Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

How did the Democrats not make Paxton a campaign issue?!?


"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

For most of October, we ran a quiet test of Texas Democrats' political competence: Would they make Ken Paxton's various "alleged" misdeeds a campaign issue?!?

They didn't.

It's astounding when you think about it:
  • Right wing, Christian conservative elected official (who you already hate) is accused of bribery and adultery a month before the election.
  • His closest friends and allies have either abandoned him or have him on **VERY** thin ice
  • .As an opposition party, you claim to be making your biggest push in decades.

And yet, for all that, the Democrats let Paxton slide.

It doesn't take a genius to imagine the political ads: "Texas doesn't need corrupt Republicans like Ken Paxton and Craig Goldman/Morgan Meyer/Jeff Leach/etc. vote for [Insert Democrat candidates name here]." There's got to be stock photos or b-reel footage of all of the afore mentioned officals with Paxton. It's also the perfect topic for mailers.

This is Politics 101 type stuff when a member of the other party is enmeshed in scandal.

Texas Democrats didn't do any of it.

But, you know, let's have another ten zillion ads about "pre-existing conditions" and silly hysteria about "voter supression" in Harris County.

Bottom Line: If you're curious why Texas won't go blue anytime soon, this is a pretty good example.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

#tx2020: Status Quo (in the short term)


"For the vision is yet for an appointed time;
But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie.
Though it tarries, wait for it;
Because it will surely come,
It will not tarry."
Habakkuk 2:3

To summarize:
  • Trump wins Texas comfortably.
  • Cornyn wins even bigger.
  • Partisan split of Congressional Delegation and Texas house remain identical.
  • D's gain Senate seat they were widely expected to win...by narrower than expected margin.
  • D's finally gain SBOE seat that was drawn to elect a Democrat ten years ago, that they'd previously blown twice.
None of this is surprising.

In terms of basic partisanship, there's a lot of reasons to be bullish if you're a Republican. Managed properly, conservatives should benefit as well. More in due time.

But Texas is going to remain an R+10 state for the forseeable future.

Bottom Line: There was never a good reason to believe otherwise, but the question has been answered.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

#tx2020: Huffines offers $5k reward for verifiable information re: Election Fraud


"Do not remove the ancient landmark,
Nor enter the fields of the fatherless;"
Proverbs 23:10

Interesting:
A former Texas state senator is offering $5,000 rewards out of his own pocket for tips on voter fraud that lead to criminal convictions in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

"For me, the foundation of our country is to make sure we have fair and honest elections. ... This is a nonpartisan issue," former state Sen. Don Huffines told Fox News on Tuesday. "The most important thing that really matters in an election is who counts the votes."

Huffines reward applies to individuals who call or email tips to Direct Action Texas, an election integrity organization. Huffines promised to keep all tips in confidence.

His offer is meant to be a "broad sweep" to track down ballot harvesting, noncitizens voting or even software manipulation, Huffines said.

"I’m happy to pay it," Huffines said. "Hopefully I don’t have to, but I am committed to doing what I can."
Bottom Line: We'll never know what happened in Dallas county in 2018, but it's good to see real time efforts this time around.

Monday, November 2, 2020

#atxcouncil, ProjectConnect: The Ultimate Cautionary Example

Exit 96th st. and Second Ave


"Understanding is a wellspring of life to him who has it.
But the correction of fools is folly."
Proverbs 16:22

We just finished reading "The Last Subway: The Long Wait for the Next Train in New York City," by Philip Mark Plotch.  We're not going to do a full book review (although there's a very good one here), because most of the conclusions are obvious.  Nevertheless, for those interested in that level of detail, we strongly recommend Plotch's book.

We snapped the above photo during our recent trip to New York City. We had to see it. Because we never thought it would happen in our lifetime.

Obviously, we’ve all heard horror stories of construction projects taking years, if not decades, longer than anticipated to complete. Ten years. Twenty years. If you’ve been following the subject long enough, you’ve seen the examples.

But how about 113 years?!?

Because that’s how long it took New York City’s second avenue subway line to materialize after being originally proposed.

