#TXLEGE, #SD30: Luther clearly living rent-free in Springer's head

"Blessed be God,
Who has not turned away my prayer,
Nor His mercy from me!"
Psalm 66:20

With bill filing now underway, Drew Springer has used his house seat to file two pieces of legislation related to the Governor's emergency powers.  HB 173 would create a board to oversee any emergency declarations.  HJR 15 is a constitutional amendment that would make a special session mandatory for any emergency that lasts longer than 21 days.

Reading the legislation, our first impression is how weak they are. HB 173 is a toothless joke that instituionalizes the rubber stamp treatment Abbott has gotten during COVID. The consituional amendment, while watered down, might be a decent shell bill to amend on the floor. But that's about all it's good for.

Clearly, these are acts taxpayer funded electioneering for Springer's senate campaign. File a bill that sounds great, but that doesn't actually do anything. It's an old trick. But at least you can talk about on the campaign trail.

While it's not surprising to see Springer deploy this tactic, the subject is noteworthy.

It's not a secret that challenging the Governor's COVID orders was why Shelley Luther became a thing. Springer most likely has polling data that says he needs to neutalize that advantage. So he'll file this bill, and claim to be "more effective."

Shelly Luther shouldn't have any of it. Every time Springer tries to play the "effective" card, she should point out Springer's bill doesn't do anything. Rinse, lather, repeat.

Bottom Line: They don't try to undermine your strongest issue if they're not afraid of you.

#TXLEGE/#SD 30: Springer Likely to move LEFT in runoff

"Therefore by their fruits you will know them."
Matthew 7:20

That answers that question:

Overall, solid showing for Luther. Weak performance for Springer. When you're an incumbent state rep, you should at least score in the mid-40's.

Moving forward, however, Springer's strategy is obvious: Pick up the 21% who voted for the Democrat. Springer's 32% + The Democrat's 21% = 53%. Given that there's basically zero chance Democrats will vote for Luther, it's basic arithmatic.

The runoff will probably look a lot like the 2014 U.S. Senate runoff in Mississippi.

If you're Shelley Luther...buckle up...cuz' you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Bottom Line: Democrats are the largest free agent block of voters in the runoff, and they only have one place to go.

#TXLEGE/#SD30 Special: Springer's smear campaign is actually good preparation for Luther

"You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor."
Exodus 20:16

In case you thought Drew Springer's campaign couldn't go any lower, this is what they did yesterday:

Who posts a picture of a woman with her father and then writes “Who is she sleeping with this month?” I hope that every...

Posted by Tim Georgeff on Friday, September 25, 2020

Obviously, the words "disgraceful" and "revolting" come to mind. We could use stronger language. But we don't want to get the Facebook messages from some of y'all Baptist types.

That being said, the more we think about it, the more we're drawn to another conculsion. It's probably good for Shelley Luther to be subjected to this level of negativity this early in the process. Because this is who the powers that be in this state are, and this is what they do.

If you're Shelley Luther, please understand: The campaign is the easy part. If you think it's bad now, just wait until session. It's this level of abusiveness, except that you're in close physical proximity to your abusers. It really is that sleazy.

We've always thought that Shelley Luther was a (very) good candidate. Our biggest concern was whether or not she's prepared for just how toxic the capital culture actually is in reality. In that vein, this past week is a pretty good sample. But it's only going to get worse if she wins.

Bottom Line: For as grotesque as it might be, it's actually a really good sample of what she's up against.

#TXLEGE/#SD30: Springer really MUST be losing

"Therefore receive one another, just as Christ also received us, to the glory of God."
Romans 15:7

[UPDATE: Apparently Springer posted this to twitter after this blog post went live.]

Well...this is silly:

 Shelley Luther sang a different tune about forced COVID-19 shutdowns before she realized she could use it for her...

Posted by Drew Springer on Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Take a look at the date on that Facebook post: March 16th.

Of course, Shelley Luther didn't reopen her salon until April 24.

Which almost suggests that, Shelly Luther went along with the shutdowns for several weeks (over a month). Futhermore, just maybe, she **MIGHT** have conculded during that time that the costs of the lockdowns far exceeded the alleged benefits of reducing COVID. Imagine that.

