California Gives New Life to Texas GOP's Oldest, Lamest, Argument

 

"But You, O Lord, are a shield for me,
My glory and the One who lifts up my head."
Psalm 3:3

Wow:

OAKLAND, Calif. — Uber and Lyft say that unless a state appeals court decides to intervene Thursday, they will shut down their passenger services across California for at least several months if not more than a year.

Apparently, in the time between when we first saw this story and when we sat down to write this blog post, Uber/Lyft got a reprieve from the courts in California.  So they stay.  For now.

But that doesn't change the point we had orignally intended to make.  Cuz uber and ridesharing was the one time the Texas Legislature actually did something useful.  And, apparently it mattered.

It's not a secret that this website used to bash California a lot.   We've gotten out of the habit the longer we've observed Texas government up close.  But it's not like the argument didn't have merit.

Crazy times.

Bottom Line: Whatever else you want to say about Texas under the GOP, they did address the Uber issue.

#TXLEGE: Abbott basically revives one of our old proposals (with a tweak)

"So he shepherded them according to the integrity of his heart,
And guided them by the skillfulness of his hands."
Psalm 78:72

Interesting:

The Big 3 proposal on police funding, per @GovAbbott: "Any city that defunds police departments will have its property tax revenue frozen at the current level. They will never be able to increase property tax revenue again if they defund police." #txlege

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) August 18, 2020

We're not necessarily for or against this proposal.  It has a lot of moving parts.  Charles Blain has good questions about practicality.  This is definitely one of those times where you're going to have to read the bill.

However, there's plenty of time for that.

In the meantime, we can't help thinking that someone once made a substantively similar proposal on a slightly different topic.

Who, pray tell, could that have been?!?

[T]here's another, much simpler, way to hold local governments' feet to the fire.

Later this session, the legislature will discuss restructuring the property tax system. The biggest policy change will likely be alterations in the "rollback" rate. "Rollback" rate refers to the point past which cities and counties have to seek voter approval to raise property taxes.

Imagine the following amendment on the property tax bill: "Any political subdivision that denies ICE detainers shall have their rollback rate set to zero."

In other words, all of their spending would be on the table...and it wouldn't require a drawn out court fight.

Swap in "defunding the police" for "ICE detainers," and Abbott is basically making our proposal from 2017.

Again, there are some rather significant practical challenges. So don't take this as an endorsement until we see specific legislative language. However, the instinct to hit intrangisent local governments on the property tax front is a commendable one.

And not just on this particular issue.

Bottom Line: Sincerest form of flattery, etc.

#TXLEGE: Larson's ALWAYS been about Disempowering Citizens

"and with all unrighteous deception among those who perish, because they did not receive the love of the truth, that they might be saved."
2 Thessalonians 2:10

Over the weekend, Lyle Larson published an op-ed calling for an end to the two party system. There's already been a lot of keyboard strokes spilled over the topic.  PushJunction says it well:

LYLE LARSON, ostensibly a Republican, over the weekend suggested Texas should move away from a two-party system. The maneuver earned him some flack from members of his party, including Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock).

While major parties may begin to fracture organically, Larson seeding the ground is an intriguing development since, correctly viewed, he’s a Straus puppet.

Moderates/liberal members of the GOP have been systematically undermining the Republican party base for years. The establishment flourishes when there are fewer distinctions and more parity.

In terms of analysis, we don't have a lot to add.

However, some history:

•  2013 -- Larson pushes term limits for the governor...but not the legislature.
  
  
• This would have had the structural effect of empowering committee chairs (which, at the time, were appointed by Joe Straus).
  

•  2017 -- Larson tries to move primaries to January.
  

•  2017 -- Larson tries to unconstitutionally usurp Governor's appointment power.
  
  
• Note: This proposal **might** have merit as a standalone measure.  Especially after Abbott's "reopening Texas committee" debacle.  But, as the rest of this blog post makes clear, Larson's measure wasn't a standalone measure.
  
  
• Note II: Whatever the merits of the proposal, it would require a constitutional amendment.
  

• Earlier in 2020 -- Larson tries to resurrect January primaries.

Bottom Line: None of this is surprising considering who's speaking.

#TXLEGE: Poncho's "post-Addiction" letter a DAMNING indictment of the Texas house

"[F]or he who greets him shares in his evil deeds."

2 John 1:11

Poncho Nevarez wrote a piece last week about his recovery from last year's cocaine-related unpleasantness.  It's an interesting read.  We wish him the best.  We don't harbor any personal animus (at least as long as he doesn't cash out from his lege service).

But what really stood out were the following sections:

Being an elected official, and, in particular, a member of the Texas House, requires some hubris. Whether you are obliging enough to admit, it requires an outsized sense of yourself and a lack of humility. Most of us come from being big-man-on-campus types. We mask that lack of humility in the sort of confidence people generally identify with success. The job, if you are doing it at a high level, almost demands it.

....

As I made my way through my first session, I became aware that a lot of what makes a high-functioning legislator is a talent for coloring outside the lines. I had that in spades. Guys like me tend to float through a lot of things because people perceive a potential in us, and they make allowances. Bodies like the legislature reward that, especially during the session.

....

You lose a lot of control over how things go in the legislative process. I cannot stress this enough. It becomes a tornado. Out of control. For a perfectionist thriving on control it can be maddening. My lack of patience hampered me. My ego pounded me. I became unable to manage defects in my character. My path towards full-blown alcoholism and addiction was pretty well set once I lost perspective....I just kept drinking more and then later using more and more cocaine to manage what became unbearable sadness at letting the process pile drive me and trying to shield myself from the real pain of living, and of living without people whom I had loved dearly. What else could it be, right? I mean who sets out to be an alcoholic and/or an addict? Nobody. Certainly not me.

