#TXLEGE: "Lone Star Agenda" a good start

"So teach us to number our days,
That we may gain a heart of wisdom."
Psalm 90:12

We were not part of the drafting of this agenda.  But we were asked to sign on.  We have done so:

Lone Star Agenda by Cahnman on Scribd

Most of these are pretty self explanatory.

Our four major unresolved issues from the legislative session are all on the list:

• Taxpayer funded lobbying

• Union dues

• Municipal Employment Ordinances

• Election integrity

As for the mental health and parental rights stuff: Due to bandwidth issues, we might not discuss those issues frequently, but we're fully on board with coalition efforts.

One interesting note: We're not going to throw shade, by we find it interesting that none of the issues we feel have been mishandled in recent years made the list.

Bottom Line: In a Republican majority legislature, none of this should be controversial....

#atxcouncil: Following ban on Short-Term Rentals (and #TXLEGE preemption failures), black market predictably develops....

"I will cut off sorceries from your hand,
And you shall have no soothsayers."
Micah 5:12

In the least surprising news story ever:

In the City of Austin, more than 10,000 Austin properties advertise themselves as short-term rentals, a new city memo notes. But only 2,500 of those are licensed and paying fees to the city. A number of the unlicensed rentals have been the subject of repeated complaints and violations.

In a memo to the City Council, the Austin Code Department director estimated it will take 35,568 staff hours for license administration and enforcement on short-term rentals in the city by the end of the year. About 5% of staff time is spent on enforcement of the properties that are highlighted by the city as repeat offenders when it comes to breaking Austin’s rules for short-term rentals.

“The department projects that an additional 200 properties will be licensed this year, raising the total number of licensed properties to 2,700—a 59% increase in the number properties licensed over the last two fiscal years. If the total number of STR operations across the City is in fact 10,000+, licensed properties by year end will only represent 27%,” the report said.

....

The city memo came after Mayor Pro Tem Kathy Tovo brought a resolution last November asking the Austin Code Department to quantify how much time enforcing short-term rentals is taking and whether the city needs to do more to hold problem property owners accountable.

Who'd'a ever seen this coming?!?

Bottom Line:   When you "ban" something, it doesn't actually stop the activity. It just drives it underground. Shocking, we know....

Davis continues repeating mistakes from last campaign

"Lest you ponder her path of life—
Her ways are unstable;
You do not know them."
Proverbs 5:6

She makes it official:



From a personal perspective, here's what's amazing: We just, two days ago, wrote a blog post about Wendy Davis repeating the mistakes from her last campaign...and she's doing it again!!!

In the video, Davis discusses her family (especially her father) extensively.  She discusses (her version of) her story.  What's missing, however, is any substantive discussion of public affairs or any compelling reason for her candidacy.

When she ran for Governor in 2014, Wendy Davis tried to make her biography one of her primary selling points...and it blew up in her face.

You'd think she'd learn.

Bottom Line: Wendy Davis' primary political problem will always be that her views on public policy are not aligned with the constituents she seeks to represent.  Fair or unfair, however, she also comes across as entitled.  Today's announcement video will help cement that perception.  If Wendy Davis uses the same playbook to run her congressional campaign that she used in her race for governor, she should expect the same result....

Davis already repeating mistakes from last campaign

"Lest you ponder her path of life—
Her ways are unstable;
You do not know them."
Proverbs 5:6

We first started hearing that Wendy Davis might run for Chip Roy's Congressional seat in January.

Almost two months ago, there was another boomlet of "will she or won't she?" speculation.

She didn't pull the trigger either time.

Now, national political operatives linked to Nancy Pelosi are leaking that...this time...Wendy Davis is totally, totally, TOTALLY going to run!!!

She might.  She might not.  Regardless of her final decision, however, she's already squandered the first six months of any potential campaign.  If Davis does choose to run, she's already waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind the 8-ball.

She's done this before.  In 2013, Wendy Davis' infamous filibuster was in June.  She didn't announce her campaign for Governor, however, until October.  Whatever initial momentum she may have had was squandered through indecision.

Bottom Line: This isn't the first time we've seen an extended Hamlet act from this particular individual....

Texas by the Numbers

"For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it—"
Luke 14:28

If you want to understand the data behind the current state of play in Texas, then this episode of the Luke Macias show is a must listen.  Luke interviews Derek Ryan, of Ryan Data and Research, a former RPT data analyst who is widely respected across the political spectrum.  We'll post the interview and our notes below.

Before we do, however, we need to point something out: Derek Ryan's data backs up three points we've been making for awhile.

Specifically:

1. Glenn Hegar as a proxy for generic Republican vote -- Following the 2018 election, we calculated the "Trump effect" by comparing Glenn Hegar's 2018 result to his 2014 result.  We came up with a five point shift to the Democrats.  Ryan's, meanwhile, did a detailed statistical analysis that shows a four point shift to the Democrats.  Obviously, his analysis is far more complete than ours, but ours was a lot less work.  Both point to a mid-single digit sized shift.
   
2. Underperformance in Urban Areas has statewide consequences -- Apparently, there are over 500,000 Republican Primary voters who didn't vote in the 2018 general election.  When asked about the geographic distribution of these voters, Ryan specifically mentioned Travis, Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties.  It's almost like we wrote about that last week, or something....
   
3. The utter, total, and complete incompetence of the Hays County GOP -- Ryan tells a story that's absolutely bonkers.
   
   According to Ryan, now state representative Erin Zweiner once allegedly wrote a blog post where she claimed responsibility for low-level acts of ecoterrorism in Western Travis County.  Furthermore, apparently, Ryan discovered this well before last year's election.  Ryan uses this as an example of how national events overwhelmed down ballot races, but we have a different hypothesis.
   
