Biden hands Texas GOP late gift...will they exploit it?!?

"For we do not commend ourselves again to you, but give you opportunity to boast on our behalf, that you may have an answer for those who boast in appearance and not in heart."
2 Corinthians 5:12

Wow:

“The oil industry pollutes significantly,” Biden said. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time. Over time.”

Not a lot to add. That remark speaks for itself. Its' negative impact on Texas is obvious.

We were actually in the process of writing a long post about whether the GOP would respond to this...when the Governor and John Cornyn released the following statement:

.@GregAbbott_TX's statement on @JoeBiden's #Debates2020 comments last night about his proposal to phase out the #oilandgas industry. #txlege pic.twitter.com/Dn4aPcphkf

— Brad Johnson (@bradj_TX) October 23, 2020

That's actually a good start. But this needs to reach saturation level. Between now and election day, Biden's remark about eliminating the energy industry as we know it has to be inescapable.

Bottom Line: They don't deserve this level of gift. But they got it. We'll see what they do with it.

#TXSEN: Cornyn, meanwhile, WHINES about swear words

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

LOL:

New @JohnCornyn spot hits @mjhegar for cursing on the campaign trail: https://t.co/VkA6XKJO2t #TXSEN

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 22, 2020

What a...ducking...gimp.

Does John Cornyn actually think anyone cares?!?

Cuz' they don't.

This is nothing new. When Hegar first entered this race, Cornyn's first attack was over modestly PG-13 level language. We addressed the lameness of that strategy at the time. There's nothing we can add today to what we've already said.

Bottom Line:  Cornyn's almost certainly fine.  Hegar's positions on the issues assure that.  Nevertheless, for Cornyn to castigate his opponent for having a personality highlights his own lack thereof.

#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:

A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”

We're of two minds about this:

• Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
• Note: This is the likely explanation.

** OR **

• They know something the rest of us don't.
• Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.

Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Hegar (Completely Accurately) Kicks Cornyn in Teeth

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;

But by a man of understanding and knowledge Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Back in January, we sat down to analyze a potential general election between MJ Hegar and John Cornyn. It turned into a lot of work, so we never finished it. With that field now set, maybe it makes sense to loop back. We'll see.

But the TL,DR version is that MJ Hegar is a **VERY** good candidate. And John Cornyn's record is completely indefensible. And that's not a good place for any three term incumbent.

In her opening salvo of the general election, Hegar illustrates why:

Ignore the first minute. It's the type of self-promoting fluff you see from any politician. For our purposes, what matters is her takedown of Cornyn in minute two.

Specifically, Hegar makes three claims:

• Cornyn's poll numbers suck.

• Cornyn's made several asinine comments about COVID (which she plays in all of their excruciating detail).

• In response to Cornyn's gaffes: "That's ridiculous."

Here's the thing: All three of those claims are accurate.

[Note: See here and here.]

Furthermore, that's just the past few months.  John Cornyn has three terms worth of baggage.  If Hegar can exploit it....

Bottom Line: This race...could get interesting.

Runoff Elections 2020: What 2 Watch 4

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

With runoff elections today, here are some things on which to keep an eye. We don't claim this list is comprehensive. Nevertheless, it's what we'll be watching for.

Democrats:

• U.S. Senate -- We've been meaning to do a longer writeup on this topic for about six months, but haven't gotten around to it.  Nevertheless, MJ Hegar is, easily and by far, the most compelling Democrat to run for statewide office in at least a decade.  Royce West, by contrast, is a rather middling state senator.
  
  Cornyn's 100% safe against West. He's probably about 85% safe against Hegar. In the event, however, that Donald Trump and Greg Abbott continue to run the national/statewide environment into the ground, do NOT underestimate her.

• Travis County County/District Attorney -- While they aren't related, Delia and Jose Garza are running for those respective criminal justice positions on essentially pro-criminal platforms.  Woe unto all of us if either of them wins. Both are favorites.

• Dutton/Lucio -- Two of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature face unexpected runoffs.  Both seem likely to win comfortably...but we would have said that in the first round.  Major implications for next session if either falls short.

