O'Rourke Regressing to Mean Faster than the Boston Red Sox

"Therefore, leaving the discussion of the elementary principles of Christ, let us go on to perfection, not laying again the foundation of repentance from dead works and of faith toward God,"
Hebrews 6:1

DMN yesterday:

AUSTIN — Beto O’Rourke wants to do everything he can to help Democrats win the Texas House this November — even if that means ​staying off the campaign trail and sending his volunteers to work for another candidate without him.

Whether the former El Paso congressman and presidential candidate’s help is a liability is a question after ​the Houston-area Democratic state House candidate he campaigned for in a special election last month was routed by a Republican.

After the election, the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee​ ​advised its candidates​ in an email​ not to speak to an Associated Press reporter asking whether they would accept O’Rourke’s help with their campaigns.

“Our recommendation is to provide no comment,” Justin Perez, the group’s political director, told candidates in an email obtained by The Dallas Morning News.

O’Rourke said Thursday: "If ​my presence is unhelpful, I’ll stay as far away as I can. I have no pride in this. My only goal is to help secure a Democratic majority in the statehouse. My only goal is to stop Trump and Trumpism in what I think is the most important year in the history of this country and to do my part.”

O’Rourke’s statement may tamp down concerns about how his political views might play in more traditionally conservative Texas districts where Democrats are fielding strong candidates. His veer to the left during his presidential run in 2019 — especially his support of a mandatory gun buyback program — would create difficulties for campaigns trying to sway independent and moderate Republican voters.

Democrats hoped​ that the special election in Fort Bend County​ would be their first opportunity to make a dent in their nine-seat deficit in the House, but Republicans exploited O’Rourke’s work as a surrogate for the Democratic candidate, Eliz Markowitz, tying her to his record on guns and on revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that oppose same-sex marriage.

The Republican, Gary Gates, won that district by 16 percentage points — double the previous GOP margin of victory in the district — leaving Democrats to rethink their use of O’Rourke as a surrogate in future races.

 (h/t PushJunction)

The whole thing is worth a read.  The DMN talks to some experts and profiles some races.  As the sample size gets bigger, 2018 looks like much more of a fluke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke is the political equivalent to the Boston Red Sox during the Alex Cora era.

(Except that the Red Sox won something.)

As time has passed, however, we know the next few chapters in the Boston Red Sox saga.  They haven't been pretty.  The exact same thing is happening to Bobby Francis O'Rourke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke was never that good.  The only reason the U.S. Senate race was close in 2018 was because Ted Cruz's campaign blew chunks.  O'Rourke just showed up, looked pretty, and kept it vague.

That playbook was always destined to have a limited shelf life.

That limited shelf life has now expired.

Bottom Line:  It should surprise nobody to see long-term historical averages reassert themselves.

#TXLEGE: Pete Flores might be the Biggest Integrity Upgrade of All Time

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

During Policy Orientation last week, Senator Pete Flores spoke on the panel: "South Texas is Texas Too: Bringing South-Texas Priorities to Austin and D.C."  It was a good discussion.  Mostly about South Texas' impact on the broader economies of both Texas and the United States.

Throughout the discussion, however, we kept coming back to one thought: Pete Flores' predecessor.

Pete Flores' predecessor, for those who don't remember, was this guy.  Also this guy.  And this guy.

He's also this guy:

SAN ANTONIO — The courtroom was silent and thick with anxiety Thursday morning as the judge’s deputy read the verdicts: “Guilty,” “guilty,” “guilty” — 11 times over, and on all felony counts.

State Sen. Carlos Uresti sat stone-faced, his gaze directed at the deputy, as he heard the ruling that throws into question his two-decade career in the Texas Legislature and opens up the possibility of more than a century in federal prison and millions of dollars in fines.

If upheld on appeal, the 11 felony charges — including multiple counts of fraud and money laundering — would render the San Antonio Democrat ineligible to continue serving as a state legislator. Uresti, an attorney by trade, would also be disbarred.

....

Uresti was charged last year in connection with FourWinds Logistics, a now-bankrupt oilfield services company that perpetrated a Ponzi scheme against its investors. Uresti served as general counsel for FourWinds and owned 1 percent of the company. He also earned commission for recruiting investors, according to court documents.

Several of the company’s leaders pleaded guilty to fraud charges before Uresti’s case even went to trial, some of them in plea agreements to testify for the government. Prosecutors argued that Uresti had used his prestigious reputation to lend credibility to an unknown company; several investors testified that Uresti’s presence reassured them that their money would be safe with FourWinds. But Uresti’s lawyers countered that the lawmaker was never aware of, or involved in, the company’s shady dealings.

Uresti’s co-defendant, former FourWinds consultant Gary Cain, was also found guilty on all counts.

....

The prominent and at times salacious case has drawn dozens of unaffiliated observers to the courthouse over the past month. The courtroom was particularly packed for three days of testimony from Uresti’s former legal client Denise Cantu, who lost most of the $900,000 she invested in FourWinds. Cantu — who said she had an affair with Uresti — won that money with his legal representation in a wrongful death suit after her son and daughter were killed in 2010 car accident.

That's pretty much what you need to know about Pete Flores' predecessor (although the strong stomached can read more here).

By contrast, Pete Flores is just a guy who wants to maximize economic growth in South Texas.  We don't necessarily agree with every idea he has to accomplish that objective.  Still, our objections to the current Texas Senator from District 19 is limited to a few policy issues.

It's quite the disparity.

Bottom Line: The difference between the last two Senators from SD-19 speaks for itself.

Cruz and Roy FINALLY do what they should've done FIVE YEARS AGO

"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

TPPF earlier this week:

AUSTIN – The Texas Public Policy Foundation praises the introduction of the Personalized Care Act in the Senate (S. 3112) by Senators Cruz and Braun and in the House (H.R. 5596) this week by Representative Chip Roy.

