#TXLEGE: Yikes for Tinderholt

"Is anyone among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the church, and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord."
James 5:14

That's not good:

State Rep. Tony Tinderholt was hospitalized last week after testing positive for the novel coronavirus, the lawmaker confirmed Friday to The Texas Tribune, marking the first known case involving a member of the Texas Legislature.

"I truly thought last Friday was gonna be my last," Tinderholt, an Arlington Republican, said in a text message to the Tribune. Tinderholt said his wife and two of his children also tested positive for the virus, though their symptoms were less severe.

Tinderholt said he is recovering after receiving medical treatment from a North Texas doctor. He and his family wore masks every time they went out in public because they felt it was the right thing to do, he said.

....

While Tinderholt acknowledged the virus is a "serious illness," he reiterated Friday his position that Abbott shutting down parts of the economy is wrong.

"Closing the entire economy and halting business as well as illegally taking people's freedoms are absolutely the wrong things to do to Texas, Texans and our nation," Tinderholt said.

Tinderholt said his recovery was largely thanks to state Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, who referred him to Dr. Brian Procter of McKinney Family Medicine. Procter, Tinderholt said, told him that out of the few hundred patients he has seen so far for the coronavirus, the lawmaker was among "the worst five he had handled." Tinderholt said he was considered at risk for the virus due to his titanium aortic heart valve.

Confession: We were today years old when we learned Tony Tinderholt had a titanium valve in his heart.

Bottom Line: Get well soon Tony.

#TXLEGE: Abbott facing first Sustained Revolt Re: "Contact Tracing" Boondoggle

"David said furthermore, 'As the Lord lives, the Lord shall strike him, or his day shall come to die, or he shall go out to battle and perish.' "
1 Samuel 26:10

Tony Tinderholt:

I would like to make one final point which concerns contract tracing. The MTX contract must end promptly. It is a gross invasion of personal liberty and privacy. I also have serious concerns it violates HIPPA and other medical privacy laws. Why is Texas spending nearly $300 million of taxpayer money on tracking Texans for two years over this? Though it may be federally funded, every dollar spent by local, state, or the federal government either comes from current taxpayers or the children or grandchildren of taxpayers through debt service. Therefore, we could have forgone the federal funds, saved taxpayer dollars, and not conducted privacy-infringing tracing.

[Note: While the scope of this blog post is limited to the so-called "contact tracing" boondoggle, Tinderholt's full letter is brutal.]

Bob Hall:

“Contact tracing is technically wrong, as it may be an effective tool to trace slow moving deadly viruses such as Ebola or Tuberculosis, but not for a fast-moving virus with a low death rate that is primarily spread by asymptomatic people.

“Contact tracing, for COVID-19, is a colossal waste of money which could be better spent on resources to protect the elderly and immune-compromised populations that are the most affected. Contact tracing will shred our constitutional rights to privacy.

“Texas must stop contact tracing and change course by adopting new policies consistent with the facts as we now know them...."

Matt Krause: 

James White:

State Reps @RepMattKrause and @James_E_White have called for termination of @MTX_Inc’s $295m contract for contact tracing. Anyone else out there doing same? My DMs are open https://t.co/K1mzSZto2r

— Jay Root (@byjayroot) June 1, 2020

It's not a full statement, but this retweet from Donna Howard's certainly suggests discomfort with the contract.

All of which is really, really, interesting.

Obviously, we've been around the block several times.  We know that the legislature often talks a big game during the interim, then fails to follow through once they get the chance.  Still, this is not a good place for a Governor to be heading into the most difficult session in awhile.

If Abbott's smart, he'll cancel the contract (and fire Mike Toomey).  Whether or not he is smart remains to be seen.  That being said, it wouldn't surprise us to see that announcement as a Friday afternoon document dump this week or next.

Bottom Line: The long term fallout remains to be seen, but the bloom is certainly off the rose in a way it hasn't been previously.

#TXLEGE: Tinderholt recognizes the obvious as Klick continues to stonewall

"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

Hoo boy:

Bottom Line: Drip, drip, drip....

#TXLEGE: Thoughts on the Abolition Bill hearing

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

Obviously, we stayed late to testify on Monday night.  These are our thought.  No particular order:

• Jeff Leach did a really good job running the hearing.  With such an intense topic, the hearing could have been easily derailed.  It wasn't.
  
  Credit for that goes to the chair.

• We know some people were annoyed at the pace of the hearing.  We respectfully disagree.  On a topic like this, it's better to let everybody speak.  If it takes an extra four hours, so be it.

• Speaking of Jeff Leach: That exchange with the chick from NARAL was quite something.  ICYMI, she attacked Leach over taking an allegedly non-mainstream position.  Leach asked her whether she supported legal abortion at 39 weeks, 6 days, and 23 hours.  When she said yes, Leach correctly refused to be lectured about mainstream positions on abortion.

