#TXLEGE: Abbott's Campaign Spending suggests GOP in good shape in Texas house

"and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
Matthew 16:3

Interesting:

I've got @GregAbbott_TX's campaign spending $1.8M across 20 battleground state House races on the latest TEC filings (Sept. 25-Oct. 24). The candidate breakdown: pic.twitter.com/wzcaXn7w7t

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 28, 2020

Thoughts:

• It's fascinating that he's spending more on two central Texas districts currently held by Democrats than anywhere else.  Since he's Greg Abbott, he must obviously have polling data that suggests this is a good investment.  Think our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding policy had anything to do with this?!?

• Steve Allison won in 2018 by close to ten points, it's hard to imagine him being in real trouble.

• Ditto Craig Goldman...although we're less confident about that one based on his actions.

• That being said, Abbott seems to have completely written off Lacey Hull and Morgan Meyer.

• The only incumbent on this list who seems any realistic shot at losing is Jeff Leach, but even that one doesn't seem like a done deal.
• Note: If Leach actually wins, it likely means R's gain seats in the chamber.

• We'll see what happens with Matt Shaheen, but we'd be surprised if any of the seats below him on this list flip.

• All of which is to suggest there will be between 80 and 86 R's in the Texas house next session.
• Note: Absent our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding actions, that range is probably 78 to 84.

Remember: Abbott polls EVERYTHING.

Bottom Line: While there might be some tinkering around the edges, something roughly resembling the status quo seems likely to prevail.

#TXLEGE: Depressing

"Jesus wept."
John 11:35

We discussed this morning's Trib event with Craig Goldman and Celia Israel yesterday.  Yeah, we didn't go.  We did watch online. It was a great reminder of the ongoing institutional wretchedness...otherwise known as the Texas house.

The top line takeaway is easy: The majority party in the Texas house continues to suck.  The opposition party, however, continues to suck even more.  Thus, something close to the staus quo is likely to continue.

In a competition between D-minus and F, D-minus will continue to win by default.



It's difficult to oversell just how vacuous Craig Goldman was this morning. He's still drinking the Kool-aid from last session. "Transformational education reform" or some such nonsense.

For everything that could be said about Craig Goldman, however, all you have to know is that he praised "the leadership of...Speaker Bonnen."

He actually said it.

Yet, Celia Israel didn't call Goldman out.

[Note: Evan Smith didn't call Goldman out either.  But we can let that one slide.  That's not necessarily the moderator's job (although it is something a good moderator would do).  It is, however, the opposition party's job.]

Think about that: A member of the majority party praised a presiding officer who's being forced out because of corruption.  Furthermore, he did so while the campaign chief for the opposition party was literally sitting next to him.  Yet, that opposition party campaign chief didn't think such comments from the member of the majority party were noteworthy.

That, right there, tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about Celia Israel's political competence.

Then again, what would you expect from a political party that was too stupid to figure out the guy to whom they just lost was a slumlord?!?

Suffice to say, putting Jim Murphy in charge of cleaning up this Teacher Retirement system mess didn't come up.

Bottom Line: For as much material as the Texas GOP seems determined to give them, the Texas Democrats ongoing failure to exploit it remains a sight.

#TXLEGE: Questions we'd ask Goldman and Israel if we were Evan Smith

"Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits, whether they are of God; because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1

Trib's holding an event tomorrow morning about the Texas house:

It’s the question everyone’s asking across the state — and at the Capitol. With the speakership up for grabs, big issues looming, and redistricting around the bend, Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith talks strategy and tactics with state Rep. Celia Israel of Austin, who’s leading the Democratic party’s efforts to regain the majority, and state Rep. Craig Goldman of Fort Worth, one of the Republicans tasked with retaining it.

This is an event we'd normally attend.  But the weather looks like it's going to suck.  And we want to take it easy on our knee.

But there are any number of questions that should be asked.

For Celia Israel:

• Why should anyone believe the Democrats are even remotely capable of picking up nine seats when y'all were too stupid to figure out that Gary Gates is a slumlord?!?

