Showing posts with label Beto O'Rourke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beto O'Rourke. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar


"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:
A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”
We're of two minds about this:
  • Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
    • Note: This is the likely explanation.
** OR **
  • They know something the rest of us don't.
    • Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.
Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Huh?!?


"As a dog returns to his own vomit,
So a fool repeats his folly."
Proverbs 26:11

Umm...ok:


How...strange.

We will confess a certain degree of mixed feelings. Texas politics in general, and the Texas legislature specifically, is ripe for Seinfeld style satire. Done properly, it's potentially brilliant. Heaven knows, we already privately refer to a certain legislator as Kenny Bania.

But let's not kid ourselves: It won't be done properly. And this isn't about ridiculing the legislature. This is about Democrats trying to create buzz through Hollywood because they don't have anything substantive to say.

In that vein, it's completely tone deaf.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Seinfeld has a certain...geographic appeal. And the "geographic appeal" in question is certainly not Texas. While it's certainly the case that this author is a fan of the location in question, we're not exactly turning to them for political advice.

Put differently: Do you think anyone in New York City would care about what Hank Hill thinks?!?

Speaking of Hank Hill, it wouldn't have even been that difficult to do something similar with a Texas theme. King of the Hill. Matthew McConaughey. Heck, Bobby Francis O'Rourke did actual campaign events with Willie Nelson.

But, instead, Texas Democrats are going with George and Elaine from Seinfeld.

OK.

Bottom Line: We'll see how much it ultimately matters, but it's certainly a missed opportunity.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

O'Rourke Regressing to Mean Faster than the Boston Red Sox


"Therefore, leaving the discussion of the elementary principles of Christ, let us go on to perfection, not laying again the foundation of repentance from dead works and of faith toward God,"
Hebrews 6:1

DMN yesterday:
AUSTIN — Beto O’Rourke wants to do everything he can to help Democrats win the Texas House this November — even if that means ​staying off the campaign trail and sending his volunteers to work for another candidate without him.

Whether the former El Paso congressman and presidential candidate’s help is a liability is a question after ​the Houston-area Democratic state House candidate he campaigned for in a special election last month was routed by a Republican.

After the election, the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee​ ​advised its candidates​ in an email​ not to speak to an Associated Press reporter asking whether they would accept O’Rourke’s help with their campaigns.

“Our recommendation is to provide no comment,” Justin Perez, the group’s political director, told candidates in an email obtained by The Dallas Morning News.

O’Rourke said Thursday: "If ​my presence is unhelpful, I’ll stay as far away as I can. I have no pride in this. My only goal is to help secure a Democratic majority in the statehouse. My only goal is to stop Trump and Trumpism in what I think is the most important year in the history of this country and to do my part.”

O’Rourke’s statement may tamp down concerns about how his political views might play in more traditionally conservative Texas districts where Democrats are fielding strong candidates. His veer to the left during his presidential run in 2019 — especially his support of a mandatory gun buyback program — would create difficulties for campaigns trying to sway independent and moderate Republican voters.

Democrats hoped​ that the special election in Fort Bend County​ would be their first opportunity to make a dent in their nine-seat deficit in the House, but Republicans exploited O’Rourke’s work as a surrogate for the Democratic candidate, Eliz Markowitz, tying her to his record on guns and on revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that oppose same-sex marriage.

The Republican, Gary Gates, won that district by 16 percentage points — double the previous GOP margin of victory in the district — leaving Democrats to rethink their use of O’Rourke as a surrogate in future races.
 (h/t PushJunction)

The whole thing is worth a read.  The DMN talks to some experts and profiles some races.  As the sample size gets bigger, 2018 looks like much more of a fluke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke is the political equivalent to the Boston Red Sox during the Alex Cora era.

(Except that the Red Sox won something.)

As time has passed, however, we know the next few chapters in the Boston Red Sox saga.  They haven't been pretty.  The exact same thing is happening to Bobby Francis O'Rourke.

Bobby Francis O'Rourke was never that good.  The only reason the U.S. Senate race was close in 2018 was because Ted Cruz's campaign blew chunks.  O'Rourke just showed up, looked pretty, and kept it vague.

That playbook was always destined to have a limited shelf life.

That limited shelf life has now expired.

Bottom Line:  It should surprise nobody to see long-term historical averages reassert themselves.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

#TXLEGE: Worst Possible Republican Candidate > Entire Democrat Presidential Field


"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Hahahahahahahahahahaha:
Last night marked the completion of the first elections of 2020 as the spotlight centered on three runoff elections for Texas House seats. The marquee race was in Fort Bend County, which saw Republican Gary Gates square off against Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a runoff that received national attention and all but overshadowed even the most contentious primary races up until last night.

In what can only be described as a strong victory for the Texas GOP, Republican candidate Gary Gates won the special election runoff with 58 percent of the vote, defeating his opponent with a 16-point margin of victory.

Fort Bend County has been a hotbed of political activity since Rep. John Zerwas (R-Richmond) retired in September. Texas Democrats rallied in hopes this race would begin their steady climb to regain control of the Texas House.

State and national Democrats largely threw their support behind one candidate, Eliz Markowitz. Former congressman and one-time presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke spent countless hours campaigning for Markowitz in an attempt to galvanize his supporters to help win the seat for Texas Democrats.

O’Rourke threw rallies, block walked, fundraised, and was present with Markowitz on the ground all throughout election day.

Political heavyweights like Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Wendy Davis all supported Markowitz either by endorsing her candidacy or even, in Bloomberg’s case, coming to Texas to knock on doors for the candidate.

