#TXLEGE: The Budget Outlook Remains Pretty Brutal

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."
Ezekiel 14:13

Hoo boy:

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar delivered bleak but unsurprising news Monday: Because of the economic fallout triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the amount of general revenue available for the state’s current two-year budget is projected to be roughly $11.5 billion less than originally estimated. That puts the state on track to end the biennium, which runs through August 2021, with a deficit of nearly $4.6 billion, Hegar said.

Those figures are a significant downward revision from Hegar’s last revenue estimate in October 2019, when the comptroller said the state would have over $121 billion to spend on its current budget and end the biennium with a surplus of nearly $2.9 billion. The state, Hegar said, will now have roughly $110 billion to work with for the current budget.

Hegar’s latest estimate, he stressed in a letter to Gov. Greg Abbott and other state leaders, carries “an unprecedented amount of uncertainty” and could change drastically in the coming months, thanks to the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, a recent drop in oil prices.

“We have had to make assumptions about the economic impact of COVID-19, the duration and effects of which remain largely unknown,” Hegar wrote. “Our forecast assumes restrictions [on businesses and people] will be lifted before the end of this calendar year, but that economic activity will not return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this biennium.”

Keep in mind:

• This is just the current two-year budget cycle, the numbers are even worse for the next cycle (although, to be fair, there are several years for the economy to recover in the interim).

• This doesn't account for the way they have to backfill the regular Medicaid shortfall.

Bottom Line: Next session is going to be miserable for the powers that be (the silver lining, of course, is that they deserve it).

Budget Hole Grows Deeper

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."

Ezekiel 14:13

Yowza:

It’s the beginning of another month, which as of late has meant another report from the comptroller’s office showing a decline in sales tax collection in Texas compared to last year.

On Tuesday, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said state sales tax revenue totaled $2.67 billion in June, 6.5 percent less than in June 2019.

Sales taxes remitted to the state in June consist mostly of taxes collected by businesses in May.

“The decline in state sales tax collections was driven principally by steep drops in remittances from oil- and gas-related sectors,” said Hegar. “Collections from the construction and amusement service sectors were also sharply down.”

The state’s sales tax is the biggest source of revenue for the state government—accounting for more than 57 percent of Texas’ total tax collections.

Bottom Line: Budget cuts, they are a-comin'!!!!

Texas Sales Tax Revenue Down ALMOST 10%

"Son of man, when a land sins against Me by persistent unfaithfulness, I will stretch out My hand against it; I will cut off its supply of bread, send famine on it, and cut off man and beast from it."
Ezekiel 14:13

HOLY SHI[well, you know]:

Just in: @Glenn_Hegar announces state sales tax revenue totaled $2.58B in April — 9.3% less than April 2019.

Hegar's office says it's the steepest decline since January 2010. #txlege pic.twitter.com/EvrzffXKp3

— Cassi Pollock (@cassi_pollock) May 1, 2020

Wow, that's bad.

Obviously, this website doesn't really care about government revenue. We generally support government having less money. Wasteful spending and all that.

Unfortunately, sales tax revenue is a pretty good proxy for total economic activity.  A 9.3% drop is bad.  Really bad.

There's no easy way out of this.  At a minimum, we need to return decision making to businesses, families, and individuals.  Blunt government force will only make a bad situation worse.  Also, having lobbyists pick winners and losers probably isn't a good way to manage this alleged "re-opening" process.

Bottom Line: Buckle up....

Hegar Correctly Confronts Obscure Corporate Welfare Loophole

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Oh wow:

The suits were assembled for a public hearing about city governments that pay businesses to locate in their cities — by effectively refunding sales taxes those companies have collected from their internet customers.

Those refunds go not to the customers who paid them, but to the companies that collected them for the state.

Some cities and businesses have figured out how to exploit the system — legally — by directing all of their internet sales to one locality and levying the sales taxes there, regardless of whether their customers are in El Paso or Texarkana. It also doesn’t matter where an item that's purchased online is picked up or delivered. So if someone in Texas buys a computer online from Dell, the sales taxes go to the city of Round Rock. If you purchase a refrigerator from Best Buy’s website, the city of San Marcos might be getting the local sales tax. And if you live in El Paso, buy a table saw online from Home Depot and pick it up at your local store, the tax could be collected 570 miles away in New Braunfels.

To attract that kind of revenue, the cities and companies take advantage of a state law that allows the cities to pay some of the sales taxes back to the company collecting them. For instance, the contract between San Marcos and Best Buy returns up to 75% of the local sales tax that the company collects from its online sales. That’s part of the local tax package that San Marcos used to attract and keep the company and fewer than 100 jobs at its operations center in the city.

....

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar wants to change the tax rules in a way that would upend some of those economic development deals. His proposal says sales taxes should go to the purchaser’s city instead of the city where the seller says its online sales are made.