From the moment the system opened in 1903, a second avenue line was planned. Unfortunately, due to a combination of economic fluctuations, political incompetence, and the general arc of history, it never got done. Finally, in 2017 (ie. Just four years ago), a very truncated version finally came online.

The ‘completed’ version added a mere three stops, from what was originally envisioned as a Bronx to Brooklyn line. This despite the fact that project costs ballooned from an anticipated $300 million to over $4.6 Billion. Thus, did the second avenue subway become one of the most expensive per mile infrastructure projects in American history.

What does this mean for Austin?!?

Austin voters will are being asked to approve a gargantuan tax increase to fund the city council’s light rail proposal. Rail proponents claim their project will cost $7.1 Billion and that construction will take around a decade.

Given council’s long standing lack of credibility, there’s every reason to be skeptical of the numbers they’re selling. Still, it’s impossible to know what the final totals will be. All you know for sure is that the numbers are likely to be much higher.

The Second avenue subway, however, is a real world example where “the numbers are likely to be much higher” means fifteen times the cost and a full century behind schedule.

Bottom Line: We really would be well served to avoid making this obvious and predictable mistake.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

#atxcouncil: Attacking Trump (while asking for money)


"An evildoer gives heed to false lips;
A liar listens eagerly to a spiteful tongue."
Proverbs 17:4

Mobility for All” is the establishment aligned political action committee promoting Project Connect. They recently sent out the above mailer. Not surprisingly, it attempts to cast citizens concerned about the initiative’s 25% tax hike as captives of a cabal of non-binary, non-gendered, boogiepersons in the minds of liberal Austinites.

But for as much as the views of “weapons dealers” may or may not swing the election, one choice of target is: Trump Inauguration Attendees.

Because, whether they want to admit it or not, Project Connect’s supporters are the ones asking Donald Trump for money.

As the trade publication “Mass Transit mag” explained this summer: “CapMetro will now pursue 45 percent federal funding of this $7.1 billion, with a local match for the remaining funding coming through a voter-approved tax rate election for Project Connect.”

Whether or not they want to admit it, right now that means asking Donald Trump for the money. Obviously, Biden could [Note: Probably will] win.  But Austin voters have to make their decision on Project Connect BEFORE they know the answer to that question.

On the other hand, asking 45 (Trump) for 45 (percent of the funding for Project Connect) is an amusingly ironic set of numbers.

Bottom Line: Seriously, y'all are the ones asking him for money, not us.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

#TXLEGE: Abbott's Campaign Spending suggests GOP in good shape in Texas house



"and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
Matthew 16:3


Thoughts:
  • It's fascinating that he's spending more on two central Texas districts currently held by Democrats than anywhere else.  Since he's Greg Abbott, he must obviously have polling data that suggests this is a good investment.  Think our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding policy had anything to do with this?!?
  • Steve Allison won in 2018 by close to ten points, it's hard to imagine him being in real trouble.
  • That being said, Abbott seems to have completely written off Lacey Hull and Morgan Meyer.
  • The only incumbent on this list who seems any realistic shot at losing is Jeff Leach, but even that one doesn't seem like a done deal.
    • Note: If Leach actually wins, it likely means R's gain seats in the chamber.
  • We'll see what happens with Matt Shaheen, but we'd be surprised if any of the seats below him on this list flip.
  • All of which is to suggest there will be between 80 and 86 R's in the Texas house next session.
    • Note: Absent our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding actions, that range is probably 78 to 84.
Remember: Abbott polls EVERYTHING.

Bottom Line: While there might be some tinkering around the edges, something roughly resembling the status quo seems likely to prevail.

Monday, October 26, 2020

Screwy results in DMN/UT-Tyler poll


"Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits, whether they are of God; because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1

[Note: While we were working on this blog post, the Hobby School at U of H released a poll that's likely much closer to reality.  Unfortunately, they didn't poll on Abbott or "issues."  So it makes an apples to apples comparison difficult.  Nevertheless, the U of H poll is consistent with the Texas Tribune poll from a couple weeks ago.]

There's been a poll making the rounds that alleges Biden is up by three statewide. It's being promoted by the ususal suspects for the obvious reasons. But consider some of the other results from the same poll.