National and state special interest groups, including the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Texas-based progressive women’s group Annie’s List, took advantage of the unorthodox election date and spent concentrated time, money, and attention on House District 28.

Altogether, approximately $1 million was spent on this state house race by Democrats and left-leaning allies.
 This is bad if you're a Democrat.

It's not just that the Democrats lost.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout after dropping seven figures.

It's that the Democrats lost, in a blowout, after dropping seven figures...to Gary frickin' Gates.

That would be the same Gary Gates who, prior to last night, was a seven time loser.

Yet Democrats failed.

It's pretty funny.

Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Three months ago, we outlined the degree to which Gary Gates was a terrible candidate.  There's an opposition research file an inch thick floating around on that guy.  For crying out loud, dude's a slumlord who made his money ripping off taxpayers.

But did the Democrats bring any of that up?!?  Not really.  The one time they tried to wade into any of it, they did it so poorly that it backfired.

Instead, Democrats gave us: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Bobby Francis O'Rourke...and redistricting.

And nobody cared.

What's even funnier is that Democrats didn't even heed the lessons of their own previous victories.  Typically, when Democrats are successful in swing areas, it's because they run vague campaigns about public education and traffic.  But they didn't do that this time.

Instead, they rolled out the list of national politicians listed above.  And they made redistricting the single substantive issue of their campaign.  And they lost.

To Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Miscellaneous takeaways:
  • Voters don't care about redistricting -- This was the one substantive issue on which Democrats ran.  The results speak for themselves.  Turns out whining about how you can't rig the system to benefit yourself (which you're totally mad at the other guys for doing that) isn't a winning message.  Go figure.
  • The Democrat presidential field sucks -- Five Democrat presidential candidates literally lost to Gary frickin' Gates.
  • Julian Castro and Bobby Francis O'Rourke will never be elected statewide.
    • Note: Only possible exception is a national environment that's 5 to 7 points worse for the GOP than 2018.
Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Bottom Line: Pretty funny.

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Bye Bobby Francis


"A prudent man conceals knowledge,
But the heart of fools proclaims foolishness."
Proverbs 12:23

UNINTENTIONAL COMEDY GOLD:
Hundreds of supporters of Beto O’Rourke had come in from all over the country to cheer their candidate on at the big Democratic dinner, which launches the final stretch toward next February’s Iowa caucuses. Sure, they knew what the polls were saying, but their hopes were telling them something else. So they stood for hours Friday along the streets of downtown Des Moines in a freezing drizzle, waving their signs at passing cars.

Looking for a chance to dry out and warm up before the big event Friday night, three Texans — Brenda Guillen, a retired educator; Rocio Dumey, a second-grade teacher; and Elle Franklin, who does pet services — had found seats at the bar of the Residence Inn, across the street from the Wells Fargo Arena, where the dinner was to take place. They were making small talk with a couple of O’Rourke campaign staffers when the two campaign staffers suddenly excused themselves. Something about having to jump on a conference call.

When I came across them a few minutes later, Guillen and Dumey were finishing their Moscow Mules, and Franklin was downing an IPA. All three wore cheery blue O’Rourke campaign T-shirts touting the evening’s “Liberty and Justice Celebration” — and all of them were starting to cry. Thanks to the fact that CNN was on the screen behind the bar, they had just learned that O’Rourke had dropped out of the 2020 presidential race.

....

In the hotel lobby, I found Todd O’Day, who works for Microsoft in Seattle, and Scott Braymer, who develops apps in Santa Cruz, Calif.. They were still composed, but by the time we finished talking, they too were crying.
Read the whole thing here.

Bottom Line: Honestly, we just wanted to use that picture.

Saturday, July 27, 2019

#TXLEGE, #TXSEN: Royce West, Borris Miles, and a test of oppo research


Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”
1 Corinthians 15:33

[Note: Just for fun, imagine the reaction if any Republican candidate in a similar situation had secured an endorsement from Charles Schwertner.] 

Texas Tribune, Thursday:
[Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Royce] West has suggested he is optimistic that he can be more than just a Dallas-centric candidate by tapping into his legislative relationships throughout the state. He wasted little time proving that after his announcement as he earned endorsements from state Sens. Carol Alvarado and Borris Miles, both from Houston. And state Sens. Jose Menendez of San Antonio and Jose Rodriguez of El Paso attended the announcement itself.

[Note: Emphasis added.]
We remarked shortly thereafter:



It's now been two full days, and nobody has commented.

In case you've forgotten why an endorsement from Borris frickin' Miles might be considered a big deal:
Lauren*, a Texas legislative intern, was standing underneath the bright blue-and-red neon sign of The Continental Club, a famed Austin bar frequented by schmoozing politicians, lobbyists, and reporters.

That week in May 2013 was filled to the brim with end-of-session (“sine die”) parties, and Lauren was with a group of other interns on South Congress when Democratic state Rep. Borris Miles pulled up.

According to Lauren, Miles leaned out of the carriage he was riding in and pulled out a large roll of money. He handed “maybe $500” to an intern and then looked at Lauren.

“You know how you have the roll of hundreds that you see on TV? It was like that,” Lauren told The Daily Beast.

“I said, ‘Hi Representative, how are you?’ Then he slowly looked me up and down, counted out more money, reached out his hand and said, ‘Bitch, you want to fuck with me tonight?’

“I said ‘No, thank you’ and physically stepped back,” Lauren recalled. “I didn’t want to be rude to him. I remember his intern pacifying him and saying, ‘It’s time to go.’

“Everyone was just shocked that he said that—that he cussed at me and that he was offering me money. It was outrageous,” she continued. “I just remember thinking, ‘I need to go, and I need to not be here anymore.’”
And this:
One time, Chris said, he “witnessed [Miles] catcalling women in Downtown Austin on the way back from a Spurs game, and there had to have been at least 15 or 16 other members that were there because it was a member event.”