Bottom Line: Sales tax "refunds" are one of the more obnoxious acts of petty larceny local governments inflict upon their citizens; good for Hegar.

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Note: Hegar wrote a DMN op-ed on this subject a couple days ago.  It explains this subject in more detail.  We strongly recommend reading the whole thing.

Texas quietly rendering Saudi Arabia geopolitically Irrelevant

"He loves righteousness and justice;
The earth is full of the goodness of the Lord."
Psalm 33:5

This website hasn't done foreign policy in a long time, but this story is too good to ignore:

Half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production was torched over the weekend thanks to a drone strike.

It remains in question as to who is responsible for the attack — Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, but U.S. intelligence is reported to believe Iran is ultimately behind it (and the President indicated this on Twitter, too).

Nevertheless, roughly 5.7 million barrels per day of oil are out of commission.

Had this happened a decade ago, the world might have spun into a frenzy. But after a Monday morning cost-per-barrel spike of 14 percent — which is largely being chalked up to uncertainty — prices dropped almost four percent.

Todd Staples, President of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, told The Texan, “Events like this are certainly meaningful and impactful but the good news for consumers is that hopefully the impact on price will be moderated somewhat, and that is largely due to the resurgence of the American energy industry.”

Saudi Arabia is responsible for roughly 12 percent of worldwide oil production. With half of that temporarily gone (Saudi Arabia said after the attack full production levels would return in two to three weeks time), America (18 percent) and Russia (11 percent) are the only producers remaining above five percent of worldwide production.

So why did this significant hit to worldwide oil production not result in a worldwide panic? Well, Texas likely has a lot to do with it.

“Without the vast supplies that the State of Texas has provided to energy consumers, it’s wild to think about the largest attack and disruption on [oil supply] in history — and yet the price impact has been pretty marginal,” Nick Loris, an energy and environmental economist with the Heritage Foundation told The Texan.

Put differently, innovation is changing geopolitical reality.

This is unambiguously good.

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To be honest, the West Texas energy renaissance is the only reason to maintain Republican control of government (both state and federal).

For all of their other flaws, the GOP generally has the good sense to leave the energy industry alone.  Yesterday's news is the result.  Meanwhile, Democrats want to restore Saudi dominance.

On most issues, the difference between the parties is one of degree rather than kind.  Not energy development (with its geopolitical implications).  O
n energy, there really is a difference.

The GOP ought to tell that story.

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To be fair, both John Cornyn and Glenn Hegar were quoted in the Texan article cited above.

It's a start.

They ought to do a lot more.

Because this is the only unambiguously good aspect of the GOP's record.

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Bottom Line: We could use a lot more stories like these.

Texas by the Numbers

"For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it—"
Luke 14:28

If you want to understand the data behind the current state of play in Texas, then this episode of the Luke Macias show is a must listen.  Luke interviews Derek Ryan, of Ryan Data and Research, a former RPT data analyst who is widely respected across the political spectrum.  We'll post the interview and our notes below.

Before we do, however, we need to point something out: Derek Ryan's data backs up three points we've been making for awhile.

Specifically:

1. Glenn Hegar as a proxy for generic Republican vote -- Following the 2018 election, we calculated the "Trump effect" by comparing Glenn Hegar's 2018 result to his 2014 result.  We came up with a five point shift to the Democrats.  Ryan's, meanwhile, did a detailed statistical analysis that shows a four point shift to the Democrats.  Obviously, his analysis is far more complete than ours, but ours was a lot less work.  Both point to a mid-single digit sized shift.
   
2. Underperformance in Urban Areas has statewide consequences -- Apparently, there are over 500,000 Republican Primary voters who didn't vote in the 2018 general election.  When asked about the geographic distribution of these voters, Ryan specifically mentioned Travis, Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties.  It's almost like we wrote about that last week, or something....
   
3. The utter, total, and complete incompetence of the Hays County GOP -- Ryan tells a story that's absolutely bonkers.
   
   According to Ryan, now state representative Erin Zweiner once allegedly wrote a blog post where she claimed responsibility for low-level acts of ecoterrorism in Western Travis County.  Furthermore, apparently, Ryan discovered this well before last year's election.  Ryan uses this as an example of how national events overwhelmed down ballot races, but we have a different hypothesis.
   
   What if the Hays GOP is incompetent?!?
   This author consumes a large amount of political news.  Furthermore, as a blogger, we're always on the lookout for local stories that are undercovered.  Yet the first time we hear this story is on a podcast almost a year after the election.
   
   We don't necessarily cover everything he hear.  However, between formal and informal sources, we usually have a good idea about major activity.  Yet this (alleged) factoid slipped not only this author's radar, but local activists' as well.
   
   That is a failure across all levels of the party.
   
