Monday, May 19, 2014

Paxton's Lead Grows to 17%

"May the Lord repay every man for his righteousness and his faithfulness; for the Lord delivered you into my hand today, but I would not stretch out my hand against the Lord’s anointed."
1 Samuel 26:23

Team Paxton released a new poll today:
(McKinney, Texas) - Today the Ken Paxton Campaign released a poll showing Paxton now has a 17 point lead in the race for Attorney General, representing a widening gap over Dan Branch from the previous poll. Previously, Paxton led Dan Branch 38%-27%, with the remainder undecided. Now, Paxton’s lead has grown to 44%-27% – a net gain of six points.

The poll was conducted May 14-15 by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies. Bolger is the only pollster to be a three time winner of the “Republican Pollster of the Year” award from the American Association of Political Consultants, winning the prestigious award for his work in 2002, 2009, and 2012.


Key Findings:

1. Despite Dan Branch’s negative attacks, Ken Paxton’s double digit lead has widened in the race for Attorney General in the last week.

A week ago, Paxton led Dan Branch 38%-27%, with the remainder undecided, which was statistically the same as his twelve point primary win. Now, Paxton’s lead has grown to 44%-27% – a net gain of six points.

2. Paxton’s lead has grown among key groups in the GOP primary. Among groups that are high propensity turnout voters in Republican primaries: 

  • Paxton’s lead grows to 33 points among Tea Party supporters. Among the 41% of run-off voters who are strongly favorable to the Tea Party, Paxton leads 53%-20%.

  • Among the 61% of the voters who are very conservative, Paxton has a 26 point lead – 49%-23% over Branch.

  • Strong supporters of the NRA back Paxton 47%-26%.

Also important:

  • Paxton leads throughout the state. He leads 47%-28% in the Dallas DMA, and 48%-25% in Houston. In addition, he also leads in Austin, San Antonio, and the combined smaller markets through the East/South and West/South of the state.

  • Among the 60% of voters who have heard of both candidates, Paxton leads 49%-30%.

The Bottom Line:

With early voting beginning Monday, Paxton’s lead continues to grow while Branch remains mired at 27%. Republican primary run-off voters prefer conservative candidates. Paxton is a real deal conservative, while Branch’s record cost him the primary win and will cost him the nomination.

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