• The post-abortive women who testified as to how this sort of law would have impacted their thinking were easily the most compelling of the night; they should be the face of the movement moving forward.

• Tom Glass is right: The real solution on any number of issues, including abortion, is for the states to become much more assertive with the federal government.  Baby steps.

• Speaking of Baby Steps: We referenced the Capitol euphemisms "beginning the conversation" and "multi-session process."  Monday's hearing was the former.  It begins the latter.  You've gotta start somewhere.

• Speakiung of Starting Somewhere: Tony Tinderholt and Jeff Leach deserve tremendous credit for getting this ball rolling.

To be clear: This author's concerns about the unintended consequences of this approach remain, but those concerns weren't relevant Monday night....

Bottom Line: Monday night undeniably moved the cultural conversation forward....

#TXLEGE: Tinderholt to monitor Straus' Loathsome little "Economic Competitiveness" dog and pony show....

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Good for him:

Tinderholt letter to Cook by Cahnman on Scribd

#TXLEGE: If we're ever gonna get rid of Joe Straus....

"Behold, all those who were incensed against you
Shall be ashamed and disgraced;
They shall be as nothing,
And those who strive with you shall perish."
Isaiah 41:11

...then yesterday's Nay vote on Byron Cook's amendment to restore the rainy day fund raid give you a hint at the type of coalition it might take:

So that's 67.

Also, FWIW, Jeff Leach, Tony Tinderholt, and Scott Sanford weren't on the floor but could have been reasonably expected to vote no.

So that's 70.

Furthermore, Lance Gooden later made a journal statement against the amendment.

So that's 71.

Obviously, you need 76, but that 71 is potentially a start.

Also, FWIW, based on the 2017 Mark Jones index, Trent Ashby is Republican #76:

#TXLEGE: Freedom Caucus DOMINATES Early House Fundraising!!!

"Wealth gained by dishonesty will be diminished,
But he who gathers by labor will increase."
Proverbs 13:11

We obviously know about the Governor and Lt. Governor's fundraising, but did you know that 7 out of the top ten fundraisers on the House side are Freedom caucus members?!?

Your 10 largest Republican fundraisers in the #TXHouse for the July reports. @BriscoeCain is #2, under @SpeakerStraus. #txlege pic.twitter.com/lywWqdB44y

— Luke Macias (@effectualchange) July 18, 2017

While we're on the subject, among challengers Thomas McNutt (running against Byron Cook) raised over $320k and has $250k cash on hand; Mayes Middleton (running against Wayne Faircloth) has $480k cash on hand and has over 100 individual donors including former good UT regent Alex Cranberg!

Bottom Line: This tells you everything you need to know about where the energy and momentum lie.

#TXLEGE: Four Hour local and consent sets tone for final House push....

"While they promise them liberty, they themselves are slaves of corruption; for by whom a person is overcome, by him also he is brought into bondage."
2 Peter 2:19

After we left the UT board meeting, we went to watch the House local and consent calendar.  What a mess.  After four hours of crossfire stalling and a shady attempt by leadership to change rules, over 20 bills had been killed.

While Jonathan Stickland was a ringleader, he wasn't the only participant.  Briscoe Cain, Matt Rinaldi, Tony Tinderholt, Valoree Swanson, and others also did their thing.  On the Democrat side, both Rafael Anchia and Ramon Romero saw significant action.

Some highlights:

• Stickland and Cain knocked off a Sarah Davis bill to fund a "maternal mortality" study under Medicaid that might have been used to justify abortions.

• Travis Clardy had (at least) three bills knocked off the calendar and at times was trying to distract Stickland while he was speaking.

• Larry Phillips almost sucker punched a member of the Freedom caucus and had to be physically restrained by another member of House leadership.

• Several attempts to create new taxes were considered.

• Likewise several special purpose districts with eminient domain authority.

Following the calendar, Senfronia Thompson attempted to change the rules so that the bills which had been knocked off could be considered on the regular calendar; she backed down when Matt Rinaldi attempted to amend her motion to consider several bills that leadership is actively killing.

Bottom Line: Tempers are short (and we still have two more days to go)....

#TXLEGE: Stickland, Tinderholt, knock 5 bills off Local and Consent!!!

"While they promise them liberty, they themselves are slaves of corruption; for by whom a person is overcome, by him also he is brought into bondage."
2 Peter 2:19

In the Texas House, the "Local and Consent" calendar is a mechanism that is supposed to be used to efficiently pass non-controversial bills.  When used properly, it's a good idea.  But, under Team Straus, it is often abused to sneak through special interest bills.

The good news is that any member can knock a bill of the L&C calendar simply by talking about it for ten minutes; Jonathan Stickland has made an art form of this.

The House heard the first local and consent calendar today and, between Stickland and Tony Tinderholt, they knocked off the following five bills:

• HB 92               Guillen
  Relating to the entitlement of spouses of certain veterans with disabilities to a veteran's employment preference.
  