These concise bills make a substantial impact to the U.S. employer-based health care system by allowing individuals to have the same benefits as employers to buy medical coverage and services with pre-tax dollars.

“Allowing for this equality between employers and employees will help improve portability of coverage for individuals and would free Americans from job-lock of undesirable jobs they are keeping solely for cheaper, employer-based health insurance,” said David Balat, director of the Right on Healthcare initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

The Personalized Care Act will expand Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and put millions of Americans in control of their healthcare choices. This will allow Americans to personalize their care with tax-advantaged dollars. Among other enhancements, the bill allows funds from HSAs to be used in coordination for expanded healthcare options such as direct medical care, healthcare sharing ministries, medications, and insurance premiums.

It's ABOUT dadgum time.

Ted Cruz and Chip Roy are two of the GOP's best spokespeople on health care.  They've needed to put out their own plan for a long, long time.  They FINALLY did it!!!

We first discussed this publicly in 2018.  We've been saying the same thing privately for longer.  Although we didn't think it newsworthy at the time, we delivered this message to Cruz personally following a local 2017 event.

Had this plan existed a few years ago, a lot of pain could have been avoided.  The missed opportunity of not doing so remains an act of political malpractice.  But it happened.  All you can do now is correct the mistake moving forward.  This week's news does that.

Bottom Line: Late > Never, etc.

#TXLEGE: Davis Completes Final Humiliation of Abbott

"The end of a thing is better than its beginning;
The patient in spirit is better than the proud in spirit."
Ecclesiastes 7:8

Classic:

With the filing deadline for candidates now officially in the rearview mirror, Gov. Greg Abbott has made a shocking announcement, endorsing openly pro-abortion State Rep. Sarah Davis (R–West University Place) for re-election.

In a press release on Tuesday morning, Abbott praised Davis for her “dedication to the people of Texas,” adding that he was “proud” to endorse her for re-election to the Texas House.

“State Representative Sarah Davis advocates for the needs and priorities of her constituents,” said Abbott. “And while we haven’t always seen eye to eye, we share the same commitment to bring people together to solve problems and improve the lives of all Texans.”

“The lives of all Texans” that Abbott mentions, however, clearly doesn’t refer to the lives of unborn children. Davis is unabashedly pro-abortion, even caucusing with Democrat lawmakers in secret meetings during debates over pro-life legislation and going on MSNBC to advocate for more lax abortion laws. Her record and advocacy for the practice have earned her accolades from groups like Planned Parenthood and the National Abortion Rights Action League.

Just two years ago, Abbott earned praise from conservatives across the state for his endorsement against Sarah Davis after he compared her to Wendy Davis, a national pro-abortion figure and his former Democrat opponent.

“She’s not really a Republican, but she has a ‘Republican’ by her name,” Abbott said at a fundraiser in January 2018. “It won’t surprise you to know The Huffington Post came out and glowingly compared her to Wendy Davis. We have beat Wendy Davis before. We cannot allow another Wendy Davis look-alike in the Texas House.”

Davis is not only a liberal on the issue of life; she has often sided with Democrats against conservatives in the Texas Legislature. During the last legislative session alone, Davis worked to grow government spending, increase the ability of local governments to raise taxes, and even teamed up with Democrats to kill a proposed ban on taxpayer-funded lobbying.

Obviously, this website doesn't support Sarah Davis' politics.  But this development is still kinda hilarious.  Poetic justice, reaping what you sow, etc.

It's not just that Abbott endorsed against her last cycle.  At least, not really.  It's that he did it in such a buffoonish way.  Davis, of course, beat the Governor like a rented drum.

Now he comes crawling back.

As we wrote last year:

While Tuesday's results were a mixed bag for lege watchers from across the ideological spectrum, there was one GIGANTIC loser: Greg Abbott, specifically his SPECTACULAR FAILURE against Sarah Davis.

It's been obvious for months that Sarah Davis was going to win that primary. Abbott's ridiculous, over-the-top (and easily disprovable), attack against Davis related to Hurricane Harvey was bound to backfire.

Less than two years later...how the mighty have fallen.

It's a little funny.

Bottom Line: That this was all completely predictable doesn't make it any less entertaining.

Pete Sessions: Answer to Question NOBODY's Asking

"Every prudent man acts with knowledge,
But a fool lays open his folly."
Proverbs 13:16

Cartoonishly, super-terrible, idea:

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions appears poised to make a comeback attempt — but not in his old Dallas-based district.

Sessions, who lost reelection last year, plans to announce Thursday he's running for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Bill Flores, according to McLennan County GOP Chairman Jon R. Ker. The announcement will be at the county party headquarters in Waco, added Ker, who said he spoke with Sessions on Tuesday.

Sessions' anticipated run is a surprise development after he spent months publicly flirting with running for his previous 32nd District seat, which is about 80 miles north of Flores' more Republican 17th District.

....

Sessions is not entirely new to the area. He was born there and grew up in Waco, where his dad, a former FBI director, worked as an attorney in the 1960s.

We could write a 20-40 page dissertation on everything wrong with this idea, but off the top of our head:

• Arrogance -- More than anything else, this common political trait was Pete Sessions' undoing.  We personally experienced this side of Sessions at a 2015 event, when Sessions quasi-censored (*) our first amendment rights.  Suffice to say, Sessions didn't want a record of the degree to which he acted like a jerk that night.
  
  [* - Had we sued, we would have beaten Sessions in court, but said lawsuit was more trouble than it would have been worth.]
  
  Pete Sessions is the dude who claimed a homestead exemption in Florida while allegedly representing Texas.
  
  To be honest, for Pete Sessions to believe that a place where he last lived over five decades ago is clamoring for his representation tells you everything you need to know.

• Corruption -- Just last year, Pete Sessions was busted for living large off of campaign contributions.
  
