Media Misses Point On GOP Congressional Retirements

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Representative sample of recent Congressional race reporting:

Rep. Kenny Marchant on Monday became the latest Texas Republican to announce he will not run for reelection, leaving a suburban district between Dallas and Fort Worth up for grabs. He is the fourth Republican in the state to bow out of the 2020 election; three of them represent very competitive districts.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Marchant’s district as a “toss-up,” opening up a major opportunity for Democrats. Last week, Rep. Will Hurd, the House’s only black Republican, who represents a border district in Texas, also said he would be stepping down. Hurd was seen as the only Republican who could hold on to his border district, which runs from El Paso to San Antonio — a district that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Rep. Pete Olson, who represents a quickly diversifying Houston suburban district, is also not running for reelection.

House Democrats are reveling in a “Texodus” as they increasingly see an offensive strategy to grow their House majority running through the Lone Star State.

Kinda, sorta...a little...but not really.

The truth is that (with the possible exception of the Hurd district) the GOP is clearing dead weight.  Lukewarm incumbents with indefensible records are TERRIBLE general election candidates.  The GOP is in a stronger position today than it was three weeks ago.

Back in March, we wrote a piece outlining the math.  You really should read the whole thing.  But the TL,DR version is that, in 2018, the GOP held every single open seat while two incumbents lost.

Also, for the record: One of those incumbents who lost was a guy about whom we'd been warning for years.

In a challenging national environment, the last thing you need is additional baggage from an incumbent's indefensible record.

Bottom Line: During a storm, clearing excess weight doesn't guarantee avoiding shipwreck, but it dramatically increases the odds.

Patrick channels Marge Simpson

"The tongue of the wise uses knowledge rightly,
But the mouth of fools pours forth foolishness."
Proverbs 15:2

Oh good grief:

Appearing on "Fox & Friends" on Sunday, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said that while authorities have yet to classify it as such, he saw Saturday's shooting as a "hate crime against immigrants."

Patrick cited a list of possible contributing factors, starting with video games.

"We've always had guns, always had evil, but I see a video game industry that teaches young people to kill," he said.

SMDH.

The Simpsons addressed this 30 years ago:

After Bart and Lisa watching an Itchy and Scratchy cartoon, Maggie strikes Homer with a mallet. Marge is horrified and vows to put a stop to violence on children's television. But when the ball of censorship starts to roll, where will it all end?

Roger Myers' response to Marge, updated for new technology, is also the correct response to Patrick:

“In preparing for this debate I did a little research, and I discovered a startling thing. There was violence in the past, long before [video games] were invented....And there was something called The Crusades, for instance, tremendous violence, many people killed, the darn thing went on for thirty years!”

Bottom Line: Marge Simpson belatedly figured out that her position was asinine...will Dan Patrick?!?

#TXLEGE: Oh, Dennis

"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

Even from 1500 miles away, it was pretty difficult to miss to continued devolution of the Bonnen saga.

To write a full analysis of the past week would require more time than we have interest, but some thoughts:

• When we've been saying, for years, that state government in Texas is astonishingly corrupt...this is a pretty good example.

• The members defending Bonnen are a bunch of dickless chodes.
• aka. Mayes Middleton, Matt Shaheen, Drew Springer, Craig Goldman, and...especially...Jeff Leach.
• Update: Add James White, Scott Sanford, Brad Buckley, and Cole Hefner to the list.
• Update II: Add Tom Oliverson.

• We haven't seen this level of willful blindness to serious misconduct since Wallace Hall.

• Whether or not Bonnen survives as speaker is irrelevant.  Anyone who can get to 76 votes will be a scumbag.  Gib Lewis, Pete Laney, Tom Craddick, Joe Straus, and Dennis Bonnen have all sucked.

• This is the same Texas house that, nearly two years into the scandal, has yet to say a word about Jim Murphy.

• Does the Travis County DA have jurisdiction?!?

• This is FUN!!!

Bottom Line: These people brought this on themselves and deserve everything that's coming....

#TXLEGE: Bonnen forgets first rule of holes

"Pride goes before destruction,
And a haughty spirit before a fall."
Proverbs 16:18

[Note: We'll be travelling out of state the rest of this week and into next.  Cahnman's Musings will resume publication on Wednesday, August 6.  That being said, we will be available in the event of MAJOR breaking news.]

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Update II: The DMN has A LOT more, including a statement from Ernest Bailes, here.

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Update: Bonnen keeps digging....

Here's Bonnen's full statement. Bonnen also says he asked @Burrows4TX, who was present at that June 12 meeting w/ Sullivan, "not to comment on this matter." #txlege pic.twitter.com/xbpdBilP2U

— Cassi Pollock (@cassi_pollock) July 29, 2019

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O.K.:

Bonnen Letter by Cahnman on Scribd

A few thoughts:

• It really is astonishing the degree to which house members believe their own BS.
• Note: You could say that about a lot of people/institutions in politics, but we still find the Texas house's groupthink to be a sight to behold.