But all of the above is obvious. What's less obvious is why Springer would launch such an easily disproveable attack. It's impossible to know for sure, but history and logic suggest that Springer's polling must be TERRIBLE. Like, not even making the runoff terrible.

Bottom Line: Only in the mind of establishment politicians and their assorted sycophants could this have POSSIBLY been considered a good idea.

#TXLEGE/#SD30 Special: Fallon's Tantrum Against Luther

"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravenous wolves."
Matthew 7:15

We're not sure when this happened, but at some point in the past few days Pat Fallon got up in Shelley Luther's grill:

Thoughts:

• Clearly, Fallon's rattled.

• Fallon's body language, and constant interruptions, is never a good look for a man when talking with a woman.
• It's called browbeating.
• Even if that wasn't Fallon's intent, that's sure as heck what it looks like.

• That being said, the degree to which Luther maintains her poise is impressive.

• Fallon: "So you need to go to jail to be elected, that's your standard."
• No, Pat, that's not what she said.

• Fallon: "I'm 5% in on your race, do you want me to go all in?!?"
• OK, jock boy.
• If Fallon is acting like this much a buffoon at 5%, we'd love to see 100% buffonery.

• Fallon: "Do you understand what sarcasm is?!?"
• Translation: My attempt at gaslighting failed, so now I'm going to retreat by claiming I was never serious to begin with.
• Dear Dudes: We don't know who needs to hear this (besides Pat Fallon), but mansplaining your alleged use of "sarcasm" to a woman is bad.

• Fallon might want to reread this interview with Coach Holtz.

Bottom Line: Sometimes reactions tell you more than the initial action.

#TXLEGE, #SD30 Special: Fallon's slight of hand

"Now the serpent was more cunning than any beast of the field which the Lord God had made. And he said to the woman, “Has God indeed said, ‘You shall not eat of every tree of the garden’?”
Genesis 3:1

Pat Fallon speaking on behalf of Drew Springer:

First things first...wow Pat seems agitated.   Springer's polling must suuuuck.   Just a suspicion.

That being said, Fallon makes several claims about Springer's record that are worth addressing:

• "Voted against the budget"/"Defeated Wendy Davis to pass a pro-life bill" - Fallon's not wrong.  But both of these things happened in 2013.  It's telling that Drew Springer's biggest accomplishments as a legislator are nearly a decade old.
  
  Speaking of budgets, it's certainly the case that Drew Springer voted against the budget in 2013.  But the budget in 2019 was every bit as bad as the budget in 2013.  And both Drew Springer AND Pat Fallon voted for the budget in 2019.
  
  
• Sanctuary Cities - Springer voted for the bill.  But that bill didn't really do much.  It's also worth pointing out that, practically speaking, Austin gutted what little that bill actually did through clever lawyering.

• Property Taxes - Springer voted for the bill in 2019, but he was one of the primary villains killing it behind the scenes two years earlier.

Fallon also takes a dig at Shelley Luther for having not voted in primaries.   What a dumb, irrelevant, argument to make.  The whole reason why Shelley Luther became a thing in the first place didn't emerge until five months ago.

More of the same.

Bottom Line: Fallon wasn't necessarily 'lying,' but he was absolutely framing half-truths in the most self-serving way possible.

#TXLEGE: Luther's first Senate candidate, in AGES, to endorse Constitutional Carry

"Every one of the builders had his sword girded at his side as he built. And the one who sounded the trumpet was beside me."
Nehemiah 4:18

This is certainly interesting:

Luther also said she’d work to uphold Texans’ right to bear arms. Texas Gun Rights, which is the “largest ‘No Compromise’ gun rights group,” according to its website, endorsed her candidacy on Thursday.

“I definitely agree that Texans have the Second Amendment right to protect themselves; I agree with Constitutional carry,” Luther said. “If Texans have the legal authority to purchase a gun, then they should have the legal authority to carry it wherever they go.”

Of course, what makes this notable is that nobody has even **FILED** this bill the past two sessions. To say nothing of trying to pass it. We're just talking about filing.

Rumor has always been that about half of the Republican caucus in the Texas Senate doesn't support it (*). Thus, they really, really don't want to vote on it. We can't prove it, but that rumor is certainly consistent with their behavior.