The Spurs had played the Lakers that April, and the lawmakers went together to San Antonio to watch one of the games. “As we’re driving back towards the W, he’s hanging out of the open door of the bus and shouting at women,” said Chris.

Chris could not recall the catcalls specifically but said, “It was not something that I would want shouted at anyone.”

Chris’ chief of staff confirmed to The Daily Beast that he heard about the alleged catcalling the next morning.
And this:
Ben*, a former staffer who recently worked in the Capitol and “spent a lot of time with Miles,” said he witnessed the then-state representative “forcibly kiss” at least one woman at the W Hotel.

“He offered to buy her a drink, kept trying to kiss her, and she kept trying to push him away,” said Ben. “He kept laughing about it.

“It was so creepy, and he had this big smile,” said Ben. “Borris loves the W Hotel, and he has a tendency to force himself upon women at bars and kiss them or grope them. He’ll tell them that he is a higher elected official than he actually is.”

....

“He also has a tendency to call women out of their name when they turn him down,” he said. “‘Bitch,’ ‘ho,’ ‘whore.’ He doesn’t like being told ‘no.’
And this:
When Heather* first covered the Texas Legislature as a journalist in 2011, she was repeatedly targeted by Miles, she told The Daily Beast in a story published last month.

Late one night when the legislature was in session, Heather was reporting on HB 400, which would have scrapped Texas’ law mandating class size ratio. Miles famously used a point of order to defeat the bill, landing him the title of Star of the 2011 Legislative Session by the Texas Classroom Teachers Association.

Heather said she had been trying to get details about the bill negotiations, when that night, around midnight, Miles cornered her in a hallway and forcibly kissed her outside the House chamber.

“It happened quickly,” Heather said, noting that Miles laughed afterward. “I think he thought it was hilarious.”

“He’d said several times already, ‘If you go out to dinner with me, I’d be happy to give you the details,’ and I’d sort of laugh it off but it was weird and obviously gross.”
You can read the full report here.

So, yeah, that guy made an endorsement in the current U.S. Senate race.

Yet neither MJ Hegar nor John Cornyn seem to care.

Odd.

Obviously, this is a longstanding beef for this author.

Last election cycle, we discovered that Beto O'Rourke likewise did a campaign event with Borris Miles.  In addition to writing a blog post, we also passed that information along to both the Cruz campaign and the RPT chairman.  Unfortunately, neither did anything with that information.

This time around, the difference is that this author doesn't particularly care who wins the U.S. Senate race.  So we're not going to tell any campaigns.  But we mentioned them by name, so they'll get the Google alerts.

Bottom Line: Any campaign that allows an opponent to get away with touting an endorsement from someone with Borris Miles' "alleged" record is completely incompetent and deserves to lose....

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Dana Loesch's Counterproductive Misdiagnosis


"For every man threw down his rod, and they became serpents. But Aaron’s rod swallowed up their rods."
Exodus 7:12

Dana Loesch is a friend of this website.  We've known each other for many years.  We've been on her show.

Thus, we appreciate her discussing Texas-specific challenges last night on Twitter.

Unfortunately, however, her diagnosis misses the mark.

Specifically, she says:

She's not wrong that this is a problem. But it's not one that's caused by the state party.  The state party are the ones trying to remedy the situation.

The problem, unfortunately, is that Republicans don't vote in local elections. Nothing more. Nothing less. There's only so much a political party can do when citizens are apathetic.

Furthermore, to make that accusation against a state party chairman who helped elect three Republicans to the Austin City Council is historically ignorant.



More accurate statement: In 2020, the Texas GOP needs an affirmative record of accomplishments on which to run.  If that happens, they're fine.  They'll probably even pick up a few of the state rep seats they lost last fall.

Unfortunately, given where we are in the session, the odds of that happening are cloudy at best....


You can't organize if you don't have a record on which to run.


Perhaps, to a degree. Democrats certainly have more data than they did five years ago. But none of that matters if Republicans are giving their own voters a reason to show up.
Again, Dana's correct to recognize a problem.   We're glad she did.  But the problem is the elected officials, not the state party.

A few other points:
  • Anyone who wants to understand why the left has newfound momentum in Texas needs to look at Trump.  Anyone who pretends otherwise is either foolish or in denial.  If reading that last sentence made you angry, then you're part of the problem.
  • We wouldn't be in this mess if national conservative media hadn't spent the past decade giving Greg Abbott softball interviews.
  • A word or two about election integrity (esp. in Dallas, Hays, and Travis counties) would have been helpful.
  • There's still time to get these trends moving in the right direction during the current legislative session, if anyone wants to help.
Bottom Line: We appreciate the attention, we just wish it were focused on the real problem....

Friday, March 15, 2019

Early returns on O'Rourke's Presidential Campaign illustrate Cruz's Cataclysmic FAILURE last year


"[H]e is a double-minded man, unstable in all his ways."
James 1:8

Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's running.  Nobody's surprised.  That being said, we have one observation.

Why, pray tell, have we heard more about O'Rourke's Billionaire daddy-in-law during the past day and a half than we did during the year and a half long U.S. Senate campaign?!?

The obvious answer is that the media cares about such things more now than they did at the time.  There's a lot of truth to that.  But, even so, that's not good enough.

The evidence that O'Rourke abused his authority, to steal land from poor people of color, all to benefit his billionaire daddy-in-law, was always hiding in plain sight.

