The most important national story at play in Texas tomorrow (since 538 whiffed)....

"Dear friends, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God, because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1 (NIV)

We just read this embarassingly bad analysis from 538.com about the national stakes in Texas' Congressional runoffs. It's cliche-filled nonsense that, at best, illustrates the hazards of long distance punditry. 538 spends 80% of their time discussing the Democrats despite the fact that Democrats in Texas are irrelevant (unless they're being enabled by Republicans). Honestly, it's not even worth your time.

That being said, there is a national story brewing (for anyone who wants to pay attention): The Republican runoffs, and what they could mean for the Republican conference in the U.S. House.

No matter what happens tomorrow, conservatives are at least +2 in Congressional races in Texas this cycle. Van Taylor is going to replace Sam Johnson. And whoever wins CD-21 is going to be light years better than Lamar Smith. That's already two improvements.

The other four run-offs contrast Texas good ol' boy "Republicans" with grassroots conservatives. If conservatives have a good night tomorrow, it pulls the center of gravity in the Texas delegation significantly to the right. And, if the Texas delegation moves right, so does the Republican conference as a whole.

Those runoffs are below:

• CD 2 (Ted Poe seat): Crenshaw (conservative) vs. Roberts (Good Ol’ Boy)
  
• CD 5 (Hensarling seat): Pounds (conservative) vs. Gooden (Good Ol’ Boy)
  
• CD 6 (Barton seat): Wright (conservative) vs. some hack (Good Ol’ Boy)
   
• CD 27 (Farenthold seat): Cloud (conservative) vs. Bruun (Good Ol’ Boy).

Right now, the Texas delegation has one solid conservative (Gohmert). It has a few reasonably decent members (eg. Hensarling, Ratcliffe, Roger Williams). The rest are good ol’ boy types.

It doesn’t take a genius to see how, as you replace good ol’ boys with conservatives, the Texas Delegation shifts to the right.

It also doesn’t take a genius to see how, as afore mentioned impact occurs, it has a ripple effect on the rest of the Republican conference.

[Note: With all due respect to our friends in the national media, if you just had to google the phrase “good ol’ boy,” you might want to refrain from commenting upon politics in this state.]

Bottom Line: There are several races in Texas tomorrow with potentially large national impact. But they’re happening on the Republican side, not the Democrat. If you want to understand how the national media missed Trump, THIS is how the national media missed Trump.

CD 5: Pounds' honest wealth vs. Gooden's Pay to Play

"The riches of vanity shall diminish: but he that gathereth with the hand, shall increase them.
Proverbs 13:11

We tend to like the Texas Observer.  Even though they're liberal, they frequently do good work on areas like corporate welfare.  But yesterday's article about Bunni Pounds' work as a political fundraiser for conservative candidates is downright silly:

Thirteen days after the Plano party, Pounds made a big announcement: She was launching her own congressional bid. Pounds is running to replace retiring Congressman Jeb Hensarling, who personally tapped Pounds to take the Dallas-area 5th Congressional District seat he’s held since 2003. Her main qualification? For the better part of a decade, Pounds worked as the political fundraiser for Hensarling and, more recently, for a long list of other GOP candidates, including many prominent Texas conservatives like Van Taylor. On its website, Bunni Pounds & Associates claims to have raised more than $10 million for congressional candidates and “other political clients.” Pounds recently told NBC DFW that the goal of her company was to “make sure our conservative liberty-minded candidates were taken care of.”

She may be campaigning as a grassroots conservative, but she’s fishing for money from the same swampy ponds she frequented as Hensarling’s fundraiser.

Pounds worked as the chief fundraiser for Hensarling’s campaign as he rose to one of the most powerful positions in Washington: chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees banking and Wall Street. She also was the fundraiser for a PAC that Hensarling used to dole out funds to his GOP colleagues. A vehement advocate for extensive deregulation of the financial sector, Hensarling authored the Financial CHOICE Act, a bill that aims to cut the legs out from Dodd-Frank. Pounds was, in turn, charged with securing millions of dollars in contributions from donors, many of whom were in industries that had business before his committee.

After years of only raising money for Hensarling, Pounds set up her own political fundraising and consulting shop in 2015 and within two years had turned it into a half-a-million-dollar business with nine employees, according to her campaign website. The site also boasts that Pounds “is now seen as one of the top fundraisers in North Texas from Fort Worth all the way to Tyler.”

This background raises questions not only about Pounds’ qualifications for office, but about whose debt she’ll be in should she become a member of Congress. Groveling to donors day in and day out is enough to compromise your average politician, to say nothing of someone whose expertise that was before they became a politician.

