#TXLEGE: Why Bonnen's Political Gambit is Irrelevant

"Moreover you took your sons and your daughters, whom you bore to Me, and these you sacrificed to them to be devoured. Were your acts of harlotry a small matter,"
Ezekiel 16:20

We said our piece yesterday about the big 3's latest fundraising.  Pretty self-explanatory.  That being said, it's worth exploring why Dennis Bonnen's latest effort won't make a difference to which party controls the Texas house next session.

To refresh, from yesterday:

Republican Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen has launched a political action committee to help defend the GOP majority as Democrats push to take the lower chamber in 2020.

Bonnen, an Angleton Republican, has started the group, Texas Leads, with $3 million from his campaign account, his team announced Monday. The political action committee will focus exclusively on reelecting GOP members to the House — a move consistent with Bonnen's insistence that incumbents do not campaign against one another.

Obviously, Bonnen is refusing to play offense.  As we explained yesterday, that's the #1 reason why this isn't a serious effort.  You can't win a war playing defense 100% of the time.

[Note: Good defense helps, but the Texas GOP is hardly the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and Dennis Bonnen is certainly no Trent Dilfer].

Beyond that, however, control of the Texas house will hinge on two factors:

• The National Environment -- Like it or not, 85% of next year's outcome will depend on what voters think about Donald Trump compared with what voters think about whomever the Democrats nominate.
  
  That's it.
  
  If the national environment stays where it is right now, the GOP will be fine statewide (although Pete Flores is toast).
  
  If the national environment moves a few points in Trump's favor (aka. voters decide they hate the Democrat more), the GOP will gain back a good chunk of the ground they lost in 2018.
  
  If the national environment moves a few points in the Democrats favor (aka. voters decide they hate Trump more), the bottom will drop out for the GOP.
  
  You tell us the national environment on Wednesday of the second week of early voting, and we'll tell you the outcome of the election.
  
  [Note: The GOP could have used this past legislative session to develop its own identity separate from Trump...but that ship has sailed.]

• How hard individual candidates work -- Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that national factors create a down-ballot environment where effort matters, responsibility for that effort will fall on individual candidates.
  
  Partisanship is the #1 factor in determining election outcomes, personal contact is #2.
  
  Some campaigns do it, other campaigns don't.

Against those two factors, the speaker's team sponsoring another mailer or another robocall makes no difference.

Bottom Line: 24 hours ago, a wide range of outcomes was possible in legislative races.  Today, a wide range of outcomes remain possible in legislative races.  Which of those outcomes ultimately materializes will depend almost entirely on factors outside of our control.  Dennis Bonnen's announcement changes none of that.

#TXLEGE: Big 3 commit to full employment for campaign consultants

"If you see the oppression of the poor, and the violent [a]perversion of justice and righteousness in a province, do not marvel at the matter; for high official watches over high official, and higher officials are over them."
Ecclesiastes 5:8

July 15 campaign finance reports are out.

Abbott:

Gov. Greg Abbott raised a staggering $12.1 million over two weeks last month after the legislative session ended and he was free accept contributions again, his campaign announced Monday.

It is the most the Republican governor has raked in during the traditionally dayslong fundraising sprint following the legislative session. The latest haul brought his cash-on-hand total to $26.3 million, according to his campaign.

Patrick:

HOUSTON TX – Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick will report raising over $3 million on his July 15, 2019 Texas Ethics Commission report, bringing his campaign war chest total to over $11 million.

“I am grateful for all the support I have received and proud of this strong and clear endorsement of the conservative policies I am fighting for — life, liberty and Texas values, lean and efficient government and pro-business policies that are keeping the Texas economy strong.

“I have spoken to hundreds of grassroots and business leaders across the state since the legislative session ended in May and they are counting on me to continue the fight to shrink the size of government, reduce taxes and oppose the job-killing agenda put forward by liberals. I remain grateful for the opportunity to serve as Lt. Governor and I look forward to continuing the work we are doing to make the greatest state in the nation even greater.”