Throughout last year's U.S. Senate race, we made the point that O'Rourke was nothing more than a typical scumbag Texas politician over and over and over again.  Without getting into too much detail, we made similar points privately to the Cruz campaign (using much stronger language).  Unfortunately, this aspect of O'Rourke's record was, at best, underutilized.

Instead, Cruz's team decided to make the election about hair dye (we all know how that turned out).

Bottom Line: Better late than never (perhaps)....

Monday, January 21, 2019

Shelia Jackson Lee, Harris County D's, Need to Answer VERY Serious Questions


"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

ICYMI, late last week:
WASHINGTON — A former staffer for Texas Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee claims in a new lawsuit that the lawmaker retaliated against her and fired her because she was planning to pursue legal action over an alleged rape by a former employee of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation.

The woman, identified in court papers by the pseudonym Jane Doe, alleges she was raped in October 2015, when she was a 19-year-old intern for the CBCF, by the foundation’s intern coordinator at the time, Damien Jones. The woman said she reported the alleged rape to police and told several people, including Rep. Terri Sewell, her former boss and a distant relative of her mother’s, but did not pursue legal action at the time.

Several years later, when Jane Doe was working for Jackson Lee, the woman decided she did want to pursue legal action, and told Jackson Lee’s chief of staff Glenn Rushing in early March 2018. The woman alleges that she asked to speak with Jackson Lee about it, but a meeting never happened, and several weeks later she was fired. Jackson Lee is chair of the board for the CBCF.

Jones did not return requests for comment. After leaving the CBCF in late 2015, he continued to work in Democratic politics and recently served as the regional political director for former representative Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign. Chris Evans, a spokesperson for the O’Rourke campaign, said in an email to BuzzFeed News, “The Beto for Texas campaign was absolutely not aware of these allegations until today and no longer has a relationship with Damien Jones.”

Rushing told BuzzFeed News in a phone call that “We had nothing to do with any of the actions that have been cited and the person was not wrongfully terminated.” He declined to answer additional questions.

Jackson Lee's office later released a statement pointing to the congresswoman's record on civil rights and non-discrimination measures, and saying that the office "adamantly denies the allegations that it retaliated against, or otherwise improperly treated, the plaintiff. It is against office policy to discuss specific details about internal personnel matters."

"Although the Congresswoman is eager to respond substantively, she will do so only at the appropriate time, as the court docket dictates. The Congresswoman is confident that, once all of the facts come to light, her Office will be exonerated of any retaliatory or otherwise improper conduct and this matter will be put to rest," Jackson Lee's office said. "While we still deny the allegations, we are especially concerned about Ms. Doe and only want the best for her and the many, many young people that the Congressional office has supported, encouraged, and provided opportunities for over 20 years."

Marc Banks, a spokesperson for the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a phone interview that he did not know whether there had been any communication between the foundation and Jackson Lee's office about the rape allegation against Jones or Jane Doe's plan to sue the foundation. But he said that a decision to fire a congressional staffer was "outside the purview of the foundation."

"We would have no reason to harm the former intern," Banks said.

Banks said that the foundation took "immediate and swift action" to fire Jones after investigating Jane Doe's allegations, but he was "not privy" to what the foundation learned in the course of that review.

....

In late 2017, Jane Doe took a job in Jackson Lee’s congressional office. Soon after she was hired, according to the lawsuit, Jane Doe learned that Jones might be hired in Jackson Lee’s office, and she told Rushing that she had a “prior situation” with Jones and would not be comfortable working together. Rushing allegedly told her that he understood and didn’t end up hiring Jones “because he had a situation with CBCF and they could not have him working in the office as a result.”

In early March 2018, Jane Doe told Rushing that she had learned “more about her case involving Mr. Jones and CBCF” and was planning to go forward with legal action, according to the complaint. Jane Doe said she asked to speak with Jackson Lee, and Rushing agreed, but no meeting took place. On March 29, she said she was told she was being fired because of budget issues.

Jane Doe’s lawsuit describes times she said she spent driving Jackson Lee in her personal car she and alleges she was pressured by Jackson Lee and Rushing to get a new car after her car was damaged in an accident. When she was fired, she said that in addition to being told it was because of budget issues, that Rushing also told her, “It didn’t help that you lied about the car.” It was not immediately clear from court filings what that was a reference to.

Jane Doe alleges that the budget-related explanation was a pretext and that Jackson Lee retaliated against her for planning to take action against the CBCF related to the alleged rape.
Over the weekend:
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is refusing demands to step down as leader of the Congressional Black Caucus’ nonprofit arm amid claims she fired one of her congressional staffers over rape allegations.

Jackson Lee was told by the CBC Foundation’s board to resign during a lengthy call on Thursday night, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation. Jackson Lee resisted those demands, and the call abruptly ended as other board members were trying to figure out how to continue the conversation without the Texas Democrat.

Jackson Lee has also been pressured by leadership within the CBC to step down from her position with the foundation, according to one of the sources. The foundation’s board was expected to have another emergency call Friday night to assess the situation.

....

Following Jackson Lee’s refusal to step aside, at least one board member stepped down, and sources with knowledge of the situation say more are expected to follow if Lee remains. Cathy Hughes, a media executive and entrepreneur, resigned from the board, according to the two sources. Hughes, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment.
Wow.

This looks like a very serious situation.  Obviously, we don't know all the facts.  But some early questions are unavoidable.

 Among them:
  • What was the nature of the alleged "budget issue" that caused Shelia Jackson Lee to fire Jane Doe?!?
  • Why the heck would Sheila Jackson Lee hire someone with this much baggage in the first place?!?
  • Did Shelia Jackson Lee ever inform the O'Rourke campaign about the accusations against Damien Jones?!?
That last question is especially relevant given that Damien Jones is accused of raping a young woman who was his direct professional subordinate.