For Shelley Luther to take this poisition, especialy when her primary opponent is this guy, is HIGHLY noteworthy.

Bottom Line: It's impossible to know how this will play out in advance, but these comments have to be considered a good sign.

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* - FWIW, we were told that 8 Republican Senators were no votes in 2017.

#TXLEGE: Luther starts running, Abbott starts caving

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption,
but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Shot:

Chaser:

I said last month that Texas wouldn’t have anymore lockdowns—despite demands from mayors & county judges insisting on lockdowns.

Since my last orders in July, Covid numbers have declined—most importantly hospitalizations.

I hope to provide updates next week about next steps. https://t.co/EmmankcMMO

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) September 1, 2020

These two events are linked.

Bottom Line: It's amazing how quickly policy starts changing when someone emerges who's better at your core political strategy than you are.

#TXLEGE: Luther neutralizes Abbott's entire political playbook

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

This happened on Saturday:

Due to formatting issues [Note to FoxNews.com: Y'all might want to do something about those pop-ups], we can't embed the video.  You can click through the link above.  That being said, most of what Luther says in the interview is obvious.

What's less obvious, however, is more noteworthy: The outlet where Luther gives said interview.

At this point, it seems that Shelley Luther is good copy for Fox News.  She probably generates ratings.   They certainly seem to like putting her on the air.

That is bad news for Greg Abbott.

For several years, Greg Abbott's political strategy has been obvious.  Make bombastic statements on Fox News (on issues where his office has no jurisdiction) while governing like the Karl Rove recruit he's always been.   It's generally tended to work for him, although some cracks have emerged in recent months.

Shelley Luther, however, out Fox News's Abbott.  In so doing, she illuminates how Abbott actually GOVERNS as opposed to the image Abbott wants to project.  Abbott don't like that.

Bottom Line: It's an open question how long this dynamic continues, but it ain't gonna be plesant for any incumbent as long as it does.

#TXLEGE: Is Abbott's Special Election Gambit Even Legal?!? (not that he cares)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

We said our piece about the SD-30 special election yesterday.  We'll have more to say in the coming days.  It's the most interesting thing that has happened in ages.

Before we get too far on this journey, however, Michael Quinn Sullivan raises a really good point:

So @FallonForTexas isn’t resigning from #TxLege office until Jan 2021... But @GregAbbott_TX has decided he has the power to declare a special election despite the seat not being empty. This seems to imply @GovAbbott could call a special election for any seat, at any time? Wow...

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

This a complete about-face for @GregAbbott_TX, who previously said he would not call special elections until seats were actually vacant. You know... because they aren’t vacant.

And FWIW, there is ZERO chance #TxLege SD30 would flip to the Democrats.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

This is @GovAbbott helping #Rep. @DrewSpringer get a free pass running for SD30, since he’s on the ballot for state rep.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

As it turns out, @GregAbbott_TX is using the CORONAVIRUS as an excuse for the rapid-fire #TxLege SD30 special election. Why? He has refused to call a special session of the Legislature, opting instead to rule as our semi-benevolent monarch unbound by law.

— Michael Quinn Sullivan (@MQSullivan) August 24, 2020

We don't know what the letter of the Texas election code says. That's a lawyer question. At a minimum, however, calling a special election for a seat that's not yet vacant seems to violate the spirit of the law.

Not that Greg Abbott cares about that.

Bottom Line: This is simply the latest in the long line of abuses and usurpations, but it's nevertheless a good question.

#TXLEGE: Shelley Luther is Abbott's worst nightmare

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

That was quick:

Inbox: @GovAbbott sets special election date for #SD30 on 9/29 #txlege pic.twitter.com/pBQ8UKx4Ew

— Brandon Waltens (@bwaltens) August 23, 2020

To understand the significance of Dave Carney's Abbott's order, you need to interpret it in the context of Shelley Luther's announcement this past weekend:

Backing the Blue in Denton County pic.twitter.com/r7wfgPIKeu

— Shelley Luther (@ShelleyLuther) August 22, 2020

There is a LOT to unpack here. We'll have to go through it quickly. But the TL,DR version is that Greg Abbott just exposed the weakness of his hand.

[Note: Drew Springer is also running (as we predicted).  Plenty on him at the appropriate time.  For now, however, just know that Springer's who Dave Carney Abbott wants in this seat.]

