#TXSEN: Cornyn, meanwhile, WHINES about swear words

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

LOL:

New @JohnCornyn spot hits @mjhegar for cursing on the campaign trail: https://t.co/VkA6XKJO2t #TXSEN

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 22, 2020

What a...ducking...gimp.

Does John Cornyn actually think anyone cares?!?

Cuz' they don't.

This is nothing new. When Hegar first entered this race, Cornyn's first attack was over modestly PG-13 level language. We addressed the lameness of that strategy at the time. There's nothing we can add today to what we've already said.

Bottom Line:  Cornyn's almost certainly fine.  Hegar's positions on the issues assure that.  Nevertheless, for Cornyn to castigate his opponent for having a personality highlights his own lack thereof.

#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:

A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”

We're of two minds about this:

• Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
• Note: This is the likely explanation.

** OR **

• They know something the rest of us don't.
• Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.

Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Hegar (Completely Accurately) Kicks Cornyn in Teeth

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;

But by a man of understanding and knowledge Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Back in January, we sat down to analyze a potential general election between MJ Hegar and John Cornyn. It turned into a lot of work, so we never finished it. With that field now set, maybe it makes sense to loop back. We'll see.

But the TL,DR version is that MJ Hegar is a **VERY** good candidate. And John Cornyn's record is completely indefensible. And that's not a good place for any three term incumbent.

In her opening salvo of the general election, Hegar illustrates why:

Ignore the first minute. It's the type of self-promoting fluff you see from any politician. For our purposes, what matters is her takedown of Cornyn in minute two.

Specifically, Hegar makes three claims:

• Cornyn's poll numbers suck.

• Cornyn's made several asinine comments about COVID (which she plays in all of their excruciating detail).

• In response to Cornyn's gaffes: "That's ridiculous."

Here's the thing: All three of those claims are accurate.

[Note: See here and here.]

Furthermore, that's just the past few months.  John Cornyn has three terms worth of baggage.  If Hegar can exploit it....

Bottom Line: This race...could get interesting.

Runoff Elections 2020: What 2 Watch 4

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

With runoff elections today, here are some things on which to keep an eye. We don't claim this list is comprehensive. Nevertheless, it's what we'll be watching for.

Democrats:

• U.S. Senate -- We've been meaning to do a longer writeup on this topic for about six months, but haven't gotten around to it.  Nevertheless, MJ Hegar is, easily and by far, the most compelling Democrat to run for statewide office in at least a decade.  Royce West, by contrast, is a rather middling state senator.
  
  Cornyn's 100% safe against West. He's probably about 85% safe against Hegar. In the event, however, that Donald Trump and Greg Abbott continue to run the national/statewide environment into the ground, do NOT underestimate her.

• Travis County County/District Attorney -- While they aren't related, Delia and Jose Garza are running for those respective criminal justice positions on essentially pro-criminal platforms.  Woe unto all of us if either of them wins. Both are favorites.

• Dutton/Lucio -- Two of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature face unexpected runoffs.  Both seem likely to win comfortably...but we would have said that in the first round.  Major implications for next session if either falls short.

Republicans:

• Abbott's coattails -- Honestly, this is the only GOP question that matters right now.  Abbott's made a big show out of endorsing in five races.  In two others he's made endorsements that are essentially gimmes.
  
  Abbott really needs to run the table; if he loses more than one of these races, it's a **MAJOR** embarrassment.

• HD-60 (Francis/Rogers):  Foremost among races where Greg Abbott has run his mouth is this open seat race for an otherwise obscure state rep seat west of Ft. Worth.  Jon Francis is the consensus conservative candidate.  Abbott recently declared war on Francis' family.
  
  Ted Cruz, by contrast, has endorsed Francis.
  
  Abbott really needs his candidate (Glen Rodgers) to clear 60%.

• Morrow's race: Barring a (richly deserved) act of Divine retribution, the latest season of "Robert Morrow torments the Texas GOP" likely ends tonight.
  
  Nevertheless, it's been (really, really, really) funny.
  
  The final margin will still be interesting. Had the GOP handled this situation even remotely competently, Morrow wouldn't clear 10%. If Morrow gets north of 30%, that's an embarrassment for the GOP, no matter how they try to spin it.

Again, this list isn't comprehensive.

[Note: Texas Scorecard has an analysis of both parties Congressional runoffs here.]

Bottom Line: The macro-narratives are "can the Dems seize an opportunity (for once)" vs. "can the GOP avoid utterly, totally, and completely humiliating themselves (all over again)."  We don't pretend to know the answer.  Stay tuned.

Cornyn, Schumer, and an EPIC self own

"Wise people store up knowledge,
But the mouth of the foolish is near destruction."
Proverbs 10:14

ICYMI, earlier this week national Democrats waded into the U.S. Senate primary:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is endorsing MJ Hegar in the crowded primary to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

This is a completely boring, irrelevant, and predictable announcement.  Of course national Democrats think Hegar is the strongest candidate.  That's been obvious for months to anyone with half a brain.