• Following y'all's debacle in Ft. Bend county, have you figured out that nobody cares about redistricting?!?

• It has now been two weeks since the GOP put Jim Frickin' Murphy in charge of cleaning up the Teacher Retirement System scandals.  Why have Democrats failed to exploit this debacle for political purposes?!?  Does this failure reflect poorly on your basic political competence?!?

For Craig Goldman:

• Why should anybody believe a word the Texas GOP says at this point?!?

For Both:

• Does it actually matter which party controls the Texas house next session?!?  Besides the details of whose donors get paid off more.  And how, specifically, you'll lie to voters.

• It's not exactly a secret that the Texas house is governed by a 'bi-partisan' blob of 120 or so members.
• Hint: Not really.

• What does the utter, total, and complete failure of ANY member of the Texas house (in either party) to condemn putting Jim frickin' Murphy in charge of cleaning up the Teacher Retirement System scandals say about the culture of the institution.?!?

• Should Poncho Nevarez receive a taxpayer funded pension for the rest of his life?!?

Bottom Line:  We'd LOVE to hear Craig Goldman and Celia Israel answer all of these.

#TXLEGE: Oh, Dennis

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Even from 1500 miles away, it was pretty difficult to miss to continued devolution of the Bonnen saga.

To write a full analysis of the past week would require more time than we have interest, but some thoughts:

• When we've been saying, for years, that state government in Texas is astonishingly corrupt...this is a pretty good example.

• The members defending Bonnen are a bunch of dickless chodes.
• aka. Mayes Middleton, Matt Shaheen, Drew Springer, Craig Goldman, and...especially...Jeff Leach.
• Update: Add James White, Scott Sanford, Brad Buckley, and Cole Hefner to the list.
• Update II: Add Tom Oliverson.

• We haven't seen this level of willful blindness to serious misconduct since Wallace Hall.

• Whether or not Bonnen survives as speaker is irrelevant.  Anyone who can get to 76 votes will be a scumbag.  Gib Lewis, Pete Laney, Tom Craddick, Joe Straus, and Dennis Bonnen have all sucked.

• This is the same Texas house that, nearly two years into the scandal, has yet to say a word about Jim Murphy.

• Does the Travis County DA have jurisdiction?!?

• This is FUN!!!

Bottom Line: These people brought this on themselves and deserve everything that's coming....

#TXLEGE: Patrick outlines path to Decent Speaker

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

On Thursday, Dan Patrick released his endorsements in house races:

PR 18 10 18 House Endorsements by on Scribd

That Patrick was willing to wade into house races is, itself, noteworthy.

But what's really interesting is who Patrick endorsed.  There are some pretty prominent names that were left off that list.  If the people on this list can stick together, the Republican conference will be able to elect an "ok" speaker.

That being said, from a speaker's race perspective, some of Patrick's endorsements are screwy.  Why on Earth would you endorse John Zerwas but NOT Phil King or Craig Goldman?!?  Also, the Jim Murphy endorsement can only be classified as very, very disappointing.

Overall, however, it's a reasonably solid list.

Bottom Line: If the names on this list can stick together, you're well on your way to meaningful change....

#TXLEGE: Today's TPPF #SpecialSession Policy Orientation

"Prepare yourself and be ready, you and all your companies that are gathered about you; and be a guard for them."
Ezekiel 38:7

TPPF hosted a supplemental policy orientation today with a mix of speakers and panels; the following is a direct transcription of our notes.

Governor Greg Abbott:

• Teachers are the most important part of the education process.

• Reward the best teachers.

• School finance -- What has been studied previously is not adequate.
• No more "band aids over band aids."
• End Robin Hood.

• Current education structure focuses on "schools, not students."

• Cities have enacted policies that are hostile to economic growth.
• "If we don't stop this, real quick, we are in real danger."

• Taxpayers should have a say in tax increases.
• #1 issue we must address.

• Private property rights are being diminished across Texas.

• "I want a vote" on union dues bill.

• Dallas mail in ballot fraud nothing new.
• Been going on since (at least) Lyndon Johnson.
• Removing paid political operatives from the process.