  Tinderholt knocked this off because the term "disabled veteran" was so poorly defined that his own wife would have qualified for the program; Tinderholt wants this bill to come back on the regular calendar so he can offer an amendment tightening the language.

• HB 1264             Burkett / Button
  Relating to the concurrent jurisdiction of certain municipal courts in certain criminal cases punishable by fine only.
  
  Stickland knocked this bill of because it would create new mechanism for municipal police departments to perform traffic stops outside the area of their municipal jurisdiction; it doesn't take a genius to see how this practice could go horribly wrong.

• HB 1355             Wray
  Relating to the enforcement of commercial motor vehicle safety standards in certain municipalities.
  
  Stickland knocked this off because it created a special authority for one city to collect revenues "for the state."  Unfortunately, 90% of the cities that already have this authority don't remit those revenues to the state.  Larry Phillips has a bill to address the underlying issue statewide that Stickland supports.

• HB 1570             Burns
  Relating to the enforcement of commercial motor vehicle safety standards in certain municipalities.
  
  Withdrawn by author after Stickland explained it was similar to the Wray bill listed above but for a different city.

• HB 2413             Burkett
  Relating to certain identifying information regarding career school or college students.
  
  Stickland knocked this off because it was potentially a sneaky attempt to forestall future Wallace Hall-style investigations under new "privacy" protections; Stickland scores extra points for the fact that Dan Flynn was visibly having a fit on the House floor.

Zerwas refuses to condemn subsidizing heroin addiction (while telling other bald faced lies)....

"The lips of the righteous feed many,
But fools die for lack of wisdom.
Proverbs 10:21

We attended appropriations chairman John Zerwas' trib event this morning.  It was the finest form in which we'd seen a Straus lieutenant in some time.  Our question about medicaid (to which the headline refers) is the final question in the video:



Highlights:

• Something, something "new sources of revenue."

• Calls Senate budget "austere."
• Note: LOLOLOL....

• "Reasonable" medicaid growth.

• "I don't think anyone wants to go back" to 2011 education budget 'cuts.'
• Personally, we'd like to eliminate socialized education in it's entirety; failing that, we'd love to cut it a LOT further than they went in '11.

• Wants appropriations committee budget vote to be unanimous.

• School finance requires: "undistracted period of time."
• Tacit endorsement of special session.
• Backtracks when he realizes he just endorsed a special session and calls for yet another 'study' during the interim.

• Endorses continued funding of state level border operations.

• Offers qualified praise of Obamacare.
• Repeal must be "very carefully thought out."
• Something, something people who obtained insurance under Obamacare need to be taken care of.

• Tax relief: "Going to be a challenge."
• "We need to fund our schools adequately...meet our responsibilities in Health Care" before tax relief.

• Rainy day fund: "We have to have a conversation" on a raid.

• Supplemental: "Will be out in the near future."
• Calls it a "one time expense" re: RDF.
• On what planet is medicaid not an ongoing expense?!?

• Parental Educational Choice: "I have to support my public school system."
• No "at this time."

• Throws privacy act under the bus.

Q&A:

• No public conference committee on budget.
• "We have to get the work done."

• Our question: Tells bald faced lie about Medicaid expansion.
• Calls his 2013 approach "innovative."
• Ignores the fact that he fully endorsed it in 2015.
• Non-committal on Tinderholt bill.

Tinderholt proposes reigning in program recently seen Subsidizing Heroin Addiction

“A wicked messenger falls into trouble,
But a faithful ambassador brings health.”
Proverbs 13:17

There's been a longer piece about the personal tragedies being wrought by the decrepit national economy making the rounds on social media the past few days; it contains this gem about the Medicaid program in Ohio:

But how did so many millions of un-working men, whose incomes are limited, manage en masse to afford a constant supply of pain medication? Oxycontin is not cheap. As Dreamland carefully explains, one main mechanism today has been the welfare state: more specifically, Medicaid, Uncle Sam’s means-tested health-benefits program. Here is how it works (we are with Quinones in Portsmouth, Ohio):

[The Medicaid card] pays for medicine—whatever pills a doctor deems that the insured patient needs. Among those who receive Medicaid cards are people on state welfare or on a federal disability program known as SSI. . . . If you could get a prescription from a willing doctor—and Portsmouth had plenty of them—Medicaid health-insurance cards paid for that prescription every month. For a three-dollar Medicaid co-pay, therefore, addicts got pills priced at thousands of dollars, with the difference paid for by U.S. and state taxpayers. A user could turn around and sell those pills, obtained for that three-dollar co-pay, for as much as ten thousand dollars on the street.

In 21st-century America, “dependence on government” has thus come to take on an entirely new meaning.

