Abbott Endorses Cloud in CD-27 SPECIAL ELECTION

"Keep your heart with all diligence,
For out of it spring the issues of life."
Proverbs 4:23

We didn't realize election day was tomorrow:



Highlights:

• Cloud was county chair in Victoria county.

• Need a representative to advocate for the district post Hurricane Harvey.

• Takes shot at Farenthold: "Restore integrity to the office."

Bottom Line: A clean win for Cloud tomorrow would allow him to get a head start on shaking up the Texas Delegation before the re-enforcements arrive next year.

The most important national story at play in Texas tomorrow (since 538 whiffed)....

"Dear friends, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God, because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1 (NIV)

We just read this embarassingly bad analysis from 538.com about the national stakes in Texas' Congressional runoffs. It's cliche-filled nonsense that, at best, illustrates the hazards of long distance punditry. 538 spends 80% of their time discussing the Democrats despite the fact that Democrats in Texas are irrelevant (unless they're being enabled by Republicans). Honestly, it's not even worth your time.

That being said, there is a national story brewing (for anyone who wants to pay attention): The Republican runoffs, and what they could mean for the Republican conference in the U.S. House.

No matter what happens tomorrow, conservatives are at least +2 in Congressional races in Texas this cycle. Van Taylor is going to replace Sam Johnson. And whoever wins CD-21 is going to be light years better than Lamar Smith. That's already two improvements.

The other four run-offs contrast Texas good ol' boy "Republicans" with grassroots conservatives. If conservatives have a good night tomorrow, it pulls the center of gravity in the Texas delegation significantly to the right. And, if the Texas delegation moves right, so does the Republican conference as a whole.

Those runoffs are below:

• CD 2 (Ted Poe seat): Crenshaw (conservative) vs. Roberts (Good Ol’ Boy)
  
• CD 5 (Hensarling seat): Pounds (conservative) vs. Gooden (Good Ol’ Boy)
  
• CD 6 (Barton seat): Wright (conservative) vs. some hack (Good Ol’ Boy)
   
• CD 27 (Farenthold seat): Cloud (conservative) vs. Bruun (Good Ol’ Boy).

Right now, the Texas delegation has one solid conservative (Gohmert). It has a few reasonably decent members (eg. Hensarling, Ratcliffe, Roger Williams). The rest are good ol’ boy types.

It doesn’t take a genius to see how, as you replace good ol’ boys with conservatives, the Texas Delegation shifts to the right.

It also doesn’t take a genius to see how, as afore mentioned impact occurs, it has a ripple effect on the rest of the Republican conference.

[Note: With all due respect to our friends in the national media, if you just had to google the phrase “good ol’ boy,” you might want to refrain from commenting upon politics in this state.]

Bottom Line: There are several races in Texas tomorrow with potentially large national impact. But they’re happening on the Republican side, not the Democrat. If you want to understand how the national media missed Trump, THIS is how the national media missed Trump.

CD-27 Runoff: Cloud Running Strong Campaign....

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

In the race to succeed the disgraced Blake Farenthold, the Trib takes notice of Michael Cloud's surprisingly strong first round performance:

In December, U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold drew national attention when, in the middle of a sexual harassment scandal, he announced he was not running for another term. Yet the race to replace the Corpus Christi Republican has been one of the state's most under-the-radar contests.

That was, in part, because many have assumed Bech Bruun, the former Texas Water Board Commission chairman and most prominent candidate in the 6-way Republican primary, was a safe bet to take over the seat.

But last month, Bruun just narrowly placed first in the March 6 primary with 36 percent of the vote. Close behind him was former Victoria County GOP Chairman Michael Cloud at 34 percent.

That margin surprised more than a few political insiders in the state, who assumed Bruun, who has ties to the state's GOP leadership and has racked up a string of prominent endorsements, would either avoid a runoff entirely or come much closer than he did to drawing the majority support needed to do so.

But Cloud is putting up a tenacious fight that is leaving more than a few Texas political insiders less sure of who might win the GOP nomination in the May 22nd runoff.

....

Cloud, a current member of the State Republican Executive Committee, had been running for the seat since early October, two months before Farenthold announced his retirement. And Bruun said that while he decided to run after Hurricane Harvey hit the region in late August, he held off from announcing his run for Congress until December, when his time at the water board was winding down.