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The Game Abbott thinks he's playing:

On paper, and under 'normal' circumstances, a quick election favors the professional politician.   They have a campaign team.   They don't have to build name id.   Lobbyists will give them money.

In this case, Drew Springer is the professional politician who Dave Carney's Greg Abbott's trying to help.

Like it or not, under 'normal' circumstances, there's a certain logic to that thinking.

Unfortunately for Dave Carney Greg Abbott and Drew Springer, we're not in normal circumstances.

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Abbott's blunder:

Dave Carney's Abbott's logic has two major flaws:

• Abbott's not particularly popular at the moment.

• Shelley Luther probably has just as much, if not more, name ID than Drew Springer.

Thus, for as much as Dave Carney Abbott thinks he's helping Springer, the quick turnaround probably benefits Shelley Luther.

If you're Dave Carney Greg Abbott, and you're being smart, you want COVID (and the ensuing restrictions) as far in the rear view mirrior as possible by the time this election is held. If we're coming out of the season, it's entirely conceivable that you could frame this election as being about the future rather than the past. By holding the election next month, however, we remain in the current season and what could have been the past remains the present.

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Shelley Luther:

We've seen a number of knowledgeable people bring up the fact that she's new. Thus, we don't know much about her. That's a valid point.

However, we do know a few things:

• She's personable.

• She's well spoken.

• She's NORMAL.

• All of which is to say, that it looks like she'd be a really good candidate.

• Greg Abbott hates her guts.

• In terms of her performance in the event she's elected, who knows?!?  But those who've worked with her up to this point seem to think highly of her.  Considering that her only declared opponent is known to be bad, we'll take the unknown.

If there's someone with a longer, and more verifiable, conservative record...they have a week to step up.

Unless that happens, however, a one-on-one between Shelley Luther and Drew Springer is a VERY easy call.

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Drew Springer:

Moron that guy at the appropriate time, but you can teach yourself about his record here.

Also, item 5 here tells you what you need to know about Springer's vindictive streak (see also here).

Finally, this one was recent and obnoxious.

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Then there's this:

LOL:

I served on W&M 2 sessions with Chairman @JimMurphy133 and its an honor to have his endorsement for #SD30. #txlege pic.twitter.com/LH6dB15eyS

— Drew Springer (@DrewSpringer) August 24, 2020

Jim Murphy, for those who are new, is this guy.

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Bottom Line: This could be a lot of fun.

Elected Judges are the ONLY reason Shelley Luther isn't still in Jail

"Then I commanded your judges at that time, saying, ‘Hear the cases between your brethren, and judge righteously between a man and his brother or the stranger who is with him.' "
Deuteronomy 1:16

Last week SCOTX ordered Shelley Luther released. Obviously. Since then, however, several folks have made an important observation to us.

The only reason why Shelley Luther isn't still sitting in jail in Dallas county is because the Justice of the Texas Supreme Court have to face the voters.

This is important because there's been a lot of talk about changing the way Texas selects judges:

This summer, Gov. Greg Abbott signed a law creating a commission to study the issue — signaling that the GOP-led Legislature could overhaul the system as soon as 2021. That move comes after Democrats killed a sweeping reform proposal that Abbott had quietly backed.

In Texas, one of just a few states that maintains a system of partisan judicial selection all the way up through its high courts, judges are at the mercy of the political winds. They are required to run as partisans but expected to rule impartially. They are forced to raise money from the same lawyers who will appear before them in court. And in their down-ballot, low-information races, their fates tend to track with the candidates at the top of the ticket.

Any system of appointed and/or allegedly "non-partisan" judicial selection would inevitably be dominated by legal insiders.  There are any number of reasons why you don't want that.  In a case like Shelley Luther's, however, there's no way that sort of legal insider wouldn't side with the government.

Bottom Line: Voters are a highly imperfect check on the judiciary.  But they are a check.  Last week's SCOTX ruling was a tangible example of how that works.

Direct Results of Dickey's Candidate Recruitment Effort

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

We wrote about Jessica Voyce Lewis, the GOP candidate running against the judge that imprisoned Shelley Luther, on Wednesday.  As we explained in the original post, we looked into that race on a hunch.  It just so happened to be the case that that hunch panned out.