Republicans:

• Abbott's coattails -- Honestly, this is the only GOP question that matters right now.  Abbott's made a big show out of endorsing in five races.  In two others he's made endorsements that are essentially gimmes.
  
  Abbott really needs to run the table; if he loses more than one of these races, it's a **MAJOR** embarrassment.

• HD-60 (Francis/Rogers):  Foremost among races where Greg Abbott has run his mouth is this open seat race for an otherwise obscure state rep seat west of Ft. Worth.  Jon Francis is the consensus conservative candidate.  Abbott recently declared war on Francis' family.
  
  Ted Cruz, by contrast, has endorsed Francis.
  
  Abbott really needs his candidate (Glen Rodgers) to clear 60%.

• Morrow's race: Barring a (richly deserved) act of Divine retribution, the latest season of "Robert Morrow torments the Texas GOP" likely ends tonight.
  
  Nevertheless, it's been (really, really, really) funny.
  
  The final margin will still be interesting. Had the GOP handled this situation even remotely competently, Morrow wouldn't clear 10%. If Morrow gets north of 30%, that's an embarrassment for the GOP, no matter how they try to spin it.

Again, this list isn't comprehensive.

[Note: Texas Scorecard has an analysis of both parties Congressional runoffs here.]

Bottom Line: The macro-narratives are "can the Dems seize an opportunity (for once)" vs. "can the GOP avoid utterly, totally, and completely humiliating themselves (all over again)."  We don't pretend to know the answer.  Stay tuned.

"Seniority" is a terrible reason to vote for anyone...ESPECIALLY Pete Sessions

"Therefore by their fruits you will know them."
Matthew 7:20

We've seen some chatter on social media about Pete Sessions telling people that his Seniority will allow him to do good things if he gets back to Congress. Don't believe it. At least, don't expect him to do anything good for central Texas.

We actually addressed this argument last fall, in the context of a different federal official:

Obviously, this website doesn't *really* support pork-barrel governance. Taxpayers elsewhere in the U.S. shouldn't *really* subsidize I-35 expansion. Still, for such a situation to emerge under the jurisdiction of a U.S. Senator who claims to "work within the system" indicates said U.S. Senator's incompetence.

Put differently: $23 Trillion national debt...and John Cornyn STILL can't secure funding for (already federal) I-35.

It's quite something.

Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn may have been completely wretched. But at least Texas got some infrastructure out of them. With John Cornyn, we get the wretchedness without the infrastructure.

Here's what's funny: When we originally wrote that post, we came very close to including Sessions. The only reason we didn't is that Sessions wasn't currently in office. But if Sessions is trying to use this argument to get back into office, then it's worth considering the same thing.

Pete Sessions was a congressman in Dallas for twenty years. Did traffic in Dallas get better or worse during that time?!? If Pete Sessions couldn't secure federal funding to address the I-30/35/45 cluster[REDACTED], what makes anyone think Sessions "seniority" will mean anything good for anyone besides Pete Sessions?!?

Again, this is **NOT** an endorsement of pork-barrel governance, but it is to say that if Pete Sessions alleged "seniority" meant anything...Dallas would have had a lot more bacon.

After twenty years of Pete Sessions, Dallas remains largely bacon free.

Bottom Line: Dallas traffic tells you everything you need to know about whether or not Pete Sessions' alleged "seniority" bears fruit for his constituents.

Cornyn and Patrick AREN'T HELPING

"The tongue of the wise uses knowledge rightly,
But the mouth of fools pours forth foolishness."
Proverbs 15:2

What would a public health crisis be without Texas politicians acting like retards?!?

Exhibit #1:

Sen. John Cornyn: "China is to blame because the culture where people eat bats & snakes & dogs & things like that, these viruses are transmitted from the animal to the people and that's why China has been the source of a lot of these viruses like SARS, like MERS, the Swine Flu." pic.twitter.com/N4TIlGFqAL

— The Hill (@thehill) March 18, 2020

Hoo boy.