The best case scenario is grotesque negligence mixed with an awfully big coincidence.  Not impossible...but the odds seem long.  Possibilities get worse from there.

-------

O'Rourke:



National conservative media outlets are trying to make this about O'Rourke.  That's a mistake.  While things could change, we believe Shelia Jackson Lee bears significantly more culpability than O'Rourke.  It was Lee's responsibility to inform O'Rourke, not vice versa.

Except...for Borris Miles.

During the campaign, we made a big deal out of the fact that O'Rourke held a campaign event with Borris Miles [Note: THIS Borris Miles].  We didn't remark upon it at the time, but Shelia Jackson Lee was the third elected official at that event.  Given what we've just learned about Damien Jones being the link between O'Rourke and Shelia Jackson Lee, to also include Borris Miles at that event seems...newly significant.

The Texas Observer has more:
At a block-walk event on Houston’s South Side earlier that day, Damien Jones, Beto’s political director for the Houston area, laid out the stakes. “Two years ago,” Jones pronounced in his red Chucks and a black-and-white “BETO” trucker hat, “many of us had many regrets about what happened — that we didn’t do enough. This is the time to leave it all on the field. We can’t have any regrets this time.”

O’Rourke has assembled perhaps the most impressive ground game of any statewide Democrat in a generation — and the campaign is trying to reach deep into black communities.
In other words, the O'Rourke campaign was trying to "reach deep into black communities" by hiring Damien Jones to work with Borris Friggin' Miles.

"Reach deep into" indeed.

-------

Other Harris County Democrats (especially Sylvester Turner):

As the de facto leader of the Democrats in Harris County, Mayor Turner could clean up this activity if he wanted.

Instead, from Friday night:

Earlier Today:


In other words, in light of what we learned last week, the de facto leader of the Democrats chose to attend 2 events with Shelia Jackson Lee (one of which also included Borris Miles).

Furthermore, consider that in the picture with O'Rourke shown above, Rodney Ellis is the third person in the photo.

So you've got Rodney Ellis hanging out with Damien Jones at the same time you've got Sylvester Turner doing events with Shelia Jackson Lee and Borris Miles.

With this much smoke, imagine the fire.

-------

Bottom Line: There seem to be an awfully high number of awfully big coincidences surrounding this story.  Most, though certainly not all, seem to surround Shelia Jackson Lee.  She's certainly the best place to start....

Monday, December 31, 2018

O'Rourke belatedly makes not bad point about the border


"So then, my beloved brethren, let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak, slow to wrath"
James 1:19

(Soon-to-be-former) Congressman O'Rourke recently released a video about the border:



The video has received a fair amount of commentary, but there's one point on which we want to linger:


He's...not wrong.

Illegal border crossings have been declining for a decade.  More of today's illegal immigration comes from visa overstays.  If were serious about solving illegal immigration, it's a point we'd be wise to remember.

It's also, if you're looking for a credible alternative to the current narrative about border security, not a bad point to hammer.

Still, coming from O'Rourke this is...a missed opportunity...at best.

This is a guy who just subjected us to a year and a half long campaign.  During said campaign, he could have driven a more intelligent discussion of border security.  Instead, he gave us cliches and vague platitudes.  We might not have voted for him, but it would have made the U.S. Senate campaign less dumb.

Bottom Line: He's not wrong, but it sure would have been nice if he'd started making this point a year and a half ago....

Saturday, November 10, 2018

About Ted Cruz's act of Political MALPRACTICE


"If anyone’s work is burned, he will suffer loss; but he himself will be saved, yet so as through fire."
1 Corinthians 3:15

Yesterday, we said that Ted Cruz's failures this cycle "deserve their own blog post;" consider this that.

Cruz's campaign was godawful.  While there were structural national/presidential factors that would have made this race closer than what Texans have grown used to, Cruz's unforced errors made those problems infinitely worse.  Or, at least, 2.5% worse.

Where to begin?!?

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Presidential Campaign Baggage:

Let's start with the biggie: Lots of people, including lots of Texas voters, first paid attention to Cruz during the presidential campaign.

They did not like what they saw.

Cruz's primary problem, before any others, is that he's been all over the map on Trump: First he was for him.  Then he was against him.  Then he dissed him at the convention.  Then he caved on the convention diss.  Then he spent the past two years getting as close to Trump as possible.

That doesn't look good.

Those decisions made sense at the time.  But they've combined to create a bad impression (especially among those who don't follow politics closely).  That's reality.

If you're a member of the original #CruzCrew, you have to understand most of the public never met the Ted Cruz you got to know in 2012.  In all likelihood, they've never met Ted.  If you've known the junior U.S. Senator from Texas long enough that you call him by his first name, you're not a typical voter.

And the whole convention diss/cave has proven disastrous.  If you're going to do something like that, stick with it.  If you're not going to stick with it, don't do it in the first place.

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Bad non-verbal communication:

This is another one that people who interact with Ted Cruz personally have trouble grasping: He doesn't come across well on TV or in a large group setting.

A lot of the time, Ted Cruz is physically tense.  HE'S LITERALLY A STIFF.  It's just part of who he is, but it's a big problem.

It's why he gives so many people (who've never met him) the heebie-jeebies.

Against a candidate like O'Rourke who, whatever his other flaws, is clearly comfortable in his own skin, this was almost fatal.

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An arrogant, insular, campaign:

Who gets into a two week argument with your strongest supporters over yard signs?!?

The 2018 Ted Cruz re-election campaign, that's who!!!