Bonnen:

Republican Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen has launched a political action committee to help defend the GOP majority as Democrats push to take the lower chamber in 2020.

Bonnen, an Angleton Republican, has started the group, Texas Leads, with $3 million from his campaign account, his team announced Monday. The political action committee will focus exclusively on reelecting GOP members to the House — a move consistent with Bonnen's insistence that incumbents do not campaign against one another.

[Note: If Bonnen's gambit were a serious effort, he'd go on offense. He's not. That tells you everything.]

This is dumb.  It accomplishes nothing.  Except that Dave Carney, Allan Blakemore, and whatever hacks are advising Bonnen get paid.

Also: Mailers!!!

Lots of campaign mailers!!!

Bottom Line: Conspicuous fundraising when not facing competitive races is a great way to build fiefdoms....

#TXLEGE: (Because of Dade Phelan) San Antonio employers forced to sue city

"For a righteous man may fall seven times
And rise again,
But the wicked shall fall by calamity."
Proverbs 24:16

Given where we're at, this was unavoidable:

The City of San Antonio may face a lawsuit over its upcoming Paid Sick Leave ordinance.

The ordinance takes effect on August 1. It was a citizen driven petition allowed under the city charter and was required to be approved by the San Antonio City Council, which it did last year.

It requires San Antonio businesses to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked by an employee. The requirements of how much time can be accrued vary based on business size.

It’s been met with push back from businesses owners and now a lawsuit may be on the table.

[Note: This author has no specific knowledge, but logic suggests a similar lawsuit will soon be filed in Dallas.]

This is INFURIATING.

There's a strong legal case to make against so-called municipal "sick leave" ordinances.  So-called municipal "sick leave" ordinances clearly conflict with the Texas minimum wage act.  Nevertheless, lawsuits cost money and take time.  They're inherently uncertain.

Of course, had the legislature passed the preemption bills, this wouldn't matter.

As we recently wrote:

On April 11, the Texas Senate passed SB’s 2485-88 to pre-empt sick leave ordinances along with other local wage and benefit mandates. Yet these bills died in the Texas House.

In an effort to appease frivolous objections from left-wing interest groups, House State Affairs Committee chairman Dade Phelan, a Republican, slow-walked them past the point of relevance.

THANKS DADE PHELAN!!!

Meanwhile, employers in San Antonio are at the mercy of the courts.

INFURIATING.

And completely preventable.

Bottom Line: Unless something changes, these so-called municipal "sick leave" ordinances are going to haunt Texas for a long time.

An underappreciated difference between Rick Perry and Greg Abbott

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Obviously, we've said our piece about this situation between Abbott and council.  Abbott making empty threats is the worst of all worlds.  It inflames and emboldens council, but the rest of us see no relief.

It's incredibly frustrating.

Earlier today, however, we realized something: Rick Perry would have never put up with this crap.

Don't get us wrong: There's a very good chance Rick Perry might have ignored it.

However, had Rick Perry chosen to engage, he would back up his talk.  Following the level of insolence and lip Abbott's received from council, had Rick Perry been in a similar situation Perry would have called a special just to remind everyone he could.  Manhood, whipping it out, and what not....

The truth about both Perry and Abbott, of course, is that they both were/are absentee governors.  Both were/are more interesting in grandstanding on national issues than doing the job of governor.  But at least Rick Perry, bless his heart, played to win on the days he showed up as governor.

Bottom Line: Win the fight.  Or avoid the fight.  That's a lesson our current governor could learn from his predecessor.

Cornyn's Actions Continue to Undermine Cornyn's Own Case for Cornyn's re-election

"My little children, let us not love in word or in tongue, but in deed and in truth."
1 John 3:18

Via Powerline:

Politico reports that President Trump and Senate Republicans “are moving quickly to back up beleaguered Labor Secretary Alex Acosta.” They are doing so in the face of “rising pressure. . .from other corners of the White House, with acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney privately urging the president to dismiss him.”

Unlike Trump and Senate Republicans, Mulvaney has direct knowledge of Acosta’s performance at the Labor Department. He knows that Acosta stalled the implementation of important deregulatory initiatives and, through his agent, lied to him about the reason for the delay.