You may now wish to ask: What share of prime-working-age men these days are enrolled in Medicaid? According to the Census Bureau’s SIPP survey (Survey of Income and Program Participation), as of 2013, over one-fifth (21 percent) of all civilian men between 25 and 55 years of age were Medicaid beneficiaries. For prime-age people not in the labor force, the share was over half (53 percent). And for un-working Anglos (non-Hispanic white men not in the labor force) of prime working age, the share enrolled in Medicaid was 48 percent.

By the way: Of the entire un-working prime-age male Anglo population in 2013, nearly three-fifths (57 percent) were reportedly collecting disability benefits from one or more government disability program in 2013. Disability checks and means-tested benefits cannot support a lavish lifestyle. But they can offer a permanent alternative to paid employment, and for growing numbers of American men, they do. The rise of these programs has coincided with the death of work for larger and larger numbers of American men not yet of retirement age. We cannot say that these programs caused the death of work for millions upon millions of younger men: What is incontrovertible, however, is that they have financed it—just as Medicaid inadvertently helped finance America’s immense and increasing appetite for opioids in our new century.

Which makes the recently filed HB 1871 by Tony Tinderholt all the more important:

Representative Tinderholt Files HB 1871 to Audit Medicaid

In an effort to protect the integrity of Medicaid and ensure taxpayer dollars are not being wasted, State Representative Tony Tinderholt has filed HB 1871 to audit the state Medicaid program.  

Most Texans agree the elimination of abuse and fraud from government programs is important. HB 1871 requires Medicaid recipients recertify their eligibility when current benefits expire. It also begins a quarterly audit of the program. Qualified individuals would be notified to ensure they continue receiving uninterrupted care during the recertification and audit processes. 

Tinderholt commented on his bill saying, "To make sure resources are available to fund programs like Medicaid, we must stamp out waste in the system. It is our duty as legislators to monitor agency spending and ensure taxpayer dollars are being used in an efficient manner." 

While exact estimates vary, experts conclude Medicaid waste numbers in the tens of billions of dollars annually in the United States. While funding comes from a number of sources, including state and federal agencies, individual states exhibit the greatest control of finding fraud in the program.    

Tinderholt said, "If people are receiving benefits to which they are not entitled, we have to get that under control. We want to be sure the funds are there for those that need them most." 

As a combat veteran, Tony has spent much of his life fighting to protect the life and liberty of others. This bill continues that fight. Tony Tinderholt represents District 94 where he lives with his wife Bethany in Arlington. Tony is a proud father, combat veteran, and conservative Republican. He was ranked the 3rd most conservative legislator of the 150 Texas Representatives.

While we're on the subject, learn more about Texas specific examples of Medicaid abusing the vulnerable here.

Bottom Line: Medicaid has always been a fiscal trainwreck, but when socialized medicine subsidizes the drug abuse we owe it to our vulnerable citizens to curtail this abusive program.  In other words, we owe it to both ourselves and the recipients.  That's win/win.

#TXLEGE House Announces formation of Freedom Caucus!!!

"As iron sharpens iron,
So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend."
Proverbs 27:17

This can't hurt:

FREEDOM CAUCUS FORMED IN THE TEXAS HOUSE TO EMPOWER GRASSROOTS TEXANS

The Texas Freedom Caucus was launched today in the Texas House of Representatives. The Texas Freedom Caucus’ mission is to amplify the voice of liberty-minded grassroots Texans who want bold action to protect life, strengthen families, defend the bill of rights, restrain government and revitalize personal and economic freedoms in Texas.

The Texas Freedom Caucus (TFC) will be focused on first principles that are the hallmark of liberty-minded Texans. The policies supported by the TFC will be developed thru collaboration with grassroots leaders to identify priorities that are often dismissed in Austin.

“Go five blocks in any direction from the Texas Capitol, and you will see what interests are hard wired into the Austin establishment,” Caucus Chairman Rep. Matt Schaefer (Tyler) said. “The mission of the Texas Freedom Caucus will be to hard wire liberty-minded grassroots into policy making in Austin.”

The TFC will engage grassroots Texans on matters before session, during session, and long after session when policies are implemented at the agency level. The caucus is committed to restoring first principles – the right to life, liberty and property that are at the core of the freedom of America and the exceptionalism of Texas. The caucus will outline a set of legislative priorities after it holds a series of discussions with grassroots representatives from all across Texas. Thereafter, the TFC will support or oppose legislation in accordance with those principles.

“We don’t want our priorities to be determined from Austin down, but from the grassroots up. That includes taking things like the Texas Republican Party platform seriously,” said Schaefer. “There are thousands of people too busy working and raising their families to embed themselves in the legislative process. Their voices matter too, and we want to make sure they are heard, and their efforts are multiplied.”

The Texas Freedom Caucus will share many policy goals with other existing conservative organizations and caucuses, and it will buttress and complement rather than compete with those groups. The TFC will distinguish itself by providing a specific focal point for grassroots Texans interested in conservative policy-making in Austin.