....

As I marched through session after session, I became convinced the place was not good for me. Most of us would joke about it, but for me it was the truth. Yet the shot of adrenaline it gives you sometimes and the good on good, as I call it, are like the Sirens, calling you back.

Anyone that says the place won’t change them has not been there. It will. It becomes a question to what degree and how you deal with the change. By the time the 86th Legislature came I was roiling in depression and addictions.

Wow.

That's not normal.

Obviously, when news of Poncho's arrest broke, we wrote a very unflattering analysis.  We stand by it.  We've also long suspected that there was more to this story that isn't public.

But regardless of the details of Poncho's arrest/addiction, consider what we know that's undisputed. Consider, furthermore, what Poncho himself said in the extended blockquote above. What does that say about the culture of the Texas house?!?

Nothing good.

As we wrote in Januray:

[I]f Poncho Nevarez really is the addict he now claims to be, the Texas house accommodated Poncho Nevarez's alleged addiction as long as Poncho Nevarez was useful.

Now, from Poncho Nevarez's own pen (ok, fine, keyboard), we now have confirmation that that's exactly what happened.

Keep in mind, furthermore, that all of the above is the best case scenario.  Worse are certainly plausible. But, even in a best case, the Texas house enabled an addict because he was politically useful.

To which we will add: We don't know Poncho Nevarez.  At least not well.  We've met him a couple times and have testified in front of his committee, but we don't have any personal relationship.

But Poncho Nevarez looked terrible throughout the 2017 session.  He was fat.  He was bloated. His hair was almost always a mess. He wasn't shaving regularly.  It was obvious from 100 yards away that something was wrong with that guy. And where, pray tell, were his colleagues?!?

They were enabling him.  Because he was politically useful.  No matter how many crocodile tears they may shed today.

But good deal to Poncho Nevarez; as long as he doesn't monetize his legislative service, we're cool.

We can't say the same for his enablers/crocodile tear shedders.

Bottom Line: The toxic culture of the Texas house may have ground Poncho Nevarez down in unique ways.  That certainly seems the case.  But, details notwithstanding, what happened to Poncho was one blatant manifestation of a widespread phenomenon.  It's hardly the only one.

Musk threatens to move to state...where his business model is illegal?!?

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight:

Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependen on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 9, 2020

This is...kinda interesting.  We don't doubt Mr. Musk's sincerity in deriding state and local officials in California.  But is Elon Musk truly prepared to reward the legislators who have been keeping Tesla out of Texas for (at least) five years.

In Texas, we have something called "auto dealer franchise laws."   These protectionist measures disallow automobile sales without a middle man and a physical retail location.  This is a problem considering that Tesla's entire business model is based around direct to consumer sales.

For those who follow the Texas legislature, this was kinda a big deal in both 2015 and (especially) 2017.

Obviously, it's not illegal for Texas residents to own a Tesla.  There's even a few showrooms.  But all of the financial/paperwork aspects of any transaction must occur in another state.  Is Musk really prepared to overlook that?!?

Bottom Line: For as much fun a this narrative might be, there are a lot of unresolved questions before it materializes.

#TXLEGE: Larson Opportunistically Deploys Emmanuel's Old Playbook

"and with all unrighteous deception among those who perish, because they did not receive the love of the truth, that they might be saved."
2 Thessalonians 2:10

Classic:

Translation: Lyle Larson wants to make Texas' primary election earlier.

But this has nothing to do with presidential politics, and everything to do with protecting liberal incumbents down ballot.

In 2012, the primary in Texas was delayed two months due to meddling by the Obama administration.  It was also, not coincidentally, conservatives' best legislative cycle...pretty much ever.  Two additional months of campaigning allowed grassroots candidates to neutralize incumbents money advantage.

Ever since, the bidness-as-usual crowd has been pushing to make Texas' primary as early as possible.

Larson's been up to this for awhile.  In 2017, he authored HB 3180, which would have moved Texas' primary up to January.  This would have advantaged candidates with deep enough pockets to buy advertising during the Christmas season.  Incumbents, in other words.

That being said, we respect Larson's chutzpah:



Bottom Line: Using presidential politics as a pretext to protect legislative incumbents is a terrible idea.

#TXLEGE: Larry Taylor's Quiet Revolution; Version 2.0

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

[Note: You can read our original piece "Larry Taylor's quiet revolution" from last session here.]

He did it again!!!

Last session, the house passed a terrible 'school finance' bill, which the Senate altered in ways that would have produced some pretty cool long-term outcomes.

This session, to this point, it looked like the only difference was that the house wanted to spend six times as much.

Then something interesting happened in the Senate:

The Texas Senate approved a bill Monday to massively overhaul public school finance, but it did so while backing away from a proposal to use an increased sales tax to lower school district property taxes.

....

The bill no longer includes an expansion in the homestead exemption from school district taxes. It lowers property tax rates by 10 cents per $100 valuation, instead of 15 cents, saving the owner of a $250,000 home $250 instead of $375.

...

Instead, the bill creates a Tax Reduction and Excellence in Education Fund to fund school district tax relief. State Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, said a working group came up with a plan to get $3 billion from several sources, including the severance tax on oil and gas extraction and an online sales tax.

"This does not increase any taxes of any kind,” he said.

[Note: Emphasis added.]

