Media Misses Point On GOP Congressional Retirements

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

Representative sample of recent Congressional race reporting:

Rep. Kenny Marchant on Monday became the latest Texas Republican to announce he will not run for reelection, leaving a suburban district between Dallas and Fort Worth up for grabs. He is the fourth Republican in the state to bow out of the 2020 election; three of them represent very competitive districts.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Marchant’s district as a “toss-up,” opening up a major opportunity for Democrats. Last week, Rep. Will Hurd, the House’s only black Republican, who represents a border district in Texas, also said he would be stepping down. Hurd was seen as the only Republican who could hold on to his border district, which runs from El Paso to San Antonio — a district that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Rep. Pete Olson, who represents a quickly diversifying Houston suburban district, is also not running for reelection.

House Democrats are reveling in a “Texodus” as they increasingly see an offensive strategy to grow their House majority running through the Lone Star State.

Kinda, sorta...a little...but not really.

The truth is that (with the possible exception of the Hurd district) the GOP is clearing dead weight.  Lukewarm incumbents with indefensible records are TERRIBLE general election candidates.  The GOP is in a stronger position today than it was three weeks ago.

Back in March, we wrote a piece outlining the math.  You really should read the whole thing.  But the TL,DR version is that, in 2018, the GOP held every single open seat while two incumbents lost.

Also, for the record: One of those incumbents who lost was a guy about whom we'd been warning for years.

In a challenging national environment, the last thing you need is additional baggage from an incumbent's indefensible record.

Bottom Line: During a storm, clearing excess weight doesn't guarantee avoiding shipwreck, but it dramatically increases the odds.

#TXLEGE: Thoughts on #SINEDIE (take 2)....

"For the earnest expectation of the creation eagerly waits for the revealing of the sons of God."
Romans 8:19

We're still digesting the past 24 hours, but a few observations in no particular order:

• 83 Republican house members showed up to today's caucus meeting.  That's a heck of a lot more than we expected.  We were also pleasantly surprised by the length of the meeting.

• Joe Straus personally showing up is an admission that all is not well in the Republican caucus.

• There was a whole bunch of traditional media at today's caucus meeting; media interest can only raise the profile of the issue..

• We're not sure who said it (Jim Graham?!?) but they're absolutely correct: You can't support both Greg Abbott and Joe Straus anymore.
• At this point, it remains an open question whether Greg Abbott supports Greg Abbott or Joe Straus.

• The arrogance of house leadership remains a sight to behold: Had they simply shown up for work this morning, they probably could have run out the clock with a fairly typical act of failure theater.  But they just had to jam their thumb in the eye of Abbott, Patrick/the Senate, and the Texas grassroots.  In doing so, they elevated their profile all over again.
• Note: The only reason we haven't completely given up on Greg Abbott is because the degree to which he's been publicly disrespected essentially demands a response.

• Apparently, the house Republican caucus has a September retreat scheduled; grassroots activists really ought to crash that party.
• Note: If the new RPT leadership really wanted to impress this website, they'd convince the caucus make the whole event open to the public.

• The kumbaya messaging coming out of today's caucus meeting was obnoxious.

• Abbott said all the right things in today's radio interview.  But Greg Abbott frequently says all the right things.  Its Greg Abbott's follow through that leaves a lot to be desired.

• Another special session won't accomplish anything right now.
• Note: But then there's redistricting....

• The Senate is certainly isn't perfect, but they're moving in the right direction.
• Note: And some of those moves are VERY significant....

• In both Austin and DC, the Republicans aren't getting the job done; if the grassroots are smart, they'll find challengers areas where bad Texas and U.S. members share territory and knock out multiple birds with one stone.
• Example: Michael Conaway and Drew Darby have overlapping districts.  Ditto Kevin Brady and Dan Huberty/Ernest Bailes.  Pete Sessions/Jason Villalba.
• UPDATE: Duh...Lamar Smith/Joe Straus.

• Random Thought: We wonder if the Texas Association of Business has ever taken any money from George Soros?!?
• cc: Abbott, Greg

• We're getting really, really, really sick of the socialized education industrial complex's sense of entitlement....

Sleeper U.S. House Race in Northwest Texas

Granbury, TX -- Cahnman's Musings was in town to cover the packed Texas House candidate forum between 9-term incumbent (Joe Straus lieutenant) Jim Keffer and grassroots challenger Cullen Crisp.  It's not a secret that Jim Keffer is in trouble.  The Texas House forum was similar to other events this cycle.  Crisp hit Keffer for increasing spending by 26% and Keffer made the usual excuses.  The real story, however, was the U.S. House forum that took place immediately prior.

5-term incumbent Michael Conaway is a George W. Bush crony from West Texas.  His opponent, Wade Brown, currently serves as an officer in the United States' Marine Corps reserve.  Brown is taking his second shot at Conaway, having waged an unsuccessful campaign in 2012.

Brown hit Conaway for his vote in favor of TARP in 2008 and several other atrocious pieces of legislation in the ensuing years.  Conaway made the same excuses D.C. Republicans always make.  As a point of comparison, Conaway's voting record is very similar to John Cornyn.

Brown, by contrast, offered a detailed plan to force Obama and Harry Reid to negotiate.  Brown's plan begins with across the board spending cuts to every line item of the Federal Budget and increases the political pain on Democrats from there.  In the event that Democrats refuse to negotiate, Wade Brown is willing to shut down the Federal Government indefinitely.

Brown hammered U.S. House Republicans, led by John Bohener, for their failure to stop Obama's illegal and unconstitutional war in Libya.  The Constitution and Federal law make clear that the President DOES NOT have the authority to commit American armed forces to a major conflict absent Congressional authorization.  Unfortunately, Republicans under John Bohener failed to stop Obama's war in Libya, and Benghazi was the result.

The candidates also clashed over John Bohener's "leadership" (or lack thereof).  Conaway said "Bohener's doing a good job."  Brown said Bohener "led the House the wrong way" and that "I'm not going to sacrifice my vote for the home team."

This is an interesting race.  It's not on anyone's radar screen outside the district.  Based on the crowd reaction in the packed room, however, it's obvious where the energy in this race lies.  While Brown's campaign is severely underfunded, Conaway's nervousness was palpable.  Keep an eye on CD-11 March 4th.

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We went out to lunch with some local Tea Party leaders after the forum.  We interviewed Wade Brown at lunch.  This is our interview:



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Visit Wade's website here; donate to his campaign here.