The Vice Chair of the Caucus will be Rep. Bill Zedler (Arlington). The Policy Director will be Rep. Jeff Leach (Plano), the caucus Grassroots Liaison will be Rep. Matt Shaheen (Plano) and the Secretary-Treasurer will be Rep. Tony Tinderholt (Arlington). Other members include representatives Kyle Biedermann (New Braunfels), Briscoe Cain (Houston), Matt Krause (Fort Worth), Mike Lang (Granbury), Rep. Matt Rinaldi (Irving), Jonathan Stickland (Bedford) and Valoree Swanson (Spring).

James Bernsen will serve as Executive Director for the Texas Freedom Caucus.

Learn more about the group here.

CONSTITUIONAL CARRY and #TXLEGE: State of Play

"Every one of the builders had his sword girded at his side as he built. And the one who sounded the trumpet was beside me."
Nehemiah 4:18

Jonathan Stickland, Lone Star Gun Rights, and Texas Firearms Celebrity Michael Cargill held a press conference yesterday afternoon to discuss where things stand related to constitutional carry; they were also joined by State Reps Tony Tinderholt, Kyle Biedermann,and Mike Lang:



Highlights:

• Michael Cargill:
• Texas should modernize its 1871 era gun laws.

• Jonathan Stickland:
• New support this session that didn't exist two years ago.
• Wrong to make people pay to excise rights.
• Members have been hearing from constituents.
• New Democrat support; D's may not agree with #2A, but do agree that protectionist licensing harms our most vulnerable citizens.

• Tony Tinderholt:
• Part of the RPT platform.

• Justin Delosh:
• Texas is middle of the pack, at best, on guns.
• 11 states already have constitutional carry.
• Last people said the votes didn't exist for licensed open carry but it ultimately ended up passing; there's still plenty of time for the same thing to happen this session re: Constitutional carry.
• #1 RPT platform plank.

• Q&A:
• House leadership will be overwhelmed with public support.
• This doesn't effect the process by which guns are sold one iota.
• Tom Mechler put out an e-mail saying he supports it.
• CHL is de facto gun owner registration.
• Threatening letters only re-enforce need for #2A.
• Grassroots agitation has reached the point where the political self-preservation instinct of members is kicking in.
• There's a disconnect between the courageous men and women of law enforcement who serve our communities and the "law enforcement" industrial complex at the Capitol.

Team Straus' Smear Campaign against Kyle Biedermann

"Lying lips are an abomination to the Lord,
But those who deal truthfully are His delight."
Proverbs 12:22

Team Straus might be incorrigibly wicked, but their playbook is very predictable.  When you're losing, accuse the other guy of being a pervert.  They did it to Stickland.  They did it to Rinaldi.  They did it to Tinderholt.

Now, they're doing it to Kyle Biedermann.

Kyle Biedermann is in a runoff against Straus lieutenant Doug Miller in HD-73 (Comal, Gillespie, Kendall counties).  Apparently, fifteen years ago, Kyle was involved in a very contentious divorce where the custody battle turned bitter.  Miller is now taking something said during that divorce and trying to spin it into an accusation that Kyle molested his daughters.

The New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung, who typically isn't friendly to conservatives, has looked into the accusations and found them lacking:

While the contest between incumbent Doug Miller and Kyle Biedermann has been a contentious one for its entire run, it plunged to a new low this week after the Miller campaign sent out a mailer plumbing the depths of Biedermann’s 15-year-old divorce, selectively cherry picking nuggets to paint him as unworthy of a seat in the Texas House of Representatives.

It’s a repugnant piece of work — one entirely devoid of context that hinges on people reading between the lines to draw the conclusion that Biedermann is a danger to his own children, and by extension, unfit to hold public office.

Not included was the fact that Court Appointed Special Advocates who investigated found that both Kyle and his ex-wife were capable of being primary custodian, and should be granted “extensive visitation rights.” Something CASA wouldn’t have done if there was a danger. Also omitted was the resolution of the case which allowed that visitation, and later joint custody — something the state wouldn’t have approved if there was a danger.

This was just another unfortunately contentious divorce case between two adults who no longer loved one another, but who desperately loved their children.

There were mistakes and false allegations as both sides jockeyed for the best position, but ultimately it ended as these things should — with both parents agreeing to get along in the interest of the children.

Kyle's ex-wife released the following statement:

“Doug Miller should be ashamed. Miller and his campaign have been calling, emailing and mailing thousands of voters and telling them horrible lies about my ex-husband. I said things to hurt Kyle but never knew they would get out to the public. The court gave my ex-husband joint custody of our children because he is a great father. For the sake of our daughters, Kyle put aside our past and maintained a positive relationship with me. It sickens me that Doug Miller would go this far to get re-elected,” said Kyle Biedermann’s Ex-Wife, Avian Biedermann.

