Castro launches campaign (for Governor in '22)

"There are many plans in a man’s heart,
Nevertheless the Lord’s counsel—that will stand."
Proverbs 19:21

We spent today in meetings related to session, but apparently this happened:

SAN ANTONIO — Julián Castro made it official Saturday: He is running for president.

The former U.S. housing secretary and San Antonio mayor made the long-anticipated announcement at Plaza Guadalupe, near where he grew up on the city's West Side. It came a month after Castro formed an exploratory committee, a mere formality on his way to unveiling a 2020 bid that for months appeared likely.

"I'm running for president because it's time for new leadership, it's time for new energy and it’s time for a new commitment to make sure that the opportunities that I had are available to every American," he said.

Blah, blah, blah...

Understand something: Julian Castro will not be the Democrat presidential nominee.  The only elections in which Julian Castro has ever run have been municipal elections in San Antonio.   A municipal campaign anywhere in Texas is, to put it mildly, a different animal from a presidential campaign.

For those unaware: Most Texas cities hold their municipal elections in May.  That means dramatically lower turnout than a November general election.  Heck, that usually means dramatically lower turnout than March primaries.

Consider Castro's three elections as mayor.

2009:

2011:

2013:

This is a guy who has never gotten more than 43,000 votes in an election.  Furthermore, his vote totals plunged as San Antonio got to know him better.  Castro was widely expected to lose his 2015 campaign, which was why Obama offered him the golden parachute at HUD in the first place.

And we're supposed to believe that a guy who's never gotten more than 43,000 votes is going to wage a successful national campaign?!?

Riiiiiiight....

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...however.

That does not mean his campaign lacks long-term implications.  A presidential campaign boosts Castro's name ID to the point where he's a viable candidate for Governor.  And 2022, as a six-year itch election, could get really dicey.

[**COUGH, COUGH** Especially with this president ** COUGH,COUGH]

That's not to say that Julian Castro is currently planning a gubernatorial run.  We have no doubt that Julian Castro believes in his own mind that he can win the current race.  But it is to say, however, that a Governor run is Castro's logical next play.

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A few thoughts on Castro, in case opposition researchers are reading.

Julian Castro has been playing "the game" in Texas for close to 20 years.  During his time as mayor, he was surrounded by a miasma of crony capitalism.  Nothing ever stuck but, as we said above, there's a reason why Obama gave him the golden parachute prior to the 2015 election.

[Note: We don't have the time or interest to do it ourselves, but if an enterprising blogger/oppo researcher/reporter were so inclined, it could be very interesting to read Castro's campaign finance reports from his mayoral runs and cross reference those against zoning changes made by the SA city council during Castro's tenure.]

Speaking of dirty San Antonio politics, there's also this:

Specifically this:

See here for more.

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Bottom Line: Castro's presidential campaign likely won't amount to much, but it could still have long-term implications.

#TXLEGE: Pre-Emption bill likely to focus on wide range of municipal abuses of employers

"Is it not lawful for me to do what I wish with my own things? Or is your eye evil because I am good?"
Matthew 20:15

"We're going to figure out how to most effectively stop cities from micromanaging employment.  It will cover sick leave.  But it might not be limited to sick leave."

So said Senator Donna Campbell at this morning's TPPF policy orientation panel on the so-called "sick leave" entitlement the city of Austin created last year.

This is good.  Micromanaging the relationship between employees and employers naturally begets fewer jobs and lower wages.  While the Austin "sick leave" entitlement was the latest attempt along these lines, it won't be the last.  The legislature is wise to plan for the future.

Campbell pointed out how complicated employment regulations empower big business at the expense of non-profits, small businesses, and startups.  Big business can afford the lawyers.  Non-profits, small businesses, and startups cannot.

During Q & A, this author could not help pointing out that the city of Austin's ordinance is the direct, and predicable, of conservatives' failure to engage on the local level.  In a room full of people wondering how such a crazy policy was passed, we were the only person was at council that night.  There's a direct relationship between those facts.  Former United States Senator Phil Gramm agreed.

Also noteworthy: We told Senator Campbell about Wendy Davis' comments on the night the Austin entitlement passed.

Bottom Line: Nothing good can come from municipal governments attempting to micromanage the relationship between employers and employees....

#TXLEGE: An all sorts of interesting panel about property taxes

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

"If we don't fix it this session, we're in big trouble."

So said Drew Springer at this afternoon's TPPF policy orientation panel on property taxes.

The panel featured a number of interesting nuggets; among them:

• Senator Paul Bettencourt on Speaker Bonnen's willingness to engage the issue in good faith: "Quite a departure from the last speaker."

• Bettencourt -- As property values go up, tax rates have to go down.

• Bettencourt -- "The state has to stop Robin Hood."

• Bettencourt plugged uniform election dates.

• Tarrant County Judge Glenn Whitley gave a lot of the usual talking points about "state mandated services" such as a court system and jails...but, if courts and jails were the only thing on which counties were spending their money, there wouldn't be a problem.

• To his credit, Whitley also mentioned the ENORMOUS sums Texas gives away as tax exemptions; we've previously discussed how this could be an area of widespread cross-partisan consensus.

• Springer calls for using new revenue from various excise type taxes to buy down property taxes.

• Fun local fact: Apparently, Travis county has had the slowest county tax growth of any major urban county in the state!!!

