdom."
Psalm 90:12

Late last year, we said our piece about the failures of the WillCo. GOP as it relates to the Apple "deal."  As we consider past failures, however, we can't help spotting opportunity.  It's an opportunity they would be well advised to take.

During the 2020 cycle, there will be (at least) 3 "open seat" primaries for seats that have recently flipped:

• Commissioners Court Precinct 1 (Austin/Round Rock/Unincorporated).

• HD 52 (Round Rock/Hutto/Taylor) -- The old Larry Gonzales seat.

• HD 136 (Cedar Park) -- The soon-to-be old Tony Dale seat.

Each of these races can be won.  Each of them should still be Republican.  Yet the atrophied WillCo. GOP has recently squandered each.

In 2020, the opportunity exists for pro-level playing field/anti-crony capitalism GOP candidates across WillCo.  Such candidates should argue that the WillCo GOP's recent forays into crony capitalism have lead to higher taxes and more Democrats getting elected.  Given it's immense wealth, the recently proposed Apple 'deal' is the worst example.

Such a campaign would make three arguments:

1. Crony Capitalism is immoral -- Preferential treatment for the wealthy and politically connected, with the Apple "deal" as the flagrant example, is an inherent abuse of power.
   
2. Crony Capitalism is bad for the economy -- Having made the abstract moral argument, it's also important to highlight the practical consequence of crony capitalism meaning a net tax increase.
   
3. Crony Capitalism is awful politics -- Ending the abuse of political power and keeping taxes low ought to be sufficient.  But, clearly, it isn't.  So let's talk politics.
   
   Special treatment for the wealthy and politically connected, along with the higher taxes that naturally ensue, lays the foundation for Democrats.
   
   And nowhere is that more obvious, in recent years, than Williamson county.

In 2020, the WillCo D's are going to run against Trump.  That's perilous territory.  But if the WillCo GOP forces the WillCo D's to defend preferential treatment for the wealthy and well connected...they just might remind voters why they rejected the party of Hillary Clinton in the first place.

They certainly won't do any worse than they've been doing.

Bottom Line: Williamson County desperately needs an anti-crony capitalism/pro-level playing field insurgency.  Open seat primaries are a good platform.  This wretched Apple 'deal' is a great place to start.

Apple "Deal" -- EVERYTHING wrong with Passive, Atrophied, Williamson County GOP

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

As we've considered this Apple "deal" over the weekend, one thought stands out: Where the heck is the Williamson County GOP?!?

We know the answer to that question.  We've discussed that question in the context of the Williamson County GOP losing the U.S. Senate race.  But, in action, it's still a sight.

Allow us to explain.

This Apple "deal" is going to be a tax increase for every Williamson County resident who is not affiliated with Apple.

The foundation of good tax policy is a broad base with low rates.  When you exempt one group from taxation, the way Williamson County intends with Apple, you have to raise tax rates on everybody else.  A narrower tax base means higher tax rates.

Tax "Abatements."  ARE TAX HIKES.  For 99%(+).  Of the community.

But, instead, the Republican majority Williamson County's commissioner's court wants to vote on this "deal" tomorrow.  Also lame-duck county judge's final meeting.  How fitting.

We're probably spitting into the wind; but, if anyone in WillCo wants to show a pulse, here's how we'd fight this Apple "deal":

1. Flood Tomorrow's Williamson County Commissioner's Court Meeting:
   
   Given short notice, 7 people attending tomorrow's meeting probably counts as a "flood."  The commissioners need to see community opposition.  Put them on notice.
   
   NOTE: Even if they can't attend tomorrow's meeting, WillCo residents really SHOULD contact their county elected officials.
   
   Dan Gattis (Outgoing County Judge): (512) 943-1550
   Twitter: @DanGattis
   
   Bill Gravell (Incoming County Judge): (512) 943-1501
   Twitter: @BillGravell
   
   Cynthia Long (WillCo Commissioner, Precinct 2): (512) 260-4280
   Twitter: @CynthiaLongTX
   
2. Petition Campaign:
   
   Any potential tax abatement "deal" with Apple really ought to be subject to voter approval.  Ideally, on the May 2019 ballot.  If May 2019 is too tall of an order, November 2019 is fine.
   
   Such a petition campaign would be similar to the one currently underway in Austin re: Soccer.
   
3. State-Level Pushback:
   
   Let's not kid ourselves: None of the above is likely to happen.  "Conservative leadership" in Williamson County has been a joke for a long time.  That being said, Williamson County is not the only jurisdiction this "deal" concerns.
   
   This "deal" remains, primarily, a State of Texas level "deal."
   
   If taxpayers statewide start raising hell about this act of larceny, any non-passivity that emerges in WillCo will be a bonus.
   