  That's just what's publicly reported.
  
  It wouldn't surprise us if there's more.
  
• Loserdom -- Sessions lost to a Democrat less than a year ago.

Sheesh.

-------

In fairness to folks in the Waco county area, a fair amount of resistance to this idea seems to have sprung up.

Good.

We need more.

-------

Bottom Line: Pete Sessions is an arrogant, corrupt, loser.  By themselves, any one of those traits should be disqualifying.  It takes a special type of establishment Republican to hit that trifecta....

Jeff Roe Should Stop "Anonymously" Spinning Failure

"A worthless person, a wicked man,
Walks with a perverse mouth;"
Proverbs 6:12

"Texas Republican Strategist" today in national press:

"We need a new Republican Party because the one we have is getting our asses kicked in House races," one Texas GOP strategist, who works with various campaigns and asked to speak anonymously to be candid, told Axios.

Anonymous sourcing 101: Quote your source by name later in the article; which we bring up because....

"It sucks being in the minority, and a lot of these guys haven't been in the minority since '06, and they are fearful there isn't a lot of hope to get the majority back in this cycle,” said Jeff Roe, a Republican political consultant who's worked with Sen. Ted Cruz.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

So the guy who ran Ted Cruz's 2018 campaign into the ground purports to offer advice?!?

Classic.

[Note: Only an imbecile believes "it sucks being in the minority." Being in a legislative minority is one of the sweetest gigs in politics.  48% of the budget with 0% of the responsibility.]

We've said our piece about the Texas GOP's 2018 failures.  We've also said our piece about Ted Cruz's 2018 failures.  We don't have much new to say.  But maybe, just maybe, the architect of those failures might want to refrain from offering anonymous 'advice.'

Jeff Roe, never forget, was the genius who thought it was a good idea to get into a two week argument with Cruz's strongest supporters over yard signs.

Jeff Roe, likewise, ran the genius campaign who thought it was a good idea to discuss the pregame habits of football players rather than health care.

Bottom Line: There are any number of things that may or may not make sense in 2020, but step one is to ignore the architects of the 2018 failure.

Texas by the Numbers

"For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it—"
Luke 14:28

If you want to understand the data behind the current state of play in Texas, then this episode of the Luke Macias show is a must listen.  Luke interviews Derek Ryan, of Ryan Data and Research, a former RPT data analyst who is widely respected across the political spectrum.  We'll post the interview and our notes below.

Before we do, however, we need to point something out: Derek Ryan's data backs up three points we've been making for awhile.

Specifically:

1. Glenn Hegar as a proxy for generic Republican vote -- Following the 2018 election, we calculated the "Trump effect" by comparing Glenn Hegar's 2018 result to his 2014 result.  We came up with a five point shift to the Democrats.  Ryan's, meanwhile, did a detailed statistical analysis that shows a four point shift to the Democrats.  Obviously, his analysis is far more complete than ours, but ours was a lot less work.  Both point to a mid-single digit sized shift.
   
2. Underperformance in Urban Areas has statewide consequences -- Apparently, there are over 500,000 Republican Primary voters who didn't vote in the 2018 general election.  When asked about the geographic distribution of these voters, Ryan specifically mentioned Travis, Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties.  It's almost like we wrote about that last week, or something....
   
3. The utter, total, and complete incompetence of the Hays County GOP -- Ryan tells a story that's absolutely bonkers.
   
   According to Ryan, now state representative Erin Zweiner once allegedly wrote a blog post where she claimed responsibility for low-level acts of ecoterrorism in Western Travis County.  Furthermore, apparently, Ryan discovered this well before last year's election.  Ryan uses this as an example of how national events overwhelmed down ballot races, but we have a different hypothesis.
   
   What if the Hays GOP is incompetent?!?
   This author consumes a large amount of political news.  Furthermore, as a blogger, we're always on the lookout for local stories that are undercovered.  Yet the first time we hear this story is on a podcast almost a year after the election.
   
   We don't necessarily cover everything he hear.  However, between formal and informal sources, we usually have a good idea about major activity.  Yet this (alleged) factoid slipped not only this author's radar, but local activists' as well.
   
   That is a failure across all levels of the party.
   
   Of course, we specifically highlighted the Hays GOP's failures in our analysis of the 2018 debacle.

You can hear the full podcast below:

Highlights:

• Serious discussion of political data begins at the 10 minute mark.

• Generic R votes has gone down by approximately four points under Trump.

• Suburbs are "changing significantly."
• Collin - 7.7% shift to D's
• Denton - 6.6%
• WillCo - 5.7%

• 2018 had higher under 20 turnout than 2016.

• In 2018, lots of people voted "that we didn't already know."

• 548,000 Republican primary voters didn't vote in November.

• "2018 was kind of a perfect storm for the Democrats."

• THE LEVEL OF GOP INCOMPETENCE IN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE'RE HEARING ABOUT THIS ERIN ZWEINER ECO-TERRORIST STORY IS ASTOUNDING.

• Voter registration ahead of 2016 pace.

• 17 state rep district GOP < 55% in 2018.
• D's are registering like crazy in those areas.

Marchant and Olson are LOSERS and the GOP should Break Up with Them BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Hoo boy:

Two potentially vulnerable Texas Republicans in Congress were outraised — and a few others saw seriously funded challengers — as the first major fundraising deadline passed in a cycle where national Democrats have built an expansive battlefield here, targeting six seats.

In the second quarter, Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land, fell short of Democratic challenger Sri Preston Kulkarni, $378,000 to $421,000. Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell, raised less than Democratic opponent Kim Olson, $225,000 to $279,000, before making a large loan to his campaign.

Not good.

This combination of energized opponents and lethargic incumbents sounds...a lot like two congressional seats the GOP lost in 2018.