   Of course, we specifically highlighted the Hays GOP's failures in our analysis of the 2018 debacle.

You can hear the full podcast below:

Highlights:

• Serious discussion of political data begins at the 10 minute mark.

• Generic R votes has gone down by approximately four points under Trump.

• Suburbs are "changing significantly."
• Collin - 7.7% shift to D's
• Denton - 6.6%
• WillCo - 5.7%

• 2018 had higher under 20 turnout than 2016.

• In 2018, lots of people voted "that we didn't already know."

• 548,000 Republican primary voters didn't vote in November.

• "2018 was kind of a perfect storm for the Democrats."

• THE LEVEL OF GOP INCOMPETENCE IN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE'RE HEARING ABOUT THIS ERIN ZWEINER ECO-TERRORIST STORY IS ASTOUNDING.

• Voter registration ahead of 2016 pace.

• 17 state rep district GOP < 55% in 2018.
• D's are registering like crazy in those areas.

About Tuesday Night....

"Trust in the Lord with all your heart,
And lean not on your own understanding;"
Proverbs 3:5

Well it's done.

By now, you know the damage: 2 congressional seats, 2 Texas Senate seats, 11/12 Texas house seats.  Dozens of Judicial Races.

We've been analyzing and reflecting for several days, and we're starting to reach some conclusions.

It's impossible to know how much of a role each of these factors played, but together they combined to produce the results described above.

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Before we begin, let's clear up one myth (with two flipsides) that we've seen pop up in the media and in other discussions.

Tuesday's results had nothing to do with whether the GOP was either a) "Too Conservative" or b) "Not conservative enough."

Republicans from all over the ideological spectrum lost.  When Matt Rinaldi and Tony Dale both lose, it ain't ideological.  It might, however, have something to do with the similarities between their districts.

Anyone using Tuesday's results as an excuse to settle scores from the primary should be ignored.

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ANY Republican President:

On Tuesday night, we called Trump "toxic."  Having had several days to research history and talk with sources, we think that statement was a shortsighted exaggeration.  Trump definitely made it worse, but a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president.

Over the past three decades, down ballot races in Texas have tended to go against the party of the president.  This is especially true in the second half of the decade.  This was true in the 90's under Clinton (to the R's benefit).  It was true in the 2000's under both Bush and Obama (first for D's then for R's).  It's been true this decade under Obama and Trump (first for R's then for D's).  The only exception was during Dubya's post 9/11 honeymoon.

A lot of those districts had been blue in the not too distant past.  They only flipped in 2010.  If anything, our biggest mistake was to assume Obama-era partisan splits would continue indefinitely.

On Wednesday morning, Republican data guru Derek Ryan tweeted:

The following are totals for the Texas House.

In 1980, Democrats drew maps. They elected 114 Ds in 1982. By 1988, the total was down to 93.

In 1990, Democrats drew maps. They elected 92 Ds in 1992. By 1998, the total was down to 78.
(2/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

In 2000, Republicans drew maps. They elected 88 Rs in 2002. By 2008, the total was down to 76.

In 2010, Republicans drew maps. They elected 95 Rs in 2012. In 2018, the total is now down to 83.
(3/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

While Ryan was making a separate point about gerrymandering, his data is still consistent with our observation that these races tend to go against the party of the president.

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Trump:

While a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the current Republican president made it worse.

Donald Trump causes a lot more people to vote.  2016 was the all time record for any Texas election.  2018 was the midterm record.  Across the political spectrum, turnout is up.

Here's the problem: While both sides are drawing more voters, this proportionally helps Democrats because they're starting from a lower base.

Consider the case of Glenn Hegar.  Glenn Hegar is probably the closest thing you've got to "generic Republican" on a statewide ballot.  The relationship between the raw vote totals and the percentages in Hegar's two elections is instructive.

2014:

2018:

In 2018, Glenn Hegar got approximately 1.7 million additional votes over his 2014 total.  His 2018 Democrat opponent got approximately 1.8 million additional votes over his 2014 opponent. While those raw vote totals are comparable, because the Democrats are starting from a lower base, that means it benefits them proportionally.

More people are voting on both sides.  But they're voting in a way that proportionally benefits Democrats.  It's worth a five point shift in the generic ballot.

Then there's the unprecedented DEBACLE in the judiciary.

"Before Trump's visit, Cruz's internal numbers had him leading by double digits statewide. In the days after, his lead dropped to 5 points."https://t.co/sqhGVkYjk1

— Aman Batheja (@amanbatheja) November 9, 2018

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Cruz:

While any Republican President would have dug a hole, and this one dug it deeper, Ted Cruz kept digging.  What kind of campaign gets into a two week argument with its top supporters over yard signs?!?