We get it: This virus started in China.  Once the virus was out, the Chinese government made the situation infinitely worse by covering it up.  Since then, they've launched an international disinformation campaign to brand discussion of these facts as racist.  These are all valid points.

Unfortunately, John Cornyn didn't make any of those points.

Instead, John Cornyn made a sensationalistic comment about a third or fourth tier issue that's not relevant at the present time.

Maybe it is the case that some of the...strange...Chinese culinary habits contributed to this outbreak.  Maybe it isn't.  It certainly is yet to be proved.  At best, it's speculative.

Even if that does end up being the case, however, for elected officials to engage such idle chatter is insanely reckless.

And don't get us started on this.

That being said, on the subject of Texas politicians acting like retards, it's hard to beat Exhibit #2:

Texas Lt. Governor @DanPatrick: “No one reached out to me & said...are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children & grandchildren. & if that’s the exchange, I’m all in....”
pic.twitter.com/SNSFlX9fFg

— David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) March 24, 2020

SMDH.

Once again, there's a very valid discussion to be had over whether or not actions currently being taken by government are good or bad.  It's not exactly a secret where this website stands.  But there's a responsible way to make that point.  Lt. Dan's comment's ain't it.

Instead, Lt. Dan provoked a backlash that will, if anything, make it more difficult to get back to normal.  It certainly doesn't help the credibility of our statewide so-called "leadership."  Reckless, at best.

Sensationalistic dumbassery helps nothing.

Bottom Line:  At best, Cornyn and Patrick unleashed an...extremely poor ratio of backlash to substance.

Cornyn's latest poll numbers are pretty terrible (but that's also nothing new)

"If a ruler pays attention to lies,
All his servants become wicked."
Proverbs 29:12

From the latest Trib poll:

Adding John Cornyn's job approval ratings in the @UTAustin / @TexasTribune Poll released this morning to the trend graphic for data from November 2015 to February 2020 https://t.co/4j80JiKFtq via @TxPolProject #tx2020 #txlege pic.twitter.com/aZkforoLGk

— Jim Henson (@jamesrhenson) February 15, 2020

We recommend exploring Jim Henson's links in more detail.

That being said, the key takeaways are:

• Cornyn's net approval rating is three points underwater.

• Cornyn's underwater with independents.

• Cornyn's job approval with Republicans is only 66%.

Those numbers are terrible for a three term incumbent.

We discussed this phenomenon a few months ago, when the last Trib poll came out.  We don't have anything new to add.  That piece remains our best guess as to an explanation.  This week's poll merely confirms the trend.

That trend ain't good.

That being said, in writing this blog post, we came across this post from 2013.  Cornyn's poll numbers weren't very good back then either.  Yet Cornyn proceeded to solidly (if not spectacularly) win both the primary and the general election that cycle.

So history's probably on Cornyn's side, especially now that national Democrats seem to be specialized in getting lousy Republicans across the finish line in Texas.

Still, nobody should be under the illusion that Cornyn's a strong candidate.

Bottom Line: Given recent developments nationally, it might not matter.  But the national environment can change quickly.  If it does, a three term incumbent with weak ratings in his own party, who's underwater with everybody else, probably isn't your best bet.

Cornyn, Schumer, and an EPIC self own

"Wise people store up knowledge,
But the mouth of the foolish is near destruction."
Proverbs 10:14

ICYMI, earlier this week national Democrats waded into the U.S. Senate primary:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is endorsing MJ Hegar in the crowded primary to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

This is a completely boring, irrelevant, and predictable announcement.  Of course national Democrats think Hegar is the strongest candidate.  That's been obvious for months to anyone with half a brain.

Nevertheless:

Texans knew from day one that Hollywood Hegar was the handpicked candidate of Chuck Schumer.

We get it: Chuck Schumer is bad.  That's not wrong.  It's a 2004 era argument.  Just because the playbook is old, however, does not mean the underlying assertion is incorrect.