It would be impossible to list the number of complaints we've heard from core, longstanding, supporters over the past year.  These are the people who will bring voters to the polls on your behalf on their own time and dime.  Ted Cruz has plenty of them in Texas.

And the Cruz campaign forced them to waste time arguing with them.

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Failure to effectively define O'Rourke:

The Cruz campaign defined O'Rourke as an "open borders socialist."  That's not wrong.  But to the average person, it's a bunch of buzzwords.

Furthermore, those type of buzzwords only strengthened O'Rourke's connection with his own supporters.

During this campaign, we pointed out over and over and over again that O'Rourke has been nothing more than a typical Texas politician throughout his career.

Had the Cruz campaign pushed this narrative, it could have shattered the idea that O'Rourke was anything "fresh" or "new" or "post-partisan."

While Cruz's campaign did use the El Paso eminent domain story, it did so with a fraction of the effectiveness that could have been.  Imagine the wedge issue this could have been with O'Rourke's younger supporters.  O'Rourke literally used the power of government to take the houses of poor/middle income Hispanics to give to his rich Daddy-in-law.

Speaking of O'Rourke's daddy-in-law, how come we only found out that guy's worth $20 BILLION from Glenn Beck less than a week before election day?!?

It was the worst failure at defining your opponent since McCain and Obama.

-------

Borris FRIGGIN' Miles:

Obviously, this one's a personal pet peeve; it combines the insularity of the campaign with their failure to effectively define O'Rourke.

On September 24, this website discovered that O'Rourke had recently held a campaign event with Borris Miles.  Yes, THIS BORRIS MILES.  For those unaware, Borris Miles is one of the best known skeezballs in the Texas legislature (see previous hyperlink).

This was another opportunity to drive a wedge between O'Rourke and his younger supporters.  We told the Cruz campaign.  They did nothing.

Most infuriating: Ted Cruz was asked a direct question about the #MeToo movement during the final debate.

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Health Care Freedom:

Over the past year and a half, we have pointed out over, and over, and over, and over, and over again that Cruz was missing opportunities on health care.

When he discusses it, Ted Cruz is one of the GOP's best spokespeople on health care.

At any point during the presidential campaign, last year's Congressional debate, or this year's re-elect campaign...if Ted Cruz has put together a "health care freedom" plan, we wouldn't be in the mess we currently find ourselves.

-------

We've seen and heard (*) talk about shortcomings of various campaign staff.  There's probably some truth to some of it.  It's probably also true that a lot of is score-settling by consultants looking for future business.  Regardless, all final decisions on a campaign rest with the candidate.

* -- And EXPERIENCED (see previous section on Borris Miles).

-------

Barring some sort outside event that changes public perceptions, Ted Cruz is DONE as a presidential candidate.

-------

Bottom Line: This DISASTER was completely preventable....

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

How many Democrats are voting for Abbott?!?


"And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free."
John 8:32

It's been noted throughout this cycle that Abbott's polling numbers have been consistently better than Cruz's.

RCP average for both:


Obviously, a lot has been written about Republicans crossing over for Bobby Francis.  In whatever "x" percentage they might be, those people do exist.  But we suspect they're only part of the story.

The only way these numbers make sense is if there are also a significant number of Democrats voting for Abbott.  Abbott's numbers are too high to explain any other way.  What else makes sense?!?

Case in point: Yesterday the Dallas CBS affiliate released a poll that had Cruz up by 10...and Abbott up by 26.  Cruz's +10 is fairly normal for a Republican in a statewide race.  Indeed, the rest of the Republican ticket had numbers within a similar range as Cruz.  But there's no way Abbott gets to +26 without significant cross-party support.

Bottom Line: There's a chance Cruz underperforms the rest of the Republican ticket, but there's an equal or greater chance that Abbott overperforms it.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Southwest Texas' ASTONISHING shift to the Right


"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

One week ago:
History was made today in the Texas Senate chamber as Pete Flores, a retired game warden from South Texas, was sworn in as the state’s first Hispanic Republican State Senator.

Flores won the seat in a special election last month in a surprise victory that surprised political onlookers statewide. Many had written off Flores’ hopes of winning the seat. However, Flores ran an aggressive campaign matched by a surge of grassroots energy in the district. Add to that the support of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Texans for Fiscal Responsibility and Flores ultimately carried the day.

Previously occupied by Democrat State Sen. Carlos Uresti—who was forced to resign from office after being convicted of several federal crimes and sentenced to prison—Senate District 19 had not been held by a Republican since Reconstruction.
Yesterday:

These are both astonishing.

The Texas Observer notices:
The 23rd Congressional District is Texas’ one true swing district. It forms a claw that holds on to the heart of San Antonio and then stretches west all along the border to El Paso County. It’s a gigantic district, encompassing two time zones as well as about two-thirds of the Texas-Mexico border, and it’s more than 70 percent Latino.

If a backlash to Trump — the president who demonizes Mexican Americans, separates children from their parents at the border and obsesses about building a border wall — were to materialize anywhere, you would think it would be here.

But in Texas, perennial concerns about low Latino turnout are again rearing their head. “If you were banking on the Bexar County Democratic Party to carry a heavy share of the load [in the 23rd], you probably want to rethink your plan,” Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, warned.
It's quite something.

A few observations:
  •  Strong Border Security positions help in November -- While Hurd is a sometimes squish, Flores isn't.  That this is happening at the same time as Trump is doing what he's doing (and the legislature is, however reluctantly, doing what they're doing) tells you everything you need to know.  If the GOP's immigration position were "toxic,' they wouldn't be winning in Southwest Texas.
  • The Failure to address Carlos Uresti has cost Democrats DEARLY -- Another observation we've made previously.  But all they had to do was do the right thing when either the financial or the sexual stuff came out.  But they didn't....
  • Southwest Texas REALLY isn't into Bobby Francis -- These are the same counties that he lost in his primary disaster.
Bottom Line: This is VERY bad news for the Democrats....