In addition, all four Biedermann daughters have stood up to the Miller Smear Campaign that is now desperately attempting to sully their dad’s reputation and hurt them all personally and professionally, during the final throws of a campaign.

From Kyle's children:

“Kyle Biedermann is my dad. He is a loving and caring father. Representative Miller should be ashamed. This is why good people are reluctant to run for office, it takes someone strong like my Daddy to stand up for what is right and run for office. Digging up garbage from my parents’ divorce 15 yrs ago is disgusting and hurtful and false.” -Loren Biedermann

“Doug Miller owes my family an apology. My sisters and I never knew about these accusations. I am the oldest and was 10 yrs old at the time and they are not true. Now the whole world will hear the lies. It shows his true character. I am taking leave to be with my dad when he wins this election.” – Petty Officer 2nd Class, Kyla Biedermann

“I can’t believe that Doug Miller is so desperate to win this election against my dad that he would make accusations he knows were disproven in a court of law. My sisters and I chose to live with my dad after the divorce because he is a loving and caring man. We never knew that these things were ever said about him. I am disappointed that my mother said these things and I am praying for healing for my family. ” -Petty Officer 2nd Class, Emily Biedermann

“My Dad is an honorable man. The same can’t be said for Doug Miller. These desperate attempts by Miller’s campaign are pathetic.” – Dana True Biedermann

Bottom Line: Whenever Straus lieutenants start accusing opponents of being child molesters it means their internal polling sucks.

Beginning to unpack last Tuesday's screwy results....

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Obviously, Tuesday night was a good night for Team Straus and other establishment Republicans down ballot.  On the other hand, Ted Cruz turned in a surprisingly strong performance at the presidential level, and obviously Cruz supporters weren't voting for Joe Straus lieutenants.  So, what gives?!?

We have a hypothesis, though we can't test it without substantially more detailed data: based on a preliminary examination of county level results cross referenced against individual races, it looks like Donald Trump's presence at the Presidential level was good for down-ballot incumbents.

It seems like Cruz supporters voted for conservatives.  Rubio and Kasich supporters voted for establishment candidates.  Trump supporters, meanwhile, voted with the incumbent regardless of which side of the conservative/establishment fence that particular incumbent came down upon.

For example: In Joe Straus' and Pete Sessions' races, the challenger candidates' vote totals seemed to mirror the countywide result for Ted Cruz in Bexar and Dallas counties.  On the other hand, Jonathan Stickland, Matt Rinaldi, and Tony Tinderholt clearly outperformed Cruz.  This is, admittedly, an imprecise measure, but a correlation does seem to hold across across a fairly wide geographical area.

One thing we know for a fact: with turnout off the charts, and massive numbers of new people voting, name recognition was at a premium.  For a number of reasons, incumbents have vastly higher name recognition most of the time.  So there you have it.

Bottom Line: For whatever reason, Tuesday was a good night to be running as an incumbent in a down-ballot race; it certainly appears that Donald Trump bringing record numbers of low-information voters into the process was a big part of that reason.

Tinderholt's Opponent LYING About Endorsements

One of them, a prophet of their own, said, “Cretans are always liars, evil beasts, lazy gluttons.”
Titus 1:12

Say what?!?

Heads up, Arlington. Obviously I am supporting Tony Tinderholt for State Rep, seeing as how he's ranked the #3 most...
Posted by Julie White McCarty on Thursday, February 11, 2016

And there's more:

Andrew Piel... Why are you still showing school board President Jamie Sullins and school board member John Hibbs as...
Posted by Kelly Canon on Thursday, February 11, 2016

Sheesh....

Lame anti-Tinderholt hatchet job Falls FLAT!!!

"But as for you, you meant evil against me; but God meant it for good, in order to bring it about as it is this day, to save many people alive."
Genesis 50:20

[Update: Jason Vaughn has A LOT more here.]

Ouch:

So, last night Andrew Piel ran an attack ad over a soundbite analysis of one of Tony Tinderholt's votes. I took the 4...
Posted by Jeremy Blosser on Friday, January 1, 2016

Bottom Line: When the Austin-insider crowd knows they're about to lose an election, they engage in childish name calling. Usually, this happens about a month before election day. That it's happening two months out this cycle is instructive....

Our First Round of 2016 Candidate Endorsements

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

It's that time in the political cycle.  With the Texas Republican primary only three and a half months out, we must separate wheat from chaff.  Therefore, Cahnman's Musings endorses the following candidates:

PRESIDENT

Ted Cruz (Previously Donated):

Among the candidates running, Ted Cruz defines the problems facing the United States best; because Ted properly defines the problem, he's able to properly discuss solutions.