   Remember: Nobody thought we could beat Warren Buffett a year and a half ago....

Bottom Line: Apple's market cap is comparable to the GDP of the Netherlands.  They can afford to expand their existing facility without public subsidies.  It sure would be nice if an allegedly "conservative" political party would make this argument in its own backyard....

Abbott thinks he can Outsmart Free Market

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

For crying out loud:

Apple Inc. is planning to spend $1 billion to build a new 133-acre corporate campus in North Austin that initially will employ up to 5,000 people, cementing Austin’s status as the high-tech company’s largest hub outside of its California headquarters.

The facility — which will be less than a mile from Apple’s existing main Austin campus on Parmer Lane — eventually could expand to accommodate up to 15,000 workers, the company said. Apple employs about 6,200 people in Austin now. Counting contractors, its current Austin workforce numbers about 7,000.

....

Apple is in line to receive as much as $25 million in taxpayer-funded grants for the new Austin campus from the state’s deal-closing Texas Enterprise Fund, based on investment and job creation at the site. It also is seeking a 15-year property tax abatement from Williamson County, where the project is located just over the line from Travis County, that could be worth tens of millions of dollars over the life of the deal, although specific numbers weren’t available Wednesday.

Apple isn’t receiving any financial incentives from the city of Austin.

Apple — which is one of the most valuable companies in the world with a market capitalization of about $803 billion — was pledged an estimated $36 million in combined incentives from the state, the city of Austin and Travis County in 2012, when it agreed to build its existing Parmer campus.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

SERIOUSLY?!?  The $803bn figure citied in the Statesman article means Apple's market cap is comparable with the GDP of the Netherlands.  Would you give subsidies to the Netherlands?!?

By giving preferential treatment to the wealthy and well connected, Abbott will inevitably increase the burden of government on Texans.  Every penny that goes to Apple is one fewer penny to go to everything else on which the state spends money.  Don't get us started on how this deal will narrow the tax base in WillCo.  That being said, we do feel a modest point of civic pride that Austin won't be offering any incentives.

The worst part is how this corrodes our political system.  We're still skeptical that these sorts of programs encourage out-of-state liberals to move to Texas in meaningful numbers.  But it's absolutely correct that they incentivize hiring lobbyists over innovation or competition on price and service.  This is especially galling in tech, whose large players are well known for seeking subsidies for themselves while attempting to regulate their competition out of business.

Bottom Line:  Usually, socialism is when the rich steal from the middle class by using the poor as human shields.  For Greg Abbott, however, it looks like we can drop the pretense with the poor.  Yaaay Texas Republicans!!!

About Tuesday Night....

"Trust in the Lord with all your heart,
And lean not on your own understanding;"
Proverbs 3:5

Well it's done.

By now, you know the damage: 2 congressional seats, 2 Texas Senate seats, 11/12 Texas house seats.  Dozens of Judicial Races.

We've been analyzing and reflecting for several days, and we're starting to reach some conclusions.

It's impossible to know how much of a role each of these factors played, but together they combined to produce the results described above.

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Before we begin, let's clear up one myth (with two flipsides) that we've seen pop up in the media and in other discussions.

Tuesday's results had nothing to do with whether the GOP was either a) "Too Conservative" or b) "Not conservative enough."

Republicans from all over the ideological spectrum lost.  When Matt Rinaldi and Tony Dale both lose, it ain't ideological.  It might, however, have something to do with the similarities between their districts.

Anyone using Tuesday's results as an excuse to settle scores from the primary should be ignored.

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ANY Republican President:

On Tuesday night, we called Trump "toxic."  Having had several days to research history and talk with sources, we think that statement was a shortsighted exaggeration.  Trump definitely made it worse, but a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president.

Over the past three decades, down ballot races in Texas have tended to go against the party of the president.  This is especially true in the second half of the decade.  This was true in the 90's under Clinton (to the R's benefit).  It was true in the 2000's under both Bush and Obama (first for D's then for R's).  It's been true this decade under Obama and Trump (first for R's then for D's).  The only exception was during Dubya's post 9/11 honeymoon.

A lot of those districts had been blue in the not too distant past.  They only flipped in 2010.  If anything, our biggest mistake was to assume Obama-era partisan splits would continue indefinitely.

On Wednesday morning, Republican data guru Derek Ryan tweeted:

The following are totals for the Texas House.

In 1980, Democrats drew maps. They elected 114 Ds in 1982. By 1988, the total was down to 93.

In 1990, Democrats drew maps. They elected 92 Ds in 1992. By 1998, the total was down to 78.
(2/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

In 2000, Republicans drew maps. They elected 88 Rs in 2002. By 2008, the total was down to 76.