In March, we wrote a long piece examining Congressional races.  In that piece, we crunched a bunch of numbers related to 2018 election results.  The relevant section is too long to quote in full, but the TL,DR version is that lazy incumbents with a bad record and a sense of entitlement should be avoided like the plague.

Meanwhile, Republicans held EVERY.  SINGLE.  OPEN.  SEAT.

Finally, as we said last year about a certain now-former congressman:

Pete Sessions is a liability that should have been dealt with YEARS ago

That liability was never addressed. Eventually, the Democrats had a good enough year that Sessions lost. Given yesterday's news, Kenny Marchant and Pete Olson are officially liabilities.

The good news: Filing deadline is still five months away.

The bad news: Everybody's whistling past the graveyard.

Bottom Line: Lazy incumbents with a bad record and a sense of entitlement are TERRIBLE general election candidates.  There's still time to avoid that fate.  If these two incumbents retain the party nomination, however, don't be surprised when they lose.

#TXLEGE: School District Electioneering Ban Still Moving

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

We were looking for something else in today's posting for the house elections committee, when we noticed the following bill was up:

SB 1569        Fallon                  
Relating to the use of public money and resources by employees of an independent school district to distribute a communication that advocates for or opposes a political measure, candidate, or party; creating a criminal offense.

This bill is in direct response to the shenanigans the educrats pulled during the last election cycle.

It's very welcome.

As a principle, it's (kinda) similar to taxpayer funded lobbying.  At their core, both taxpayer funded lobbying and electioneering by school districts involve taxing all citizens to subsidize one set of political views.  It's compelled speech.

Public subsidies for certain forms of political speech are one of the bigger problems this state faces.  Moving forward, one conclusion we've reached from this session is that they need to be address more systemically.  We fully intended to include school district electioneering in that discussion.  But, if the legislature wants to knock out that one form of subsidy right now, so much the better.

Bottom Line: To be honest, we thought this bill had died weeks ago.  We never thought they'd find the votes to get it out of the Senate.  But, if they could votes in that chamber, maybe they can find them in the house....

The Luckiest Man in Texas (for now)

"I returned and saw under the sun that—

The race is not to the swift,
Nor the battle to the strong,
Nor bread to the wise,
Nor riches to men of understanding,
Nor favor to men of skill;
But time and chance happen to them all.
Ecclesiastes 9:11

Wasn't expecting her to pull the trigger:



M.J. Hegar in a U.S. Senate race is an interesting dynamic.  How it play out remains to be seen.  But the down ballot implication is obvious.

Nobody is happier about this decision than John Carter.

In case you forgot:

Throughout last fall's campaign, we argued (on multiple occasions) that Carter would be safe in a midterm, but that a presidential cycle was a different story.  That being said, even we didn't think Carter would lose WillCo.  We still think Carter's a terrible candidate.

John Carter is the Congressional equivalent of Wonder Bread: Old, White, and bleached of nutritional value.



Yet, the woman who nearly took him out last time decides to run for something else.

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That being said, the filing deadline isn't for 8 months; it wouldn't surprise us to see M.J. Hegar switch races after Labor Day.

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Bottom Line: John Carter is a pretty worthless congressman.  John Carter is a reliably cheap date for plutocracy; the type of dullard too arrogant to comprehend his own stupidity.  If Karl Rove and used dish soap had a baby, it would be John Carter.  That being said, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good (or smart) (or personable) (or interesting).

#TXLEGE: Sham Bill Nevertheless Accomplishes Political Purposes

"But whoever causes one of these little ones who believe in Me to sin, it would be better for him if a millstone were hung around his neck, and he were drowned in the depth of the sea."
Matthew 18:6

[Note: Van Halen's "Runnin' with the Devil" literally came on in the background as we sat down to write this blog post.]

Fascinating write up in the Texas Observer over last week's passage of the 'born-alive' act:

As the Texas House voted on the first anti-abortion bill to make it to the floor this session, advocates rolled down a banner above the board displaying lawmakers’ votes: “STOP TURNING LIES INTO LAWS.”

The House gave initial passage to the bill, titled the “Texas Born-Alive Infant Protection Act,” after a brief but tense floor debate Tuesday evening, and gave it a final stamp of approval on Wednesday. The measure, House Bill 16, is Texas’ version of a national proposal that failed in the U.S. Senate earlier this year. HB 16 would penalize doctors who don’t give full medical treatment to babies born alive after abortion. Practically speaking, the bill does very little: There have been zero cases reported by the state since it started tracking them in 2013. Even if it did occur, federal law already requires infants born alive at any stage in development be given equal protection. But abortion-rights advocates say the measure is dangerous political propaganda that aims to paint abortions later in pregnancy as extreme and target the doctors who provide them.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

Money quote from Donna Howard:

“We refuse to waste the limited time we have here to take care of the people’s business by entertaining malicious and purely political attacks against women and doctors,” Howard said. “We refuse to ignore the expertise of medical professionals and allow them to be targeted and harassed. We refuse to use the power entrusted in us by our constituents and the voters of Texas for political theater, or to be party to turning lies into law.”

Here's the thing: Donna Howard is correct.  This 'born-alive' bill is political theater.  But (like all Democrats) she misunderstands the intended target of the theatrics.  In her misunderstanding, she led Democrats right into the trap.

Allow this guy to explain:

The Democrats' refusal to support children born alive will haunt them in the upcoming elections. Republicans are on the right side of life. There's only a tiny constituency who favors killing kids born alive. #txlege https://t.co/sBUtJQnFOS

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) April 21, 2019

-----

As we explained about six weeks ago:

There's nothing inherently wrong with this bill.  Obviously, babies still alive after an abortion deserve medical care.  But, notice that phrase: After an abortion.

A month ago, following Democrats' stunt at the committee hearing:

This bill doesn't stop a single abortion.  This bill only goes into effect after the baby is 100% outside the birth canal.  That's why we've been unenthusiastic about it.  But Holy Toledo Democrats....