There's a lot to like in this approach.

-------

10-cent Rate Compression:

This is real, meaningful, tangible tax relief.

It's not everything we want.  It's not everything we need.  But it's a start.

And it's an offer that should be accepted while its on the table.

We can do another 10 cents next session.

------

Severance Tax:

The Senate might have set out to solve school finance...but they may have just, unintentionally, solved the Rainy Day Fund.

In Texas, the "Rainy Day Fund" (formally called the economic stabilization fund), is funded through Oil and Gas severance taxes.  When the energy industry does well (*), it begets windfall levels of revenue for state government.  Windfall revenues inevitably creates temptation to spend.

It's why, during every session in recent memory, there's been serious pressure to raid the rainy day fund.

A politician who is tempted to spend...will eventually spend.

It's human nature.

By dedicating severance taxes to property tax buydowns, you change the entire incentive structure surrounding the rainy day fund.

Once again, this is an offer that should be accepted while it's on the table.

* -- Which, as long as the fracking boom is allowed to continue, means essentially forever moving forward.

-------

Bottom Line: A 10-cent rate compression alongside macroeconomic reforms to the severance tax is a pretty dadgum good place to start....

#TXLEGE: About Dan Patrick....

"Yes, if you cry out for discernment,
And lift up your voice for understanding,"
Proverbs 2:3

Some of the gripes about Dan Patrick have made it into the DMN:

AUSTIN — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick prides himself on being thought of as one of the most conservative leaders in Texas.

He's certainly earned the title. Patrick has championed school vouchers. He’s proposed cutting college financial aid. And during the last legislative session, he led the push for a bathroom bill.

But now some of his allies are criticizing him for being too moderate.

The lieutenant governor has abandoned some of his red-meat priorities, they allege, and supplanted them with middle-of-the-road proposals popular with more moderate and even liberal voters. While restricting abortion still tops Patrick's list, priorities like giving every teacher a pay bump and raising the smoking age have small-government types scratching their heads.

....

“The lieutenant governor’s list of priorities is not quite what we've come to expect from Dan Patrick,” Julie McCarty, president of the NE Tarrant Tea Party, told The Dallas Morning News. “And, yes, we are disappointed to see him moving to the middle of the road.”

The article goes on to discuss the Senate's priorities and why folks are upset.  Lauren McGaughy does a good job discussing them.  You really should read the whole thing.

Here's the thing: People have every right to be concerned, but it's still way too early to draw conclusions.

Historically, Dan Patrick has been pretty conservative...but he has always operated under the constraints imposed on him be reality.  Dan Patrick does not tilt at windmills.  Unfortunately, reality is imposing new constraints this session (ie. one fewer vote with which to work).

Dan Patrick is also a political horse trader, and the trades he makes are usually net positives for conservatives.

There are several example of this we can't discuss, but we will give one that's public: Last session, no one was more upset than this author about the Senate giving Abbott his UT Regents.  But, by giving Abbott what he wanted on Regents, he brought Abbott on board for everything else that session.  In hindsight, it was a good trade.

That's not to say we approve of everything we're seeing in the Senate.  They certainly seem determined to spend an astronomical amount of money.  But it is to say that we've been doing this long enough to withhold judgement until sine die.

If SB's 2, 9, 15, and 29 get signed by the Governor (without being watered down), and they keep the spending somewhat in check, it will be difficult to walk away from this session upset.

Bottom Line: We'll know in two months.

#TXLEGE: Interesting (potentially positive) school finance indicators

"Train up a child in the way he should go,'
And when he is old he will not depart from it.
Proverbs 22:6

It's difficult to know how much to read into them, but three noteworthy developments this week.

1. Dan Huberty quoted on Twitter:
   

   .@DanHuberty: "I didn't spend 12 months of my life on the school finance commission for you to come in here and say 'we just need more money.' We need to focus on results." 🙌 #txed #txlege

   — Cameron Petty (@CameronPetty) February 12, 2019

   
   To which we will add: We ran into Chairman Huberty a few hours after this tweet was posted. Since we didn't ask about putting the conversation on the record, we'll keep the details private. Suffice to say, it was consistent with the sentiment expressed above.
   
   Compared to last session, coming from Dan Huberty, this is huge.
   
   Too soon to tell whether this is flattery or genuine.  Even in a worst case scenario, however, for Dan Huberty to flatter our concerns illustrates a changed dynamic.  We'll know in June.
2. TPPF releases public education plan:

   TPPF Unveils Six Point Public Education Plan

   AUSTIN— Today, Senior Education Policy Advisor Kara Belew testified before members of the House Committee on Public Education on the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s public education plan, Right on Education: Texas’ Agenda to Restore Money to the Classroom and Eliminate the Main School Property Tax. “The key components of the TPPF public education agenda are ensuring school boards set student outcomes goals, provide merit pay for teachers, and focus on improving civics education,” said Belew. “TPPF looks forward to working with state leaders this session on innovative ideas that will improve student outcomes while lowering the property tax bills of families across Texas.”  The six components of the public education agenda are: Direct school boards, principals, and teachers to establish goals and monitor the progress of their schools’ and students’ reading and math outcomes Direct school boards to adopt merit pay programs for Texas’ most effective principals and teachers and support their curriculum success in the classroom Empower parents to ensure their children have a civics education focused on the founding principles of America Eliminate the maintenance and operations (M&O) school property tax in order to significantly reduce each family’s property tax burden Stop taxpayer-funded lobbying Give parents the opportunity to trigger school district efficiency audits to improve the use of taxpayer money

3. Senate to explore superintendent salaries:
   

   At a time when most of the clamor regarding education in the Texas Capitol is about “more money,” one lawmaker is filing legislation to encourage existing education dollars to be spent more wisely; specifically, when it comes to compensating our schools’ top administrators.
   