Early in this campaign, Ted coined the phrase "Washington Cartel" to describe the entrenched culture he is running to break up and replace.  It's a devastatingly accurate phrase.  On issue after issue, corrupt career politicians in both parties have colluded with lobbyists and the media to pass the lobby agenda while stiffing voters.  Nothing is going to change in D.C. until you blow up the corrupt insider culture.  America's problems pre-date the current President and will, unless radical change occurs, continue long after he leaves.  Ted Cruz would be that radical change.  While other candidates have taken on bad ideas in the other party, no one in this race has taken on his own party like Ted Cruz.

It's uncanny how closely, after 4 years of observation, Ted's views on DIFFICULT public policy issues continue to mirror our own.  On issues like the border and national security, Ted strikes a middle ground between hawks and libertarians that draws on the best ideas of both but avoids their respective excesses.  Ted Cruz is the only candidate with a plausible path to the White House who understands our DESPERATE need to reign in the Federal Reserve.  Ted Cruz made the grotesque Export-Import "bank" a household name.  When it comes to judicial nominations (and saving babies), Ted Cruz has stated that he's NOT afraid of a confirmation fight.


UNITED STATES HOUSE

Matt McCall, CD-21:

In the Congressional district where we reside, Matt McCall is running for the second time against a 30 year incumbent who has failed to deliver.

We've been disgusted with our 30 year incumbent congressman since he voted for the TARP bailout in 2008.  Three years later, this 30 year incumbent attempted to pass a hideous invasion of internet privacy called SOPA.  Over 30 years, the incumbent has run up a record we described in 2012 as: "Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad."

Despite having lived in his district for most of the past seven years, we'd never met the incumbent Congressman until earlier this year.  Strangely enough, Matt McCall's underfunded 2014 campaign managed to capture 34% of the vote.  Since then, the incumbent has voted modestly better, but a couple months of better votes cannot repair years of violated trust.  Matt McCall would be a fresh start.  Between a 30 year incumbent and a fresh start, the choice is obvious.

TEXAS SENATE

David Simpson, SD-1:

The best symbol for this race is the back microphone in the chamber of the Texas House of Representatives.

There is more than one good candidate in this race.  Between those good candidates, David Simpson is the one who was most frequently a public thorn in the side of House leadership.  There's a reason why Jonathan Stickland and Konni Burton support David Simpson.

On the policy front, David Simpson is the only candidate in this race to vote against Governor Abbott's godless act of socialism "pre-K" scheme.  The clearest way to send a message to Governor Abbott over "pre-K" would be to send David Simpson to the Texas Senate.  Finally, it's not a secret this website supports marijuana legalization.

TEXAS HOUSE (Running for Re-Election)

Jonathan Stickland, HD-92 (Previously Donated):


You know someone terrifies leadership when they resort to intimidation and lawlessness to stop him; Team Straus has done this to Jonathan Stickland more times than we can count.

Jonathan Stickland has a habit his colleagues despise: he reads bills.  Because Jonathan Stickland reads bills, Jonathan Stickland comes prepared to ask his colleagues difficult questions on the Texas House floor.  They HATE that.  Last session, at personal peril and legal expense, Jonathan Stickland (with an assist from Dan Patrick) killed a bill that would have granted law enforcement authority to rent-a-cops from the Federal Reserve.  For that alone, Jonathan Stickland deserves re-election.

Jonathan Stickland is the conscience of the Texas House of Representatives.  Jonathan Stickland keeps the Texas House of Representatives honest.  Jonathan Stickland has carried legislation to promote conservative priorities like Constitutional Carry and repealing tuition subsidies for illegal aliens.  Jonathan Stickland is a conservative champion.  Let's send Jonathan Stickland back for another two years!!!

Matt Rinaldi, HD-115:

This one was the most difficult decision.  That's not because of anything Matt Rinaldi did; Matt Rinaldi's awesome.  We just have such a low opinion of Matt Rinaldi's opponent that we're not sure he needs our help.

Before he was sworn in, Matt Rinaldi set the tone for the session when he publicly disemboweled the Joe Biden of Texas Republicans in a debate over the speaker's race.  During the session, Matt Rinaldi used social skills to play good cop to Stickland's bad cop.  By the end of the session, Matt Rinaldi had edged out Stickland as the most conservative representative.

One note about Matt Rinaldi's opponent: A former state representative, Matt Rinaldi's opponent is the latest entitled, narcissistic, progeny of a Texas political dynasty to attempt to buy public office.  Think of the Bush family minus the ethics and manners.  While there are plenty of positive reasons to vote for Matt Rinaldi, striking a blow against political dynasties is another good one.

Tony Tinderholt, HD-94:

The #3 conservative last session, Tony Tinderholt is the latest sensation to emerge from Tarrant County.

Early in the session, Tony Tinderholt filed a complaint against a lawless Travis County judge who attempted to use a probate case to re-write Texas' marriage laws.  In so doing, Tony Tinderholt gave Jon Stewart a fit.  If Tony Tinderholt can give Jon Stewart a fit, he's alright in our book.