There will be plenty of time to discuss the proper response, but it's worth taking a second to reflect on the insanity of this position: Texas Democrats want to Deny Medical Care to Infants who are 100% outside the birth canal.

Again, The Texas Observer article linked above is correct. This bill doesn't stop a single abortion.  That's not its purpose.

The purpose of the 'born-alive' bill is to find an obvious, common sense, issue with almost zero practical impact.  Then get the Democrats to vote against it.  Which most of them just did (more on that below).

------

This issue polls well with suburban women.

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Here's what's crazier: In a session in which 'bi-partisanship' (hashtagNewDay, hashtagTexasPlan, hashtagTheTimeisNow) is all the rage, the Democrats could have used this to neutralize abortion as a campaign issue.

Had the Democrats gone along with this farce, they could have taken a vote for political cover without stopping a single abortion.

They could have made it all about 'bi-partisanship.'  They could have spun it as being 'magnanimous.'  They could have appeared to have made a concession (without conceding anything in reality).  Heck, they probably could have traded their support for several Billion dollars of additional spending.

Instead, they took the vote they took.....

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Democrat State Reps elected in 2018 who voted against 'born-alive' act:

• Michelle Beckley

• Rhetta Bowers

• John Bucy

• Gina Calanni

• Art Fierro

• Vicki Goodwin

• Julie Johnson

• Ray Lopez

• Terry Meza

• Lina Ortega

• Ana-Maria Ramos

• John Rosenthal

• Carl Sherman -- Note: Apparently, this guy's a Pastor.

• James Talarico

• Erin Zweiner

Obviously, a few of those are safe seats where one Democrat took over for another.  But most of those are districts the D's picked up last fall.  Good luck defending that vote.

Furthermore, most of those Democrats are white, a point upon which we will elaborate below.

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Let's return to the Texas Observer article that was the original reason for this blog post:

The bill passed, 93-1-50; Republicans were joined by 12 Democrats to support it, while state Representative Harold Dutton, D-Houston cast the sole “no” vote and 50 lawmakers registered “present, not voting.”

Sssssssssay what?!?  12 Democrats voted for the 'born-alive' act?!?  While there are a handful of D's that vote for pro-life bills, 12 is really high.

Which ones?!?

[Note: Joe Moody later made a journal statement for the bill.]

The overwhelming majority of those members are Black or Hispanic; all of those members, except one, represent majority-minority districts.

That's a racial dynamic Republicans should exploit.

Especially when white Democrats are taking the votes referenced above.

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Bottom Line: We'd rather prevent abortions, but we'll take the campaign issue....

Georgia Proving Greg Abbott's Pro-Life FAILURES

"Therefore, to him who knows to do good and does not do it, to him it is sin."
James 4:17

Via Erick Erickson:

The Georgia House of Representatives has passed the fetal heartbeat legislation. In the past week, progressives have mounted strident opposition to the legislation, but Republicans held their ground. The measure passed the Georgia House with 92 votes to 78 in opposition.

Democrats claim they will use this measure to take back the House next year, but objective polling shows most women are actually in favor of some restrictions on abortion. This measure would begin restricting abortions when the child has his own heartbeat. It would also allow parents to claim children in utero for tax purposes and allow mothers to get deadbeat dads to help cover the costs of pregnancy.

Governor Kemp intends to sign the legislation.

Meanwhile, in Texas, we can't even establish a quorum to pass the joke bill they're using to run interference.

What's really insane: 2018 General Election was closer in Georgia than Texas.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp:

Greg Abbott:

Even if you use the Cruz/O'Rourke race as your benchmark, Texas Republicans still won bigger.

Which proves that close elections are no reason to go soft on life.

Bottom Line: The midterm election was closer in Georgia than Texas.  Yet Georgia moves forward.  For that, you can blame Greg Abbott....

Early returns on O'Rourke's Presidential Campaign illustrate Cruz's Cataclysmic FAILURE last year

"[H]e is a double-minded man, unstable in all his ways."
James 1:8

Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's running.  Nobody's surprised.  That being said, we have one observation.

Why, pray tell, have we heard more about O'Rourke's Billionaire daddy-in-law during the past day and a half than we did during the year and a half long U.S. Senate campaign?!?

The obvious answer is that the media cares about such things more now than they did at the time.  There's a lot of truth to that.  But, even so, that's not good enough.

The evidence that O'Rourke abused his authority, to steal land from poor people of color, all to benefit his billionaire daddy-in-law, was always hiding in plain sight.

Throughout last year's U.S. Senate race, we made the point that O'Rourke was nothing more than a typical scumbag Texas politician over and over and over again.  Without getting into too much detail, we made similar points privately to the Cruz campaign (using much stronger language).  Unfortunately, this aspect of O'Rourke's record was, at best, underutilized.

Instead, Cruz's team decided to make the election about hair dye (we all know how that turned out).

Bottom Line: Better late than never (perhaps)....

#TX2020: The NRCC is RETARDED if they think they should run incumbents in Texas

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The Cook Political Report, in discussing national congressional races, drops this nugget:

A key 2020 House battleground will be Texas. Democrats picked up two seats in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston last fall, but came within single digits in six more districts. The NRCC has already met with the six incumbents who survived close calls to secure commitments to run again and raise more money in 2020.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.  No.

This type of stale, conventional, thinking is the quickest route to a second debacle in 2020.

We can explain in two numbers from last cycle: Six and Two.

• Six -- The number of open seat races Republicans held in Congressional races.
• Note: Seats now held by Dan Crenshaw, Van Taylor, Lance Gooden, Ron Wright, Chip Roy, and Michael Cloud.

• Two -- The number of incumbent Republican congressman who lost.
• Note: Seats now held by Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and Colin Allred, which were formerly held by John Culberson and Pete Sessions.

