Wednesday, October 28, 2020

#TXLEGE: Abbott's Campaign Spending suggests GOP in good shape in Texas house

"and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
Matthew 16:3

  • It's fascinating that he's spending more on two central Texas districts currently held by Democrats than anywhere else.  Since he's Greg Abbott, he must obviously have polling data that suggests this is a good investment.  Think our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding policy had anything to do with this?!?
  • Steve Allison won in 2018 by close to ten points, it's hard to imagine him being in real trouble.
  • That being said, Abbott seems to have completely written off Lacey Hull and Morgan Meyer.
  • The only incumbent on this list who seems any realistic shot at losing is Jeff Leach, but even that one doesn't seem like a done deal.
    • Note: If Leach actually wins, it likely means R's gain seats in the chamber.
  • We'll see what happens with Matt Shaheen, but we'd be surprised if any of the seats below him on this list flip.
  • All of which is to suggest there will be between 80 and 86 R's in the Texas house next session.
    • Note: Absent our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding actions, that range is probably 78 to 84.
Remember: Abbott polls EVERYTHING.

Bottom Line: While there might be some tinkering around the edges, something roughly resembling the status quo seems likely to prevail.

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