But then this happened:



Less than a week after they wave the "Chuck Schumer" bloody shirt, Chuck Schumer votes against a spending bill that John Cornyn votes for.

It's kinda classic.

Bottom Line: When actions and words contradict, trust actions.

For an 18-year incumbent with "Seniority," Cornyn can't even work system

"And whatever you do in word or deed, do all in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father through Him."
Colossians 3:17

We recently observed traffic on I-35 in downtown Austin when we had a thought: Isn't I-35, technically, a federal highway?!?

Furthermore...isn't our senior Senator the #2 Republican in the United States Senate?!?

Obviously, this website doesn't *really* support pork-barrel governance.  Taxpayers elsewhere in the U.S. shouldn't *really* subsidize I-35 expansion.  Still, for such a situation to emerge under the jurisdiction of a  U.S. Senator who claims to "work within the system" indicates said U.S. Senator's incompetence.

Put differently: $23 Trillion national debt...and John Cornyn STILL can't secure funding for (already federal) I-35.

It's quite something.

Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn may have been completely wretched.  But at least Texas got some infrastructure out of them.  With John Cornyn, we get the wretchedness without the infrastructure.

Bottom Line: If we're going to be stuck with a U.S. Senator who doesn't represent our values, they ought to at least manipulate the status quo to Texas' advantage.  Cornyn can't even do that.  What purpose does he serve?!?

However imperfectly, voters reward Cruz; disdain Cornyn

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Fascinating nugget in the latest Trib poll:

Cornyn's and Cruz's disapproval ###'s are within the margin of error.  Meanwhile, Cruz's approval number runs 11 points ahead of Cornyn (*).  The difference is the "don't know" category.

There's 34% of the electorate that will disapprove of ANY Republican.  Cornyn and Cruz both deal with that.  Among everybody else, Cruz outpolls Cornyn significantly.

This is a weird observation to make.  We've discussed the many mistakes we believe Cruz has made.  Yet, for all that, the basic pattern of 2013/14 seems to hold.

Bottom Line: Cruz has his flaws.  That's obvious to everyone.  That being said, at least he tries.  Last week's Trib poll illustrates that voters appreciate the effort.
-------

* -- Even if you give Cornyn every benefit of the doubt on margin of error, and Cruz none, in a worst case scenario Cruz is still +5 on approval rating over Cornyn.

#TXLEGE, #TXSEN: Fallon BETTER Have Gotten Something

"The end of a thing is better than its beginning;
The patient in spirit is better than the proud in spirit."
Ecclesiastes 7:8

Wimp:

State Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper, has decided against a primary challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

Fallon revealed the decision Thursday, about a month after he announced at a North Texas Tea Party meeting that he was exploring a run.

"Susan and I wanted to share that I will NOT be a candidate for US Senate in 2020," Fallon said in a statement to friends first shared with The Texas Tribune. "This was a difficult decision as I was personally looking forward to reaching ... thousands of fellow Texans and visiting with them, asking them what their thoughts, concerns and ideas are for our state and our country."

Fallon cited concerns about being away from his family — he has two young sons — as well as the $6 million price tag that he estimated would be the "bare minimum to be competitive for the GOP nomination."

This shouldn't surprise anyone.  Historically, Fallon has talked a bigger game than he's delivered.  There's a reason why we greeted Fallon's original announcement with the word "if."

Several sources have suggested that Fallon was "horse trading."  He made a political threat to get something in return.  It's a plausible hypothesis.

We certainly hope that's the case, because the alternative is too depressing.

Would it surprise anyone if Fallon was just...talking sh...running his mouth?!?  Politicians tend to be cowards.  Furthermore, unlike the "horse trading" hypothesis, the "talking out of his rear end" hypothesis is consistent with the level of political savvy Texas legislators usually demonstrate.

Bottom Line:  Keep an eye on Fallon's committee assignments and which low number bills he carries next session.  Hopefully, this gambit will produce something good.  At this point, however, color us skeptical.