Mulvaney also understands, as everyone with an ounce of sense does, that Acosta is a political liability because of the sweetheart deal he made with serial pedophile Jeffrey Epstein — a deal that a federal judge says violated the law because it failed to provide notice to Epstein’s victims.

Yet Sen. John Cornyn intones, “I would point out that nothing new has come out, and we ought to reserve judgment until any new information is revealed.”

What new information does Cornyn need? We know the plea deal was scandalously lenient. We know it was reached between Acosta and a former colleague (and Washington power player) at a remote location, instead of at the U.S. Attorney’s office where plea deals are always negotiated. We know the deal has been adjudged illegal.

What is Sen. Cornyn’s standard of conduct? Is he waiting to see whether Acosta was bribed? He wasn’t. He was seduced by a Washington power player — the kind of guy who could help him down the road become a Cabinet member and/or a judge.

[Note: The full Politico story is insane.]

Wow.

There's a lot you could say about this in the context of national politics.  There's a lot you could say about this in the context of the Epststein case [Note: That we even have to type that sentence].  But let's limit the discussion to the context of John Cornyn's re-election campaign.

John Cornyn makes two claims while campaigning:

1. John Cornyn supports Trump.
   
2. John Cornyn is good for the national economy.

Cornyn's actions belie both.  It doesn't take a genius to see how Cornyn's undermining the President.  As for the national economy...does anyone seriously believe Labor Unions are good for it?!?

That this is all being done to the benefit of an apparent deep state operative with ties to Jeffrey Epstein is just the icing on the cake.

Credibility, eventually, dries up.  We have no idea of the timing.  It may or may not be during the current election cycle.

But it's inevitable.

Bottom Line: We have no idea how the current election cycle plays out, but anyone who thinks this nonsense is sustainable much longer is kidding themselves.

#TXLEGE: Nepotistic Twit (LSAT Score: 147) to seek his Daddy's Old Job

"but if you show partiality, you commit sin, and are convicted by the law as transgressors."
James 2:9

You have GOT to be effing kidding:

I am announcing my candidacy for Texas House District 10. I’m running to ensure the voices of the citizens in Ellis Co and Henderson Co are heard in Austin & that our state gov is focused on making our lives better. I look forward to earning your support! #txlege #hd10 #txgop

— Ryan Pitts (@jpitts12) July 10, 2019

That's the "Young Man" from this story:

The loudest voice in the Legislature calling for Hall's head, Waxahachie House Republican Jim Pitts, turned out to be the father of a young man whose admission to the law school was at the center of the controversy. Pitts has since announced he will not seek re-election.

....

On August 21, 2013, Kevin Williamson, a reporter writing in The National Review, a conservative semimonthly publication founded by the late William F. Buckley Jr., published a story based on a phone call to House Appropriations Committee chairman Jim Pitts. In that call Williamson bluffed Pitts into admitting that his own son Ryan Pitts was one of the low entrance exam scorers who got into the UT Law School through the back door, after Pitts himself had interceded for him.

Pitts launched a vituperative attack on Hall, accusing him of leaking legally protected information about a student, his son, to Williamson, which Pitts insisted was a crime. But the day after Williamson's story appeared, Pitts announced he was retiring from the Legislature.

A week later a story by Reeve Hamilton in The Texas Tribune provided Pitts a podium from which to make an unchallenged defense. He admitted writing a letter asking the law school to admit his son, but he told the Tribune, "Did I ever call for my son -- or the over 100 people I've recommended over the years -- and ask for special treatment? No, I did not."

The Tribune story said Pitts "added that writing such letters has long been standard practice for lawmakers at the Capitol." And there The Texas Tribune, which has received six-figure gifts from the university system, let the matter rest.

Eight months later in a triumph of virtuoso investigative reporting, Jon Cassidy, writing for Watchdog.org, an online news service sponsored by a conservative foundation, laid out the real back story of the law school admissions racket. Pitts had told the truth about one thing: It was standard practice.