Tony Tinderholt took out a Straus lieutenant in 2014.  Now, Team Straus is looking for revenge. Re-electing Tony Tinderholt would preserve a seat that had been in RINO hands until very recently.

TEXAS HOUSE (Challenger Candidates)

Jeff Judson, HD-121:

Jeff Judson is the strongest challenger Joe Straus has ever seen; that alone is sufficient reason to support Jeff Judson.

Jeff Judson is the former President of the Texas Public Policy Foundation.  Jeff Judson has run successfully for local office in the district.  Jeff Judson has defeated left-wing transportation proposals locally and is well versed in transportation policy.

Jeff Judson is also an outspoken school choice supporter.  Education is the most liberal policy realm in the Texas House, and Joe Straus has pledged to maintain the status quo if he returns.  Joe Straus is an obstacle to structural governmental reforms, and Jeff Judson is the strongest candidate to remove that obstacle.

Thomas McNutt, HD-8:

Thomas McNutt is running against Byron Cook; that alone is reason to support Thomas McNutt.

Thomas McNutt is a fourth-generation steward of one of the most successful family-owned businesses in Texas' History.  Thomas McNutt supports economic liberty and, unlike the incumbent, opposes illegal immigration.  Thomas McNutt will NOT kill 8 pro-life bills in committee out of spite.

Thomas McNutt has been endorsed by Empower Texans, Texas Right to Life, and Texas Values.  Corsicana is a conservative stronghold and its residents deserve better than a lawless state rep who supports corrupt, liberal, "leadership."  Thomas McNutt is the conservative consensus choice to replace a prominent member of the corrupt cartel that runs the Texas House.

Bo French, HD-99:

Bo French is running against Charlie Geren; that alone is reason to support Bo French.

Just this morning, Bo French was endorsed by Empower Texans.  As they write: “Bo French is a bold champion for values and principles that Texans hold dear,” said TFR’s president, Michael Quinn Sullivan. “Bo French’s smart, no-nonsense approach to good public policy is precisely what taxpayers are demanding. Just as importantly, French will fight the cronyism and corruption that has infested so many levels of government.”

Tarrant County is the leading edge of Texas' grassroots renaissance.  Up to this point, HD-99 has resisted these countywide, statewide, and national trends.  On March 1st, voters in Northwestern Tarrant County will have the opportunity to send Bo French to Austin to represent their conservative values.

Jay Wiley, HD-47:

We've known Jay Wiley since he ran for Austin City Council in 2014.  After he (barely) came up short in that race, we had hoped Jay Wiley would run for HD-47.  Thankfully, he did.

Jay Wiley is the choice for Travis County taxpayers based on local issues alone.  Unlike the silent incumbent, Jay Wiley was a vocal opponent of the recent courthouse bond.  The husband of an ob-gyn, Jay Wiley has committed himself to reducing your property taxes by eliminating the odious entity known as Central Health.

While it's in Travis County, HD-47 is one of the safest Republican districts in Texas.  There's NO reason for Travis County conservatives to pull punches.  Whether your motivating issue is property taxes, defending babies, property taxes, illegal immigration, property taxes, anything else, or property taxes, Jay Wiley is the clear conservative choice in HD-47.

Elon Musk didn't have a bad 84th #TXLEGE after all....

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

While the Tesla bill went down in a public train-wreck, Elon Musk had better luck on a bill related to SpaceX (see the top of page 2):

HB01717-84th#TXLEGE

The bill passed both chambers nearly unanimously; only Konni Burton, Jonathan Stickland, and Tony Tinderholt voted no.

Bottom Line: It's very revealing that, while they very publicly killed a bill that would have allowed Tesla to compete on a moderately more level playing field, the 84th #TXLEGE had no problem creating new subsidies for SpaceX.

Jim Keffer Retires: The Open Seat Conundrum

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

[Author's note: The list of House Seniority can be found here, the speaker's vote roll call can be found here.]

Jim Keffer retired this morning.  We're happy to see him go.  Keffer's departure, however, does highlight a conundrum.

Grassroots conservatives tend to do better running against incumbents than in open seats.

While it isn't a perfect correlation, among freshmen Republicans this session, those who defeated incumbents mostly supported Scott Turner; those who won open seat races OVERWHELMINGLY supported Joe Straus.

For example: Matt Rinaldi and Tony Tinderholt both defeated incumbents and voted for Turner; Mike Schofield and John Wray won open seats vacated by Straus lieutenants and voted for Straus.

It's hard to run against a lobby candidate who claims to be conservative and doesn't (yet) have a record that proves otherwise.

That being said, we also don't think the level of churn the leadership team has seen the past couple cycles is sustainable.

Bottom Line: Grassroots conservatives have to do a MUCH better job defining lobby candidates running for open seats.