Texas quietly rendering Saudi Arabia geopolitically Irrelevant

"He loves righteousness and justice;
The earth is full of the goodness of the Lord."
Psalm 33:5

This website hasn't done foreign policy in a long time, but this story is too good to ignore:

Half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production was torched over the weekend thanks to a drone strike.

It remains in question as to who is responsible for the attack — Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, but U.S. intelligence is reported to believe Iran is ultimately behind it (and the President indicated this on Twitter, too).

Nevertheless, roughly 5.7 million barrels per day of oil are out of commission.

Had this happened a decade ago, the world might have spun into a frenzy. But after a Monday morning cost-per-barrel spike of 14 percent — which is largely being chalked up to uncertainty — prices dropped almost four percent.

Todd Staples, President of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, told The Texan, “Events like this are certainly meaningful and impactful but the good news for consumers is that hopefully the impact on price will be moderated somewhat, and that is largely due to the resurgence of the American energy industry.”

Saudi Arabia is responsible for roughly 12 percent of worldwide oil production. With half of that temporarily gone (Saudi Arabia said after the attack full production levels would return in two to three weeks time), America (18 percent) and Russia (11 percent) are the only producers remaining above five percent of worldwide production.

So why did this significant hit to worldwide oil production not result in a worldwide panic? Well, Texas likely has a lot to do with it.

“Without the vast supplies that the State of Texas has provided to energy consumers, it’s wild to think about the largest attack and disruption on [oil supply] in history — and yet the price impact has been pretty marginal,” Nick Loris, an energy and environmental economist with the Heritage Foundation told The Texan.

Put differently, innovation is changing geopolitical reality.

This is unambiguously good.

-------

To be honest, the West Texas energy renaissance is the only reason to maintain Republican control of government (both state and federal).

For all of their other flaws, the GOP generally has the good sense to leave the energy industry alone.  Yesterday's news is the result.  Meanwhile, Democrats want to restore Saudi dominance.

On most issues, the difference between the parties is one of degree rather than kind.  Not energy development (with its geopolitical implications).  O
n energy, there really is a difference.

The GOP ought to tell that story.

-------

To be fair, both John Cornyn and Glenn Hegar were quoted in the Texan article cited above.

It's a start.

They ought to do a lot more.

Because this is the only unambiguously good aspect of the GOP's record.

-------

Bottom Line: We could use a lot more stories like these.

#TXLEGE, #TXSEN: Royce West, Borris Miles, and a test of oppo research

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Note: Just for fun, imagine the reaction if any Republican candidate in a similar situation had secured an endorsement from Charles Schwertner.] 

Texas Tribune, Thursday:

[Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Royce] West has suggested he is optimistic that he can be more than just a Dallas-centric candidate by tapping into his legislative relationships throughout the state. He wasted little time proving that after his announcement as he earned endorsements from state Sens. Carol Alvarado and Borris Miles, both from Houston. And state Sens. Jose Menendez of San Antonio and Jose Rodriguez of El Paso attended the announcement itself.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

We remarked shortly thereafter:



It's now been two full days, and nobody has commented.

In case you've forgotten why an endorsement from Borris frickin' Miles might be considered a big deal:

Lauren*, a Texas legislative intern, was standing underneath the bright blue-and-red neon sign of The Continental Club, a famed Austin bar frequented by schmoozing politicians, lobbyists, and reporters.

That week in May 2013 was filled to the brim with end-of-session (“sine die”) parties, and Lauren was with a group of other interns on South Congress when Democratic state Rep. Borris Miles pulled up.

According to Lauren, Miles leaned out of the carriage he was riding in and pulled out a large roll of money. He handed “maybe $500” to an intern and then looked at Lauren.

“You know how you have the roll of hundreds that you see on TV? It was like that,” Lauren told The Daily Beast.

“I said, ‘Hi Representative, how are you?’ Then he slowly looked me up and down, counted out more money, reached out his hand and said, ‘Bitch, you want to fuck with me tonight?’

“I said ‘No, thank you’ and physically stepped back,” Lauren recalled. “I didn’t want to be rude to him. I remember his intern pacifying him and saying, ‘It’s time to go.’