   Republican State Sen. Donna Campbell of New Braunfels recently filed a package of bills aimed at reining in out of control contracts for superintendents of Texas’ public schools. Senate Bills 721, 722, and 723 would cap the salaries and severance packages afforded to superintendents, as well as make most of the details surrounding their employment publicly and easily available.
   
   ....
   
   Senate Bill 721 would cap the salaries of superintendents at 150 percent of the governor’s salary. Currently the Governor of Texas makes $150,000 annually, which would subsequently cap superintendents’ salaries at no more than $225,000 per year.
   
   According to the Texas Education Agency’s Superintendents’ salary tool, 135 School Districts across the state were compensating their superintendent’s north of the proposed cap during the 2017-2018 school year. Many salaries soar past the proposal level, with several approaching nearly double that amount.
   
   Senate Bill 722 caps the dollar amount an administrator can be paid on their way out the door, and Senate Bill 723 would make information like salary, bonuses, benefits, and reimbursements available for taxpayers to see on the district’s website.

   This is a sea change from last session, when even the Senate (while doing other things we like) wouldn't touch this issue.
   
   Speaking in Capitol euphemisms, perhaps it's time to "begin the conversation."

Bottom Line: This issue remains in flux.  Potential outcomes could range anywhere from the very negative to the modestly positive.  But this week's developments strengthen the case for the latter.

#TXLEGE: Hinojosa telegraphs how SB 2 is likely to pass

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

Not surprising that the property tax bill is out of committee, but an interesting nugget in how it got there:

(All four Republicans on the panel voted for the bill; Democrat Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa was present but didn't vote.)

[Note: Emphasis added.]

In other words, Chuy didn't vote no.

We suspect that, when this bill comes up on the floor, one Democrat will be "excused for important business in the district."  Senate rules require AYE votes from three-fifths of Senators present and voting to consider a bill.   With 31 Senators, that means 19 votes.  But, with 30 Senators, it means 18.

Furthermore, we suspect that, whichever Senator happens to be absent that day will be lavishly bribed with taxpayer dollars pass a lot of "local bills."

Here's the thing: Democrats would, obviously, prefer this bill not pass.  But they know the Republicans have the votes to pass it in a special session (or at least they should).  Moreover, Democrats remember from 2017 that, when Greg Abbott calls a special session, he has a history of loading up the call with conservative items.  If they're smart, Democrats should want nothing to do with a special session.  Especially now that they no longer have Joe Straus to bail them out.  Thus, property tax reform gets done during the regular session.  If that requires a Senator falling on his sword, so be it.

Bottom Line:  We strongly suspect that, whenever SB 2 is debated on the floor, there will only be 30 Senators "present and voting" that day.

#TXLEGE: Patrick, Seliger, and Playing with Fire....

"Can a man take fire to his bosom,
And his clothes not be burned?"
Proverbs 6:27

Yesterday, we said "time will tell" as it relates to Seliger's committee assignments.  Initial reports are in.  They're not good:

Seliger said he looks forward to championing agricultural issues and that education legislation will remain a top priority. But the senator, who’s back in his Panhandle-area district for the long weekend, said many in the area are feeling “dismayed and disrespected.”

“It’s not what I desired,” Seliger said in a phone interview Friday afternoon. “There’s a negative reaction in this district, because [the finance committee] is a good position to try and do the things that are important in an area in West Texas that seems to have to fight for everything, from a budgetary point of view.”

“I know exactly what motivated the change. It was a couple of ‘no’ votes for the lieutenant governor’s priorities in 2017,” the longtime higher education chairman said. “It was a very clear warning to the Republicans that if you get off the reservation, you better be careful.”

Hoo boy.

Patrick's staff replies:

"If Senator Seliger believes serving as Chair of the Agriculture Committee — a critical committee for West Texas and all of rural Texas — is beneath him, he should let us know and the Lt. Governor will appoint someone else," said Sherry Sylvester, the Patrick advisor.

Yowza.

This is bad; if it's not resolved quickly, it will consume the session.

-------

Understand something: Dan Patrick needs Kel Seliger's vote (during the regular session).

It takes 19 votes to pass a bill in the Texas Senate (during the regular session).  There are 19 Republicans.  If Patrick loses Seliger, he has to find a Democrat.

Depending on the issue, it might not be impossible to find some Democrats, but it's a lot easier to pass bills with Seliger on board.

-------

There's nothing wrong with removing Seliger from higher ed.  While we had no complaints about his chairmanship last session (he passed the two bills we wanted passed), there's a fairly obvious case for replacing him.  Furthermore, now that his wife is head of the Texas Exes, one could argue it's a conflict of interest.

But tossing Seliger from Finance was STUPID.

Finance is a gigantic committee.  One member's vote doesn't change anything (esp. now that property taxes have been moved to a separate committee).  Keeping the Finance appointment as a courtesy pick to a senior member Senator have been a no-brainer.

Instead, Dan Patrick just gratuitously insulted that senior Senator at a time when the Senator in question has a lot of leverage.

-------

The worst part is that there was an obvious path to placate Seliger; it should have at least been tried.

Kel Seliger is a legislator who, every session, has about a zillion priorities.  Obviously, many conflict with conservative priorities.  But a decent number of them don't.

