#TXLEGE: Questions we'd ask Goldman and Israel if we were Evan Smith

"Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits, whether they are of God; because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1

Trib's holding an event tomorrow morning about the Texas house:

It’s the question everyone’s asking across the state — and at the Capitol. With the speakership up for grabs, big issues looming, and redistricting around the bend, Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith talks strategy and tactics with state Rep. Celia Israel of Austin, who’s leading the Democratic party’s efforts to regain the majority, and state Rep. Craig Goldman of Fort Worth, one of the Republicans tasked with retaining it.

This is an event we'd normally attend.  But the weather looks like it's going to suck.  And we want to take it easy on our knee.

But there are any number of questions that should be asked.

For Celia Israel:

• Why should anyone believe the Democrats are even remotely capable of picking up nine seats when y'all were too stupid to figure out that Gary Gates is a slumlord?!?

• Following y'all's debacle in Ft. Bend county, have you figured out that nobody cares about redistricting?!?

• It has now been two weeks since the GOP put Jim Frickin' Murphy in charge of cleaning up the Teacher Retirement System scandals.  Why have Democrats failed to exploit this debacle for political purposes?!?  Does this failure reflect poorly on your basic political competence?!?

For Craig Goldman:

• Why should anybody believe a word the Texas GOP says at this point?!?

For Both:

• Does it actually matter which party controls the Texas house next session?!?  Besides the details of whose donors get paid off more.  And how, specifically, you'll lie to voters.

• It's not exactly a secret that the Texas house is governed by a 'bi-partisan' blob of 120 or so members.
• Hint: Not really.

• What does the utter, total, and complete failure of ANY member of the Texas house (in either party) to condemn putting Jim frickin' Murphy in charge of cleaning up the Teacher Retirement System scandals say about the culture of the institution.?!?

• Should Poncho Nevarez receive a taxpayer funded pension for the rest of his life?!?

Bottom Line:  We'd LOVE to hear Craig Goldman and Celia Israel answer all of these.

#TXLEGE: Worst Possible Republican Candidate > Entire Democrat Presidential Field

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Hahahahahahahahahahaha:

Last night marked the completion of the first elections of 2020 as the spotlight centered on three runoff elections for Texas House seats. The marquee race was in Fort Bend County, which saw Republican Gary Gates square off against Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a runoff that received national attention and all but overshadowed even the most contentious primary races up until last night.

In what can only be described as a strong victory for the Texas GOP, Republican candidate Gary Gates won the special election runoff with 58 percent of the vote, defeating his opponent with a 16-point margin of victory.

Fort Bend County has been a hotbed of political activity since Rep. John Zerwas (R-Richmond) retired in September. Texas Democrats rallied in hopes this race would begin their steady climb to regain control of the Texas House.

State and national Democrats largely threw their support behind one candidate, Eliz Markowitz. Former congressman and one-time presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke spent countless hours campaigning for Markowitz in an attempt to galvanize his supporters to help win the seat for Texas Democrats.

O’Rourke threw rallies, block walked, fundraised, and was present with Markowitz on the ground all throughout election day.

Political heavyweights like Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Wendy Davis all supported Markowitz either by endorsing her candidacy or even, in Bloomberg’s case, coming to Texas to knock on doors for the candidate.

National and state special interest groups, including the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Texas-based progressive women’s group Annie’s List, took advantage of the unorthodox election date and spent concentrated time, money, and attention on House District 28.

Altogether, approximately $1 million was spent on this state house race by Democrats and left-leaning allies.

 This is bad if you're a Democrat.

It's not just that the Democrats lost.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout after dropping seven figures.

It's that the Democrats lost, in a blowout, after dropping seven figures...to Gary frickin' Gates.

That would be the same Gary Gates who, prior to last night, was a seven time loser.

Yet Democrats failed.

It's pretty funny.

Gary frickin' Gates.

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Three months ago, we outlined the degree to which Gary Gates was a terrible candidate.  There's an opposition research file an inch thick floating around on that guy.  For crying out loud, dude's a slumlord who made his money ripping off taxpayers.

But did the Democrats bring any of that up?!?  Not really.  The one time they tried to wade into any of it, they did it so poorly that it backfired.

Instead, Democrats gave us: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Bobby Francis O'Rourke...and redistricting.