That should be the end of this cliched discussion, but since it won't be, we'll go further.

------

Chip Roy vs. John Carter:

Nowhere is this phenomenon clearer than in two suburban Congressional districts near Austin.  In the first district, a new candidate with a dedicated grassroots following held his open seat.  In the second district, a mediocre incumbent had a closer call than anyone expected.

On the surface, the results in CD-21 (Hill Country) and CD-31 (WillCo) look similar:

It's only when one compares them to Trump's performance in 2016 that the pattern emerges:

Trump's 2016 margin minus the 2018 GOP candidate's margin follows:

• CD-21: 10% - 2.8% = 7.2% GOP dropoff between '16 and '18.

• CD-31: 13% - 3% = 10% GOP dropoff between '16 and '18.

That 2.8% is the difference between good candidates in open seats vs. lousy incumbents.

This is exactly what we predicted would happen in those two districts, and the data backs us up.

Of course, we also predicted that John Carter was in a lot of trouble in a presidential cycle...but, by all means, let's run John Friggin' Carter in a presidential cycle.

And yes, Chip Roy saved the GOP's bacon in CD-21.

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Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor:

It wasn't as pronounced as the Chip Roy race, but a similar phenomenon emerged in Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor's races.

2016 results here.

2018 results here.

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Learning from Pete Sessions:

Last cycle, we wrote the following about now-former congressman Pete Sessions:

Pete Sessions is a liability that should have been dealt with YEARS ago

That specific blog post was written in reference to a scandal surrounding Sessions' abuse of campaign contributions, but the headline doubles as a general metaphor for Pete Sessions.

We warned people about Sessions for YEARS.  Eventually, in a strong enough Democrat wave, he lost.  We should learn that lesson and preemptively address our other liabilities.

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Learning from John Culberson:

One of the open secrets among Republican campaign types last cycle was John Culberson's laziness.    Culberson might have held his seat if he'd simply worked harder.  Culberson approached the race with a sense of entitlement and the results speak for themselves.

Of course, incumbent politicians becoming entitled and lazy shouldn't surprise anyone.

Perhaps we shouldn't run entitled, lazy, incumbents.

-------

Reminder from 2018:

• Open Congressional seats Texas Republicans held: 6.

• Incumbent Congressional seats Texas Republicans lost: 2.

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Bottom Line: In a competitive general election environment, it's much better to have a good candidate running in an open seat than it is to try and drag some lousy incumbent across the finish line.

#TXLEGE: Organization that ignored grotesque sexism during last campaign suddenly concerned about "Republican women"

"Strength and honor are her clothing;
She shall rejoice in time to come."
Proverbs 31:25

Texas Tribune this morning:

For female Republicans looking to become freshmen in the Texas Legislature, last year was the year of the woman — or, if you want to include both of them, women.

Candy Noble and Angela Paxton were the only freshman female Republicans elected to the Texas House and Senate, respectively, amid a surge of women running for office.

Noble and Paxton exemplify what’s widely viewed as a dearth of female GOP lawmakers in the Legislature. In the Senate, the number of Republican women serving is at an all-time high, but they make up less than a third of the chamber’s GOP-held seats. Across the rotunda, the gender gap is far more visible: Of the 83 Republicans serving, six are women. Democratic women, by comparison, hold 27 of the party’s seats.

As recently as 2012, 19 Republican women served in the House.

To be sure, this topic warrants discussion.  Conservatives have been arguing (correctly) for years about inherent biological differences between men and women.   Thus, it is only logical that we should respect those inherent differences in political communication.  Republicans should take heed.

However, coming from the Trib, one cannot help but think back to the last Republican primary:



That would be incumbent state representative Ernest 'Dirty Ernie' Bailes.  During the last campaign, Bailes called his young, female, opponent a "prostitute" because she worked with a pro-life organization that wasn't aligned with the former speaker.  It was grotesquely sexist.

Here's the thing: The Texas Tribune, literally, didn't cover it.

If the Texas Tribune is honestly curious about why there aren't more Republican women in the legislature, they might want to start there.

Consider what we said at the time:

#TXLEGE: Bailes calling Cook a "prostitute" SHOULD be litmus test for Toxic Capitol Culture....

....

Since the Daily Beast reports about the culture of chronic sexual abuse at the Texas Capitol came out, we're heard a lot of talk about part of the solution is for more women to run for office. To be honest, this website agrees with a lot of that talk. So what happens when a young woman runs for the Texas legislature against a male incumbent with a lousy record?!?

Emily Kebodeaux Cook is a well known activist who has worked with Texas Right to Life the past several legislative sessions. She's currently running against liberal Republican Ernest Bailes for a house seat north of Houston. This is a textbook case of a young woman running against the corrupt status quo.

....

Ironically, we've believed for some time that this race was a good test for those who believe "we need more women in politics." As stated above, this is a textbook case of a young woman running against a male-dominated status quo. But, in this case, the male in question happens to be a reliable vote to preserve said status quo who enjoys support from Democrats.

Then the male in question calls the female in question a "prostitute."

....

Bottom Line: This race was always going to be an interesting test of the philosophical consistency of those who believe 'more women in politics' is (at least part of) the solution to recent scandals. And that was before the pro-status quo male incumbent called his conservative female challenger a "prostitute." Won't it be interesting to see the reaction (or lack thereof) in this case....

As we suspected would happen, "lack thereof" was an accurate prediction.

Now, a year later, the Texas Tribune wonders why there aren't more Republican women in the legislature.

-------

Ironically enough, we wrote the above words before we saw what we saw at the last RPT convention.

-------

In fairness to the Trib, they did interview Cook for the article:

That’s not to say women aren’t trying. During last year’s primaries, Emily Kebodeaux Cook, a first-time political candidate, was one of many Republican women who challenged male incumbents or ran for open seats at the Legislature.