“Everyone was just shocked that he said that—that he cussed at me and that he was offering me money. It was outrageous,” she continued. “I just remember thinking, ‘I need to go, and I need to not be here anymore.’”

And this:

One time, Chris said, he “witnessed [Miles] catcalling women in Downtown Austin on the way back from a Spurs game, and there had to have been at least 15 or 16 other members that were there because it was a member event.”

The Spurs had played the Lakers that April, and the lawmakers went together to San Antonio to watch one of the games. “As we’re driving back towards the W, he’s hanging out of the open door of the bus and shouting at women,” said Chris.

Chris could not recall the catcalls specifically but said, “It was not something that I would want shouted at anyone.”

Chris’ chief of staff confirmed to The Daily Beast that he heard about the alleged catcalling the next morning.

And this:

Ben*, a former staffer who recently worked in the Capitol and “spent a lot of time with Miles,” said he witnessed the then-state representative “forcibly kiss” at least one woman at the W Hotel.

“He offered to buy her a drink, kept trying to kiss her, and she kept trying to push him away,” said Ben. “He kept laughing about it.

“It was so creepy, and he had this big smile,” said Ben. “Borris loves the W Hotel, and he has a tendency to force himself upon women at bars and kiss them or grope them. He’ll tell them that he is a higher elected official than he actually is.”

....

“He also has a tendency to call women out of their name when they turn him down,” he said. “‘Bitch,’ ‘ho,’ ‘whore.’ He doesn’t like being told ‘no.’

And this:

When Heather* first covered the Texas Legislature as a journalist in 2011, she was repeatedly targeted by Miles, she told The Daily Beast in a story published last month.

Late one night when the legislature was in session, Heather was reporting on HB 400, which would have scrapped Texas’ law mandating class size ratio. Miles famously used a point of order to defeat the bill, landing him the title of Star of the 2011 Legislative Session by the Texas Classroom Teachers Association.

Heather said she had been trying to get details about the bill negotiations, when that night, around midnight, Miles cornered her in a hallway and forcibly kissed her outside the House chamber.

“It happened quickly,” Heather said, noting that Miles laughed afterward. “I think he thought it was hilarious.”

“He’d said several times already, ‘If you go out to dinner with me, I’d be happy to give you the details,’ and I’d sort of laugh it off but it was weird and obviously gross.”

You can read the full report here.

So, yeah, that guy made an endorsement in the current U.S. Senate race.

Yet neither MJ Hegar nor John Cornyn seem to care.

Odd.

Obviously, this is a longstanding beef for this author.

Last election cycle, we discovered that Beto O'Rourke likewise did a campaign event with Borris Miles.  In addition to writing a blog post, we also passed that information along to both the Cruz campaign and the RPT chairman.  Unfortunately, neither did anything with that information.

This time around, the difference is that this author doesn't particularly care who wins the U.S. Senate race.  So we're not going to tell any campaigns.  But we mentioned them by name, so they'll get the Google alerts.

Bottom Line: Any campaign that allows an opponent to get away with touting an endorsement from someone with Borris Miles' "alleged" record is completely incompetent and deserves to lose....

Cornyn's Actions Continue to Undermine Cornyn's Own Case for Cornyn's re-election

"My little children, let us not love in word or in tongue, but in deed and in truth."
1 John 3:18

Via Powerline:

Politico reports that President Trump and Senate Republicans “are moving quickly to back up beleaguered Labor Secretary Alex Acosta.” They are doing so in the face of “rising pressure. . .from other corners of the White House, with acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney privately urging the president to dismiss him.”

Unlike Trump and Senate Republicans, Mulvaney has direct knowledge of Acosta’s performance at the Labor Department. He knows that Acosta stalled the implementation of important deregulatory initiatives and, through his agent, lied to him about the reason for the delay.

Mulvaney also understands, as everyone with an ounce of sense does, that Acosta is a political liability because of the sweetheart deal he made with serial pedophile Jeffrey Epstein — a deal that a federal judge says violated the law because it failed to provide notice to Epstein’s victims.