It doesn't take a genius to envisage a deal where Seliger gets all of his lower profile stuff in exchange for supporting Patrick's high profile stuff.

As cooler heads prevail, here's hoping that still happens.  But the cost for Seliger's cooperation just went up.  And it will continue to rise as long as this conflict festers.

-------

Let's not overlook the potential nightmare of Seliger on Nominations.

Evan Smith hasn't:

#txlege smarty points out Senate Nominations could get interesting post-@kseliger dis. If Dems — @CarolforTexas @BorrisLMiles @KirkPWatson — hold together, he is swing vote #kelfreezesover

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) January 19, 2019

Kel freezes over indeed.

-------

For all that, remember one other thing: Kel Seliger also needs Dan Patrick.  Not as bad as the other way.  But bad enough.

For as much leverage as Seliger possesses during the regular session, it evaporates in a special.  The Texas Senate operates under completely different rules during a special.  This is something Seliger already knows, but it's something about which he should be reminded.

If Kel Seliger is the only reason for a special session, he should get nothing.

-------

Bottom Line: Dan Patrick and Kel Seliger can both accomplish more by working together than by feuding.  That's still true.  Hopefully, cooler heads prevail.

#TXLEGE: Initial Thoughts on Senate Committee Assignments

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Senate Committee assignments are out:

86th #TXLEGE Senate Committees by Cahnman on Scribd

Thoughts:

• Kolkhorst OUT at admin -- Given her disgraceful neglect (at best) of the Texas Senate's very real problem with sexual misbehavior, this is a welcome development.

• Schwertner out, Kolkhorst in, at HHS -- Given what we just said, to see Lois Kolkhorst take over for Charles Schwertner is...to put it mildly...ironic.
  
  Beyond that aspect, however, this is a strange assignment.  Kolkhorst's background is in Oil and Gas, not health care.  Why her?!?  Why here?!?
  
  It's not like there's a shortage of Doctors in the Texas Senate.

• That being said, good precedent on Schwertner -- We've been arguing for over a year that loss of committee chairs was the most important sanction we could impose on legislators who engage in funny business.  However bizarre that route it took to get to this place might have been, that precedent is now established.
   
• Seliger to chair new Ag. committee -- Tough to know what to make of this one.  On the one hand, it's easy to view it as a demotion.  On the other hand, it's also easy to see how this is a good fit with Seliger's district.
  
  Only time will tell.
  
  If it is a demotion, however, beware the wrath of Seliger down the line.

• Solid Conservatives on Education

• Creighton in at Higher Ed. -- Ummmmmm?!?
  
  We've never known Brandon Creighton to have any particular interest in Higher ed. issues.  So this is...odd.  On the one hand, Creighton has historically tended to vote solidly.  On the other hand, he's not somebody who likes to upset the apple cart.
  
  Tough to know how that breaks on Higher Ed. issues.
  
  Longhorn.

• Buckingham in at Nominations -- This could be interesting.
  
  Last session, Dawn Buckingham was the only Senator who even showed a pulse during the UT regent confirmation process.  We have no idea if they will be, but Regent confirmations should be an even bigger issue this session.  None of them are great, but Buckingham's record on this subject is less bad that most of the others.
  
  That being said, if Buckingham puts down her foot on regent confirmations, Watson, Seliger, and Alvarado will go BALLISTIC.  We have no idea how that plays out.  But it would be really entertaining to watch.  If nothing else, it would be a healthy debate to have in public.
  
  We've also signed onto the coalition letter related to the Sec'y of State confirmation.

• Plum assignments for Flores

• Business as usual for Borris Miles -- Obviously, he doesn't have a chairmanship to lose but Economic Development and HHS are...not bad.

Bottom Line: No obvious roadblocks on any major issues.  Couple interesting personnel moves.  We shall see.

#TXLEGE: An all sorts of interesting panel about property taxes

"But the former governors who were before me laid burdens on the people, and took from them bread and wine, besides forty shekels of silver. Yes, even their servants bore rule over the people, but I did not do so, because of the fear of God."
Nehemiah 5:15

"If we don't fix it this session, we're in big trouble."

So said Drew Springer at this afternoon's TPPF policy orientation panel on property taxes.

The panel featured a number of interesting nuggets; among them:

• Senator Paul Bettencourt on Speaker Bonnen's willingness to engage the issue in good faith: "Quite a departure from the last speaker."

• Bettencourt -- As property values go up, tax rates have to go down.

• Bettencourt -- "The state has to stop Robin Hood."

• Bettencourt plugged uniform election dates.

• Tarrant County Judge Glenn Whitley gave a lot of the usual talking points about "state mandated services" such as a court system and jails...but, if courts and jails were the only thing on which counties were spending their money, there wouldn't be a problem.

• To his credit, Whitley also mentioned the ENORMOUS sums Texas gives away as tax exemptions; we've previously discussed how this could be an area of widespread cross-partisan consensus.

• Springer calls for using new revenue from various excise type taxes to buy down property taxes.

• Fun local fact: Apparently, Travis county has had the slowest county tax growth of any major urban county in the state!!!

• And the kicker: DREW SPRINGER.  ENDORSES.  AUTOMATIC ROLLBACK ELECTIONS.

That last one is the hugest of them all.  Last session, Drew Springer was one of the primary obstacles to property tax reform.  Honestly, it's noteworthy that Drew Springer is constructively engaging on this issue in the first place.

We know a few people on Facebook were mad about an obscure thing that happened in yesterday's rules debate, but today we found ourselves wondering who this guy was and what he had done with the Drew Springer from last session.