Cruz's biggest problem is baggage from the presidential campaign.  While each move made sense at the time, Cruz has been all over the map as it relates to Trump.  It's hurt him.  Badly.

Cruz's failures deserve their own blog post, but where national/Presidential factors cost the GOP 5 points, Cruz's personal failures cost him an additional 2.5 points in his own race.

It was the type of campaign David Dewhurst might have run.

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Godawful messaging:

Off the top of your head, what was the Texas GOP's message this year?!?

We can come up with two things: Abbott's MS-13 ad and the U.S. Senate's race's detour into the NFL protests; Chris Hooks has a longer list of some of the dumber aspects of this campaign here.

In recent years, the Texas GOP has run intellectually lazy general election campaigns against the boogeyman du jour.  They've stopped making a proactive case for liberty.  It's the old adage: Tell me what your for, not what you're against.

Not very long ago, it wasn't this way.  In 2010, Rick Perry campaigned on the tenth amendment.  In 2012, Cruz campaigned on restoring the federal government to its constitutional role.  In 2014, Abbott campaigned on the sanctity of life and fixing traffic.

In 2018, we got a lot less of that.

Imagine, instead, a world where Abbott spent the final months of the campaign talking about property taxes while Cruz spent the final month talking about health care freedom.

We suspect a lot of down-ballot Republicans wish they had.

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Voter Fraud:

We have no specific knowledge of specific cases.  But only a fool would discount the possibility.  Especially in the close races (look at Florida and Arizona).

As Hugh Hewitt famously wrote: "If it's not close, they can't cheat."

Unfortunately, for the reasons listed above, Republicans let it get close.

Who knows?!?

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Corrupt/Atrophied GOP leadership/infrastructure in Williamson and Hays Counties:

For many years, Republicans in Williamson and Hays counties have been more interested in crony capitalism than conservative governance.

For many years, activists warned the GOP leadership in those respective counties that such a course of action would wipe them out if a Democrat wave emerged.

That happened on Tuesday; especially in Hays.

Both county parties have needed a housecleaning for years.  Now they might get one.
They should both follow Montgomery County's lead.

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O'Rourke:

Given the myriad GOP failures, it's tough to know how much he created for himself.

At a minimum, he recognized the opportunity early and went for it.

There's no denying his fundraising haul was impressive.

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Bottom Line: There are any number of reasons why things went down the way that they did.  We need to address what we can.  But the scary part is how much was beyond our control.

Lessons for the Texas GOP:
1) Trump-like personality/demeanor is detrimental in the suburbs.
2) Failing to campaign on the GOP's natural advantage on pocketbook issues like tax reform in a personable manner is stupid.
3) There is no political campaign Jeff Roe cannot screw up.

— Michael Openshaw (@mopenshaw) November 7, 2018

How We Voted

"Moreover you shall select from all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers of thousands, rulers of hundreds, rulers of fifties, and rulers of tens."
Exodus 18:21

Early this cycle, we made a specific decision to forgo endorsements or direct advocacy on behalf of specific candidates.  This was for a number of reasons.  But, at this point, we suppose we can let the cat out of the bag.

[Note: A couple of these will surprise some folks.  WE ARE NOT INTERESTED IN DISCUSSING THEM.  DO NOT send us Facebook messages.]

• U.S. Senate: Ted Cruz

• Governor: Barbara Kreueger

• Lt. Gov: Dan Patrick

• Atty. Gen: Ken Paxton

• Comptroller: Glenn Hegar

• Land Commissioner: Davey Edwards

• Ag. Commissioner: Trey Blocker

• Railroad Commission: Christi Craddick

• Court of Criminal Appeals: David Bridges, Michelle Slaughter

• 3rd Court of Appeals: Michael Toth

• CD-35: The guy with the beard.

• RPT Ballot propositions: No on 4.  Abstain on 2.  Yes on all the others.

UT about to do something REALLY stupid that could torpedo their relationship with Governor....

"I will punish the world for its evil,
And the wicked for their iniquity;
I will halt the arrogance of the proud,
And will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible."
Isaiah 13:11

Buried in today's Trib story about the Texas Bullion depository, we find this nugget:

Abbott drew national attention in 2015 when he announced that the depository would allow Texas to “repatriate” $1 billion in gold bullion currently being stored in New York. He was referring to gold bullion assets held by the University of Texas Investment Management Company, which oversees the assets of both the University of Texas and Texas A&M systems.

The nonprofit currently has $861.4 million worth of gold bullion in storage at the HSBC Bank in New York City, according to Jenny LaCoste-Caputo, a spokeswoman for the UT system. But UTIMCO officials appear unlikely to move their gold holdings to the state depository. Officials there have previously said the Texas depository would have to be a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX platform, where gold futures contracts are traded. LaCoste-Caputo confirmed Tuesday that that condition still holds.