In 2010, Republicans drew maps. They elected 95 Rs in 2012. In 2018, the total is now down to 83.
(3/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

While Ryan was making a separate point about gerrymandering, his data is still consistent with our observation that these races tend to go against the party of the president.

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Trump:

While a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the current Republican president made it worse.

Donald Trump causes a lot more people to vote.  2016 was the all time record for any Texas election.  2018 was the midterm record.  Across the political spectrum, turnout is up.

Here's the problem: While both sides are drawing more voters, this proportionally helps Democrats because they're starting from a lower base.

Consider the case of Glenn Hegar.  Glenn Hegar is probably the closest thing you've got to "generic Republican" on a statewide ballot.  The relationship between the raw vote totals and the percentages in Hegar's two elections is instructive.

2014:

2018:

In 2018, Glenn Hegar got approximately 1.7 million additional votes over his 2014 total.  His 2018 Democrat opponent got approximately 1.8 million additional votes over his 2014 opponent. While those raw vote totals are comparable, because the Democrats are starting from a lower base, that means it benefits them proportionally.

More people are voting on both sides.  But they're voting in a way that proportionally benefits Democrats.  It's worth a five point shift in the generic ballot.

Then there's the unprecedented DEBACLE in the judiciary.

"Before Trump's visit, Cruz's internal numbers had him leading by double digits statewide. In the days after, his lead dropped to 5 points."https://t.co/sqhGVkYjk1

— Aman Batheja (@amanbatheja) November 9, 2018

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Cruz:

While any Republican President would have dug a hole, and this one dug it deeper, Ted Cruz kept digging.  What kind of campaign gets into a two week argument with its top supporters over yard signs?!?

Cruz's biggest problem is baggage from the presidential campaign.  While each move made sense at the time, Cruz has been all over the map as it relates to Trump.  It's hurt him.  Badly.

Cruz's failures deserve their own blog post, but where national/Presidential factors cost the GOP 5 points, Cruz's personal failures cost him an additional 2.5 points in his own race.

It was the type of campaign David Dewhurst might have run.

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Godawful messaging:

Off the top of your head, what was the Texas GOP's message this year?!?

We can come up with two things: Abbott's MS-13 ad and the U.S. Senate's race's detour into the NFL protests; Chris Hooks has a longer list of some of the dumber aspects of this campaign here.

In recent years, the Texas GOP has run intellectually lazy general election campaigns against the boogeyman du jour.  They've stopped making a proactive case for liberty.  It's the old adage: Tell me what your for, not what you're against.

Not very long ago, it wasn't this way.  In 2010, Rick Perry campaigned on the tenth amendment.  In 2012, Cruz campaigned on restoring the federal government to its constitutional role.  In 2014, Abbott campaigned on the sanctity of life and fixing traffic.

In 2018, we got a lot less of that.

Imagine, instead, a world where Abbott spent the final months of the campaign talking about property taxes while Cruz spent the final month talking about health care freedom.

We suspect a lot of down-ballot Republicans wish they had.

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Voter Fraud:

We have no specific knowledge of specific cases.  But only a fool would discount the possibility.  Especially in the close races (look at Florida and Arizona).

As Hugh Hewitt famously wrote: "If it's not close, they can't cheat."

Unfortunately, for the reasons listed above, Republicans let it get close.

Who knows?!?

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Corrupt/Atrophied GOP leadership/infrastructure in Williamson and Hays Counties:

For many years, Republicans in Williamson and Hays counties have been more interested in crony capitalism than conservative governance.

For many years, activists warned the GOP leadership in those respective counties that such a course of action would wipe them out if a Democrat wave emerged.

That happened on Tuesday; especially in Hays.

Both county parties have needed a housecleaning for years.  Now they might get one.
They should both follow Montgomery County's lead.

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O'Rourke:

Given the myriad GOP failures, it's tough to know how much he created for himself.

At a minimum, he recognized the opportunity early and went for it.

There's no denying his fundraising haul was impressive.

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Bottom Line: There are any number of reasons why things went down the way that they did.  We need to address what we can.  But the scary part is how much was beyond our control.

Lessons for the Texas GOP:
1) Trump-like personality/demeanor is detrimental in the suburbs.
2) Failing to campaign on the GOP's natural advantage on pocketbook issues like tax reform in a personable manner is stupid.
3) There is no political campaign Jeff Roe cannot screw up.