• And the kicker: DREW SPRINGER.  ENDORSES.  AUTOMATIC ROLLBACK ELECTIONS.

That last one is the hugest of them all.  Last session, Drew Springer was one of the primary obstacles to property tax reform.  Honestly, it's noteworthy that Drew Springer is constructively engaging on this issue in the first place.

We know a few people on Facebook were mad about an obscure thing that happened in yesterday's rules debate, but today we found ourselves wondering who this guy was and what he had done with the Drew Springer from last session.

But we'll take it.

Bottom Line: It's too soon to tell the form in which it will take shape, but there will be tangible progress on this issue this session....

#TXLEGE: Speaker's office mends some important fences

"but as He who called you is holy, you also be holy in all your conduct,"
1 Peter 1:15

"The way you keep a Republic is by being a truthteller."

So said Speaker Bonnen this morning at TPPF's policy orientation.  The speaker said so in reference to TPPF, an organization he praised for "fearlessly promoting ideas" in the legislature.  It was subtle, but it was unmistakable.

We've previously discussed the significance of the speaker showing up at this event, but today's remarks took it a step further.

In 2013, the 83rd legislature increased spending by 26%.  TPPF called them out on it at the time.  It was the single most effective attack on legislative leadership during Straus' tenure.  Straus never forgave them.

For the new speaker to praise "truthtellers" "fearlessly promoting ideas" regardless of political favor is not an accident.

Bonnen also took subtle, but noteworthy, jabs at the educrat lobby.  Specifically, he said "we need education to be more responsive."  Taxpayers deserve "a return on their investment" on education spending.  Bonnen was also gracious and complimentary towards Ken Paxton.

Bottom Line:  If you knew what to look for, it was impossible to miss....

#TXLEGE: House's new sexual harassment policy...doesn't look like it changes much

"But fornication and all uncleanness or covetousness, let it not even be named among you, as is fitting for saints;"
Ephesians 5:3

From today's rules debate:

Amid continued scrutiny over how lawmakers handle reports of sexual misconduct by their colleagues, members of the House on Wednesday approved a measure that will strengthen the way the chamber addresses complaints of sexual harassment.

As part of a unanimous vote on the House's standard housekeeping resolution that governs its operations, the chamber approved a new internal policy that would move investigative duties for complaints of inappropriate behavior to a legislative committee with subpoena power. It also cements the use of independent investigations of elected officials.

....

Under the new policy, sexual harassment complaints would go through the chamber's general investigating committee, which would investigate and recommend sanctions based on the severity of the harassment. If the complaint involves a member of the House, the committee would be required to appoint an independent investigator.

House members made a slight change to the proposed policy that specified any independent investigation of a state representative would be a fact-finding mission only and not involved in any potential remedial action.

In other words, this is still the House investigating the House.  Sure, they say they'll appoint an "independent investigator."  Baylor did the same thing.

We all know how that worked out.

Furthermore, there's no timetable for potential investigations.  This means the House can still slow walk things.  Delay still equals death.

That being said, to the House's credit, at least they don't have Borris Miles and Charles Schwertner continuing to hide in plain sight.

Bottom Line: It's probably a small amount of incremental progress, but the underlying dynamic remains unchanged.

#TXLEGE: Senate Tea Leaves

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

"Differences will be settled in a professional manner."

Dan Patrick spoke at TPPF's policy orientation this afternoon.  The quote above was in response to a question about how he expects to work with Dennis Bonnen.  It's also a good summary of what (at least so far) seems to be different under the new speaker.

Patrick stated the top priorities for this session were the interrelated issues of property taxes/school finance/teacher pay.  A more efficient school finance system frees up money for property tax relief/reform.  In order to accomplish a more efficient school finance system, you need to "repurpose" money out of the bureaucracy into the classroom.  Patrick made a really interesting point about it being difficult to blame teachers for turning into bureaucrats when you look at the pay disparity between the two.

Kel Seliger also spoke on a panel about higher ed.

Seliger said some things with which we agreed and some things with which we disagreed.  He'll still do that.  He's still Seliger.  But Seliger's tone seemed constructive, not obstructionist (which is smart, considering that we don't need his vote in a special session).

Bottom Line: Obviously, the margin for error is a lot thinner in the Senate this session.  On some issues, the window is closed.  But, barring unforced errors, the votes are there on most issues.   If it takes a special session (16 votes instead of 19), so be it.

#TXLEGE: Some subtle, positive, signs from Bonnen

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Nobody's surprised Dennis Bonnen was elected speaker yesterday, but a couple moves he made shortly thereafter were very interesting.

First, did you notice who's sat behind Bonnen as he gave his acceptance speech?!?

Jeff Leach and Stephanie Klick.

If Jeff Leach and Stephanie Klick were invited to sit behind the speaker as he addressed the body, that means conservatives are no longer shut out of the speaker's office.  It doesn't necessarily mean we get everything we want.  But it does mean we're no longer being artificially shut out.

After the House adjourned, Bonnen then attended Ken Paxton's swearing in ceremony (as the picture above attests).

It wasn't anything Bonnen said or did at the Paxton event...but the fact that he was there spoke volumes.

Put differently: Can you imagine Dennis Bonnen's predecessor showing up at a Ken Paxton event?!?

Subtle, but huge.

Bottom Line:  A lot of work remains...but for the first time in a long time it looks like that work might not be pointless.