Media Misses Point On GOP Congressional Retirements

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Representative sample of recent Congressional race reporting:

Rep. Kenny Marchant on Monday became the latest Texas Republican to announce he will not run for reelection, leaving a suburban district between Dallas and Fort Worth up for grabs. He is the fourth Republican in the state to bow out of the 2020 election; three of them represent very competitive districts.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Marchant’s district as a “toss-up,” opening up a major opportunity for Democrats. Last week, Rep. Will Hurd, the House’s only black Republican, who represents a border district in Texas, also said he would be stepping down. Hurd was seen as the only Republican who could hold on to his border district, which runs from El Paso to San Antonio — a district that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Rep. Pete Olson, who represents a quickly diversifying Houston suburban district, is also not running for reelection.

House Democrats are reveling in a “Texodus” as they increasingly see an offensive strategy to grow their House majority running through the Lone Star State.

Kinda, sorta...a little...but not really.

The truth is that (with the possible exception of the Hurd district) the GOP is clearing dead weight.  Lukewarm incumbents with indefensible records are TERRIBLE general election candidates.  The GOP is in a stronger position today than it was three weeks ago.

Back in March, we wrote a piece outlining the math.  You really should read the whole thing.  But the TL,DR version is that, in 2018, the GOP held every single open seat while two incumbents lost.

Also, for the record: One of those incumbents who lost was a guy about whom we'd been warning for years.

In a challenging national environment, the last thing you need is additional baggage from an incumbent's indefensible record.

Bottom Line: During a storm, clearing excess weight doesn't guarantee avoiding shipwreck, but it dramatically increases the odds.

Attacking Hurd over meaningless vote is dumb

"Folly is joy to him who is destitute of discernment,
But a man of understanding walks uprightly."
Proverbs 15:21

This piece left us scratching our head:

A day into the new Nancy Pelosi-run U.S. House of Representatives, and Will Hurd has ditched the GOP.

The San Antonio congressman was one of seven Republicans on Friday to vote for the Democrats’ attempt to fund government without providing the border security money President Donald Trump has said is contingent on his signing the bill.

Asked about his vote, Hurd told Texas Public Radio he doesn’t want to be “playing politics with a shutdown.”

....

Indeed, his vote was the epitome of “playing politics”: by voting to advance legislation that Trump and other Republicans had already said they would not support, Hurd effectively chose to rebuke his own party on a bill doomed to die.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

 And?!?

As the last sentence notes, the bill was already "doomed to die."   It had zero-impact on public policy.  This is exactly when you want someone to take a vote 'against their party.'  If that's "playing politics," so be it.

It's not a secret that Will Hurd represents a swing district.  It's also not a secret that Will Hurd just got re-elected in an awful national environment.  While southwest Texas has trended Republican in recent cycles, it still requires finesse.  Elected officials in such areas ought to be allowed latitude for such finesse.

Especially when the vote in question has zero impact on public policy.

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Then there's the whole Pete Flores factor.

Like it or not, Pete Flores and Will Hurd sink or swim together.  You don't get one without the other.  If you want Pete Flores to have any chance at re-election, you have to cut Will Hurd some slack.

And we want to re-elect Pete Flores.

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Without belaboring it...folks might want to consider WHY an elected official who represents this geographic location might take this particular position on this particular issue.

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Bottom Line:  If an elected official has to take a certain number of votes for political positioning, you want them to do it at times when there's no impact on public policy.

Southwest Texas' ASTONISHING shift to the Right

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

One week ago:

History was made today in the Texas Senate chamber as Pete Flores, a retired game warden from South Texas, was sworn in as the state’s first Hispanic Republican State Senator.

Flores won the seat in a special election last month in a surprise victory that surprised political onlookers statewide. Many had written off Flores’ hopes of winning the seat. However, Flores ran an aggressive campaign matched by a surge of grassroots energy in the district. Add to that the support of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Texans for Fiscal Responsibility and Flores ultimately carried the day.

Previously occupied by Democrat State Sen. Carlos Uresti—who was forced to resign from office after being convicted of several federal crimes and sentenced to prison—Senate District 19 had not been held by a Republican since Reconstruction.

Yesterday:

These are both astonishing.

The Texas Observer notices:

The 23rd Congressional District is Texas’ one true swing district. It forms a claw that holds on to the heart of San Antonio and then stretches west all along the border to El Paso County. It’s a gigantic district, encompassing two time zones as well as about two-thirds of the Texas-Mexico border, and it’s more than 70 percent Latino.

If a backlash to Trump — the president who demonizes Mexican Americans, separates children from their parents at the border and obsesses about building a border wall — were to materialize anywhere, you would think it would be here.

But in Texas, perennial concerns about low Latino turnout are again rearing their head. “If you were banking on the Bexar County Democratic Party to carry a heavy share of the load [in the 23rd], you probably want to rethink your plan,” Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, warned.

It's quite something.

A few observations:

•  Strong Border Security positions help in November -- While Hurd is a sometimes squish, Flores isn't.  That this is happening at the same time as Trump is doing what he's doing (and the legislature is, however reluctantly, doing what they're doing) tells you everything you need to know.  If the GOP's immigration position were "toxic,' they wouldn't be winning in Southwest Texas.

• The Democrats are simply too liberal (esp. on Guns and Babies) -- We've made this observation before, but it remains true.

• The Failure to address Carlos Uresti has cost Democrats DEARLY -- Another observation we've made previously.  But all they had to do was do the right thing when either the financial or the sexual stuff came out.  But they didn't....

• Southwest Texas REALLY isn't into Bobby Francis -- These are the same counties that he lost in his primary disaster.

Bottom Line: This is VERY bad news for the Democrats....