— Michael Openshaw (@mopenshaw) November 7, 2018

WillCo Democrats Import Hollywood Liberal

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

Yesterday, Jimmy Flannigan tweeted:

I'm not one that gets star-struck but Natalie Portman is standing between my and @MayorAdler signs at the campaign office of @mjhegar @BucyForTexas @karltm

But @statesman - that office is in Austin #atxd6, not Cedar Park! https://t.co/lps8IyBTmo

— Jimmy Flannigan (@JimmyFlannigan) October 25, 2018

We had originally intended to rip on Jimmy for going to this event in the middle of the workday despite this ongoing water DEBACLE.  But clicking through the Statesman link, it doesn't appear that he was there.  So no harm, no foul, towards Jimmy (on this topic).

But this does beg another question: What the heck are the WillCo Democrats thinking?!?

It's not a secret that people can't stand being lectured about politics by celebrities.  Yet that's how WillCo D's choose to present themselves.  If you're wondering why John Carter will (probably) survive the midterm, this is a good example of why.

Y'all do realize this district includes Bell County, right?!?

Bottom Line: This is a good way to confirm every stereotype about Democrats in existence....

Carter is probably safe (for the midterm)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The New York Times (of all places) just released a poll on the closer than expected Congressional race in Williamson county:

Carter looks likely to survive this year.  But these numbers are still soft.  And there's other polling that suggests the race is much closer.

As we've discussed previously, anyone who doesn't see a gigantic liability in a Presidential year is fooling themselves.

The geographic vote distribution tells the story. Round Rock and Cedar Park are bad.  Georgetown is still red, though not as red as it used to be.  Bell County looks solid (but it's not the major population center).

Bottom Line: Carter's number's are fine for this year.  In a Presidential year, however, we're spooked.  Consider yourselves warned.

John Carter will probably survive this year (but he's still a putz who DESPERATELY needs a Primary)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The Trib has an interesting write up about the allegedly closer-than-expected race in CD-31.  The race features an eight term incumbent Williamson County RINO against a Democrat who's an Afghanistan veteran with a compelling life story.  In a midterm year, the underlying partisanship of the district will probably hold.  But anyone who doesn't see a liability emerging for a Presidential year is FOOLING themselves.

The Trib explains:

Amid all of this money, Texas Republican operatives interviewed for this story expressed fear that [John Carter's opponent] poses an existential threat to Carter's political career and that he's not adequately prepared organizationally or financially.

...

There are a few reasons some in GOP circles fear a perfect storm is brewing against Carter. Perhaps the one quietly discussed the most is that the mechanics, fundraising and tactics of modern campaigning have changed dramatically since his first successful run more than 15 years ago and he hasn't kept up.

BINGO; John Carter is an aloof putz.

The phrase "out of touch" has become a political cliche.  But it still applies in certain circumstances.  Carter looks like one of those circumstances.

In the viral video that made her campaign politically viable, John Carter's opponent explained her reason for running.  Several years ago, she sought a meeting with Carter to discuss expanding opportunities for women in combat.  Carter's office refused to meet with her because she wasn't a campaign donor.

Say whatever you want about the wisdom of putting women in combat but, regardless, JOHN CARTER'S BEHAVIOR IS INDEFENSIBLE.  He should have, at least, taken the meeting and politely listened.  He couldn't manage that.

It's the type of unforced error that only an eight-term incumbent, who's grown waaaaay to comfortable in the swamp, could make.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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What's happening right now in CD-31 is very similar to what we feared could have happened in CD-21 if Lamar Smith had tried to run for re-election.

The Democrat candidate in that race is also a veteran.  Had Lamar been the Republican nominee, it would have set up a spry veteran vs. aloof incumbent.  A year ago, we were very worried that Lamar could get caught napping.

Fortunately, Lamar had the good sense to not run.  With Chip Roy as the nominee, the GOP is expected to hold CD-21 comfortably.  This is a lesson Williamson and Bell counties would do well to heed next cycle.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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Then there's this:

In touting his support for a border wall, Carter playfully joked about building a second wall, a political one between Williamson County and its more liberal neighbor, Travis County.

“It’s time to build that wall," Carter said. "If you don’t want people from Austin, liberals like the folks who most of us moved up here to get away from, if you don’t want them running ... you gotta wake up with this election."

In other words: While your opponent is talking about how you won't meet with anyone who isn't a campaign donor, your response is cheap, lazy, Austin-bashing?!?

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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Bottom Line: Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

WillCo RINO who opposed #TXLEGE property tax reform caught PERSONALLY Profiting from Property Tax Foreclosures

"For everyone practicing evil hates the light and does not come to the light, lest his deeds should be exposed."
John 3:20

[Note: H/T to Empower Texans, we suggest you read their whole piece.]

There are few political hypocrites more loathsome than Williamson County "Republicans" who use a thin veneer of Austin-bashing to misdirect from their own crony capitalist misadventures; via KXAN:



You owe it to yourself to watch the full six minute report, but we'll excerpt the gist:

When Ken Tuck walked out to his Creek Ridge Lane mailbox last month, he didn’t know it, but he was walking right into some costly legal trouble.