The new state depository will not be a member of COMEX, according to Matthew Ferris, chairman of Lone Star Tangible Assets. He pointed to geographical limitations as preventing the Texas Bullion Depository from joining.

“Ultimately, our goal is to create liquidity of COMEX levels in the state of Texas for those large institutions over time,” Ferris said.

LaCoste-Caputo also said that gold storage fees UTIMCO pays would have to be cheaper at the Texas depository than it currently pays in New York for the organization to make the switch.

[Author's Note: Emphasis added.]

Soo...they're going to openly defy the Governor over something this big?!?

Are they really that arrogant?!? [Note: Rhetorical question.]

Keep in mind: This is the Governor who has done nothing but protect them during his time in office.  This is the Governor who fast tracked getting Wallace Hall off of the Board of Regents.  And this is how they repay him?!?

And this is after they already attempted to defy him over the Houston land grab.

Bottom Line: If they move forward with this plan, the next round of regent nominations is going to be VERY interesting (*).

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* - We doubt WH would accept a re-nomination to the Board if it were offered, but nominees of a similar philosophical disposition are a realistic possibility.

#TXLEGE: Abbott attempting to weasel out of a special session....

"For nothing is secret that will not be revealed, nor anything hidden that will not be known and come to light."
Luke 8:17

Isn't THIS typical....

Gov. Greg Abbott's announcement on whether he will call a special session is not expected to happen before next week.

On Monday, Abbott said he would share his verdict "later this week." On Friday, his office said he would not make the announcement Friday or over the weekend.

....

Asked Wednesday morning about a special session, Abbott said he was waiting for the budget to be certified and wanted to go through more bills on his desk. Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced Thursday evening he had certified the budget.

Now, we will confess that punting this discussion into next week will allow us to resolve a few personal errands that we'd put off during the session, but this isn't about this author's personal convenience.

Abbott's move is designed to stall in the hope that grassroots attention moves elsewhere, and is thus unacceptable.

Bottom Line: It's not surprising, but it is revealing.

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Governor Greg Abbott: (512) 463-2000

Notes on Texas' various Corporate Welfare programs....

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Over the weekend, we read TPPF's recently released Policymaker's Guide to Corporate Welfare; we offer some notes on things we found interesting, but we recommend reading the whole thing yourself.

TPPF divides corporate welfare into three areas:

• State Subsidies -- Direct payments from taxpayers.

• Local Tax "Incentives" -- Special interest carve outs that lead to higher rates for everyone else.

• Regulatory favoritism -- According to TPPF: "the government enacts a series of regulations that essentially locks in a guaranteed revenue stream for existing players, all while discouraging new players from entering the market."

TPPF makes a number of policy recommendations; all move the ball in the right direction, though we will note some areas where they don't go far enough:

• Eliminate the Texas Enterprise Fund.

• Repeal all of the "Event Trust Funds."

• Eliminate the Texas Moving Image Industry Incentive Program.

• Eliminate the Agricultural Loan Guarantee Program.

• Eliminate the Texas Emissions Reduction Program.

• Eliminate the mandatory Texas' Renewable Portfolio Standard.

• Abolish the Skills Development Fund.

• Require "Tax Increment Reinvestment Zones" to publish their financial information on a the local governmental entity in questions public website.
• Note I: This doesn't go nearly far enough; Tax Increment Financing and Tax Increment Reinvestment Zones should be abolished in their entirety.
• Note II: The "Transportation" bond Austin passed last year is full of this crap.

• Allow Chapter 312 "property tax abatements" to expire in 2019!!!
• Note: Did you know that all local property tax abatements will go away in two years if the legislature does nothing?!?  Neither did we!!!  The Senate needs to grow a pair and kill this nonsense without a hearing.

• Eliminate Chapter 313 "abatements" from school districts.
• Note: Apparently, the office of the comptroller was recently given authority to deny this foolishness as well; we'll be keeping an eye on Glenn Hegar's performance in this area.

• Require local governments to make their "economic development" policies consistent and transparent.
• Note: No, we should just abolish this drivel.

• Eliminate the ability of political subdivisions to impose section 4A and 4B sales taxes.

• Discontinue public funding for "Economic Development Corporations."

• Eliminate Hotel Occupancy Taxes.

• Deregulate Title Insurance.

• Deregulate medical "scope of practice" requirements.

• Eliminate Texas' "three tier" system of alcohol regulations.
• Note: The Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission (TABC) is a public policy abomination that should be abolished in it's entirety.

• Review every occupational license category in Texas and eliminate all but those that demonstrate the highest level of need to protect health and safety.
• Note: Licensing is theft.  There is no 'health and safety' for any category of license.  That's always been true, but it's even truer in a world that includes Yelp!

Read the whole thing here.

Texas Railroad Commission a weak staging ground for higher office....