But we'll take it.

Bottom Line: It's too soon to tell the form in which it will take shape, but there will be tangible progress on this issue this session....

#TXLEGE: Straus' departure is what makes 'solving' school finance possible

"For all the nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury."
Revelation 18:3

As Joe Straus prepares to slink off into the dust bin of history, it's worth examining one claim he's often made during his "farewell" tour:

Now, with the next legislative session approaching, there is a growing sense of urgency to address the issues that we've been talking about for many years, such as school finance, and much less attention on issues that do little more than needlessly divide voters.

Horse manure.

Over the past two sessions, Joe Straus has been the primary obstacle on school finance.  Make no mistake: Joe Straus wanted to spend a lot of money.  Joe Straus never wanted to "reform" anything.

Last session, the house's 'school finance reform' proposal was HB 21.  While the house sold HB 21 as a school finance bill, in reality HB 21 was a spending bill.  HB 21 did nothing to provide relief to taxpayers or reduce waste in the current system.  HB 21 merely attempted to pour a bunch more money into the status quo.

[Note: You can read what we said about HB 21 during the regular session here and from the special session here.]

Pouring more money into the status quo is a non-starter.

Bottom Line: A more efficient system of funding public education is, potentially, a big win for taxpayers and students.  For the state pick up a larger share of the total is likewise, potentially, part of that more efficient system.  For that potential to materialize, however, taxpayers and students need structural reforms.  Due to the nature of the his political coalition, Joe Straus was never willing to consider structural reform.

#TXLEGE: Bonnen would be less bad, but wouldn't be great

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Interesting:

State Rep. John Zerwas, a Richmond Republican, has withdrawn from the race for speaker of the Texas House, he confirmed to The Texas Tribune on Sunday evening.

“I am grateful for the opportunities I have had to engage with the members of the House. The honest conversations are critical to the relationships I have, and I am honored to work with such principled leaders,” he said in a statement to the Tribune. “While I believe that I could lead the House through a successful 2019 session, it has come time for me to end my bid for Speaker and wholly focus on writing the budget for the 2020-2021 biennium.”

His departure comes amid an effort among roughly 40 GOP House members to draft state Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, into the race. Bonnen did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Texas Tribune.

On Sunday night, that group of 40 members was scheduled to gather in Austin to discuss recruiting him for the job. Bonnen previously had told The Texas Tribune in May that he was not interested in running for the top slot in the lower chamber. The Tribune was told Sunday night that Bonnen was not at the meeting.

Here's the thing: Dennis Bonnen is a man of many, many, flaws.  But he would still represent a tangible upgrade over Joe Straus.  Amazing as it may sound, Dennis Bonnen had a higher Empower Texans score last session than any of the declared speaker candidates.  At a minimum, you probably get some kind of property tax reform out of a Bonnen-led house.

Obviously, Dennis Bonnen was the public face of killing property tax reform last session.  But, according to multiple Capitol sources, Bonnen wasn't happy about it.  Bonnen was basically placed in an impossible situation by Joe Straus, but he did his best to muddle through.  We've also heard rumors, though they are unconfirmed, that Bonnen was one of the major players in getting Joe Straus to finally step aside.

Bottom Line:  We can probably do better, but we can certainly do worse.

#TXLEGE: An EXTREMELY Fishy Accusation Against Schwertner

"Let the righteous strike me;
It shall be a kindness.
And let him rebuke me;
It shall be as excellent oil;
Let my head not refuse it.

For still my prayer is against the deeds of the wicked."
Psalm 141:5

[Note: If anyone reading this has a better idea what's really happening, e-mail us at cahnman@hotmail.com; confidentiality guaranteed.]

Sssssssssssssssssay what?!?

The University of Texas is investigating an allegation that state Sen. Charles Schwertner sent a sexually explicit image and text message to a graduate student he met at an on-campus event this summer, three senior UT officials with knowledge of the investigation told the American-Statesman.

If the allegation is deemed true, the university would consider banning Schwertner from campus, two of the officials said. The third official said the university is also considering hiring outside legal counsel to investigate further.

Through a spokesman, Schwertner on Tuesday said he “categorically denies any knowledge of the accusations” and plans to cooperate with UT’s investigation.

The student met Schwertner, a Georgetown Republican and a UT alumnus, at an on-campus event to which Schwertner was invited and told him she was interested in working at the Legislature, according to two of the officials. After the event, they exchanged messages on the networking site LinkedIn before moving to text messaging, the two officials said.

During an otherwise professional exchange on networking and career advice, Schwertner abruptly wrote, “I just really want to f—- you,” and sent her an image that appeared to be a picture of his genitals that was taken in the shower, according to a UT official who has seen the exchange and the photo. The image does not include his face, the official said. The Statesman has not seen the photo.

The student told Schwertner that she thought he had acted inappropriately, the officials said, and Schwertner did not respond. The student then reported Schwertner’s behavior to the school, prompting the investigation, they said.

All UT officials interviewed by the Statesman declined to reveal the identity of the student out of respect for her privacy and to honor the promise of confidentiality that the university made to her when she reported the incident. Student privacy laws also prohibit the university from disclosing the student’s name.

The officials, who declined to be identified because they are not authorized to speak on the matter, said that the investigation into Schwertner has not found any potentially criminal misconduct.

Schwertner campaign spokesman Tom Holloway said Tuesday in a statement, “The Senator categorically denies any knowledge of the accusations leveled against him and only became aware of this allegation when contacted by the media late this afternoon. The Senator is eager to cooperate with the University of Texas and hopes to make clear he played no part in the behavior described.”