He pulled an envelope from the box and the first thing he noticed was a law firm’s name in the top left corner: McCreary, Veselka, Bragg & Allen, P.C. The letter made it clear what this was about.

"NOTICE OF INTENT TO FILE FORECLOSURE LAWSUIT" was written across the top. Williamson County, Round Rock, Round Rock Independent School District all wanted tax dollars Tuck owed them. The total 2016 tax bill was $2,312.58.

....

He also didn’t know his mayor was the man behind the tax collection efforts, which led to the letter he was holding. That is, until we told him about it.

....

In 2013, the Round Rock City Council gave MVBA the right to do whatever it takes—legally—to collect millions of dollars from Round Rock businesses and city taxpayers. Since then, the law firm has collected nearly $622,000 in past due library fines, court fines and property taxes, according to city and Williamson County records.

The MVBA website shows, Round Rock Mayor Craig Morgan heads one of the most lucrative arms of the law firm—the one responsible for Williamson County and Round Rock tax collections.

The KXAN report goes on to detail three separate contracts Round Rock Mayor Craig Morgan's law firm received related to collection activity for various governmental entities in Williamson county; the TL,DR version:

The city told KXAN it did not put any of the three contracts out for competitive bidding, citing a state law that allows professional service contracts to be handed out without a bid process. That means a competing law firm would have had no way to know the contracts the city gave MVBA were up for grabs.

The city provided invoicing to KXAN showing $520,947.68 paid to MVBA between 2013 and August 2017 for municipal court and library collections. Williamson County tax office records show another $101,031.37 paid to MVBA on property tax collections.

Round Rock has a total of $2.2 million in delinquent taxes as of this report. If MVBA collected all outstanding Round Rock delinquent taxes, the firm would pocket $335,485. MVBA could earn $1.8 million if it collected all outstanding WIlliamson County taxes today.

This could be a local story of political corruption in Williamson County, except for one recent tidbit.

In late June, well-respected local activist Jeremy Story announced his campaign for HD-52.  HD-52 includes Round Rock.  At the time, Story was launching a primary challenge to Larry Gonzales, though Gonzales' subsequent retirement has re-classified this as an open seat race.



And how, pray tell, did Round Rock Mayor Craig Morgan react to Jeremy's announcement?!?

In other words, it turns out that a local official who "doth protested too much" during the legislative debate over property taxes earlier this year was personally drawing income from property tax foreclosures.

Bottom Line:  We don't have time to lead it, but he deserves a recall campaign.

WillCo residents file lawsuit to remove Duty....

"For the mouth of the wicked and the mouth of the deceitful
Have opened against me;
They have spoken against me with a lying tongue."
Psalm 109:2

Awesome:

Two Williamson County residents sued District Attorney Jana Duty on Monday, seeking to force her out of office after she was sanctioned this month by the State Bar of Texas and served jail time last year for violating a gag order.

The Texas Constitution provides that county officials may be removed for incompetency and official misconduct, the lawsuit says.

“Duty’s serial violations of court orders and the laws of the State of Texas, her history and pattern of dishonesty and untrustworthiness, and her dereliction and abandonment of her responsibilities of the office of the District Attorney have compromised the integrity and the effectiveness of the office … and the Williamson County criminal justice system,” the lawsuit says.

....

The suit asks that a district judge temporarily suspend Duty and appoint another person to serve as district attorney until Shawn Dick — who beat Duty in the Republican primary in March — takes office in January. The lawsuit requested a jury trial.

[h/t: Lawerence Person's Battleswarm Blog]

Then there's this (we know we shouldn't celebrate it, but this tactic has been used so many times against our guys that's it's hard to not indulge a little shadenfreude seeing the shoe on the other foot):

Duty is responsible for paying her own legal fees

Read the whole thing here.

Williamson County establishment (correctly) throws Jana DUTY under the bus!!!

"For the mouth of the wicked and the mouth of the deceitful
Have opened against me;
They have spoken against me with a lying tongue."
Psalm 109:2

Following yesterday's news about the grotesquely awful Jana Duty, it looks like the WillCo good ol' boy network is (to its credit) piling on:

GEORGETOWN — Williamson County business leaders stood outside the county courthouse Wednesday morning to deliver an ultimatum to District Attorney Jana Duty: resign or be forced out.

“I, along with other community leaders, demand that Jana Duty step down and resign her position as district attorney of Williamson County by sunset this Friday,” said Jim Schwertner, owner of Schwertner Farms, a cattle trading enterprise.

“If she does not, we will petition the court to have her removed as district attorney of Williamson County,” he said.