It gets better:

Two of the students are known to have LSAT scores well below UT standards. James Ryan Pitts, son of House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jim Pitts, has now failed the bar exam three times since graduation (*) after scoring a 155 and a 147 on the LSAT, which is scored on a scale of 120 to 180. Those scores rank in the 64th percentile and 33rd percentile nationwide, and are well below the scores in the mid-160s that UT usually requires.

* -- According to a trusted Capitol source, that number was up to nine by January 2017.

Now Ryan Pitts wants Daddeh's old gig.

This is the swamp.

Bottom Line: This is some old skool good ol' boy Texas politics right here....

The Two Questions Texas Republicans OUGHT to Ask Themselves

"Let nothing be done through selfish ambition or conceit, but in lowliness of mind let each esteem others better than himself."
Philippians 2:3

[Note I: We outlined a more comprehensive forward looking policy agenda back in January.]

[Note II: In terms of redistricting, it's not quite as clear what will happen in the DFW area.  Thus, the situation there is a little more complicated.  But the basic principle about urban areas still applies.]

To be honest, now is a wildly premature time to discuss the RPT chair race.  There will be plenty of opportunity for backbiting, gossip, and place intrigue once precinct conventions start.  Nevertheless, if the discussion is going to be forced upon us, we might as well use the time productively.

Thus, we suggest the following two questions.

1. How do you compete in urban areas?!?
   Like it or not, Texas is urbanizing.
   
   Travis, Bexar, and Harris counties are all going to gain seats in the next redistricting.  While a favorable map can delay the day of reckoning, by the middle of next decade there will be no path to 76 seats that doesn't include better performances in the three counties mentioned above.  Those better performances, by definition, will have to include territory inside those respective cities' limits.
   
   The good news is that Democrat-controlled local governments give plenty of material with which to work.  The bad news is that, blessed with such a bounty, Republicans either a) Completely ignore the opportunity or b) Engage it so buffoonishly that it's counterproductive.  That being said, a serious, non-buffoonish, approach to urban governance could produce results faster than most people suspect.
   
   As we explained to the Texas Senate in 2017, in the context of legislation protecting the property rights of those who want to use their investment properties as short-term rentals:
   
   
   
   If the GOP wants more days like March 14, 2017 in the Texas Senate, they're there for the taking.
   
   There are those who will take the need to compete in urban areas as an excuse to go soft on so-called "social issues."  Nonsense.  If anything, smart discussions of life and religious liberty will help with older members of the African-American and Hispanic communities.
   
   That being said, so-called "social issues" are largely irrelevant.  What's needed is an intelligent conversation about gentrification.  By the way, it just so happens that gentrification is 100% caused by government.
   
   Unfortunately, this is the point where the second question becomes unavoidable.
   
2. How do you break the logjam in the legislature?!?
   
   We just wrote a cute little essay about how a future-oriented GOP could conceivably become more competitive in urban areas...but the dirty little secret is that those bills ain't goin' nowhere in this legislature.
   
   That cute little schpiel we gave about residents of Austin thanking the Texas Senate?!?
   
   That bill died.
   
   That's the case on many, many, issues.
   
   While it's great to discuss growth and future opportunities, none of it means anything if the legislature refuses to pass the relevant legislation.
   
   Organizations that don't have credibility can't grow.  They might survive, for awhile, by being modestly less crappy.  But the reckoning will come.  Eventually.
   
   The only real question is whether the economic reckoning or the political reckoning comes first.

Obviously, this author has our own opinions about answers (*).    This isn't about us, or our "6-point miracle plan to save Texas."  If we had one of those, we would have offered it a long time ago.

But it is to say that those are the two questions we believe should guide the discussion.

2024 and 2026 are eventually going to show up.  When they do, this author doesn't see a path to 76 Texas house seats without better performances in Travis, Bexar, and Harris counties.  Within city limits.

Bottom Line: These are our thoughts, take 'em or leave 'em....

-------

* -- Housing costs on the urban issue, abolishing taxpayer funded lobbying/union dues collection on "how to fix the lege."