And?!?  She had a certain set of views on public policy and she raised money from people with similar views on public policy to elect candidates with similar views on public policy.  That's called electioneering 101.

[Note: And, for the love of God, can somebody please explain to the peons at the Texas Observer that Wall St. actually LOVES Government Regulation?!?]

Contrast Bunni Pounds with her opponent:

His name is Monty Bennett, and it’s not even a little surprising that the Dallas hotelier wants to defeat Pounds. Her opponent in the May 22 GOP runoff election is state Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Terrell, who passed special interest legislation benefiting Bennett's East Texas ranch while receiving over $100,000 in campaign donations from him, records show.

Gooden’s personal financial statement on file with the Texas Ethics Commission also shows he owns a small slice of Henderson County property with Bennett. Campaign records show Bennett and his MJB Operating LP have given Gooden at least $140,000 for past legislative races, making him Gooden’s largest individual donor.

With the congressional race, Bennett’s critics are seeing a familiar pattern come to a head. Andy Jones, a small business owner who’s clashed with Bennett over property in Henderson County, said Bennett “throws money at everything” to get his way — and questioned whether he would have disproportionate influence over Gooden if elected to Congress.

"That makes me wary because that’s how he works — he buys folks," Jones, a Pounds supporter, said of Bennett’s history of giving generously to Gooden. "I’m afraid with so much money coming from one person — that those votes won’t be straight-up fair."

....

Bennett’s Henderson County ranch in deep East Texas has been at the center of a long-raging controversy pitting Bennett and Gooden against the Tarrant Regional Water District in Fort Worth. Bennett’s 1,000-acre Lazy W Ranch sits in the proposed path of a $2.3 billion, 150-mile pipeline that will carry water from East Texas to Dallas-Fort Worth, according to court documents.

Less than a year after the water district sought to enter Bennett's property to conduct a survey, Gooden quietly pushed a bill through the Legislature that helped Bennett fight the Tarrant Regional Water District's efforts to condemn a piece of his land for its pipeline.

The 2011 legislation, HB 3864, created the Lazy W District No. 1, a municipal utility district which court records say is comprised entirely of Bennett’s ranch. That has allowed Bennett’s Lazy W to assert “immunity as a governmental entity,” according to a Texas Supreme Court decision that took his side in a procedural fight in 2016.

In an email, Bennett said his and Gooden's joint ownership of an acre in Henderson County had “nothing to do” with the Lazy W District No. 1. Bennett is the president of the board of directors, state records show.

After creating the district, Gooden went to bat for Bennett in his battle to get records from the Tarrant water district, citing his prerogative as a member of the Legislature in 2014 to receive information — including “confidential information“ — as long as it’s used for legislative purposes.

Gooden’s campaign declined to answer a list of questions for this story, including why he owns property with his largest legislative donor and whether he thought Bennett would have undue influence over him if he gets elected to Congress.

Bottom Line:  Both of the candidates in this race have money, but they came about it differently.  Bunni Pounds voluntarily exchanged resources with those of a like mind.  Lance Gooden created a water district to benefit your biggest political donor (on a property where he had an ownership interest).  This does not seem like a difficult choice...

Hensarling Endorses Pounds

"Iron sharpeneth iron, so doth man sharpen the face of his friend."
Proverbs 27:17

From the Inbox:

FROM THE DESK OF Congressman Jeb Hensarling

Friend, As I'm sure you know at year's end I'll be stepping down as your Congressman. As I exit public life, I've had no greater privilege in life than to fight for freedom in the U.S. Congress over the past 15 years — leading the charge against the Wall Street bailout, against wasteful earmarks like the "Bridge to Nowhere," and to work alongside President Trump to secure our border once and for all. It's a record that has earned a 97% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union, and I thank the people of the 5th District for entrusting me with what I consider a sacred trust. The race to succeed me as your Republican nominee will be settled on May 22nd, and the stakes could not be higher. After taking some time to look at the actual records of Lance Gooden and Bunni Pounds, I was shocked by the contrast. When Lance Gooden recently told an audience, "I did not run to be a Republican platform value upholder," his record proves that he meant it. According to numerous conservative and independent organizations, Lance Gooden consistently ranks among the most liberal GOP House members in Austin.He's ranked the 5th most liberal Republican in the Texas legislature, and he can't even qualify for membership in the Texas Conservative Coalition — an organization comprised of the vast majority of his Republican colleagues. • Gooden aligned with the position of Planned Parenthood and voted to kill legislation that would have banned certain late term abortions. • Gooden worked to defeat Governor Abbott's effort to bring relief to homeowners from what the Governor called "the skyrocketing rise in property taxes." • Gooden has received contributions from the AFL-CIO which is advocating for the Obama DACA program and amnesty. Fortunately, there is a choice. Bunni Pounds has resided in the 5th Congressional District for over 16 years, and I've known her for over a decade. She is a conservative stalwart and a successful small businesswoman. I know her courage and her integrity. I know her commitment to freedom, life, economic opportunity, the 2nd Amendment, and to securing our borders. She will be a champion for our cause like few others. Furthermore, Bunni has been endorsed by a number of strong conservatives, including Vice President Mike Pence. Vice President Pence endorsed Bunni because he knows she'll work with him and the president to "Make America Great Again." In fact, on a recent trip to Dallas the Vice President asked to meet with Bunni specifically to discuss ways she can help advance the Trump agenda. If you have supported me and if you support President Trump and Vice President Pence, don't be fooled by the conservative words of liberal Lance Gooden. Please support President Trump and Vice President Pence by sending them an ally. On May 22nd, please vote for Bunni Pounds. You'll be proud you did. Yours Respectfully, Jeb

Bottom Line: Honestly, we're kind of shocked to see a sitting Congressman admit that the Texas House of Representatives is filled with liberals. But we'll take it. Go Jeb Hensarling.

Bunni Pounds explains origins of her name

"He also gave him a copy of the written decree for their destruction, which was given at Shushan, that he might show it to Esther and explain it to her, and that he might command her to go in to the king to make supplication to him and plead before him for her people."
Esther 4:8

Bunni Pounds is a congressional candidate in the runoff for the seat currently held by Jeb Hensarling.  We've never met the woman, but we share numerous mutual friends.  Given that her runoff opponent is a Joe Straus lackey, she's a no-brainer in that race.

In a campaign e-mail, she explains the origins of her somewhat...colorful...name; it's an interesting story:

Friend, Last week in Rusk, I had my picture taken with the Easter Bunny and was thankful again for my name and heritage. For those of you who don't know the story, I was named after Billy Graham’s daughter Ruth Bell (nicknamed Bunny).  My dad was a white coat medic in the U.S. Army during the period of the Vietnam War when he saw a Billy Graham crusade on TV and gave his life completely to Jesus, becoming a born again Christian. My dad always liked to read and when he read about Pastor Graham's family and his daughter Bunny, he thought that it was a cool name. I am still not sure how my mom said yes to this name choice but she did and the rest is history. They named me Bunni with an "i" and named my sister Sunni two years later to rhyme. Today on the day before Resurrection Day (Easter), I am so thankful for my heritage - that I grew up with godly parents who taught me the Bible and that I am loved by a great God who was willing to die for me.  I am thankful for a great country, America, that was founded on our Judeo-Christian values that help foster democracy, entrepreneurship, and freedom for all. Our nation is a light to the world that we can never take for granted. I am thankful for my family who love me unconditionally, Tim, Israel, and Ben, who have gone on this journey with me and believe that I am the right person to represent the people that I have served for over a decade. I am thankful for you - for your prayers, your encouragement, and your belief in a woman named Bunni to be the next Member of Congress for the 5th District of Texas. Thank you and Happy Easter! Bunni Pounds

Bottom Line: Good to know, and we know we weren't the only ones who were wondering....

Congressional Races continue offering significant upgrade opportunities

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

While last weeks results for state legislative races were a mixed bag, the congressional races went very well.

Some thoughts on the six open seat Republican district:

• CD 2 - Neither run-off candidate stands out in a good way, but Kevin Roberts was such a lousy state rep that it suggests one should support the other guy by default.

• CD 3 - Van Taylor wins without a runoff.

• CD 5 - Bunni Pounds is rapidly consolidating conservative support. We've never met the woman, but numerous sources we trust have nothing but good things to say about her.  We just wish she had a different name.

• CD 6 - Ron Wright qualifies for runoff while finishing 24 points in front of closest rival.

• CD 21 - Matt McCall and Chip Roy are both solid conservatives.  We've known them both for many years and the differences are due to personality and style, but the philosophical underpinnings are identical.  Either one would be a significant upgrade over the current 32 year incumbent.

• CD 27 - Michael Cloud scores a surprisingly strong second place finish while the widely expected front runner underperforms for a front runner.

Bottom Line: Obviously, you need to win the run-offs, but we should be very satisfied with the primary results in Congressional races.