A group of about 20 people stood on the courthouse steps to show their support for Schwertner’s position.

Schwertner said he was asking for Duty’s resignation because of the recent sanction against her by the State Bar of Texas and also because she wasn’t showing up to work.

He said that Duty “admitted she was not truthful in statements she made to others, she admitted to violating a court order, she admitted to being dishonest and deceitful, and she admitted again knowingly making false statements to judges with reckless disregard for the truth.”

The State Bar put Duty on probation for 18 months beginning June 1 for unprofessional conduct.

[h/t Lawerence Person's Battleswarm Blog]

Read the whole thing here.

Bottom Line: Couldn't happen to a nicer 'human being'; we almost hope they're forced to sue for no other reason than to give her a couple hundred grand in legal bills on the way out the door....

State Bar places Jana Duty ON PROBATION!!!

"For the mouth of the wicked and the mouth of the deceitful
Have opened against me;
They have spoken against me with a lying tongue."
Psalm 109:2

The awful outgoing Williamson County DA, who first came to our attention when she tried to send some poor kid to prison for life for a couple pot brownies and subsequently got busted suppressing evidence in a capital murder trial, has gotten a small taste of what she so richly deserves:

The State Bar of Texas has placed Williamson County District Attorney Jana Duty on probation for 18 months. Duty will still be able to practice law but will have to comply with the terms of her probation. She was not immediately available for comment Monday.

The probation is for professional misconduct in connection to the Crispin Harmel case, according to a probated suspension judgment from the State Bar. It put Duty on probation starting June 1 and ending Nov. 30, 2017, according to its website.

A district judge ruled that Duty had withheld evidence in the case that ended in a mistrial.

[h/t: Lawerence Person's Battleswarm Blog]

Truthfully, she deserves far worse, but this is a start; read the whole thing here.

Duty lost in the March primary to (Cahnman's Musings endorsed) Shawn Dick; Dick will assume office in January.

Our FINAL Round of 2016 Primary Endorsements

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

[Author's Note: You can see our first round of endorsements here and our second round here.]

With election day 11 days away, we make the following endorsements:

STATEWIDE (Judicial)

Ray Wheless, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 2:

We've previously discussed this race. In Texas, there is a separate judicial track for civil and criminal cases.  The Court of Criminal Appeals is the highest criminal court in Texas and is the equivalent of the Texas Supreme Court.

We first became interested in this race when we realized that the corrupt judge whose unethical activities led to his recusal in the Ken Paxton case was one of the three candidates.  That candidate is a disgrace to the legal profession against whom we've filed a complaint with the state commission on judicial conduct.  We've heard conflicting reports about the second candidate, but at best nothing excites us.

Ray Wheless spoke at the Central Texas Republican Assembly's November meeting.  We were impressed by his knowledge and legal acumen.  Judge Wheless is from Collin County, where he has held a variety of judicial positions.

UNITED STATES HOUSE

Anyone but Pete, CD-32:

We've documented our differences with Pete Sessions over the years.  As a member of House leadership, Pete Sessions has been a key player in every Republican betrayal we've seen out of D.C. in the Obama era.  As recently as December, Pete Sessions voted for a grotesque spending bill.

In addition to his awful actions on policy related matters, Pete Sessions is also a RAGING jerk; in many ways, Pete Session is the Byron Cook of the United States House of Representatives.

We've heard good things about all of the challengers.  We haven't had an opportunity to differentiate them in an detail, but against Pete Session it doesn't matter.  #NoRePete.

TEXAS HOUSE

Jess Fields, HD-14:

We've known Jess Fields for several years due to his work with the Texas Public Policy Foundation.  We've been impressed with his sharp wit and incisive sense of humor.  We expect Jess Fields to give Jonathan Stickland a run for his money on the back mic.

Jess Fields is a prominent supporter of the liberty cities movement.  Liberty cities are a creative solution that undermines big city governments.  We like creative solutions that undermine big government.

Unfortunately, he's a dirty stinking Aggie, but that's probably an advantage in a district that includes College Station.

WILLIAMSON COUNTY

Shawn Dick, District Attorney:

Shawn Dick is challenging a DISGRACEFUL incumbent with whom we've had issues for many years.  This is the DA that tried to lock up some kid for life over a couple pot brownies and suppressed evidence in a capital murder case.  We've also heard from folks in the WillCo legal community that lower profile abuses happen every day in that office.

In addition to his time as a prosecutor, Shawn Dick has also worked as a defense attorney.  When someone is making decisions that could take away someone else's freedom, we think it's a good thing for that person to have been on the other side of the courtroom.  Speaking of the disgraceful incumbent, she actually had the nerve to attack him over this.