Abbott overall job approval:


In other words, they're claiming Abbott has a 20 point net positive rating.  Maybe a year ago.  Not today.

Abbott COVID job approval:

Abbott at 52% approval on COVID is some LOL territory.

Police defunding in various idioms:


That's consistent with of private polling we've seen on the City of Austin on those two issues...but we've got to imagine those policies are less popular statewise.

Bottom Line: Oceanfront property. Arizona. Etc.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Biden hands Texas GOP late gift...will they exploit it?!?


"For we do not commend ourselves again to you, but give you opportunity to boast on our behalf, that you may have an answer for those who boast in appearance and not in heart."
2 Corinthians 5:12

Wow:
“The oil industry pollutes significantly,” Biden said. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time. Over time.”
Not a lot to add. That remark speaks for itself. Its' negative impact on Texas is obvious.

We were actually in the process of writing a long post about whether the GOP would respond to this...when the Governor and John Cornyn released the following statement:

That's actually a good start. But this needs to reach saturation level. Between now and election day, Biden's remark about eliminating the energy industry as we know it has to be inescapable.

Bottom Line: They don't deserve this level of gift. But they got it. We'll see what they do with it.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

#TXSEN: Cornyn, meanwhile, WHINES about swear words


"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

LOL:

What a...ducking...gimp.

Does John Cornyn actually think anyone cares?!?

Cuz' they don't.

This is nothing new. When Hegar first entered this race, Cornyn's first attack was over modestly PG-13 level language. We addressed the lameness of that strategy at the time. There's nothing we can add today to what we've already said.

Bottom Line:  Cornyn's almost certainly fine.  Hegar's positions on the issues assure that.  Nevertheless, for Cornyn to castigate his opponent for having a personality highlights his own lack thereof.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar


"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:
A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”
We're of two minds about this:
  • Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
    • Note: This is the likely explanation.
** OR **
  • They know something the rest of us don't.
    • Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.
Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Huh?!?


"As a dog returns to his own vomit,
So a fool repeats his folly."
Proverbs 26:11

Umm...ok:


How...strange.

We will confess a certain degree of mixed feelings. Texas politics in general, and the Texas legislature specifically, is ripe for Seinfeld style satire. Done properly, it's potentially brilliant. Heaven knows, we already privately refer to a certain legislator as Kenny Bania.

But let's not kid ourselves: It won't be done properly. And this isn't about ridiculing the legislature. This is about Democrats trying to create buzz through Hollywood because they don't have anything substantive to say.

In that vein, it's completely tone deaf.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Seinfeld has a certain...geographic appeal. And the "geographic appeal" in question is certainly not Texas. While it's certainly the case that this author is a fan of the location in question, we're not exactly turning to them for political advice.

Put differently: Do you think anyone in New York City would care about what Hank Hill thinks?!?

Speaking of Hank Hill, it wouldn't have even been that difficult to do something similar with a Texas theme. King of the Hill. Matthew McConaughey. Heck, Bobby Francis O'Rourke did actual campaign events with Willie Nelson.

But, instead, Texas Democrats are going with George and Elaine from Seinfeld.

OK.

Bottom Line: We'll see how much it ultimately matters, but it's certainly a missed opportunity.

Friday, October 2, 2020

Revising and Extending Our Remarks on King Abbott's latest "proclamation"


"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

We may have jumped the gun a bit yesterday, PushJunction explains:
GREG ABBOTT did a thing yesterday that's being misrepresented in the media. Following the July run-off election, Abbott issued a proclamation expanding early voting for the November election.

In addition to expanding the early voting period, Abbott allowed for mail-in ballots to be returned in person on more than one day as permitted by law. Terrible negotiating with himself while Democrats sued and abused almost every election law on the books.

This isn’t the first time Abbott’s been a punching bag on the topic of election integrity.

During the legislative session, he threw a massive bone to Democrats by agreeing to a sweetheart settlement, stopping list maintenance activities kicked off by his then-Secretary of State.

The apparent deal, settlement for the late-session confirmation of a loyal employee, was spiked by Democrats.

The same thing happened here. Abbott gave election administrators an inch by allowing mail ballots to be turned in on more than one day, and lead by Chris Hollins and Dana DeBeauvoir, they took a mile by ballooning the number of drop sites.