Nevertheless:

Texans knew from day one that Hollywood Hegar was the handpicked candidate of Chuck Schumer.

We get it: Chuck Schumer is bad.  That's not wrong.  It's a 2004 era argument.  Just because the playbook is old, however, does not mean the underlying assertion is incorrect.

But then this happened:



Less than a week after they wave the "Chuck Schumer" bloody shirt, Chuck Schumer votes against a spending bill that John Cornyn votes for.

It's kinda classic.

Bottom Line: When actions and words contradict, trust actions.

#TXLEGE, #TXSEN: Royce West, Borris Miles, and a test of oppo research

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Note: Just for fun, imagine the reaction if any Republican candidate in a similar situation had secured an endorsement from Charles Schwertner.] 

Texas Tribune, Thursday:

[Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Royce] West has suggested he is optimistic that he can be more than just a Dallas-centric candidate by tapping into his legislative relationships throughout the state. He wasted little time proving that after his announcement as he earned endorsements from state Sens. Carol Alvarado and Borris Miles, both from Houston. And state Sens. Jose Menendez of San Antonio and Jose Rodriguez of El Paso attended the announcement itself.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

We remarked shortly thereafter:



It's now been two full days, and nobody has commented.

In case you've forgotten why an endorsement from Borris frickin' Miles might be considered a big deal:

Lauren*, a Texas legislative intern, was standing underneath the bright blue-and-red neon sign of The Continental Club, a famed Austin bar frequented by schmoozing politicians, lobbyists, and reporters.

That week in May 2013 was filled to the brim with end-of-session (“sine die”) parties, and Lauren was with a group of other interns on South Congress when Democratic state Rep. Borris Miles pulled up.

According to Lauren, Miles leaned out of the carriage he was riding in and pulled out a large roll of money. He handed “maybe $500” to an intern and then looked at Lauren.

“You know how you have the roll of hundreds that you see on TV? It was like that,” Lauren told The Daily Beast.

“I said, ‘Hi Representative, how are you?’ Then he slowly looked me up and down, counted out more money, reached out his hand and said, ‘Bitch, you want to fuck with me tonight?’

“I said ‘No, thank you’ and physically stepped back,” Lauren recalled. “I didn’t want to be rude to him. I remember his intern pacifying him and saying, ‘It’s time to go.’

“Everyone was just shocked that he said that—that he cussed at me and that he was offering me money. It was outrageous,” she continued. “I just remember thinking, ‘I need to go, and I need to not be here anymore.’”

And this:

One time, Chris said, he “witnessed [Miles] catcalling women in Downtown Austin on the way back from a Spurs game, and there had to have been at least 15 or 16 other members that were there because it was a member event.”

The Spurs had played the Lakers that April, and the lawmakers went together to San Antonio to watch one of the games. “As we’re driving back towards the W, he’s hanging out of the open door of the bus and shouting at women,” said Chris.

Chris could not recall the catcalls specifically but said, “It was not something that I would want shouted at anyone.”

Chris’ chief of staff confirmed to The Daily Beast that he heard about the alleged catcalling the next morning.

And this:

Ben*, a former staffer who recently worked in the Capitol and “spent a lot of time with Miles,” said he witnessed the then-state representative “forcibly kiss” at least one woman at the W Hotel.

“He offered to buy her a drink, kept trying to kiss her, and she kept trying to push him away,” said Ben. “He kept laughing about it.

“It was so creepy, and he had this big smile,” said Ben. “Borris loves the W Hotel, and he has a tendency to force himself upon women at bars and kiss them or grope them. He’ll tell them that he is a higher elected official than he actually is.”

....

“He also has a tendency to call women out of their name when they turn him down,” he said. “‘Bitch,’ ‘ho,’ ‘whore.’ He doesn’t like being told ‘no.’

And this:

When Heather* first covered the Texas Legislature as a journalist in 2011, she was repeatedly targeted by Miles, she told The Daily Beast in a story published last month.

Late one night when the legislature was in session, Heather was reporting on HB 400, which would have scrapped Texas’ law mandating class size ratio. Miles famously used a point of order to defeat the bill, landing him the title of Star of the 2011 Legislative Session by the Texas Classroom Teachers Association.

Heather said she had been trying to get details about the bill negotiations, when that night, around midnight, Miles cornered her in a hallway and forcibly kissed her outside the House chamber.

“It happened quickly,” Heather said, noting that Miles laughed afterward. “I think he thought it was hilarious.”

“He’d said several times already, ‘If you go out to dinner with me, I’d be happy to give you the details,’ and I’d sort of laugh it off but it was weird and obviously gross.”