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

#TXSen, #TexasDebate: Three Missed Opportunities for Cruz


"He who despises the word will be destroyed,
But he who fears the commandment will be rewarded."
Proverbs 13:13

Last night's debate was a bad sequel.   Both candidates regressed to stale talking points.  Following a solid opening act, the (likely) final debate was a depressing example of two people talking past each other.  Both get a "C."

Of course, a debate where the candidates hold serve benefits the status quo.  Obviously, Cruz is winning.  In that sense, Cruz accomplished everything he had to accomplish.

Still, Cruz missed several opportunities to turn this race into a blowout:
  • Debt -- Perhaps the funniest part of the debate was Bobby Francis pretending to care about the national debt.  Apparently, for Bobby Francis, the national debt justifies an inefficient tax code.  Bobby Francis repeatedly cited the national debt as a reason to oppose the modest tax code streamlining that Congress passed last year.

    Cruz responded by talking about the relationship between economic growth and federal revenue.  Specifically, he discussed how a more efficient tax code leads to more revenue.  He's not wrong.  But it's still a complicated argument the average voter doesn't understand.

    Imagine, instead, if Cruz said the following: "The reason we have a $21 Trillion debt is not because the American people are taxed too little.  The reason we have a $21 Trillion national debt is because the Federal Government SPENDS TOO MUCH.  As a United States Senator, NOBODY has fought to curtail federal spending harder than I have.  Unfortunately, too many of my colleagues (in both parties) see it differently.  While that is an unfortunate reality, nothing good can come from turning a United States Senate seat over to a Congressman who never met a spending bill he didn't like."

    From a policy perspective, such an answer would also account for the fact that government spending stifles economic growth.
  • Health Care -- Cruz did an acceptable job pointing out the shortcomings of Bobby Francis' positions, but he continues to underperform on this issue.

    Bobby Francis supports government run health care.  Cruz correctly discussed the cost and inevitable rationing of such folly.  Cruz even, correctly, brought up the British National Health Service.  But imagine what could have happened if Cruz had forced Bobby Francis to defend what the British NHS did to Baby Alfie.

    Finally, Cruz would have been wise to contrast the opportunities offered by free-market health care vs. Bobby Francis' socialist nightmare.
  • #MeToo -- How many times do we have to repeat it?!?  BOBBY.  FRANCIS.  O'ROURKE.  HELD.  A.  CAMPAIGN.  EVENT.  WITHBORRISMILES.

    Yes, this Borris Miles.

    Imagine if, in addition to the answer he gave, Cruz had contrasted how the Texas GOP dealt with Barton/Farenthold with how the D's (incl. Bobby Francis) dealt with Miles/Uresti.  Cruz's answer was fine, but this could have been a knockout blow.  Missed opportunity.

    The worst part is that he was asked a direct question.
Bottom Line: It was fine, but it could have been much more.

Friday, October 12, 2018

#TXSEN: Campaign Vendors continue Fleecing Gullible Liberals


"Why is there in the hand of a fool the purchase price of wisdom,
Since he has no heart for it?"
Proverbs 17:16

LOL:
U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, raised $38.1 million for his U.S. Senate campaign in the third quarter, a new record for the largest fundraising quarter ever in a U.S. Senate race, according to his campaign.

The haul more than tripled Republican incumbent Ted Cruz's fundraising for the past three months, which Cruz has said was over $12 million. O'Rourke has consistently raised more than Cruz in the race, but this is the widest gap yet. The $38.1 million is by far the largest amount raised in a quarter by a Senate candidate, surpassing Republican Rick Lazio's record of $22 million in 2000 for his bid against Democrat Hillary Clinton in New York.
Soo...Bobby Francis is shattering fundraising records.  That's not new.  But what can he show for it?!?

For starters, he has no field operation.  We live in East Austin.  This is exactly the type of neighborhood where D's have to maximize turnout (high likelihood to vote D/low likelihood to vote in the first place) if they're to have any chance statewide.  The Texas Observer has observed a similar phenomenon in similar neighborhoods in South Texas.

Back in July, we took a deeper look at Bobby Francis' campaign expenditures.    The obvious conclusion is the the overwhelming majority of it was going to out of state vendors.  We haven't had time to parse the latest numbers but, given the recent trajectory of the campaign, it seems likely that the previously observed trend continues.

Bottom Line: During the Obama era, especially in his second term, there were a proliferation of so-called "scam PAC's."  These were entities that raised large sums for their staffs and vendors, but spent little of the money on actual political activity.  Bobby Francis' campaign looks to be something similar for the Trump era.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

#TXSEN: How Bobby Francis Appeases anti-Semites


"I will bless those who bless you,
And I will curse him who curses you;
And in you all the families of the earth shall be blessed."
Genesis 12:3

We've previously discussed the anti-Semites funding Bobby Francis' campaign; the Times of Israel documents what he's already given them:
Rep. O’Rourke has voted AGAINST overwhelmingly bipartisan pro-Israel positions on,
  • Emergency Iron Dome Supplemental Funding during the Gaza War of 2014 (Protective Edge);
  • the House Resolution of Disapproval on the Iran Nuclear Agreement,
  • the House Resolution Condemning UNSCR 2334 (the Anti-Israel UNSC Resolution), and
  • several Iran sanctions legislation.
To put this into context, out of 435 Members of the House of Representatives, he was:
  • one of only 8 to vote against the emergency funding of Iron Dome,
  • one of only 20 to vote against the Royce/Engel Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013,
  • one of only 80 to vote against condemning the UNSCR 2334,
  • one of only 162 to vote against the consensus pro-Israel position on the Iran Nuclear Agreement, and
  • one of only 48 members of Congress to boycott the address of the Prime Minister of Israel to a joint session of Congress.
You can learn more about the well documented anti-Semitism of the Iranian government here.