• Bonnen never denies targeting the legislators in question, which shows the hollowness of his earlier "no campaigning edict."
• From a member's perspective: Even if you weren't on Bonnen's list, for Bonnen to talk out of both sides of his mouth in the way that he did means you could easily end up there in the future.

• Media credentials may or may not be a nice thing to have, but to suggest they're anybody's "long term goal" is silly.

• Reading between the lines, it appears that Bonnen's real frustration is that Sullivan seems to expect Republicans to actually do something with their majorities.

Bottom Line: In the short-term, Bonnen remains overwhelmingly likely to ride out this storm.  But the short term will inevitably pass.  What happens next has become a much more interesting question....

#TXLEGE, #TXSEN: Royce West, Borris Miles, and a test of oppo research

Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Note: Just for fun, imagine the reaction if any Republican candidate in a similar situation had secured an endorsement from Charles Schwertner.] 

Texas Tribune, Thursday:

[Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Royce] West has suggested he is optimistic that he can be more than just a Dallas-centric candidate by tapping into his legislative relationships throughout the state. He wasted little time proving that after his announcement as he earned endorsements from state Sens. Carol Alvarado and Borris Miles, both from Houston. And state Sens. Jose Menendez of San Antonio and Jose Rodriguez of El Paso attended the announcement itself.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

We remarked shortly thereafter:



It's now been two full days, and nobody has commented.

In case you've forgotten why an endorsement from Borris frickin' Miles might be considered a big deal:

Lauren*, a Texas legislative intern, was standing underneath the bright blue-and-red neon sign of The Continental Club, a famed Austin bar frequented by schmoozing politicians, lobbyists, and reporters.

That week in May 2013 was filled to the brim with end-of-session (“sine die”) parties, and Lauren was with a group of other interns on South Congress when Democratic state Rep. Borris Miles pulled up.

According to Lauren, Miles leaned out of the carriage he was riding in and pulled out a large roll of money. He handed “maybe $500” to an intern and then looked at Lauren.

“You know how you have the roll of hundreds that you see on TV? It was like that,” Lauren told The Daily Beast.

“I said, ‘Hi Representative, how are you?’ Then he slowly looked me up and down, counted out more money, reached out his hand and said, ‘Bitch, you want to fuck with me tonight?’

“I said ‘No, thank you’ and physically stepped back,” Lauren recalled. “I didn’t want to be rude to him. I remember his intern pacifying him and saying, ‘It’s time to go.’

“Everyone was just shocked that he said that—that he cussed at me and that he was offering me money. It was outrageous,” she continued. “I just remember thinking, ‘I need to go, and I need to not be here anymore.’”

And this:

One time, Chris said, he “witnessed [Miles] catcalling women in Downtown Austin on the way back from a Spurs game, and there had to have been at least 15 or 16 other members that were there because it was a member event.”

The Spurs had played the Lakers that April, and the lawmakers went together to San Antonio to watch one of the games. “As we’re driving back towards the W, he’s hanging out of the open door of the bus and shouting at women,” said Chris.

Chris could not recall the catcalls specifically but said, “It was not something that I would want shouted at anyone.”

Chris’ chief of staff confirmed to The Daily Beast that he heard about the alleged catcalling the next morning.

And this:

Ben*, a former staffer who recently worked in the Capitol and “spent a lot of time with Miles,” said he witnessed the then-state representative “forcibly kiss” at least one woman at the W Hotel.

“He offered to buy her a drink, kept trying to kiss her, and she kept trying to push him away,” said Ben. “He kept laughing about it.

“It was so creepy, and he had this big smile,” said Ben. “Borris loves the W Hotel, and he has a tendency to force himself upon women at bars and kiss them or grope them. He’ll tell them that he is a higher elected official than he actually is.”

....

“He also has a tendency to call women out of their name when they turn him down,” he said. “‘Bitch,’ ‘ho,’ ‘whore.’ He doesn’t like being told ‘no.’

And this:

When Heather* first covered the Texas Legislature as a journalist in 2011, she was repeatedly targeted by Miles, she told The Daily Beast in a story published last month.

Late one night when the legislature was in session, Heather was reporting on HB 400, which would have scrapped Texas’ law mandating class size ratio. Miles famously used a point of order to defeat the bill, landing him the title of Star of the 2011 Legislative Session by the Texas Classroom Teachers Association.

Heather said she had been trying to get details about the bill negotiations, when that night, around midnight, Miles cornered her in a hallway and forcibly kissed her outside the House chamber.

“It happened quickly,” Heather said, noting that Miles laughed afterward. “I think he thought it was hilarious.”

“He’d said several times already, ‘If you go out to dinner with me, I’d be happy to give you the details,’ and I’d sort of laugh it off but it was weird and obviously gross.”

You can read the full report here.

So, yeah, that guy made an endorsement in the current U.S. Senate race.

Yet neither MJ Hegar nor John Cornyn seem to care.

Odd.

Obviously, this is a longstanding beef for this author.

Last election cycle, we discovered that Beto O'Rourke likewise did a campaign event with Borris Miles.  In addition to writing a blog post, we also passed that information along to both the Cruz campaign and the RPT chairman.  Unfortunately, neither did anything with that information.