....

Cloud is running as "a constitutional conservative," with an emphasis on border security and scaling back the power of the federal government. And he argued in remarks in Port Lavaca in February that his early bid suggests an added layer of sincerity in his campaign.

"If you followed the race, we got involved back in October," he said. "The landscape was completely different, and then news happened that shifted the race. That news happened a week before the filing deadline."

He then implicitly criticized the other candidates who entered the race in that time period, including Bruun.

"We got in the race because I looked at what was happening in our nation, and I felt like we needed something to happen," he added. "And I felt like we needed to send people who had the courage, who had the conviction to stand up to a culture of corruption in Washington, D.C. So that's what got me into this race, that was the message from the beginning."

....

But Cloud had clearly built a following with his head start. He also has the endorsements of former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, one of the country’s most prominent libertarian-leaning politicians; David Barton, an influential evangelical activist and author; and the four Republican candidates who did not make the runoff.

Farenthold, the scandal-tarred incumbent, has not endorsed in the race and neither candidate appears to be pursuing his support.

Bottom Line:  On the one hand, you've got a personal friend of Ron Paul.  On the other hand, you've got a Todd Hunter crony who's a key player in Texas' corrupt water polices.  This decision isn't difficult.

Congressional Races continue offering significant upgrade opportunities

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

While last weeks results for state legislative races were a mixed bag, the congressional races went very well.

Some thoughts on the six open seat Republican district:

• CD 2 - Neither run-off candidate stands out in a good way, but Kevin Roberts was such a lousy state rep that it suggests one should support the other guy by default.

• CD 3 - Van Taylor wins without a runoff.

• CD 5 - Bunni Pounds is rapidly consolidating conservative support. We've never met the woman, but numerous sources we trust have nothing but good things to say about her.  We just wish she had a different name.

• CD 6 - Ron Wright qualifies for runoff while finishing 24 points in front of closest rival.

• CD 21 - Matt McCall and Chip Roy are both solid conservatives.  We've known them both for many years and the differences are due to personality and style, but the philosophical underpinnings are identical.  Either one would be a significant upgrade over the current 32 year incumbent.

• CD 27 - Michael Cloud scores a surprisingly strong second place finish while the widely expected front runner underperforms for a front runner.

Bottom Line: Obviously, you need to win the run-offs, but we should be very satisfied with the primary results in Congressional races.

Ron Paul endorses Michael Cloud (in the Blake Farenthold district)

"As iron sharpens iron,
So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend."
Proverbs 27:17

We had intended to do a deeper investigation of Blake Farenthold's challengers but, from the inbox, this certainly clarifies:

Ron Paul Endorses Michael Cloud in Congressional Race

Lake Jackson – Ron Paul, a long-time Texas Republican congressman and three-time presidential candidate, has announced his endorsement of Michael Cloud, who is running for Congress in the 27th District of Texas.

“I worked with Michael when he served in the Victoria Young Republicans Club, and again when he was Chairman of the Victoria County GOP. I know him to be a man of his word, principled, trustworthy and hardworking,” said Paul. “I hope my former supporters will get behind him because our country desperately needs leaders with integrity, courage and moral character. Michael Cloud is that kind of leader.”

Paul represented Texans in Congress for 24 years, retiring in 2013. He is widely considered the leader of the modern-day Liberty movement.

Cloud announced his candidacy in September 2017, vowing to “fight the culture of corruption in Washington.”

Cloud, a business owner, currently represents 21 counties as a member of the State Republican Executive Committee. He was elected to four terms as chair of the Victoria County Republican Party and has served on staff at Faith Family Church in Victoria, Texas. Cloud and his wife Rosel have three children.

“I am very honored by this endorsement,” said Cloud. “And I thank the good doctor for his confidence in me.”

Based on Farenthold's lousy voting record, the choice between the incumbent and a Ron Paul supporter is easy on policy grounds alone.  But this is Blake Farenthold we're discussing.  So the incumbent's 'issues' obviously extend beyond policy considerations.

There's a third candidate in the race.  For now, we don't want to help him build name recognition.  Suffice to say, the third candidate is an ex-Todd Hunter staffer.

Bottom Line: The contrast speaks for itself.