In Cook’s case, she ran against incumbent Rep. Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, who won the primary with 59 percent of the vote, compared with Cook’s 41 percent. Cook said she ran because she disagreed with Bailes' voting record during the past legislative session. She added, however, that “the Republican Party will be stronger overall when it’s not just one side of the aisle that has elected officials who look like our daughters.”

But campaigning as a Republican woman comes with its own set of hurdles. Cook said when voters brought up her gender as she and her team went canvassing, those questions often came from other women — rather than men — which she found “astonishing.”

“While a man might ask me where I stood on policy matters,” Cook said, “the first question from another woman would be, ‘How can you balance raising a young family with serving in elected office?’”

That's fine.  It certainly is interesting that female voters are more likely to ask female candidates about work/life balance.  But come on.

-------

Bottom Line: If you ignore a malicious creep calling a young woman a "prostitute," you're not in a position to decry the afore mentioned creeps re-election.

Shelia Jackson Lee, Harris County D's, Need to Answer VERY Serious Questions

"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

ICYMI, late last week:

WASHINGTON — A former staffer for Texas Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee claims in a new lawsuit that the lawmaker retaliated against her and fired her because she was planning to pursue legal action over an alleged rape by a former employee of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation.

The woman, identified in court papers by the pseudonym Jane Doe, alleges she was raped in October 2015, when she was a 19-year-old intern for the CBCF, by the foundation’s intern coordinator at the time, Damien Jones. The woman said she reported the alleged rape to police and told several people, including Rep. Terri Sewell, her former boss and a distant relative of her mother’s, but did not pursue legal action at the time.

Several years later, when Jane Doe was working for Jackson Lee, the woman decided she did want to pursue legal action, and told Jackson Lee’s chief of staff Glenn Rushing in early March 2018. The woman alleges that she asked to speak with Jackson Lee about it, but a meeting never happened, and several weeks later she was fired. Jackson Lee is chair of the board for the CBCF.

Jones did not return requests for comment. After leaving the CBCF in late 2015, he continued to work in Democratic politics and recently served as the regional political director for former representative Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign. Chris Evans, a spokesperson for the O’Rourke campaign, said in an email to BuzzFeed News, “The Beto for Texas campaign was absolutely not aware of these allegations until today and no longer has a relationship with Damien Jones.”

Rushing told BuzzFeed News in a phone call that “We had nothing to do with any of the actions that have been cited and the person was not wrongfully terminated.” He declined to answer additional questions.

Jackson Lee's office later released a statement pointing to the congresswoman's record on civil rights and non-discrimination measures, and saying that the office "adamantly denies the allegations that it retaliated against, or otherwise improperly treated, the plaintiff. It is against office policy to discuss specific details about internal personnel matters."

"Although the Congresswoman is eager to respond substantively, she will do so only at the appropriate time, as the court docket dictates. The Congresswoman is confident that, once all of the facts come to light, her Office will be exonerated of any retaliatory or otherwise improper conduct and this matter will be put to rest," Jackson Lee's office said. "While we still deny the allegations, we are especially concerned about Ms. Doe and only want the best for her and the many, many young people that the Congressional office has supported, encouraged, and provided opportunities for over 20 years."

Marc Banks, a spokesperson for the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a phone interview that he did not know whether there had been any communication between the foundation and Jackson Lee's office about the rape allegation against Jones or Jane Doe's plan to sue the foundation. But he said that a decision to fire a congressional staffer was "outside the purview of the foundation."

"We would have no reason to harm the former intern," Banks said.

Banks said that the foundation took "immediate and swift action" to fire Jones after investigating Jane Doe's allegations, but he was "not privy" to what the foundation learned in the course of that review.

....

In late 2017, Jane Doe took a job in Jackson Lee’s congressional office. Soon after she was hired, according to the lawsuit, Jane Doe learned that Jones might be hired in Jackson Lee’s office, and she told Rushing that she had a “prior situation” with Jones and would not be comfortable working together. Rushing allegedly told her that he understood and didn’t end up hiring Jones “because he had a situation with CBCF and they could not have him working in the office as a result.”

In early March 2018, Jane Doe told Rushing that she had learned “more about her case involving Mr. Jones and CBCF” and was planning to go forward with legal action, according to the complaint. Jane Doe said she asked to speak with Jackson Lee, and Rushing agreed, but no meeting took place. On March 29, she said she was told she was being fired because of budget issues.

Jane Doe’s lawsuit describes times she said she spent driving Jackson Lee in her personal car she and alleges she was pressured by Jackson Lee and Rushing to get a new car after her car was damaged in an accident. When she was fired, she said that in addition to being told it was because of budget issues, that Rushing also told her, “It didn’t help that you lied about the car.” It was not immediately clear from court filings what that was a reference to.

Jane Doe alleges that the budget-related explanation was a pretext and that Jackson Lee retaliated against her for planning to take action against the CBCF related to the alleged rape.

Over the weekend:

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is refusing demands to step down as leader of the Congressional Black Caucus’ nonprofit arm amid claims she fired one of her congressional staffers over rape allegations.

Jackson Lee was told by the CBC Foundation’s board to resign during a lengthy call on Thursday night, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation. Jackson Lee resisted those demands, and the call abruptly ended as other board members were trying to figure out how to continue the conversation without the Texas Democrat.

Jackson Lee has also been pressured by leadership within the CBC to step down from her position with the foundation, according to one of the sources. The foundation’s board was expected to have another emergency call Friday night to assess the situation.

....

Following Jackson Lee’s refusal to step aside, at least one board member stepped down, and sources with knowledge of the situation say more are expected to follow if Lee remains. Cathy Hughes, a media executive and entrepreneur, resigned from the board, according to the two sources. Hughes, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment.

Wow.