You can read the full report here.

So, yeah, that guy made an endorsement in the current U.S. Senate race.

Yet neither MJ Hegar nor John Cornyn seem to care.

Odd.

Obviously, this is a longstanding beef for this author.

Last election cycle, we discovered that Beto O'Rourke likewise did a campaign event with Borris Miles.  In addition to writing a blog post, we also passed that information along to both the Cruz campaign and the RPT chairman.  Unfortunately, neither did anything with that information.

This time around, the difference is that this author doesn't particularly care who wins the U.S. Senate race.  So we're not going to tell any campaigns.  But we mentioned them by name, so they'll get the Google alerts.

Bottom Line: Any campaign that allows an opponent to get away with touting an endorsement from someone with Borris Miles' "alleged" record is completely incompetent and deserves to lose....

Cornyn's poll ##'s suck

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Yowza:

2020 Texas Senate GE:
John Cornyn (R-inc) 29%
M.J. Hegar (D) 12%
Someone else 16%
Unsure 44%@EmersonPolling 4/25-28https://t.co/eln98hcWPX #TXsen

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) April 30, 2019

Observations:

• That 16% for "someone else" are the people who would typically vote Republican, but won't vote for Cornyn.

• For a three term incumbent to be at 44% "Unsure" suggests...a lot of room to fall.

But, hey, at least John Cornyn wants to protect us from the scourge of C-list actors with potty mouths.

Bottom Line There really ought to be a conversation about John Cornyn's general election viability before it's too late....

The Fuddiest of Duddies

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

[Personal Note: We're travelling out of state this weekend; Cahnman's Musings will resume publishing on Tuesday.]

We've already said our piece about M.J. Hegar getting into the U.S. Senate race but, of course, John Cornyn has to make the situation worse:

Hollywood Hegar supporter and video guest star, Patton Oswalt, has tweeted some offensive comments over the years, reply A or B to let us know which one is more offensive to you: pic.twitter.com/gXgPvstK6V

— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) April 23, 2019

This is pathetic.

Seriously, of all the reasons to not vote for a Democrat, the best you could come up with is that she's friends with some Hollywood C-lister with an affinity for adult language?!?

Seriously?!?

It gets better:

First, it was @PattonOswalt, now it’s @Rosie. There’s a profane trend among #HollywoodHegar’s biggest backers, and they’re all taking aim at @RealDonaldTrump and our conservative values. pic.twitter.com/ILyodLgVhJ

— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) April 24, 2019

Oooh. Big John wants to pick a fight with Rosie O'Donell!!! He must be a real tough guy!!!

The whole "Team Cornyn" twitter feed is a hot mess of embarrassingly bad faux offense; you can see it for yourself here.

It's not often that we cite Twitter randos, but it's hard to beat this:

absolutely losing my mind imagining one of cornyn’s 23 y/o interns being forced to search through patton’s tweets for naughty words then censoring them with emojis so their boss’ fanbase of aging segregationists don’t make a mess in their adult diapers https://t.co/LgJWypuUYJ

— waterslide enthusiast (@KrangTNelson) April 23, 2019

This plays into every stereotype about Republicans.

But it's even funnier to hear John Cornyn complain about grown up language when you consider this:

But John Cornyn is totes offended by a few PG-13 comments.

Bottom Line: There are reasons to hold your nose and vote for Cornyn, but if this is the type of campaign he intends to run, those reasons aren't strong enough.

The Luckiest Man in Texas (for now)

"I returned and saw under the sun that—

The race is not to the swift,
Nor the battle to the strong,
Nor bread to the wise,
Nor riches to men of understanding,
Nor favor to men of skill;
But time and chance happen to them all.
Ecclesiastes 9:11

Wasn't expecting her to pull the trigger:



M.J. Hegar in a U.S. Senate race is an interesting dynamic.  How it play out remains to be seen.  But the down ballot implication is obvious.

Nobody is happier about this decision than John Carter.

In case you forgot:

Throughout last fall's campaign, we argued (on multiple occasions) that Carter would be safe in a midterm, but that a presidential cycle was a different story.  That being said, even we didn't think Carter would lose WillCo.  We still think Carter's a terrible candidate.

John Carter is the Congressional equivalent of Wonder Bread: Old, White, and bleached of nutritional value.



Yet, the woman who nearly took him out last time decides to run for something else.

-------

That being said, the filing deadline isn't for 8 months; it wouldn't surprise us to see M.J. Hegar switch races after Labor Day.

-------

Bottom Line: John Carter is a pretty worthless congressman.  John Carter is a reliably cheap date for plutocracy; the type of dullard too arrogant to comprehend his own stupidity.  If Karl Rove and used dish soap had a baby, it would be John Carter.  That being said, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good (or smart) (or personable) (or interesting).