A vote for Shawn Dick is a vote for basic ethics and integrity in a critically important office.

Bill Kelberlau, Sheriff:

Bill Kelberlau is running to be a constitutional sheriff.  For those unaware, local sheriffs have a TREMENDOUS amount of authority to stop the Federal government from enforcing unconstitutional laws.  Milwaukee County (Wisconsin) Sheriff David Clarke is probably the highest profile constitutional sheriff today.

Bill grew up in South Texas and spent 30 years in the Navy in a variety of sensitive position.  That background leaves him well-prepared for the challenges he will face in law enforcement.  Bill Kelberlau also testified at Don Zimmerman's Austin City Council hearing on Syrian 'refugees' and, considering that a sliver of Austin extends into Willco, having Bill Kelberlau around to drive the Austin City Council NUTS is worth the price of admission all by itself.

When Donald Trump comes for our guns, Williamson County is going to want Bill Kelberlau as Sheriff.

TRAVIS COUNTY

Jason Nassour, Commissioner's Court (Precinct 3):

We started noticing problems with the incumbent last year when he was a loud and prominent supporter of the Courthouse bond on the Commissioner's Court.  That right there should tell you something.  Why was the lone REPUBLICAN on the commissioner's court loudly supporting a $300 million boondoggle that would only benefit rich downtown lawyers?!?  But it gets worse.  He's recently taken a number of other screwy votes.  We've also discovered recently that he's given money to Kirk Watson.  The incumbent is a good guy, but he's clearly been working in government for too long.

Jason Nassour, by contrast, is an entrepreneur who owns several well known local radio stations.  A newcomer to politics, Nassour was motivated to run for office by the incumbent's support for the Courthouse bond.  Jason Nassour wants to sell all county property within the city limits and use the proceeds to build a new multi-use county facility FOR CASH in an unincorporated area.  Have we mentioned we like creative solutions?!?

The debate last month between Jason Nassour and the incumbent speaks for itself, you can view it for yourself here.

James Dickey, Travis County Republican Party Chairman:

Since James Dickey became county chairman two years ago, the Travis County Republican party helped put the first two conservatives EVER on the Austin City Council.  The Travis County Republican party has a DA candidate on the ballot for the first time since we've lived here.  Finally, we learned last week that the Travis County Republican Party actually has more precinct chairs at the moment than the D's.

With a property tax revolt and an affordability crisis at hand, the issue environment favors conservative solutions in an obvious way.  We've had discussions with James Dickey about specific ways to address these issues, and we intend to ramp up those discussions after March 1st.  Why mess with a good thing?!?

One note about James' challenger: Robert Morrow is a friend and patriot.  He does valuable work in the areas to which his talents are suited.  The job of county chairman, however, is a poor match for Robert's strong suits.

Meet the moderate, pro-"Temporary Worker Program," state representative leading Marco Rubio's Texas Campaign....

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Author's Note: We don't want to write this piece.  Unlike many of his colleagues in the Texas House, Representative Gonzales is a good guy with good taste in baseball and football teams.  That being said, when a Presidential campaign makes him their public surrogate, his policy views are fair game.]

On Thursday afternoon, Marco Rubio's presidential campaign rolled out its Texas Leadership Team:

Team Marco Rolls Out Texas Leadership Team

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January 7, 2016

Texas State Representatives James Frank and Larry Gonzales, along with former legislators Linda Harper-Brown and Martha Wong, are leading up efforts for Marco in the Lone Star State.

In addition to leading his Texas Campaign, Larry Gonzales introduced Rubio at an event in Dallas. This was notable.  To understand why, we first need to review the Republican Party of Texas' recent history.

"The Texas Solution" was an immigration related plank added to the 2012 Republican party of Texas platform under shady circumstances; as the author of "The Texas Solution" explained later that summer:

The Texas Immigration Solution reallocates our law enforcement resources to focus on securing our borders and defeating the drug cartels and human traffickers. The Texas Immigration Solution also proposes a 21st-century temporary worker program.

[Author's Note: Emphasis added.]

"The Texas Solution" proved itself to be very controversial among rank and file Republicans and it was subsequently repealed in the 2014 Platform:

FORT WORTH — After several hours of debate Saturday, the final day of the biennial state GOP convention, Republican delegates voted to remove the "Texas Solution" from the party’s official platform, reverting to a more hardline stance on immigration.

About 8,000 delegates gathered to consider the party platform and eventually rejected a proposed immigration plank that included language calling for a provisional visa program for immigrants. In its place, they adopted a plank that echoes the party’s 2010 platform. It does not call for a guest-worker program and instead calls for ending in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants and prohibiting sanctuary cities — municipalities that do not enforce immigration laws.