"The things which you learned and received and heard and saw in me, these do, and the God of peace will be with you."
Philippians 4:9

As the early positioning for Election 2018 begins, it's worth examining what happened to the last two Texas Railroad Commission chairs who attempted to "move up."

In 2014, then Railroad Commission chairman Barry Smitherman ran for the open Attorney General seat; he didn't make it out of the first round:

Republican primary

[hide]Texas Attorney General Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Ken Paxton	44.5%	569,034
Dan Branch	33.4%	428,034
Barry Smitherman	22.1%	282,701
Total Votes		1,279,769

In 2012, then-Chairman Michael Williams attempted to run for a newly created Congressional seat [Full disclosure: At the time, we lived in the relevant district and voted for Williams.]; likewise, he failed to make the runoff:

2012 Republican Party Primary Election

Roger Williams	25.10%
Wes Riddle	14.56%
Justin Hewlett	12.03%
David "Dave" Garrison	11.99%
Michael Williams	10.49%
Dianne Costa	9.36%
Brian Matthews	3.54%
Charles Holcomb	3.28%
Chad Wilbanks	3.10%
Bill Burch	3.06%
James Dillon	2.28%
Ernie Beltz Jr.	1.16%

Also in 2012, Elizabeth Ames Jones proved unable to leverage a seat on the Railroad commission even into a Texas Senate race:

2012 Republican Party Primary Election

Jeff Wentworth	35.77%
Donna Campbell	33.68%
Elizabeth Ames Jones	30.53%

Over the past 20 years, Carole Keaton Strayhorn's 1998 Comptroller campaign is the only example of a member of the Railroad commission successfully running for another position (and we suspect Glenn Hegar will be fine).

Bottom Line: The phrase "don't quit your day job" comes to mind.

Stickland Delays Shenanigans

"Though his hatred is covered by deceit,
His wickedness will be revealed before the assembly."
Proverbs 26:26

We discussed the local and consent calendar on Tuesday; looks like Stickland has taken the lesson to heart:

A state lawmaker who’s been a tea party idol appeared to fire a warning shot across the bow of the Texas House leadership team on Thursday when he single-handedly sandbagged a couple of bills that had appeared to have no opposition.

State Rep. Jonathan Stickland – a Bedford Republican who’s been one of Speaker Joe Straus’ most outspoken critics during the past two years – knocked the measures in question off the Local, Consent and Resolutions Calendar with a procedural tactic that’s been used at times for a variety of reasons.

Stickland’s maneuvering prevented proposals that Republican State Rep. Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches and Democratic State Rep. Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio are sponsoring from sailing through the lower chamber in expedited fashion in a package that included more than two dozen other bills that hadn’t encountered any apparent obstacles up to now.

The Gutierrez proposal that Stickland temporarily derailed would ban so-called e-cigarettes from public school property. Clardy’s measure that the second-term suburban lawmaker picked off would give Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar’s office the exclusive authority to approve or to reject energy conservation contracts that state colleges and universities here have negotiated.

....

Stickland threw up the tactical roadblock when he spoke in opposition to the electronic smoking and energy saving contract proposals for almost 10 minutes on each of the two bills. Stickland, a hard-line conservative with libertarian leanings, based his objections to the measures on the grounds that they would intrude on personal freedom and free market protections.

....

While none of Stickland’s colleagues questioned the sincerity of the concerns that he raised about the proposals, the procedural power play sparked speculation on whether he was more interested in sending a message to the Straus and the lieutenants on his leadership team than actually trying to kill the measures.

....

Stickland was one of 19 House Republicans who attempted to overthrow Straus at the start of the regular session in January when they pitched their support to GOP State Rep. Scott Turner of Frisco in the speaker’s election instead. Stickland had contended that the legislation he’s been pushing at the Capitol this year has been bottled up in committees without hearings or votes as retribution from the Straus team for his positions in the leadership contest and battles on policy issues.

Read the whole thing here.

A Post Convention Message to Battleground Texas

"The wicked flee when no one pursues,
But the righteous are bold as a lion."
Proverbs 28:1

#Gameon:

Republican Primary Statewide Endorsement List

"My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge."
Hosea 4:6

We hadn't intended to post a statewide candidate list.  Enough people have asked us to do so, however, that we humbly oblige.   We are flattered and honored that you value our opinion.

Governor:  Greg Abbott

This is the easiest call on the list.  Rick Perry has been, on net, an outstanding Governor.  Greg Abbott has been a critical ally.  Where they differ, the differences favor Abbott.  While we urge Abbott to be much more confrontational with the legislature, maintaining the status quo Rick Perry bequeaths is already a big win.

Lt. Governor:  NO ENDORSEMENT.

Attorney General:  Ken Paxton (previously endorsed).

