Runoff Elections 2020: What 2 Watch 4

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

With runoff elections today, here are some things on which to keep an eye. We don't claim this list is comprehensive. Nevertheless, it's what we'll be watching for.

Democrats:

• U.S. Senate -- We've been meaning to do a longer writeup on this topic for about six months, but haven't gotten around to it.  Nevertheless, MJ Hegar is, easily and by far, the most compelling Democrat to run for statewide office in at least a decade.  Royce West, by contrast, is a rather middling state senator.
  
  Cornyn's 100% safe against West. He's probably about 85% safe against Hegar. In the event, however, that Donald Trump and Greg Abbott continue to run the national/statewide environment into the ground, do NOT underestimate her.

• Travis County County/District Attorney -- While they aren't related, Delia and Jose Garza are running for those respective criminal justice positions on essentially pro-criminal platforms.  Woe unto all of us if either of them wins. Both are favorites.

• Dutton/Lucio -- Two of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature face unexpected runoffs.  Both seem likely to win comfortably...but we would have said that in the first round.  Major implications for next session if either falls short.

Republicans:

• Abbott's coattails -- Honestly, this is the only GOP question that matters right now.  Abbott's made a big show out of endorsing in five races.  In two others he's made endorsements that are essentially gimmes.
  
  Abbott really needs to run the table; if he loses more than one of these races, it's a **MAJOR** embarrassment.

• HD-60 (Francis/Rogers):  Foremost among races where Greg Abbott has run his mouth is this open seat race for an otherwise obscure state rep seat west of Ft. Worth.  Jon Francis is the consensus conservative candidate.  Abbott recently declared war on Francis' family.
  
  Ted Cruz, by contrast, has endorsed Francis.
  
  Abbott really needs his candidate (Glen Rodgers) to clear 60%.

• Morrow's race: Barring a (richly deserved) act of Divine retribution, the latest season of "Robert Morrow torments the Texas GOP" likely ends tonight.
  
  Nevertheless, it's been (really, really, really) funny.
  
  The final margin will still be interesting. Had the GOP handled this situation even remotely competently, Morrow wouldn't clear 10%. If Morrow gets north of 30%, that's an embarrassment for the GOP, no matter how they try to spin it.

Again, this list isn't comprehensive.

[Note: Texas Scorecard has an analysis of both parties Congressional runoffs here.]

Bottom Line: The macro-narratives are "can the Dems seize an opportunity (for once)" vs. "can the GOP avoid utterly, totally, and completely humiliating themselves (all over again)."  We don't pretend to know the answer.  Stay tuned.

#TXLEGE: Cruz calls state government a "Swamp"

"They have forsaken the right way and gone astray, following the way of Balaam the son of Beor, who loved the wages of unrighteousness;"
2 Peter 2:15

New ad in the Jon Francis race:



This is fascinating on all sortsa levels.

As we discussed the other day, for Cruz to stick with Francis despite the recent caterwauling of the phony outrage crowd speaks volumes.

Keep in mind: Cruz worked in state government for a stretch in the mid-2000's, so he's seen it up close.

Then again, lo those many years ago, Ted Cruz was the guy whose original claim to fame was having beaten a sitting Lite Guv in a statewide race.

Bottom Line: The accuracy of the message is obvious, but for this particular messenger to deliver it has all sorts of implications.

Cruz sticks with Francis

"A man who has friends must himself be friendly,
But there is a friend who sticks closer than a brother."
Proverbs 18:24

Inbox yesterday:

Francis Announces Major GOTV Rally with Sen. Ted Cruz in HD-60 Runoff

(Cisco, TX) On Monday, conservative businessman and candidate for State Representative of House District 60 Jon Francis announced he will hold a major campaign rally featuring special guest, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, encouraging conservatives in House District 60 to get out the vote.

“Ted Cruz is a conservative outsider who knows what it’s like to be an underdog and defeat the establishment favorite,” said Francis. “We’re excited to energize conservatives across House District 60 with this one of a kind special event ahead of this important election.”

Cruz, the conservative firebrand, endorsed Francis for the State Representative position in the primary, but is now heading into the district to stump for Jon personally in the July 14 Republican Primary Runoff Election.

“If anarchists, leftists and marxists can pillage major cities across America in strong numbers, I can pretty much guarantee conservatives will show up for our rally and head to the polls at full strength on Election Day,” said Francis.

The rally is set to be held at the beautiful, new event venue, La Bella Luna in Hood County on Sunday, July 12. The 2:00 PM afternoon gathering will be totally free of charge for a general admission ticket; however, seating is limited and will be filled on a first-come, first-serve basis. The Jon Francis Campaign highly encourages potential attendees to RSVP as soon as possible in order to secure their seat. Tickets are required for entry to the rally.

Francis made headlines in his announcement by pledging to only take contributions from individuals in his campaign and not a dime from lobbyists or PACs.

Francis won the Republican Primary on March 3, finishing just shy of the 50% +1 vote mark needed to avoid a Runoff Election. Due to the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has moved the Republican Primary Runoff Elections to Tuesday, July 14. Early Voting will be held June 29 through July 10. House District 60 includes Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Eastland, Hood, Palo Pinto, Shackelford and Stephens Counties. The 87th Legislative Session is set to gavel on January 12, 2021.

Early Voting begins Monday, June 29 and runs through Friday, July 10. Election Day is Tuesday, July 14.

In other words, Abbott's endorsement of Jon Francis' opponent had no impact on Ted Cruz.  This is interesting for a whole host of reasons (have Cruz and Abbott ever been on opposite sides of a primary before?!?).  But the most interesting aspect is what says about the Empower Texans kerfuffle.

Which is, for the most part, nothing.

Obviously, a cynic would argue that Ted Cruz wants to remain in the good graces of the Wilks family for a future presidential run. Of course, the cynic is completely correct. But that's the point.
Had the Empower Texans kerfuffle had the impact their enemies' had hoped, Ted Cruz wouldn't get anywhere near Jon Francis. Which shows you the long-term impact of the Empower Texans kerfuffle.

In a word: Bupkus.

Nothing's changed.

(Except for the fact that Abbott now needs to run the table.)

Bottom Line: If anything had materially changed in the past ten days, this event wouldn't be happening. But it IS happening. Sorry phony outrage crowd.