Yet Sen. John Cornyn intones, “I would point out that nothing new has come out, and we ought to reserve judgment until any new information is revealed.”

What new information does Cornyn need? We know the plea deal was scandalously lenient. We know it was reached between Acosta and a former colleague (and Washington power player) at a remote location, instead of at the U.S. Attorney’s office where plea deals are always negotiated. We know the deal has been adjudged illegal.

What is Sen. Cornyn’s standard of conduct? Is he waiting to see whether Acosta was bribed? He wasn’t. He was seduced by a Washington power player — the kind of guy who could help him down the road become a Cabinet member and/or a judge.

[Note: The full Politico story is insane.]

Wow.

There's a lot you could say about this in the context of national politics.  There's a lot you could say about this in the context of the Epststein case [Note: That we even have to type that sentence].  But let's limit the discussion to the context of John Cornyn's re-election campaign.

John Cornyn makes two claims while campaigning:

1. John Cornyn supports Trump.
   
2. John Cornyn is good for the national economy.

Cornyn's actions belie both.  It doesn't take a genius to see how Cornyn's undermining the President.  As for the national economy...does anyone seriously believe Labor Unions are good for it?!?

That this is all being done to the benefit of an apparent deep state operative with ties to Jeffrey Epstein is just the icing on the cake.

Credibility, eventually, dries up.  We have no idea of the timing.  It may or may not be during the current election cycle.

But it's inevitable.

Bottom Line: We have no idea how the current election cycle plays out, but anyone who thinks this nonsense is sustainable much longer is kidding themselves.

Cornyn's poll ##'s suck

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Yowza:

2020 Texas Senate GE:
John Cornyn (R-inc) 29%
M.J. Hegar (D) 12%
Someone else 16%
Unsure 44%@EmersonPolling 4/25-28https://t.co/eln98hcWPX #TXsen

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) April 30, 2019

Observations:

• That 16% for "someone else" are the people who would typically vote Republican, but won't vote for Cornyn.

• For a three term incumbent to be at 44% "Unsure" suggests...a lot of room to fall.

But, hey, at least John Cornyn wants to protect us from the scourge of C-list actors with potty mouths.

Bottom Line There really ought to be a conversation about John Cornyn's general election viability before it's too late....

The Fuddiest of Duddies

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

[Personal Note: We're travelling out of state this weekend; Cahnman's Musings will resume publishing on Tuesday.]

We've already said our piece about M.J. Hegar getting into the U.S. Senate race but, of course, John Cornyn has to make the situation worse:

Hollywood Hegar supporter and video guest star, Patton Oswalt, has tweeted some offensive comments over the years, reply A or B to let us know which one is more offensive to you: pic.twitter.com/gXgPvstK6V

— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) April 23, 2019

This is pathetic.

Seriously, of all the reasons to not vote for a Democrat, the best you could come up with is that she's friends with some Hollywood C-lister with an affinity for adult language?!?

Seriously?!?

It gets better:

First, it was @PattonOswalt, now it’s @Rosie. There’s a profane trend among #HollywoodHegar’s biggest backers, and they’re all taking aim at @RealDonaldTrump and our conservative values. pic.twitter.com/ILyodLgVhJ

— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) April 24, 2019

Oooh. Big John wants to pick a fight with Rosie O'Donell!!! He must be a real tough guy!!!

The whole "Team Cornyn" twitter feed is a hot mess of embarrassingly bad faux offense; you can see it for yourself here.

It's not often that we cite Twitter randos, but it's hard to beat this:

absolutely losing my mind imagining one of cornyn’s 23 y/o interns being forced to search through patton’s tweets for naughty words then censoring them with emojis so their boss’ fanbase of aging segregationists don’t make a mess in their adult diapers https://t.co/LgJWypuUYJ

— waterslide enthusiast (@KrangTNelson) April 23, 2019

This plays into every stereotype about Republicans.

But it's even funnier to hear John Cornyn complain about grown up language when you consider this:

But John Cornyn is totes offended by a few PG-13 comments.