Bottom Line: Texas was one of the first states in the nation to take in holocaust refugees so, well, good luck with that....

Monday, September 24, 2018

#TXSEN: People who live in Glass Houses shouldn't Throw Stones


"Hypocrite! First remove the plank from your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye."
Matthew 7:5

Took less than 5 seconds on Google.

Shot, from Friday night:
“Dr. Ford’s allegations should be investigated by the FBI. Full stop,” O’Rourke said. “There is precedent for that,” he said, referring to Anita Hill, who accused Justice Clarence Thomas of sexually harassing her when he was her boss at a federal agency.
Chaser, from August:



In other words: The guy going after Brett Kavanaugh over sexual misconduct allegations is doing campaign events with...BORRIS friggin' MILES?!?

We weren't the only one to notice:


In case you forgot:
Lauren*, a Texas legislative intern, was standing underneath the bright blue-and-red neon sign of The Continental Club, a famed Austin bar frequented by schmoozing politicians, lobbyists, and reporters.

That week in May 2013 was filled to the brim with end-of-session (“sine die”) parties, and Lauren was with a group of other interns on South Congress when Democratic state Rep. Borris Miles pulled up.

According to Lauren, Miles leaned out of the carriage he was riding in and pulled out a large roll of money. He handed “maybe $500” to an intern and then looked at Lauren.

“You know how you have the roll of hundreds that you see on TV? It was like that,” Lauren told The Daily Beast.

“I said, ‘Hi Representative, how are you?’ Then he slowly looked me up and down, counted out more money, reached out his hand and said, ‘Bitch, you want to fuck with me tonight?’

“I said ‘No, thank you’ and physically stepped back,” Lauren recalled. “I didn’t want to be rude to him. I remember his intern pacifying him and saying, ‘It’s time to go.’

“Everyone was just shocked that he said that—that he cussed at me and that he was offering me money. It was outrageous,” she continued. “I just remember thinking, ‘I need to go, and I need to not be here anymore.’”
And this:
One time, Chris said, he “witnessed [Miles] catcalling women in Downtown Austin on the way back from a Spurs game, and there had to have been at least 15 or 16 other members that were there because it was a member event.”

The Spurs had played the Lakers that April, and the lawmakers went together to San Antonio to watch one of the games. “As we’re driving back towards the W, he’s hanging out of the open door of the bus and shouting at women,” said Chris.

Chris could not recall the catcalls specifically but said, “It was not something that I would want shouted at anyone.”

Chris’ chief of staff confirmed to The Daily Beast that he heard about the alleged catcalling the next morning.
And this:
Ben*, a former staffer who recently worked in the Capitol and “spent a lot of time with Miles,” said he witnessed the then-state representative “forcibly kiss” at least one woman at the W Hotel.

“He offered to buy her a drink, kept trying to kiss her, and she kept trying to push him away,” said Ben. “He kept laughing about it.

“It was so creepy, and he had this big smile,” said Ben. “Borris loves the W Hotel, and he has a tendency to force himself upon women at bars and kiss them or grope them. He’ll tell them that he is a higher elected official than he actually is.”

....

“He also has a tendency to call women out of their name when they turn him down,” he said. “‘Bitch,’ ‘ho,’ ‘whore.’ He doesn’t like being told ‘no.’
And this:
When Heather* first covered the Texas Legislature as a journalist in 2011, she was repeatedly targeted by Miles, she told The Daily Beast in a story published last month.

Late one night when the legislature was in session, Heather was reporting on HB 400, which would have scrapped Texas’ law mandating class size ratio. Miles famously used a point of order to defeat the bill, landing him the title of Star of the 2011 Legislative Session by the Texas Classroom Teachers Association.

Heather said she had been trying to get details about the bill negotiations, when that night, around midnight, Miles cornered her in a hallway and forcibly kissed her outside the House chamber.

“It happened quickly,” Heather said, noting that Miles laughed afterward. “I think he thought it was hilarious.”

“He’d said several times already, ‘If you go out to dinner with me, I’d be happy to give you the details,’ and I’d sort of laugh it off but it was weird and obviously gross.”
You can read the full Daily Beast report here.

There you have it.

Obviously, this is not to belittle the accusations against Brett Kavanaugh.  Those accusations are serious and should be investigated in the most judicious manner possible.  Unfortunately, we suspect that the atmosphere has been so poisoned that doing so might now be impossible.

That being said, however one feels about Kavanaugh, it's impossible to deny that the accusations against Miles have significantly better sourcing.

Anybody who knows this author knows there are few things we loathe more than when serious allegations of sexual misconduct are interpreted through the lens of mindless, rank, partisanship.  This website has called for politicians from across the political spectrum [Note: Including Borris Miles!!!] to resign over this garbage.  Thus, we have little patience for grandstanding U.S. Senate candidates who theatrically call for FBI investigations while they're holding campaign events with BORRIS friggin' MILES.

Finally, a political note: We wrote last week about how the Democrats' failure to do the right things with Carlos Uresti cost them his Senate seat.  It would be fitting for them to go through the same thing a second time.  What a STUPID, completely preventable, unforced error!!!

Bottom Line: There are two possibilities.  Bobby Francis didn't know.  Or he didn't care.  Neither one is good.