• Publishing lists of special session items re: who's supporting/who's not "on a daily basis."

Lt. Gov Dan Patrick:

• Points out Straus laying foundation for state income tax in the first paragraph.
• Along with Democrats and school district officials.

• 52% of budget goes to education.

• Teachers only get 32% of education $$$.

• "It's not an unfunded mandate...school districts need to re-purpose the money."

• Teachers unions oppose higher pay for teachers.

• Math is math.

• "Governor Abbott and I do not want Texas to become California or Illinois."

• "Greg Abbott's priorities are my priorities."

• Property taxes #1 priority.

• House has lots of members who will vote the right way "if they get the chance."

• "Texas likes fighters, not quitters."

• "We've shown that big government Republicans are wrong."

• re: Straus: "Don't undermine the entire party and the entire state."

From Left: Talmadge Heflin (TPPF), Sen. Kelly Hancock, Rep. Craig Goldman, Sen. Bryan Hughes, Patrick Gleason (ATR)

State level fiscal policy panel:

• Statewide spending limits needs to go down to (population + inflation).

• Hancock: Abbott created conference committees before the bills were even filed.

• Public sector unions are bankrupting California.

• Hancock: Spending is where you control the growth of government.
• (Population + inflation) is a real cap.
• Note: As this session's budget can attest, (population + inflation) is more of a bare minimum than a real cap...but it would still be a significant improvement on the status quo.

• Gleason: It's easier to pass things in other states when Texas has done it.

• Gleason: Kansas cut taxes, but failed to keep spending in check.

From Left: Sen. Donna Campbell, Sen. Paul Bettencourt, Rep. Paul Workman

Local Liberty Panel:

• Cities are doing power grabs to increase their tax base.

• Annexation: Cities have been unrestrained for decades.
• Campbell's bill expedites voluntary annexation.
• Texas is one of the last states in the country to permit voluntary annexation.

• Property Taxes: Revenue up >30% in all the major counties over the past few years.
• Anywhere you go in the state, appraisals are up at least 15% annually.
• School districts have to hold tax ratification elections past a certain threshold; you need a similar mechanism for cities and counties.
• Current rollback petition requirements "are fictitious nonsense."
• Rollback rates have been >5% since Jimmy Carter.
• Bettencourt supports 0% rollback rate but doesn't currently have the votes.
• Texas currently chasing New York and Illinois on property tax burdens.

• Tree Bill: Heritage trees add value to property, so cutting them down is rare, but in the cases where it's necessary it's none of the government's business.
• Westlake tried to fine a property owner $100k for cutting down a tree on his own property.

• Expedited Permitting: Workman's bill states that cities can have expedited permitting, but doesn't allow them to add strings to the process.

Bonnen hears (at least) NINE (more) special interest carve out bills (23 for session)....

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

It's that time of week when we check on the latest from Dennis Bonnen and the Texas House Ways and Means committee:

•  HB 382        Murphy | et al.
  Relating to the exemption from ad valorem taxation of real property leased to and used by certain schools.

• HB 589        Bohac                  
  Relating to a sales tax exemption for certain items sold during a limited period.

•  HB 595        Workman | et al.       
  Relating to a franchise tax credit for entities that employ certain students in certain paid internship or similar programs. 

• HB 755        Parker                 
  Relating to the use by certain tax-exempt organizations of certain payments made in connection with real property transfers to provide educational activities through certain schools.

•  HB 1127       Raymond | et al.       
  Relating to a franchise tax credit pilot program for taxable entities that employ certain apprentices.

• HB 1351       Wray                   
  Relating to the prohibition of local motor fuel taxes on compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas. 

•  HB 2028       Goldman                
  Relating to the procedure for canceling a deferral or abatement of collection of ad valorem taxes on the residence homestead of an elderly person.

•  HB 2381       Frullo                 
  Relating to the applicability of the sales and use tax to certain insurance services.