   What if the Hays GOP is incompetent?!?
   This author consumes a large amount of political news.  Furthermore, as a blogger, we're always on the lookout for local stories that are undercovered.  Yet the first time we hear this story is on a podcast almost a year after the election.
   
   We don't necessarily cover everything he hear.  However, between formal and informal sources, we usually have a good idea about major activity.  Yet this (alleged) factoid slipped not only this author's radar, but local activists' as well.
   
   That is a failure across all levels of the party.
   
   Of course, we specifically highlighted the Hays GOP's failures in our analysis of the 2018 debacle.

You can hear the full podcast below:

Highlights:

• Serious discussion of political data begins at the 10 minute mark.

• Generic R votes has gone down by approximately four points under Trump.

• Suburbs are "changing significantly."
• Collin - 7.7% shift to D's
• Denton - 6.6%
• WillCo - 5.7%

• 2018 had higher under 20 turnout than 2016.

• In 2018, lots of people voted "that we didn't already know."

• 548,000 Republican primary voters didn't vote in November.

• "2018 was kind of a perfect storm for the Democrats."

• THE LEVEL OF GOP INCOMPETENCE IN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE'RE HEARING ABOUT THIS ERIN ZWEINER ECO-TERRORIST STORY IS ASTOUNDING.

• Voter registration ahead of 2016 pace.

• 17 state rep district GOP < 55% in 2018.
• D's are registering like crazy in those areas.

Burton and the Texan team are clearly doing something right

"saying, “Let us alone! What have we to do with You, Jesus of Nazareth? Did You come to destroy us? I know who You are—the Holy One of God!”
Luke 4:34

It's now been a few months since Konni Burton launched the Texan.  Obviously, we're glad she's doing this and we're glad The Texan exists.  More voices, not fewer, and all that.

If readers will allow us a confession, however, the truth is that we haven't been paying close attention.

Until yesterday:

IN 2015, ON THE OPENING DAY of the 84th Texas Legislature, newly elected Republican Konni Burton, a former Tea Party leader, stepped onto the Senate floor wearing a pair of black cowboy boots with the words “Stand for Life” inscribed on them. The sartorial choice signaled that Burton would be the polar opposite of her predecessor Wendy Davis, the Texas Democrat who made national headlines for her 13-hour filibuster against an abortion bill, which she delivered wearing pink running shoes.

Last November, as a blue wave swept Texas, Burton lost her seat—in an area previously considered to be among the country’s most conservative—to a Democrat. She has since turned her attentions to journalism, which she feels does not respect the beliefs of hardcore conservatives. She has started a new digital media outlet called The Texan—which, she says, without recognizing any contradiction, is both right-wing and unbiased.

....

The outlet will always use “pro-life” instead of “anti-abortion,” White says. (The site Texas Right to Life praised the launch of The Texan.) They also use the term “illegal alien,” which is no longer in wide usage because it is seen as both pejorative and inaccurate, because Burton rejects the word “migrant.” Headlines speak of “religious liberty.”

The Texan focuses on state-level politics, and currently publishes about a dozen stories a week. Reporters there have recently framed a House bill to protect Dreamers as “granting citizenship to illegal aliens.” (The story cites NumbersUSA, a known anti-immigrant group which the Southern Poverty Law Center identified as nativist.) There’s also an exclusive on the website with state representative Ron Wright, who made national headlines after a video by an abortion rights group showed him saying women should be punished for having an abortion.

The full piece is snarky and derisive. That's to be expected. What's noteworthy, however, is that it's being written at all.

[Note: If you're looking for a good laugh, contrast what the Columbia Journalism Review said about the Texas with what they said about the Texas Tribune when it launched.]

Somebody's scared.

So, yeah, good deal on Konni Burton and the staff of the Texan!!!

Bottom Line: Sometime the reaction to something tells you more than the original thing it self.  Clearly, this is one of those times.  Kudos.

Marchant and Olson are LOSERS and the GOP should Break Up with Them BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Hoo boy:

Two potentially vulnerable Texas Republicans in Congress were outraised — and a few others saw seriously funded challengers — as the first major fundraising deadline passed in a cycle where national Democrats have built an expansive battlefield here, targeting six seats.

In the second quarter, Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land, fell short of Democratic challenger Sri Preston Kulkarni, $378,000 to $421,000. Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell, raised less than Democratic opponent Kim Olson, $225,000 to $279,000, before making a large loan to his campaign.

Not good.

This combination of energized opponents and lethargic incumbents sounds...a lot like two congressional seats the GOP lost in 2018.

In March, we wrote a long piece examining Congressional races.  In that piece, we crunched a bunch of numbers related to 2018 election results.  The relevant section is too long to quote in full, but the TL,DR version is that lazy incumbents with a bad record and a sense of entitlement should be avoided like the plague.

Meanwhile, Republicans held EVERY.  SINGLE.  OPEN.  SEAT.

Finally, as we said last year about a certain now-former congressman:

Pete Sessions is a liability that should have been dealt with YEARS ago

That liability was never addressed. Eventually, the Democrats had a good enough year that Sessions lost. Given yesterday's news, Kenny Marchant and Pete Olson are officially liabilities.

The good news: Filing deadline is still five months away.

The bad news: Everybody's whistling past the graveyard.

Bottom Line: Lazy incumbents with a bad record and a sense of entitlement are TERRIBLE general election candidates.  There's still time to avoid that fate.  If these two incumbents retain the party nomination, however, don't be surprised when they lose.