This looks like a very serious situation.  Obviously, we don't know all the facts.  But some early questions are unavoidable.

 Among them:

• What was the nature of the alleged "budget issue" that caused Shelia Jackson Lee to fire Jane Doe?!?

• Why the heck would Sheila Jackson Lee hire someone with this much baggage in the first place?!?

• Did Shelia Jackson Lee ever inform the O'Rourke campaign about the accusations against Damien Jones?!?

That last question is especially relevant given that Damien Jones is accused of raping a young woman who was his direct professional subordinate.

The best case scenario is grotesque negligence mixed with an awfully big coincidence.  Not impossible...but the odds seem long.  Possibilities get worse from there.

-------

O'Rourke:

National conservative media outlets are trying to make this about O'Rourke.  That's a mistake.  While things could change, we believe Shelia Jackson Lee bears significantly more culpability than O'Rourke.  It was Lee's responsibility to inform O'Rourke, not vice versa.

Except...for Borris Miles.

During the campaign, we made a big deal out of the fact that O'Rourke held a campaign event with Borris Miles [Note: THIS Borris Miles].  We didn't remark upon it at the time, but Shelia Jackson Lee was the third elected official at that event.  Given what we've just learned about Damien Jones being the link between O'Rourke and Shelia Jackson Lee, to also include Borris Miles at that event seems...newly significant.

The Texas Observer has more:

At a block-walk event on Houston’s South Side earlier that day, Damien Jones, Beto’s political director for the Houston area, laid out the stakes. “Two years ago,” Jones pronounced in his red Chucks and a black-and-white “BETO” trucker hat, “many of us had many regrets about what happened — that we didn’t do enough. This is the time to leave it all on the field. We can’t have any regrets this time.”

O’Rourke has assembled perhaps the most impressive ground game of any statewide Democrat in a generation — and the campaign is trying to reach deep into black communities.

In other words, the O'Rourke campaign was trying to "reach deep into black communities" by hiring Damien Jones to work with Borris Friggin' Miles.

"Reach deep into" indeed.

-------

Other Harris County Democrats (especially Sylvester Turner):

As the de facto leader of the Democrats in Harris County, Mayor Turner could clean up this activity if he wanted.

Instead, from Friday night:

Earlier Today:

In other words, in light of what we learned last week, the de facto leader of the Democrats chose to attend 2 events with Shelia Jackson Lee (one of which also included Borris Miles).

Furthermore, consider that in the picture with O'Rourke shown above, Rodney Ellis is the third person in the photo.

So you've got Rodney Ellis hanging out with Damien Jones at the same time you've got Sylvester Turner doing events with Shelia Jackson Lee and Borris Miles.

With this much smoke, imagine the fire.

-------

Bottom Line: There seem to be an awfully high number of awfully big coincidences surrounding this story.  Most, though certainly not all, seem to surround Shelia Jackson Lee.  She's certainly the best place to start....

#atxcouncil: Frank Ward's Great Austin Holiday Adventure

"In all your ways acknowledge Him,
And He shall direct your paths."
Proverbs 3:6

From Frank Ward's Campaign:



Highlights:

• Greg Casar - "I just don't think that we are in the business of reducing congestion."

• Ann Kitchen - "That's not really our goal, to get rid of congestion."
• Note: It's not in the video, but in the original audio Jimmy Flannigan agrees with Kitchen.

• Ward - "Reducing congestion is not really their goal, you have got to be kidding me."

• Ward - "We have to do something about this traffic."

Bottom Line: Vote for Frank Ward if you value dissent and intellectual diversity.  Early voting runs through tonight (Friday) at 7pm.  Election Day Tuesday.

#atxcouncil: A RIDICULOUS Distraction....

"having a good conscience, that when they defame you as evildoers, those who revile your good conduct in Christ may be ashamed."
1 Peter 3:16

Ssssssssay what?!?

Ward Didn’t File Financial Disclosure,

a Possible Class B Misdemeanor

The article continues:

City Clerk Jannette Goodall is responsible for providing candidates with forms and instructions. To that end her office prepared a 360-page Candidate Packet (linked at the bottom of this story) for those who may run for mayor and City Council. The forms that candidates must use to file financial disclosures are provided in the packets. The packet is available in hard copy as well as a PDF.

Two disclosures are required:

The Statement of Financial Information (SFI) is required by Section 2-7-72 of the Austin City Code. The deadline for filing the SFI with the City Clerk’s Office was 4:45pm August 27, 2018.

The Personal Financial Statement (PFS) for local candidates and officials is required by Government Code Chapter 572. The Candidate Packet provides a link to a Texas Ethics Commission Instruction Guide for completing Form PFS. The deadline for filing a PFS with the City Clerk’s Office was September 10, 2018.

....

Ward said he thought the SFI he had filed in January satisfied all requirements and he had not understood the other reporting requirement.

“I support your mission of transparency,” he said.

In a text message November 29, Ward said, “I’m also going to find out why I wasn’t alerted to it. When I filed all my paperwork to run, I confirmed at the time that I had filed the necessary paperwork and don’t recall being told anything else was to be submitted...otherwise, I would have filed additional paperwork at that time.”

PUH-LEEZE.  This is a paperwork error.   Frank Ward is addressing it.  All other speculation is trial by innuendo.

But, why now?!?

According to Democratic sources, a poll was conducted last weekend.  It showed Frank Ward leading his opponent 44-40.  Frank Ward's message of intellectual diversity and respect for taxpayers clearly resonates.

Which means Frank Ward's opponents need to change the subject.

Voila, scandal!!!

Bottom Line: Frank Ward is the only voice of dissent.  He's the only candidate who respects taxpayers.  Frank Ward is the only candidate who supports rational solutions to housing costs and traffic.  But why would Frank Ward's opponents want to discuss property taxes, housing costs, and traffic when there are scandals to manufacture?!?