While the platform is a nonbinding set of principles for the party, it sets forth a powerful political statement of the party’s stance on key voting issues in an important election year.

Now what does this have to do with Larry Gonzales (and, subsequently, Marco Rubio)?!?

During the time in question, Larry Gonzales was one of the most prominent public supporters of "The Texas Solution."  While this author didn't attend the 2012 RPT convention, we very clearly remember Gonzales leading the charge to save it in 2014.  As he explained in this 2013 interview:

Well, as you know, in Texas we’ve passed the Texas Solution. So take Texas, the reddest of the red states, with the 9,000 of the reddest of the red delegates, we actually passed a temporary guest worker program. We recognized a need for that here in Texas. There is a threshold to be met to qualify for the program and the threshold is pretty high. A couple of instances, it says that the employer of the guest worker must pay all their private insurance. The guest worker waives any and all rights for entitlement programs, they must have a course and be proficient in English, they have to take an American civics course, the employer must pay all necessary taxes, withhold taxes. So there’s a really good threshold in order for them to work here, it’s not something easily attained, but it’s out there and this is Texas’ way of saying we’ve come to the table and we’ve talked the issues and it’s important we’ve passed it because in my opinion, the Democrats will never come to us to fix this solution for us. They won’t do it because the unresolved immigration issues are more powerful to them than resolved. They can win more elections, and they can rally more votes, and they can stir more fear and blame toward Republicans if the issues stay unresolved. Resolved, they have little leverage against Republicans. So the significant of passing the Texas Solution is it puts us in the position to say “We’ve started the conservation, please join us,” but I guarantee they won’t because it’s just better for them as a party for those issues to stay unresolved…It gives them a rallying call. It might not of been perfect, there may be things you like or don’t like, but it is an opportunity to say we’ve started the conversation, join us, and let’s see if they do.

And THAT'S the guy Marco Rubio chose to lead his Texas campaign.

Bottom Line: Actions speak louder than words; for Marco Rubio to select one of the most prominent public supporters of "the Texas Solution" to lead his Presidential campaign in the Lone State State speaks VOLUMES about where his sentiments really lie.

Public Safety committee STIFFS Zimmerman (and Abbott) over Syrian "Refugees"

Council Members Don Zimmerman, Ora Houston, and Greg Casar

"Bread gained by deceit is sweet to a man,
But afterward his mouth will be filled with gravel."
Proverbs 20:17



This afternoon, the Austin City Council's Public Safety Committee rejected Council member Don Zimmerman's (Far Northwest Austin) resolution to support Governor Abbott's refusal to participate in the Obama administrations Syrian 'refugee' resettlement program.  Council members Ora Houston (East Austin) and Greg Casar (Northeast Austin) voted against the resolution, Zimmerman voted for it.  Council Member Leslie Pool was not present.

Colonel Clarke Straughn testified first.  He fully supported the Governor and Council member Zimmerman.  Straughn pointed out that some of the Paris bombers entered Europe as 'refugees.'  He reminded the committee about the 2013 threat against Sixth Street.  Zimmerman asked him several questions.

Multiple representatives from the local refugee resettlement agency Caritas spoke against the resolution.  Their message was essentially: "trust the Feds."  They described how the alleged 'refugees' would be 'vetted' by the NSA, the CIA, and the State Department.  We find it difficult to think of three Federal agencies we trust less (though they could have thrown in the Federal Reserve and IRS for good measure).  Putting it mildly, the Federal Government does not deserve our trust.

To be fair, the Caritas representatives may have given a decent description of how the refugee program has functioned in the past.  But if anyone trusts the lawless Obama administration to maintain the program as it has existed historically, we have some mineral rights in South Texas we would LOVE to sell them.  Seriously, they cited the freakin' NSA favorably....

Two other people, including Williamson County Sheriff Candidate Bill Kelberlau, also testified in favor of Zimmerman's resolution.  They pointed out that Syria doesn't have the capability to share the information the United States would need to properly vet these folks.  Kelberlau also discussed the need for a "comprehensive risk analysis."

This author had also signed up to testify, but we were pushed back to citizens communication due to time constraints and decided not to wait until the end of the hearing.  Had we testified, we would have pointed out the similarities between the discussion Austin is having and the sanctuary city policies in San Francisco that led to the tragic murder of Kate Steinle this past summer.  Remember, the pro-Sanctuary City Sheriff of San Francisco county LOST his election earlier this month following Steinle's murder.

Bottom Line: Given how the votes on Council are structured (for now), the fix was in on this hearing before it began.  It still was a useful discussion to have and got several more Council members on the record.  If, God forbid, something happens a la Kate Stienle in San Francisco, the Council members who promoted this recklessly INSANE policy are going to OWN it.