Beginning to unpack last Tuesday's screwy results....

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Obviously, Tuesday night was a good night for Team Straus and other establishment Republicans down ballot.  On the other hand, Ted Cruz turned in a surprisingly strong performance at the presidential level, and obviously Cruz supporters weren't voting for Joe Straus lieutenants.  So, what gives?!?

We have a hypothesis, though we can't test it without substantially more detailed data: based on a preliminary examination of county level results cross referenced against individual races, it looks like Donald Trump's presence at the Presidential level was good for down-ballot incumbents.

It seems like Cruz supporters voted for conservatives.  Rubio and Kasich supporters voted for establishment candidates.  Trump supporters, meanwhile, voted with the incumbent regardless of which side of the conservative/establishment fence that particular incumbent came down upon.

For example: In Joe Straus' and Pete Sessions' races, the challenger candidates' vote totals seemed to mirror the countywide result for Ted Cruz in Bexar and Dallas counties.  On the other hand, Jonathan Stickland, Matt Rinaldi, and Tony Tinderholt clearly outperformed Cruz.  This is, admittedly, an imprecise measure, but a correlation does seem to hold across across a fairly wide geographical area.

One thing we know for a fact: with turnout off the charts, and massive numbers of new people voting, name recognition was at a premium.  For a number of reasons, incumbents have vastly higher name recognition most of the time.  So there you have it.

Bottom Line: For whatever reason, Tuesday was a good night to be running as an incumbent in a down-ballot race; it certainly appears that Donald Trump bringing record numbers of low-information voters into the process was a big part of that reason.

Meet the moderate, pro-"Temporary Worker Program," state representative leading Marco Rubio's Texas Campaign....

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Author's Note: We don't want to write this piece.  Unlike many of his colleagues in the Texas House, Representative Gonzales is a good guy with good taste in baseball and football teams.  That being said, when a Presidential campaign makes him their public surrogate, his policy views are fair game.]

On Thursday afternoon, Marco Rubio's presidential campaign rolled out its Texas Leadership Team:

Team Marco Rolls Out Texas Leadership Team

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January 7, 2016

Texas State Representatives James Frank and Larry Gonzales, along with former legislators Linda Harper-Brown and Martha Wong, are leading up efforts for Marco in the Lone Star State.

In addition to leading his Texas Campaign, Larry Gonzales introduced Rubio at an event in Dallas. This was notable.  To understand why, we first need to review the Republican Party of Texas' recent history.

"The Texas Solution" was an immigration related plank added to the 2012 Republican party of Texas platform under shady circumstances; as the author of "The Texas Solution" explained later that summer:

The Texas Immigration Solution reallocates our law enforcement resources to focus on securing our borders and defeating the drug cartels and human traffickers. The Texas Immigration Solution also proposes a 21st-century temporary worker program.

[Author's Note: Emphasis added.]

"The Texas Solution" proved itself to be very controversial among rank and file Republicans and it was subsequently repealed in the 2014 Platform:

FORT WORTH — After several hours of debate Saturday, the final day of the biennial state GOP convention, Republican delegates voted to remove the "Texas Solution" from the party’s official platform, reverting to a more hardline stance on immigration.

About 8,000 delegates gathered to consider the party platform and eventually rejected a proposed immigration plank that included language calling for a provisional visa program for immigrants. In its place, they adopted a plank that echoes the party’s 2010 platform. It does not call for a guest-worker program and instead calls for ending in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants and prohibiting sanctuary cities — municipalities that do not enforce immigration laws.

While the platform is a nonbinding set of principles for the party, it sets forth a powerful political statement of the party’s stance on key voting issues in an important election year.

Now what does this have to do with Larry Gonzales (and, subsequently, Marco Rubio)?!?

During the time in question, Larry Gonzales was one of the most prominent public supporters of "The Texas Solution."  While this author didn't attend the 2012 RPT convention, we very clearly remember Gonzales leading the charge to save it in 2014.  As he explained in this 2013 interview:

Well, as you know, in Texas we’ve passed the Texas Solution. So take Texas, the reddest of the red states, with the 9,000 of the reddest of the red delegates, we actually passed a temporary guest worker program. We recognized a need for that here in Texas. There is a threshold to be met to qualify for the program and the threshold is pretty high. A couple of instances, it says that the employer of the guest worker must pay all their private insurance. The guest worker waives any and all rights for entitlement programs, they must have a course and be proficient in English, they have to take an American civics course, the employer must pay all necessary taxes, withhold taxes. So there’s a really good threshold in order for them to work here, it’s not something easily attained, but it’s out there and this is Texas’ way of saying we’ve come to the table and we’ve talked the issues and it’s important we’ve passed it because in my opinion, the Democrats will never come to us to fix this solution for us. They won’t do it because the unresolved immigration issues are more powerful to them than resolved. They can win more elections, and they can rally more votes, and they can stir more fear and blame toward Republicans if the issues stay unresolved. Resolved, they have little leverage against Republicans. So the significant of passing the Texas Solution is it puts us in the position to say “We’ve started the conservation, please join us,” but I guarantee they won’t because it’s just better for them as a party for those issues to stay unresolved…It gives them a rallying call. It might not of been perfect, there may be things you like or don’t like, but it is an opportunity to say we’ve started the conversation, join us, and let’s see if they do.

And THAT'S the guy Marco Rubio chose to lead his Texas campaign.

Bottom Line: Actions speak louder than words; for Marco Rubio to select one of the most prominent public supporters of "the Texas Solution" to lead his Presidential campaign in the Lone State State speaks VOLUMES about where his sentiments really lie.

SD-24 headed towards a Mayes/Buckingham runoff

"And we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to His purpose."
Romans 8:28

A couple months ago, Erick Erickson made waves when he predicted the Presidential race would come down to Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.  Thursday's Central Texas Republican Assembly meeting made it clear a similar dynamic has emerged in the SD-24 race.  Unless one of them commits a game changing mistake, we anticipate a runoff between Brent Mayes and Dawn Buckingham.

The similarities between Marco Rubio and Dawn Buckingham are uncanny.  Both are young, attractive, articulate candidates who are reasonably conservative most of the time.  Both are light years better than the genuine RINO's they've already boxed out of their respective races.  But both raise red flags.  In Rubio's case, it's amnesty; with Buckingham, it's the Texas Medical Association.

One of the first rules we learned following Texas politics is never to trust the Texas Medical Association.  They support Obamacare.  They're pro-Abortion.  They've spread lies about conservative Texas Senators.  Less than a year ago, while she was working with TMA, Buckingham gave a $500 donation to Joe Straus.  When we asked her about it on Thursday, she she she was doing her job for her trade association.  That's hardly a response that inspires confidence.

We could do worse, but we can also do better.

Brent Mayes speaks his mind.  He is, easily, the strongest candidate on Tenth Amendment issues.  Brent Mayes understands Texas can't look to D.C. for help; Texas has to help itself.  If necessary, Bernt Mayes would resist a Republican President.  With C.J. Grisham out of the race, Brent Mayes is the clear conservative choice.

This race reflects the success of Texas' conservative grassroots over the past three cycles.  The genuine RINO's haven't gained traction.  While we have reservations about one of the viable candidates, that candidate is still someone we could support in a general election.  But an 'A+' candidate beats a 'B' candidate every single time.  And remember, Ted Cruz is going to be at the top of this ticket.

Bottom Line: There are only two viable candidates in this race; check back with us on March 2nd if you believe otherwise.