Monday, August 24, 2020

#TXLEGE: Shelley Luther is Abbott's worst nightmare

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

That was quick:

To understand the significance of Dave Carney's Abbott's order, you need to interpret it in the context of Shelley Luther's announcement this past weekend:
There is a LOT to unpack here. We'll have to go through it quickly. But the TL,DR version is that Greg Abbott just exposed the weakness of his hand.

[Note: Drew Springer is also running (as we predicted).  Plenty on him at the appropriate time.  For now, however, just know that Springer's who Dave Carney Abbott wants in this seat.]


The Game Abbott thinks he's playing:

On paper, and under 'normal' circumstances, a quick election favors the professional politician.   They have a campaign team.   They don't have to build name id.   Lobbyists will give them money.

In this case, Drew Springer is the professional politician who Dave Carney's Greg Abbott's trying to help.

Like it or not, under 'normal' circumstances, there's a certain logic to that thinking.

Unfortunately for Dave Carney Greg Abbott and Drew Springer, we're not in normal circumstances.


Abbott's blunder:

Dave Carney's Abbott's logic has two major flaws:
  • Abbott's not particularly popular at the moment.
  • Shelley Luther probably has just as much, if not more, name ID than Drew Springer.
Thus, for as much as Dave Carney Abbott thinks he's helping Springer, the quick turnaround probably benefits Shelley Luther.

If you're Dave Carney Greg Abbott, and you're being smart, you want COVID (and the ensuing restrictions) as far in the rear view mirrior as possible by the time this election is held. If we're coming out of the season, it's entirely conceivable that you could frame this election as being about the future rather than the past. By holding the election next month, however, we remain in the current season and what could have been the past remains the present.


Shelley Luther:

We've seen a number of knowledgeable people bring up the fact that she's new. Thus, we don't know much about her. That's a valid point.

However, we do know a few things:
  • She's personable.
  • She's well spoken.
  • She's NORMAL.
  • All of which is to say, that it looks like she'd be a really good candidate.
  • Greg Abbott hates her guts.
  • In terms of her performance in the event she's elected, who knows?!?  But those who've worked with her up to this point seem to think highly of her.  Considering that her only declared opponent is known to be bad, we'll take the unknown.

If there's someone with a longer, and more verifiable, conservative record...they have a week to step up.

Unless that happens, however, a one-on-one between Shelley Luther and Drew Springer is a VERY easy call.


Drew Springer:

Moron that guy at the appropriate time, but you can teach yourself about his record here.

Also, item 5 here tells you what you need to know about Springer's vindictive streak (see also here).

Finally, this one was recent and obnoxious.


Then there's this:


Jim Murphy, for those who are new, is this guy.


Bottom Line: This could be a lot of fun.

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