#TXLEGE: Abbott's Campaign Spending suggests GOP in good shape in Texas house

"and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
Matthew 16:3

Interesting:

I've got @GregAbbott_TX's campaign spending $1.8M across 20 battleground state House races on the latest TEC filings (Sept. 25-Oct. 24). The candidate breakdown: pic.twitter.com/wzcaXn7w7t

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 28, 2020

Thoughts:

• It's fascinating that he's spending more on two central Texas districts currently held by Democrats than anywhere else.  Since he's Greg Abbott, he must obviously have polling data that suggests this is a good investment.  Think our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding policy had anything to do with this?!?

• Steve Allison won in 2018 by close to ten points, it's hard to imagine him being in real trouble.

• Ditto Craig Goldman...although we're less confident about that one based on his actions.

• That being said, Abbott seems to have completely written off Lacey Hull and Morgan Meyer.

• The only incumbent on this list who seems any realistic shot at losing is Jeff Leach, but even that one doesn't seem like a done deal.
• Note: If Leach actually wins, it likely means R's gain seats in the chamber.

• We'll see what happens with Matt Shaheen, but we'd be surprised if any of the seats below him on this list flip.

• All of which is to suggest there will be between 80 and 86 R's in the Texas house next session.
• Note: Absent our distinguished #atxcouncil's police defunding actions, that range is probably 78 to 84.

Remember: Abbott polls EVERYTHING.

Bottom Line: While there might be some tinkering around the edges, something roughly resembling the status quo seems likely to prevail.

#TXLEGE: In attacking Isaac, Opiela isn't exactly a disinterested party

"and all the ways that wickedness deceives those who are perishing. They perish because they refused to love the truth and so be saved."
2 Thessalonians 2:10

Former state rep Jason Isaac's wife, Carrie, is running for his old seat.  She's probably the least bad candidate with a realistic shot.   But we're not paying particularly close attention.

That being said, we DID find a recent report in the "Hays Free Press" noteworthy.  Apparently, in 2018, Jason Isaac used campaign funds to rent an apartment in South Austin.  Whether or not this is a good idea, it's completely legal.  But you'll never believe who the Hays Free Press chose to quote:

Attorney Eric Opiela, a Republican, seems to question the legality of Isaac’s expenditures, though Democratic attorney Buck Wood said he didn’t see a problem.

According to Opiela, who also served for a time as the state Republican Party’s executive director, the legality of the Isaacs’ use of campaign funds for his apartment home in southwest Austin comes down to intent. Did Isaac intend the apartment to support his official work as the representative, or was it for personal use?

Isaac announced on March 29, 2018, via Twitter, that he had taken a new job in Austin as president of a public policy organization, saying he was “eager to get to work expanding [the organization].” Eight days later, Jason Isaac used campaign funds to pay the application fee for his apartment home in Austin.

“Just because you list something as an officeholder expense on a finance report doesn’t make it one. The facts here certainly have the appearance of using campaign funds for personal use rather than the performance of one’s duties as a public official,” Opiela said.

“Residency questions are difficult to prove as a matter of state law,” explained Opeila. “It’s easy to claim to reside in a district without actually living there. It’s not so easy to have a candidate disqualified from the ballot, but it has happened in both primary and general elections.” The bigger problem with residency claims, according to Opeila, is how voters react to a candidate who claims to live in their district without actually living there.

Seriously...Eric Opeila?!?

LOL.

Besides Carrie Isaac, the other major candidate in this race is some dork named Bud Wymore.  You'll never believe who just *happens* to support Wymore.  From Wymore's campaign endorsements page:

Seriously, it took us longer to format that screenshot than it took us to figure out that Opeila was supporting a different candidate.

[Note: You can learn more about Eric Opeila's history here.]

One of two things is possible: The Hays Free-Press was too dumb or too lazy to figure out that Eric Opeila was supporting a different candidate.  Or the Hays Free-Press didn't care.  Neither is good.

Bottom Line: Is less than 30 seconds of research too much to ask?!?