In a statement, UT spokesman Gary Susswein said the university does not discuss ongoing investigations “in order to protect the integrity of the investigative process.”

[Note: Emphasis added.]

Seriously...Charles Schwertner?!?

Wow.

Wasn't expecting that one.

Now, look, the Texas Legislature has a VERY serious problem with sketchy sexual behavior among its members.  Among its members, we wouldn't put this sort of behavior past ANY of them (including the ones we like).  But...Charles Schwertner?!?

We suppose it's possible.

But this is the first time we've ever heard Charles Schwertner's name associated with this sort of behavior.

Very few people have been more outspoken than this author about the Texas legislature's need to clean up this behavior (see here, and here, and here, and here, and here, and here).  During that time, we've heard unflattering reports about any number of legislators.  We've seen sketchy behavior from several legislators.  But this is the first time Charles Schwertner's name has come up.

We've been working sources since last night.  So far, it's unanimous.  This seems to be the first time anyone, anywhere, has heard any sort of allegation along these lines regarding Schwertner.

Then there's this:

Got lots of questions about this: No, I had not gotten any tips about Charles Schwertner. There are a lot of men in the #txlege I was told to look into, but he wasn't one of them.https://t.co/NT7plKVMCF

— Olivia Messer 💀 (@OliviaMesser) September 26, 2018

To be clear, that's not in any way meant to be a comment on the Statesman's story. Just that I was not independently aware of any allegations.

— Olivia Messer 💀 (@OliviaMesser) September 26, 2018

This is not to say it's impossible.  Certainly, none of us participated in the alleged conversation.  But it is to say that, as far as we can tell, this is the first time Charles Schwertner's name has ever come up in association with this sort of behavior.

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Which begs a natural follow up question.  Where, pray tell, did this accusation emerge?!?  Glad you asked:

[T]hree senior UT officials

So, the accusation isn't coming from the afflicted party.  It's coming from "three senior UT officials" not speaking on the record.  No doubt laundered through several layers of the UT bureaucracy.

Why does this matter?!?

Because UT has a history with Schwertner.  And UT also has a history of fighting dirty when their financial interests are threatened.  Very dirty.

More than any other Senator, Charles Schwertner has taken the lead against UT's incessant tuition hikes.  Schwertner has also voted against Regent nominees.  Thus, he's a threat.  If you don't think UT is willing to fight this dirty to protect its financial interests, you don't know UT.

Then there's the alleged matter of privacy.  It would not be difficult to redact the accuser's personally identifiable information.  Even if they didn't want to make it public, they could have at least show a copy of the picture to the Statesman.  That they didn't, while hiding behind the cloak of anonymity, is suspicious.

Again, that's not to say it's impossible.  UT could be telling the truth.  But their record of truthfulness, especially where money is concerned leaves a lot to be desired.

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That being said, for UT's sake, they better have the goods.

From the Lt. Governor:

PR 09 26 2018 Lt. Gov. Patrick Statement on Allegations Against Sen. Sch... by Cahnman on Scribd

It doesn't take a genius to read between those lines.  If UT doesn't have the goods, they just picked a gigantic fight with the Senate and the Lt. Governor.  That suggests UT knows what they're doing.  But the UT politburo's record also suggests they're arrogant enough to try.

Only time will tell.

Last session, the Senate caved on Regents and the higher ed budget.  Efforts on tuition fizzled in the house.  That can change.

But here's where they're really playing with fire: UT's record on Title IX leaves a lot to be desired.  Now they're making an, at best, thinly sourced allegation against a Senator.  Woe unto them if they are wrong.

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Even more than Dan Patrick, however, the person to watch is Greg Abbott.  It's not a secret that, both as Governor and as Attorney General, Greg Abbott has run a lot of interference for UT.  Does that continue?!?

There are already signs Abbott is getting sick of UT's nonsense.  Late last year, Abbott's staff started leaking about his displeasure with the University.  And that was after Abbott forced out the Chairman of the Board after he started working to undermine Abbott's legislative agenda.

And now "three senior UT officials" are leaking to the Statesman about this sensitive of a topic.

Does anybody think they gave the Governor's office a head's up?!?

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Since this issue re-emerged last year, our biggest fear has been that it would become weaponized for political purposes.  We don't know that that's what happened in this instance.  But it's happened before.

On the other hand, the Senate's reaction to previous allegations has sucked.

If it takes a weak accusation against a Republican for the Senate to get its act together, that might be a silver lining.

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Finally: This is exactly why we offered our platform amendment at the convention.  We specifically called on the Legislature to establish a "credible system of due process."  At the time, it was primarily about the known cases.  But imagine if such a system was in place now.

Unfortunately, RPT convention delegates, YOU'RE the ones who voted it down.

The Schwertner situation is a textbook example of why the adopted platform language is dangerous.

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Bottom Line: It's a mess.  We'll have to see how it unfolds.  But there's A LOT of history between these two parties.

#TXLEGE: Conservative Budget Coalition announces Comprehensive List of Fiscal Priorities!!!

"Be diligent to know the state of your flocks,
And attend to your herds;"
Proverbs 27:23

The Conservative Budget coalition is one of the most effective actions Texas conservatives have taken in recent years.  It began in 2014, following the budget debacle of the 83rd legislature.  It sets a top line number for budget growth that would hold per capita state spending constant.  It's the reason why both the 84th and 85th legislatures passed budgets that, while far (especially in the 85th) from perfect, met a minimum threshold of acceptability.