Things got more interesting, however, when we saw this Facebook post from James Dickey:



We spoke with a knowledgeable source today.  Except for the fact that this effort began in January 2019, there isn't much to add.  Dickey's post pretty much speaks for itself.ad

Back in January, we observed that RPT's candidate recruitment efforts this cycle were actually pretty good.  That doesn't excuse the chronic underperformance of 98%(+) of the GOP's elected officials.  But, in terms of things RPT can actually control, that level of candidate recruitment is pretty spectacular.

This random judicial race, which wasn't on anybody's radar screen last year (or even last week) is a tangible example of that effort bearing fruit.

Bottom Line: Sometimes incumbents really do step in it.  When that happens, it helps to have an opponent on the ballot.  Kudos to those who had the foresight in this instance.

Abbott's Continuing, Contorted, Game of Illegal, Unilateral, Whack-A-Mole

"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

Soo...this happened:

BREAKING: @GovAbbott modifies executive order to eliminate jail time as punishment in response to calls to free Shelley Luther #txlege pic.twitter.com/yuBJrQam7q

— Brandon Waltens (@bwaltens) May 7, 2020

First things first, notice the use of the words "if," "may," and "should."  That tells you what you need to know about the enforceability of this so-called "order."  Abbott's basically channeling his inner Hans Blix.

 Nevertheless, between Abbott's posturing and SCOTX's (actual, legally enforceable) order, Shelley Luther is probably gonna be fine.  Likewise, the two ladies in South Texas.  From a practical perspective, the final outcome was reasonably unterrible.

But let's not pretend the core issue has been solved.  The process that led to this place remains in place.  There's every reason to expect future abuses.

To recall that process:

• Greg Abbott put lobbyists and campaign contributors in charge of the state's "re-opening."
  
  
• Note: It's not going to be out for awhile, but Abbott's July 15 campaign finance report is going to be very interesting.

• Following the advice of those afore mentioned lobbyists and campaign contributors "the experts," Greg Abbott issued an arbitrary, vague, order.

• Local officials take Abbott's order to its logical end point.

• Fox News notices.

• Abbott starts getting bad press on Fox News.

• Abbott issues arbitrary, vague, modifications to his previous arbitrary, vague, order.

Rinse, lather, repeat

The problem, fundamentally, is that the government is acting illegally.  Neither the Governor, nor these local officials, have the legal authority to behave as they have been.  At both the state and local levels, government needs to get back to solid legal footing.

Nothing in Abbott's "modification" from this morning gets government back to solid legal footing.  Even if it leads to a better practical outcome (this time), it's still lawless.  Hair of the dog, etc.

Expect more abuses...

...even if Shelley Luther's one specific case turns out ok.

Bottom Line:  Shelley Luther ain't gonna be the last of these stories....

Apparently, this Judge in Dallas has an Opponent in November

saying: “There was in a certain city a judge who did not fear God nor regard man."
Luke 18:2

UPDATE: Jessica Voyce Lewis' campaign website is here; you can donate to her campaign here.

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Original Post:

We've already said our piece about the travesty of Shelley Luther's imprisonment.

However, we decided to check something else on a hunch:

 

The judge in this case does have a general election opponent.

We know nothing about Jessica Voyce Lewis beyond the fact that she's not Eric Moye.  Apparently, she's a lawyer in Dallas who specializes in bankruptcy law.  You can read her law firm bio here.

Nobody should be under any illusions about this race.  Jessica Voyce Lewis doesn't even have a campaign website.  That's why we had to link to her bio from the law firm.

Still...she filed...and her name is on the ballot.

That's not a bad start.

Jessica Voyce Lewis doesn't need to defeat the incumbent.  She just needs to raise enough money to make the incumbent's actions widely known.  If she can do that, she's likely to outperform the rest of her ticket.

If she can make the incumbent's re-election campaign unpleasant enough, that will likely alter future behavior.

All she needs to do is play this video (over and over):

Sounds like Wesley Mouch. https://t.co/CmkiPqpXg5

— cahnman (@cahnman) May 5, 2020

Bottom Line:  Whatever ultimately happens, this is a great platform to publicize the incumbent's misdeeds.