Bottom Line: There are reasons to hold your nose and vote for Cornyn, but if this is the type of campaign he intends to run, those reasons aren't strong enough.

Why TF is John Cornyn quoting Mussolini?!?

"If a ruler pays attention to lies,
All his servants become wicked."
Proverbs 29:12

Ummm, so this happened:

Huh?!?

In fairness to Cornyn, he later offered a lame rationalization:

Horse manure.  Cornyn never offered any of that context.  At best, the quote was embarrassingly reckless.  Otherwise, it was a Freudian slip from the guy who supported the 2008 TARP bailout.

Bottom Line: If John Cornyn's longstanding comfort with collusion between big business and big government didn't already make you nervous, yesterday's news didn't help....

Did Cornyn just, unintentionally, open up a new lane for a primary?!?

"Let nothing be done through selfish ambition or conceit, but in lowliness of mind let each esteem others better than himself."
Philippians 2:3

On Monday, the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram ran a hatchet job story about how Texas' federal officials are reacting to the state level lawsuit against Obamacare.

From John Cornyn:

“People ought to just take a deep breath and see what the Supreme Court does, maybe in a couple years from now,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the second-ranking Senate Republican. He’s up for re-election in 2020.

In other words, John Cornyn wants to do ** LITERALLY NOTHING** to address health care until some vaguely defined point in the future.

How typically Cornyn.

Of course, whatever baggage exists from the health care fights of the past decade, none of it changes the fact that health care remains one of the biggest economic/social policy challenges we face.

Sure would be nice if our elected officials would address it.

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That being said, Cornyn's admission he's comfortable with the status quo creates an opportunity.

If a credible candidate were to challenge Cornyn on a platform of fixing the health care system...it just might work.

Such a campaign would be forward looking.  It wouldn't be about punishing the mistakes of the past.  It would be about seizing the opportunities of the next decade.

Such a campaign also wouldn't, really, be about Cornyn.  It would be about fixing one of the biggest economic challenges Texans face.  To the extent Cornyn was discussed, it would be more in sorrow than in anger.

The temptation is to go after Cornyn as a traitorous RINO.  That's because it's true.  But that sort of messaging has a ceiling, and that sort of campaign would be doomed to failure.

Earlier this month, we splashed cold water on the idea of a Cornyn challenge.  But that's a Cornyn challenge in the context of the preceding paragraph.  What we're talking about now is different.

A disciplined, forward looking, campaign to fix the health care system might just work.

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It should be noted that we don't have a clue who to run as a candidate.

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Bottom Line: Based on his comment Monday, Cornyn clearly isn't interested in moving the ball forward on health care.  But the public still cares about that issue...a lot.  If a credible candidate were to credibly address the issue, it just might work.

Patrick, once again, makes poorly informed media speculation look foolish

"with all lowliness and gentleness, with longsuffering, bearing with one another in love,"
Ephesians 4:2

Like it or not, this is reality:

PR 18 12 11 by on Scribd

Patrick's endorsement comes on the heels of a report in an Austin lobby publication speculating he was about to run.  Of course, for anyone reasonably plugged in, neither of these developments should come as a surprise.  It's an open secret that people are trying to recruit Patrick into this race.  It's also not a secret that Patrick has been pouring cold water on those attempts for a year.  Today's announcement makes it official.

The funniest part about this development, however, is that it's the second time in as many years that Patrick has had to shoot down baseless speculation that he was going to run for another office.  In neither case was Patrick doing any work to set up such a campaign.  NEWSFLASH: Dan Patrick likes being Lieutenant Governor.

It's also worth noting that Texas' state and federal officials have been singing kumbaya since Hurricane Harvey.

As for a Cornyn challenge: Find a credible candidate.  Not that guy you like on Facebook who's lost primaries for both the Texas and U.S. house.  A credible candidate.  (Hint: Nobody credible will run this cycle because of this guy.)

Bottom Line: Today's announcement shouldn't surprise anyone who has the slightest clue....