Continuing to nurse hurt feelings over something that happened three years ago, during a different era in Tea Party history, is insane; Vote Ken Paxton.

Comptroller:  Debra Medina

This is the toughest call of the 2014 cycle.  In our view, Debra Medina is the candidate whose natural talents align closest with the duties of comptroller.  As Texas' chief financial officer, the Comptroller deals with money.  A long time Ron Paul confidant, Medina has a knack for fiscal policy we've always admired.  We expect Medina to be a gigantic pain in the ass to a lot of people who deserve one.

That being said, many people we know and respect support Glenn Hegar.  That's fine, Glenn Hegar is a good man who was very helpful behind the scenes.  If he wins, he will perform solidly.

Unlike Debra Medina, there is an actual Joe Straus lieutenant in this race.  Cahnman's Musings would prefer not to help build his name recognition or website traffic.  Empower Texans has everything you need to know here.

Land Commissioner:  David Watts Jr.

The current Land Commissioner has abused his office in a way that makes it impossible to support his campaign for Lt. Gov.  David Watts Jr. is the only candidate to address this abuse.  While we're discussing this race, Cahnman's Musings has also had enough of politicians named George Bush, thank you very much.

Agriculture Commissioner:  Sid Miller

Sid Miller isn't perfect.  Unfortunately, the alternatives are a buffoon, a Democrat, or Tommy Merritt.  We reserve the right to support Kinky Friedman in the general.

Railroad Commissioner: Wayne Christian

Despite the name, the Texas Rail Road Commission is the primary regulator of Texas booming energy sector.  To be honest, we wanted Wayne Christian to run for U.S. Senate, but he's running for Railroad Commission instead.  As commissioner, Wayne Christian will protect fracking and anger the business as usual crowd.

U.S. Senate: Steve Stockman (previously endorsed)

Last week, John Cornyn re-enforced everything we knew.  While good people disagree on the best alternative, the objective this round is only to hold Cornyn under 50%.  Personally, we believe Steve Stockman is a pest similar to (retired NHL star) Esa Tikkannen, which is exactly what the U.S. Senate needs.

Texas Supreme Court: Re-elect ALL incumbents

This is the Jeremiah 17:9 race of this cycle.

Over the past two months, there's been a Democrat-financed whisper campaign against incumbent Texas Supreme Court Justices Nathan Hecht, Phil Johnson, and Jeff Brown.  Cahnman's Musings was offered this story as an exclusive last December.  We were astonished when the person who fed us this story admitted the purpose was to embarrass Rick Perry.

Fortunately, the truth has emerged.  Anyone who supports the challengers is, at best, a useful idiot for Steve Mostyn. It's a shame certain people chose to permanently tarnish thier credibility.

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Cahnman's Musings also encourages readers to do their own homework regarding candidates closer to home; off the top of our head, we know readers in Bexar, Dallas, and Tarrant counties have local primaries with statewide implications.

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Those are our primary endorsements, take the or leave them.

Anatomy of a Bogus Attack

"Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour."
Exodus 20:16

Cahnman's Musings understands that it's primary season.  We understand tempers will flare.  People will say things they later regret. But certain attacks need to be stopped dead in their tracks.  The latest slander against YCT is one of them.

Writing at Big Jolly Politics, David Jennings invents a "controversy":

Young Conservatives of Texas enter pay-to-play world

Sounds super-shady; Jennings then lists donations to YCT's PAC from YCT endorsed candidates.

Unfortunately, the dates don't match.

• On October 23 of last year YCT endorsed Glenn Hegar.for Comptroller (over, it should be noted, a YCT alum).  According to Jennings, Hegar's campaign gave YCT $7000 on January 22.  For those of you keeping score at home, that's three months later.

• On October 28, YCT endorsed Wayne Christian for Railroad Commissioner.  The corresponding "pay for play" transaction occurred on January 14.  Again, that's two and a half months later.

• On November 11, YCT endorsed Sid Miller for Ag. Commissioner.  Miller then gave YCT $7000 on January 14.  Once again, that's over two months later.

• On December 19, YCT endorsed Dan Patrick for Lt. Gov.  Patrick gave YCT $7000 on January 14.  Again, that's nearly a month later.

• It's also worth noting that YCT has endorsed Ken Paxton for Attorney General but, at least according to Jennings, they haven't received a dime in return.

In each case, YCT endorsed a candidate who has widespread (though not necessarily universal) support among grassroots conservatives.  That a few endorsed candidates, after the fact, donated a miniscule sum (by campaign standards) to the group isn't notable.  Such donations typically help cover incidental expenses like printing and transportation.

The key to 'pay for play' is that pay comes first; anyone who gives away the play before they get paid is, at a minimum, not very good at pay for play.

But why let facts get in the way of a lazy narrative....