And nobody cared.

What's even funnier is that Democrats didn't even heed the lessons of their own previous victories.  Typically, when Democrats are successful in swing areas, it's because they run vague campaigns about public education and traffic.  But they didn't do that this time.

Instead, they rolled out the list of national politicians listed above.  And they made redistricting the single substantive issue of their campaign.  And they lost.

To Gary frickin' Gates.

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Miscellaneous takeaways:

• Voters don't care about redistricting -- This was the one substantive issue on which Democrats ran.  The results speak for themselves.  Turns out whining about how you can't rig the system to benefit yourself (which you're totally mad at the other guys for doing that) isn't a winning message.  Go figure.

• The Democrat presidential field sucks -- Five Democrat presidential candidates literally lost to Gary frickin' Gates.

• Julian Castro and Bobby Francis O'Rourke will never be elected statewide.
• Note: Only possible exception is a national environment that's 5 to 7 points worse for the GOP than 2018.

Gary frickin' Gates.

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Bottom Line: Pretty funny.

#TXLEGE: National Democrats will probably blow their chance in HD-28 Special Election

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Is this a joke?!?

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is backing Eliz Markowitz in the special election runoff for state House District 28, her highest-profile endorsement yet in the battleground race.

Markowitz faces Republican businessman Gary Gates in the Jan. 28 race to replace former Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond. Democrats are working to flip the suburban Houston seat as they look to capture the House majority in November.

....

Biden, who is leading Texas presidential primary polls, is the latest White House contender to get involved in the runoff after Michael Bloomberg visited the district late last month to stump with Markowitz.

Soo, at a time when everyone is sick of national politics, the Democrats plan to win this seat is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Cuz' that strategy is doomed to failure.

Two months ago, we thought they had a legit shot in this race.  The GOP nominated a terrible candidate with a ton of baggage.  That's still the case.

Yet, two months later, all we're hearing about is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Even when they try to make an issue out of the afore mentioned baggage, this is the headline they get:

Newsflash: Nobody cares about what comes after the phrase "National Democrats target."  Whatever it is, it just sounds like a bogus political attack.  You just lost the messaging war by framing this as a political story.

Bottom Line: Had the past two months gone differently, it might have been possible.  Now, however, it's hard to see how this race deviates from long term historical averages.  Advantage, incumbent party.

#TXLEGE: In newly competitive district, genius Texas Republicans nominate Worst Possible Candidate

"When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice;
But when a wicked man rules, the people groan."
Proverbs 29:2

Oh no:

A Democrat and a Republican are advancing to a runoff in a nationally targeted special election for a previously Republican-held Texas House seat.

With all vote centers reporting Tuesday night, the sole Democratic candidate, Eliz Markowitz, finished first with 39% of the vote, according to unofficial returns. Republican Gary Gates was the runner-up at 28%.

More:

Gates, who has run for a myriad of elected positions in previous elections, including railroad commissioner in 2016 and state senate in 2014, but failed to come out on top each time, was largely self-funded. He loaned himself a whopping $445,000 in the last reporting period alone.

Markowitz, the lone Democrat, garnered support from liberal special interest groups, and fellow Texas Democrats like former State Senator Wendy Davis, former presidential candidate and congressman Beto O’Rourke, and an array of sitting Texas House members.

She significantly outraised her Republican competition.

We didn't realize Gates was even running until this morning.  There's pretty much no candidate more poorly suited to a competitive environment.  Hoo boy.

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Seven Time Loser:

From last time Gates ran for office:

His record of losses is complicated. Gates first sought a seat in the Texas House. He lost. He tried again. And he lost again. He ran for the Texas Senate. And lost. Then he tried again for the Texas Senate. And lost. Along the way, he twice ran for a local school board seat. And he lost both times.

It’s tempting to label such a record as “sad.” But “pathetic” seems more appropriate.

Gates went on to lose the election in question.

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Slumlord:

Ought oh:

HOUSTON — In his run for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, Gary Gates has campaigned heavily on his business credentials, noting that he built a sprawling real estate company from scratch with his own sweat and dollars.

Gates, who has run for public office several times but never held it, suggests that his experience shaping and leading companies that now employ 350 people and own roughly 5,500 apartment units qualifies him to join the three-member commission that oversees the state's oil and gas production, natural gas utilities and mining operations.