Abbott returned a modicum of order yesterday. Now he needs to stop other illegal election activities to prevent them from being used in the future.
To the degree to which we drew an incorrect conclusion about the legality of this move, we apologize.

However, a couple points:
  • Given the way Abbott has acted in recent months, it's hard to avoid drawing any other conclusion.  After he's accused of behaving in a lawless manner, it's easy to assume the worst.  Abbott doesn't exactly have a lot of benefit of the doubt left on this topic.
  • That being said, why permit the single drop off location.  If Abbott is concluding, apparently correctly, that state law doesn't give county election administrators this authority...why is he allowing them to do it at all?!?  The policy is incoherent.
Bottom Line:  We suppose yesterday's announcement is a move in the right direction, but for the counternarrative to take hold so easily illustrates Abbott's squandered credibility.

Thursday, October 1, 2020

King Abbott issues "Proclamation""


"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

Wait, what?!?


A few points:
  1. Abbott doesn't have legal authority (not that that's ever stopped him).  Laws related to the conduct of elections require an act of the legislature to change.  Abbott's already getting sued over this subject.  He's probably going to get sued again.

  2. The underlying policy is incoherent.  If these drop off centers are bad, they should be completely eliminated.  If they aren't, there's nothing wrong with having a whole bunch of them.

  3. Dude's been being criticized for acting like a king for months, and responds by...issuing a "proclamation."
Bottom Line:  Obviously, Abbott's been doing this for months, but add another example to the list.

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

#TXLEGE/#SD 30: Springer Likely to move LEFT in runoff


"Therefore by their fruits you will know them."
Matthew 7:20

That answers that question:


Overall, solid showing for Luther. Weak performance for Springer. When you're an incumbent state rep, you should at least score in the mid-40's.

Moving forward, however, Springer's strategy is obvious: Pick up the 21% who voted for the Democrat. Springer's 32% + The Democrat's 21% = 53%. Given that there's basically zero chance Democrats will vote for Luther, it's basic arithmatic.

The runoff will probably look a lot like the 2014 U.S. Senate runoff in Mississippi.

If you're Shelley Luther...buckle up...cuz' you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Bottom Line: Democrats are the largest free agent block of voters in the runoff, and they only have one place to go.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

#TXLEGE: NOT BORRIS MILES!!!


"It is an abomination for kings to commit wickedness,
For a throne is established by righteousness."
Proverbs 16:12

Obviously, much ado yesterday about the ballot harvesting allegations in Harris County. A lot remains to be seen, and until that happens we don't have much to add. But this detail made us lol:
During my investigation, a core group of names continued to surface regarding the organization and operation of the voter fraud scheme. Witnesses have stated to me that Precinct 1 Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis and District 13 Texas State Senator Borris Miles are leading the illegal ballot harvesting operation in Harris County, Texas.
You don't say.

Borris Miles, for those of you who don't remember, is this guy. He's also this guy. He's also this guy.

Obviously, yesterday's disclosures were allegations. They will get a response. So don't jump to conclusions.

Still, for Borris Miles' name to be featured so prominently among the allegation is both a) Not surprising, and b) Kinda funny.

Bottom Line: Smoke, fire, etc....

Monday, September 28, 2020

LOL Wendy Davis Defending "Women's Health Centers"


"You also took up the tabernacle of Moloch,
And the star of your god Remphan,
Images which you made to worship;
And I will carry you away beyond Babylon."
Acts 7:43

We came across this piece of silliness over the weekend:



The relevant part is at the 0:16 mark: "I stood for thirteen hours straight to fight the shutdown of women's health centers."

Is...this a joke?!?   Cuz that's not how we remember that night.   Davis' actions in June 2013 might have had a thing or two to do with a thing or two beyond "women's health."

But, of course, late term abortion doesn't play well in the suburbs.

Obviously, Davis' strategy is to obscure that reality behind euphemistic, fuzzy, language. There's no way that would have worked five or six years ago. At this point, however, that history is far enough in the past that the average voter might have forgotten. It's the responsiblity of those who oppose Davis' candidacy to remind them.