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Update: Steve Toth adds his two cents....

Steve Toth Sorry Joe Sager, you're wrong on Young Conservatives of Texas. Show me where they've taken money from candidates and in turn endorsed them. They've endorsed my campaign twice and I've never given them a dime. They've endorsed the vast majority of the folks in the House who score in the mid to high 90's with TFR and haven't given them any money at all. Can't argue with the rest of what you've said though. All the best!

about an hour ago · Unlike · 1

Beware #TXLEGE RINO's; an open letter to Sean Hannity

"Son of man, I have made you a watchman for the house of Israel; therefore hear a word from My mouth, and give them warning from Me"
Ezekiel 3:17

"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravenous wolves."
Matthew 7:15

Dear Sean,

Congratulations on your pending move to Texas.  I moved to Texas from NYC in 2007 (Beck followed me).  I love it.  You will too.  That being said, the faster you learn certain realities about Texas politics at the state level, the better.

The Texas Legislature, especially on the House side, is filled with crony-corporatist Republican establishment types.  They stay in power by masquerading as conservatives during the six weeks before Primary day.  The Texas Republican primary will take place on March 4.

You're being used.

Last night, my friend Brandon Darby posted a letter you received from Joe Straus lieutenant Texas State Rep. Harvey Hilderbran.  That letter is hilarious if you know how to read between the lines.  Harvey Hilderbran is currently running for Texas Comptroller with lots of lobbyist cash and ZERO grassroots support.

Now who, pray tell, is Harvey Hilderbran?!?

• First things first, Harvey Hilderbran is a 26 year incumbent; while he had some decent votes during George W. Bush's gubernatorial term, his recent behavior is lacking.

• He games the system to avoid tough votes.

• As chairman of the Texas House Ways and Means committee during the 83rd legislature, he chose to promote corporate welfare at the expense of broad-based tax relief.

• He is soft on Obamacare.

• He votes for every establishment priority.

In the race for Texas comptroller, there are two solid candidates: Glenn Hegar and Debra Medina; Harvey Hilderbran is as establishment as they come.

Texas is a fantastic place to live.  Our conservative principles have produced a business climate unequaled in the United States.  You'll love it.  Unfortunately, one side effect is that the RINO's in our legislature routinely seek opportunities to grandstand. Be very careful when Texas House Republicans act like your best friend.

Sincerely,
Adam Cahn
Austin, TX
January, 24 2014

Glenn Hegar picks up a HUGE Endorsement

In the race to replace the heroic Susan Combs, Glenn Hegar snags the most important endorsement available:

Texans for Fiscal Responsibility is pleased to endorse Glenn Hegar for Comptroller of Public Accounts.

Glenn Hegar will lead the fight for transparency, open government, and fiscal responsibility for Texas taxpayers. Texas needs someone who will diligently focus on reforming the problems of government debt and inefficiencies in spending. In his first term in the Texas Senate, Glenn pushed through legislation that allowed the Comptroller’s office to create a simple and searchable online database of state expenditures for Texans to know how and where their tax dollars are being spent. During the 83rd legislative session, Sen. Hegar served as chairman of the Subcommittee on Fiscal Matters (the committee charged with reviewing all state and local revenue matters) and demonstrated a commitment to looking comprehensively at the burden borne by Texas taxpayers.

Read the full endorsement here.

The is a very important development.  The comptroller position is a position that deals with money, and TFR is the most important fiscal conservative organization in Texas.  Based on conversations over the past few days, along with this endorsement, we believe that Hegar is the favorite to win this race.

Cahnman's Musings isn't a big fan of Glenn Hegar, but he might be the best of a bad lot in this race; personally, we wish Susan Combs would run again.

Glenn Hegar's Asinine Tax Gimmick

The pro-life, second amendment, two-step is alive and well in the comptroller's race:

Tax Holiday Weekend for Sportsmen

I am proposing a new annual "Back to Hunt" tax-free weekend that will take place prior to the fall hunting season. This break from taxes will work in much the same way as the current back to school holiday that has been so successful in helping parents prepare for the school year. My goal is to help sportsmen start the season right and increase the opportunities for new hunters and fishermen to carry on this Texas tradition.

 *SIGH*....Where to begin?!?

The economics profession has something called the Permanent Income Hypothesis, which is a fancy-pants highfalutin' way of saying that people make consumption decisions based on long-term factors, not short-term stimuli; tax-free weekends are gimmicks that merely shift the timing of consumption.

This is the exact same logic that the Obama administration used in the Cash for Clunkers program; so yeah, one of our Republican candidates for Texas Comptroller (the one who deals with all the money) started his campaign with an idea so terrible it could have been thought up by Barack Obama.

Cahnman's Musings believes most second amendment enthusiasts are intelligent enough to see through this economically illiterate pandering.