Thursday, August 29, 2019

Cuellar's (Democrat) Primary is going to be FASCINATING to Watch

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

The Texan writes up the race for the Democrat nomination in CD-28:
Before a crowd gathered by the Texas Oil and Gas Association (TXOGA), South Texas Energy & Economic Roundtable (STEER), and the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (SAHCC), Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28) not only lauded bipartisanship but derided the much-discussed “Green New Deal.”

The stance was more than a little ironic considering the location — San Antonio’s Pearl Stable — being in the very city which earlier this year introduced its own version of the “Green New Deal.”

“At the state and federal level, we must advance energy policies that promote responsible, safe energy development,” Cuellar asserted at the beginning of his keynote speech.

Speaking to the importance of energy production for not only America but Texas specifically, Cuellar stated, “If Texas was a sovereign country, it would rank third in natural gas production behind the United States and Russia.”

Natural gas is a pivotal, if not the pivotal, component of Texas’ ongoing energy boom.


Specifically, about the Green New Deal, Cuellar posited, “Somebody’s got to pay for this.”

The plan has been estimated to cost upwards of $93 trillion, which Cuellar contrasted with our current $4 trillion per year expenditures.

Cuellar added, “How are we going to replace all the energy jobs lost if this were to be implemented?”

To Cuellar, there is a happy medium between tossing aside fossil fuels and spurning renewable energy altogether. He says it focuses on reliability, feasibility, and research.

Cuellar is facing primary challenger Jessica Cisneros, who is backed by Justice Democrats — the organization from which Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) sprung to prominence.

Cisneros is a supporter of the national Green New Deal.

Political races in South Texas tend to swing on which campaigns give politiqueras more 'walking around' money (Hint: Usually incumbents).   The degree to which actual 'issues' are at play varies.  Nevertheless, two worthwhile considerations:
  1. This part of the state is pretty dadgum socially conservative.
  2. Lots of people in this part of the state work in the energy industry.
Consider the map of CD-28 (left) vs. the Eagle Ford Shale (right):

It doesn't take a genius to see those territories overlap.

Given that backdrop, it's tough to see a D.S.A. backed pro-Abortion/anti-Fossil fuels candidate gaining tractions.

That being said, "tough to see" does not mean "impossible."

If D.S.A. types were to start gaining traction, it could start a chain reaction that would be riveting to watch.

[Note: On Monday, we wrote about the race for a Texas STATE Senate seat that overlaps this Congressional district.  We still think that's a likely D hold (in the short term).  However, if Cuellar were to actually get popped in the primary, that's the one circumstance under which we could see the seat flipping.]

Bottom Line: We tend to be of the opinion that incumbency will prevail, but if it doesn't....

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