Bottom Line: For those who remember the history, that claim is quite the act of chutzpah...but the real question is how many remember.

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

#TXLEGE/#SD30: Stickland sets record straight re: Springer's #2A history


"Every one of the builders had his sword girded at his side as he built. And the one who sounded the trumpet was beside me."
Nehemiah 4:18

With Drew Springer now claiming to support Constitutional Carry, it's worth reviewing the history:



Highlights:
  • Despite Stickland filing the bill each of the past three sessions, Springer never once co-authored.
  • RPT legislative priority for most of the past decade.
  • Over the years, Stickland asked Springer to sign onto the bill at least a dozen times.
  • Thousands of Springer's constituents in HD-68 signed the ConCarry petition.
  • In 2015, before he wanted a promotion, Springer publicly declined to support ConCarry.
  • "When Representative Springer had the chance, he let you down."

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

#TXLEGE/#SD30: Springer really MUST be losing


"Therefore receive one another, just as Christ also received us, to the glory of God."
Romans 15:7

[UPDATE: Apparently Springer posted this to twitter after this blog post went live.]

Well...this is silly:

 Shelley Luther sang a different tune about forced COVID-19 shutdowns before she realized she could use it for her...

Posted by Drew Springer on Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Take a look at the date on that Facebook post: March 16th.

Of course, Shelley Luther didn't reopen her salon until April 24.

Which almost suggests that, Shelly Luther went along with the shutdowns for several weeks (over a month). Futhermore, just maybe, she **MIGHT** have conculded during that time that the costs of the lockdowns far exceeded the alleged benefits of reducing COVID. Imagine that.

But all of the above is obvious. What's less obvious is why Springer would launch such an easily disproveable attack. It's impossible to know for sure, but history and logic suggest that Springer's polling must be TERRIBLE. Like, not even making the runoff terrible.

Bottom Line: Only in the mind of establishment politicians and their assorted sycophants could this have POSSIBLY been considered a good idea.

Monday, September 21, 2020

#TXLEGE/#SD30 Special: Fallon's Tantrum Against Luther


"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravenous wolves."
Matthew 7:15

We're not sure when this happened, but at some point in the past few days Pat Fallon got up in Shelley Luther's grill:



Thoughts:
  • Clearly, Fallon's rattled.
  • Fallon's body language, and constant interruptions, is never a good look for a man when talking with a woman.
    • It's called browbeating.
    • Even if that wasn't Fallon's intent, that's sure as heck what it looks like.
  • That being said, the degree to which Luther maintains her poise is impressive.
  • Fallon: "So you need to go to jail to be elected, that's your standard."
    • No, Pat, that's not what she said.
  • Fallon: "I'm 5% in on your race, do you want me to go all in?!?"
    • OK, jock boy.
    • If Fallon is acting like this much a buffoon at 5%, we'd love to see 100% buffonery.
  • Fallon: "Do you understand what sarcasm is?!?"
    • Translation: My attempt at gaslighting failed, so now I'm going to retreat by claiming I was never serious to begin with.
    • Dear Dudes: We don't know who needs to hear this (besides Pat Fallon), but mansplaining your alleged use of "sarcasm" to a woman is bad.

Bottom Line: Sometimes reactions tell you more than the initial action.

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

#TXLEGE: Miles/Murphy remain likely to get away with EVERYTHING


"It is an abomination for kings to commit wickedness,
For a throne is established by righteousness."
Proverbs 16:12

Back in February, we wrote the following:
#TXLEGE: Borris Miles, Jim Murphy and Bi-Partisan POLITICAL MALPRACTICE

The gist of the piece was that, in both parties, you had legislators enmeshed in serious scandals (financial in Murphy's case, sexual in Miles' case). Yet neither party was even attempting to make an issue out the other guy's stumbles. Gift horses, mouths, etc.

Well, here we are seven month later, and...nothing's changed.

Both Borris Miles and Jim Murphy are looking at a 95%(+) liklihood of being re-elected.

But the craziest part isn't they're both likely to be re-elected, it's that in neither case did anyone even attempt to embarrass them.

Bottom Line: If you want to understand the depressing reality of why government in this state is the way that it is, this is a pretty good place to start.