•  HJR 52        Turner                 
  Proposing a constitutional amendment authorizing the legislature to exempt from ad valorem taxation a portion of the assessed value of certain real property used to provide housing to certain individuals with disabilities.

Bud Kennedy throws a tantrum over photo

"But as for you, you meant evil against me; but God meant it for good, in order to bring it about as it is this day, to save many people alive."
Genesis 50:20

Earlier today, this website posted two pieces about Tarrant County representative Craig Goldman.  To illustrate those pieces this author selected a photo at random from a Google Image search.  This prompted the following direct message on Twitter from Bud Kennedy:

While Kennedy's request was petty, we changed the photo as a CYA move.  That being said, by making such a childish demand, Kennedy made the image newsworthy and thus subject to fair use.  This is the image Kennedy didn't want readers to see, it shows Craig Goldman, who worked on the 2008 McCain campaign, in a McCain hat:

The next, more interesting, question is why Kennedy cared about this enough to throw a hissy fit.  Did Craig Goldman ask him to do it?!?  Does Goldman not want voters to be aware of his history with McCain?!?

On a related note, we find it interesting that the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reads this website in the first place.

Straus supporting Reps who had bills killed last session

"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravenous wolves."
Matthew 7:15

Perusing Joe Straus' record, we were struck by the number of Reps who had bills killed last session who nonetheless (inexplicably) support returning Straus to the speakership:

Gio:

• HB 524

Craig Goldman:

• HB 1250

Jodie Laubenberg:

• HB 872
• HB 2364

Drew Springer:

 

• HB 1568
• HB 2416

James White:

• HJR 48

Which begs the next question: What kind of Stockholm Syndrome does it take to return the leadership that killed your bills last session to the same position this coming session?!?

Craig Goldman Selectively Quotes Texas GOP Platform

"All Scripture is given by inspiration of God, and is profitable for doctrine, for reproof, for correction, for instruction in righteousness, 17 that the man of God may be complete, thoroughly equipped for every good work."
2 Timothy 3:16-17

In a recent Texas Tribune piece, Tarrant County Rep Craig Goldman made the following point:

House Republicans should “convene in caucus to determine, by secret ballot, their candidate for Speaker of the House,” reads the platform, which was adopted earlier this year at the state GOP convention. Rules should be “instituted … so that members may vote without risk of retribution by the prevailing party.”

Convention delegates from across the state saw the potential damage of publicly fracturing the party, so the platform calls for House Republicans “to vote as a unified body for their selected speaker candidate.”

Because I was entrusted with representing the citizens of House District 97, and because I will continue to do everything in my power to see that their values are upheld and their rights are protected, I will support Straus when our caucus convenes in January and brings the issue to a vote. I’m hopeful that a resolution will be reached in caucus, but should the vote be taken to the House floor, I’ll stand with my fellow Republicans and vote to re-elect Straus.

 Technically, Representative Goldman is correct; page 11 of the RPT platform states:

Texas House Leadership Caucus- As long as Texas House members choose the Speaker of the House, we call for the Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives to convene in caucus after each November general election to determine, by secret ballot, their candidate for Speaker of the House, and that rules be instituted to ensure the integrity and security of the secret 12 ballot, so that members may vote without risk of retribution by the prevailing party. We also call for the Republican members of the Texas House to vote as a unified body for their selected speaker candidate when the legislature convenes in regular session and a vote for speaker is called on the House floor.

You'll notice that pesky phrase "As long as Texas House members choose the Speaker of the House," which begs the question: What does the preceding plank of the RPT platform state?!?

Election of the Speaker of the House- We support an amendment to the Texas Constitution to make the Texas Speaker of the House a state wide elected position.

A quick perusal of the bills Rep. Goldman has pre-filed for the upcoming session shows that he has yet to support said constitutional amendment.

Which begs the real question: If Craig Goldman is soooooooooooooooooooooo committed to the RPT platform as it concerns the process of selecting the Texas House Speaker, why hasn't he proposed a constitutional amendment to make it a statewide elected position?!?

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While we're on the subject of the RPT platform, Craig Goldman's silence on the reparative  therapy platform is deafening.