....

Gates said that most of the apartment complexes he buys are considered “Class C,” typically older units that need rehabilitation and are rented out relatively cheaply.

He said he bought the Deerfield Apartments out of bankruptcy in 1987, just as his business was getting off the ground. The city of Houston later lent him $1.12 million to rehabilitate the property.

“It was in a real difficult area,” he said. “That’s kind of my specialty — buying very difficult properties.”

And that complex did present challenges.

In 2007, Houston sought to shut down the Deerfield Apartments for a year. In a lawsuit, the city alleged that his companies — APTDF and Gatesco — tolerated the rampant crime on the property. The lawsuit documented 55 offenses on the property over a two-year period, ranging from prostitution and drug offenses to sexual assault and capital murder.

“Defendants have made no reasonable attempt to abate the criminal activity at Deerfield Apartments, and should be enjoined from maintaining a common nuisance,” Houston argued.

Houston’s lawsuit followed complaints from fearful residents. At a city council meeting in August 2006, for instance, Councilman M.J. Khan discussed an email from a constituent who reported being jolted awake one morning by six rounds of automatic gunfire — and hearing more shots while police dispatchers told them they had no one to send out.

The resident said such violence had persisted for years in the neighborhood and wanted Gates to hire a security guard to patrol the area and to replace a fence that had been torn down, according to council meeting minutes.

Earlier that year, Gates’ companies faced a similar lawsuit after 9-year-old Jose Luis Briones was shot in the back and severely injured during a 2004 robbery at the Deerfield complex. Briones’ family levied similar neglect allegations and ultimately received a $3,500 settlement from Gates' company, according to court documents.

It gets better:

In the midst of his seventh run for public office – this time for the Texas Railroad Commission – new documents are coming to light showing that Houston real estate investor Gary Gates defaulted on a loan of over $1 million from Bayou City taxpayers.

On April 29, 1998, the City Council of Houston passed Ordinance No. 98-330 entering into a loan agreement with Gates’ company, APTDF, Ltd.

The loan was for $1,120,000 for rehabilitation costs in connection with Gates’ Deerfield Apartments located at 10001 Club Creek Drive. The interest rate for the taxpayer-backed loan was set seven percent annually. Gates personally guaranteed the loan.

The loan matured on November 28, 2000, but Gates defaulted.

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Full employment for (the worst) campaign consultants:

Again, from last campaign:

Campaign consultants keep taking Gary Gates to the cleaners as he desperately seeks one office after another. His reckless spending seeking Tuesday’s Texas Railroad Commission race demonstrates that even a big pile of money cannot make a bad candidate more attractive to voters.

Gates has no professional, educational or life experiences that would qualify him for a seat on the commission that has regulatory jurisdiction over the state’s oil and gas industry. As we have previously written, Gates merely wants to hold office but has been rejected in every single effort.

The Texas Tribune reports Gates spent $1.9 million in the race, which resulted in getting 28 percent of the vote.

....

Gates’ chief campaign adviser is disgraced State Rep. Jim Keffer (R-Eastland).

From Gates' most recent campaign finance report:

That's only one payment to Murphy-Nasica.  Gates had dozens more.  The only reason we didn't screenshot all of them is because this blog post has already gotten long.

Easily $250k(+) to Murphy-Naiscia.  Just one finance report.  Just one election.

Learn more about Murphy-Nasica here.

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Allegations regarding children and "the A word":

We have no specific comment about them.

We weren't there.

But only a fool would overlook them.

Learn more here.

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Old White Dude:

Obviously, you don't want to make candidate decisions based upon identity politics.  In any given election, you're looking for the best candidate.  But that's not to say it's irrelevant.

Over the past decade, a lot has been written about how Ft. Bend County is now the most demographically diverse in the country.

There's nothing inherently wrong with running an old white dude.  It does, however, bring an additional set of challenges.  That being said, when the specific old white dude has the baggage listed above...it doesn't take a genius to see where this goes.

The other two credible Republican candidates were both female and less than a zillion years old.

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Bottom Line: For any other candidate, this runoff would be a slam dunk.  But for a candidate with this much baggage...who knows?!?  Way to go.