The coalition held a press conference this morning to announce its priorities.  The most important takeaway is that they're asking for more.  In addition to a maximum spending target, they're asking for several other fantastic fiscal reforms.

$234.1 Billion.  That's the top line number for a two-year state budget that will hold state spending constant per Texan.  This still allows for inflation and population growth.  This translates to an 8% budget cycle over budget cycle spending increase.

But the coalition wants to do more.  Instead of acquiescing to an 8% state spending increase, the coalition wants to limit the state to 4%.  The difference will then be directed to a Tax Relief Fund that will be used to "buy down" school district taxes.  This will provide immediate relief to taxpayer and, if followed over time, eventually eliminate the largest component of Texans property tax bill.  This is the TPPF plan we've discussed.

For us, the best part of today's press conference was that it broke down why the TPPF plan and the Governor's plan complement each other.  The TPPF plan is designed to provide immediate relief on the largest part (school districts) of the tax bill.  The Governor's plan is designed to make sure cities, counties, and special purpose districts don't spend the resulting savings.  The reason why you have to treat school districts differently from cities, counties, and special purpose districts is because of Robin Hood (which the TPPF plan also begins to address).

The plan finally calls for various spending limits, eliminating the margins tax, and various transparency measures.  All of these things are good ideas.  We'd support any!

Bottom Line: If the next legislature wants to know how to make the grassroots happy, today's press conference is a good place to start.

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2018 09 PP the 2020 21 Conservative Texas Budget CFP Ginn Peacock Heflin by Cahnman on Scribd

#TXLEGE: Grassroots Coalition calls on Sunset Commission to CUT Government

"Much food is in the fallow ground of the poor,
And for lack of justice there is waste."
Proverbs 13:23

The Texas Sunset Commission is meeting this week; this morning, a coalition of grassroots organizations released a letter calling on the commission to actually reduce the size and scope of government:

Final Coalition Letter Sunset Commission 8.29.18 by Cahnman on Scribd

It'll be interesting to see what happens.  Given the membership of the commission, a wide range of outcomes is plausible.  Obviously, the house members are terrible.  But the Senators on the commission are reasonably decent.

That being said, if the house members are smart, this would be a smart time to offer the grassroots an olive branch.  A number of these agencies and boards are completely pointless, but are nevertheless obscure enough to have minimal impact.  Thus, this is an opportunity to establish limited government street cred without it impacting their other ambitions.

Also, for those members of the commission who care about such things, there is money in these agencies that could be spent on education.

Finally, from a local perspective, we'd love to take any property these agencies and use it for residential construction.  Housing shortage and whatnot.  Thus, we're glad that there are two Austin-based commission members.

Bottom Line:  This year's sunset process will help establish the tone for next session.  A wide range of outcomes is possible.  It'll be interesting to see what happens.

#TXLEGE: Abbott is correct about teacher pay; real question is whether he'll fight for it effectively....

"He who has a slack hand becomes poor,
But the hand of the diligent makes rich."
Proverbs 10:4

Yesterday, Governor Abbott held a campaign photo op "education roundtable discussion," from which we learned the following:

Could Texas teachers soon be on their way to a six-figure salary?

Governor Greg Abbott is on a round table tour around the state, talking to educators about the idea of putting the best teachers on the path to earning more than $100,000 a year.

The idea is to keep talented teachers in the classroom by giving them more money.

Abbott says the plan would allow districts flexibility to determine who gets the biggest paychecks. He also adds the money will not come from an increase in property taxes.

"We want to structure a compensation plan that will put the very best educators on a pathway to earning a six-figure salary," Abbott said.

It will be up to the legislature to determine how to fund the raises.

One of Governor Abbott's more commendable traits is that he recognizes the difference between bureaucrats and teachers.  Last year, during the special session, Governor Abbott proposed funding teacher raises by taking the money directly out of the bureaucracy.  It was a worthwhile proposal, but it's fate is instructive.

During the special session, Abbott's proposal quickly passed the Senate, but went nowhere in the house.  That, in and of itself, isn't surprising.  But the dynamic behind that failure revealed quite a bit.

During the 85th legislature, any attempt to a) increase teacher pay, b) structurally reform education, or c) reduce or reform property taxes was met with an incorrigible, intransigent demand: MOAR MONEY FOR THE EDUCATION STATUS QUO!!!

To be sure, the house didn't couch it that way.  The house, led by Dan "hide the interns" Huberty, called it "school finance reform."  But Huberty's bill did nothing but pour additional state funds into the status quo.

And that's the problem.

Any attempt to fix any of the three issues listed above will be held hostage by the house to extort more money for the socialized education bureaucracy.  Period.  End of story.

The only way you might untie that knot would be for the Governor to deploy an inside/outside strategy.  The inside aspect would involve glad handling at the Capitol.  The outside aspect would involve showing up in members' districts.

Unfortunately,  Abbott's record on both sides of that equation sucks.  On his inside game, irritation with the aloofness of Abbott's office is one of the most common complaints at the Capitol across the political spectrum.  On his outside game, the one time Abbott tried to take out members, he was so clumsy about it that it backfired BADLY.

And that's why we think the teacher pay proposal he made yesterday, while worthwhile on the merits, faces a very challenging path forward.

Bottom Line:  Governor Abbott's teacher pay proposal is a good idea.  But getting it to his desk would require significant legislative skill.  To this point, Governor Abbott has yet to demonstrate that skill.