This time around, the difference is that this author doesn't particularly care who wins the U.S. Senate race.  So we're not going to tell any campaigns.  But we mentioned them by name, so they'll get the Google alerts.

Bottom Line: Any campaign that allows an opponent to get away with touting an endorsement from someone with Borris Miles' "alleged" record is completely incompetent and deserves to lose....

#TXLEGE: Bonnen's INSANELY ARROGANT/INSANELY STUPID gambit

"Talk no more so very proudly;
Let no arrogance come from your mouth,
For the Lord is the God of knowledge;
And by Him actions are weighed."
1 Samuel 2:3

Late yesterday afternoon, Michael Quinn Sullivan made some INSANE revelations.  You really ought to read the whole thing for yourself.  Here's the main part:

Bonnen insisted: He would ensure Texas Scorecard reporters received House floor access in 2021 if we would lay off our criticism of the legislative session, not spend money from our affiliated PACs against certain Republicans, and—most shockingly—go after a list of other Republicans in the 2020 primary elections.

Spending political money was the issue, Bonnen said. Not just refraining from spending it against his pals. He wanted us to spend it against Republicans he saw as not being helpful.

If we could “make this work,” he would put the Texas Scorecard guys on the floor next session.

....

The list of targets Burrows named off included 10 Republican Reps—Steve Allison, Trent Ashby, Ernest Bailes, Travis Clardy, Drew Darby, Kyle Kacal, Stan Lambert, John Raney, and Phil Stephenson.

There are two noteworthy aspects about this: Bonnen's arrogance AND Bonnen's stupidity.

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Arrogance:

More than anything, one aspect stands out: How much Bonnen wanted Sullivan to give up, and how little Bonnen was offering in return.

It's insane.

Bonnen wanted Sullivan to give up everything.  For...media credentials?!?  NO (obviously).

There is no deal that's worth cutting that involves blanket bans on criticizing elected officials.  None.  Whatsoever.

To accept this sort of an offer would be to permanently forfeit one's credibility, thus Sullivan's response is self-evidently correct.

Here's the really crazy part: If it were presented in a less heavy-handed manner, and if Bonnen were offering more in return, then thepart of Bonnen's request isn't entirely unreasonable.

The members Bonnen wants gone represent mostly safe Republican districts.  Even in a bad national environment, they're unlikely to flip.  Thus, there's a certain logic to focusing on them.

Imagine if, instead, Bonnen had said something like this: "I know you're frustrated.  I know the grassroots are frustrated.  But, in this political climate, I think it's best for everyone involved to focus on rural districts.  BTW, here are the members who were truly problematic...."

We'll say this: If the speaker wants to give us a clean shot at Drew Darby and Dirty Ernie in exchange for going easy on Charlie Geren and Dan Huberty...in isolation, that might be a deal worth taking.

But Dennis Bonnen didn't make that offer.  Dennis Bonnen made a very different offer.  The offer Dennis Bonnen actually made was one no self-respecting human being could accept.

Arrogant...insanely so.

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Stupidity:

Beyond the arrogance, however, is the stupidity.

The speaker serves at the pleasure of the members.  Most members hate Sullivan.  Thus, for Dennis Bonnen to consider even working clandestinely with Sullivan risks the wrath of Dennis Bonnen's electorate.

Ross Ramsey elaborates:

The politics are dangerous for the first-term speaker, no matter which version of the story is right.

Sullivan has been an outspoken critic of the Republican leadership all year, carping about what he saw as a lack of attention to issues he cares about most. Sullivan's Empower Texans also helped fund primary challenges against several House incumbents in past years. It’s fair to say that a number of Republicans have reason not to think kindly of Sullivan, his organizations and his financial patrons as political allies.

They’ll be wanting to know why Bonnen met with him at all, no matter what they were talking about. Up to this point, Bonnen has been outspoken in his defense of the 149 other members of the Texas House.

Pretty much.

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Bottom Line: Bonnen remains overwhelmingly likely to retain the speakership, but nevertheless this interim just became a lot more interesting....

Federal Courts Deny Latest "Voting Rights" Shakedown

Likewise the soldiers asked him, saying, “And what shall we do?”

So he said to them, “Do not intimidate anyone or accuse falsely, and be content with your wages.”
Luke 3:14

Good:

Federal judges on Wednesday denied a request to put Texas under federal redistricting supervision, a process known as preclearance.

The panel in San Antonio ruled that intervention was not warranted while at the same time expressing "grave concerns" about the state's past conduct in drawing maps.

District Judge Xavier Rodriguez cited Texas lawmakers’ enactment of a voter ID rule, a failed voter-purge attempt and state mapmakers’ practice of slicing up minority communities into voting districts designed to restrict the political influence of minority voters as examples of concerning activity.

....

However, the Supreme Court's decision last year to uphold the state's maps redrawn in 2013 ultimately meant the judges ruled ordering preclearance "would be inappropriate."

In other words, the status quo continues.

All things considered, this is a reasonably decent outcome...at least until our Congressional delegation grows a pair.

Bottom Line: There are going to be A LOT more lawsuits coming, but yesterday's ruling was probably a good sign....