Screwy results in DMN/UT-Tyler poll

"Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits, whether they are of God; because many false prophets have gone out into the world."
1 John 4:1

[Note: While we were working on this blog post, the Hobby School at U of H released a poll that's likely much closer to reality.  Unfortunately, they didn't poll on Abbott or "issues."  So it makes an apples to apples comparison difficult.  Nevertheless, the U of H poll is consistent with the Texas Tribune poll from a couple weeks ago.]

There's been a poll making the rounds that alleges Biden is up by three statewide. It's being promoted by the ususal suspects for the obvious reasons. But consider some of the other results from the same poll.

Abbott overall job approval:

In other words, they're claiming Abbott has a 20 point net positive rating.  Maybe a year ago.  Not today.

Abbott COVID job approval:

Abbott at 52% approval on COVID is some LOL territory.

Police defunding in various idioms:

That's consistent with of private polling we've seen on the City of Austin on those two issues...but we've got to imagine those policies are less popular statewise.

Bottom Line: Oceanfront property. Arizona. Etc.

Biden hands Texas GOP late gift...will they exploit it?!?

"For we do not commend ourselves again to you, but give you opportunity to boast on our behalf, that you may have an answer for those who boast in appearance and not in heart."
2 Corinthians 5:12

Wow:

“The oil industry pollutes significantly,” Biden said. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time. Over time.”

Not a lot to add. That remark speaks for itself. Its' negative impact on Texas is obvious.

We were actually in the process of writing a long post about whether the GOP would respond to this...when the Governor and John Cornyn released the following statement:

.@GregAbbott_TX's statement on @JoeBiden's #Debates2020 comments last night about his proposal to phase out the #oilandgas industry. #txlege pic.twitter.com/Dn4aPcphkf

— Brad Johnson (@bradj_TX) October 23, 2020

That's actually a good start. But this needs to reach saturation level. Between now and election day, Biden's remark about eliminating the energy industry as we know it has to be inescapable.

Bottom Line: They don't deserve this level of gift. But they got it. We'll see what they do with it.

#TXLEGE: Worst Possible Republican Candidate > Entire Democrat Presidential Field

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Hahahahahahahahahahaha:

Last night marked the completion of the first elections of 2020 as the spotlight centered on three runoff elections for Texas House seats. The marquee race was in Fort Bend County, which saw Republican Gary Gates square off against Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a runoff that received national attention and all but overshadowed even the most contentious primary races up until last night.

In what can only be described as a strong victory for the Texas GOP, Republican candidate Gary Gates won the special election runoff with 58 percent of the vote, defeating his opponent with a 16-point margin of victory.

Fort Bend County has been a hotbed of political activity since Rep. John Zerwas (R-Richmond) retired in September. Texas Democrats rallied in hopes this race would begin their steady climb to regain control of the Texas House.

State and national Democrats largely threw their support behind one candidate, Eliz Markowitz. Former congressman and one-time presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke spent countless hours campaigning for Markowitz in an attempt to galvanize his supporters to help win the seat for Texas Democrats.

O’Rourke threw rallies, block walked, fundraised, and was present with Markowitz on the ground all throughout election day.

Political heavyweights like Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Wendy Davis all supported Markowitz either by endorsing her candidacy or even, in Bloomberg’s case, coming to Texas to knock on doors for the candidate.

National and state special interest groups, including the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Texas-based progressive women’s group Annie’s List, took advantage of the unorthodox election date and spent concentrated time, money, and attention on House District 28.

Altogether, approximately $1 million was spent on this state house race by Democrats and left-leaning allies.

 This is bad if you're a Democrat.

It's not just that the Democrats lost.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout after dropping seven figures.

It's that the Democrats lost, in a blowout, after dropping seven figures...to Gary frickin' Gates.

That would be the same Gary Gates who, prior to last night, was a seven time loser.

Yet Democrats failed.

It's pretty funny.

Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Three months ago, we outlined the degree to which Gary Gates was a terrible candidate.  There's an opposition research file an inch thick floating around on that guy.  For crying out loud, dude's a slumlord who made his money ripping off taxpayers.

But did the Democrats bring any of that up?!?  Not really.  The one time they tried to wade into any of it, they did it so poorly that it backfired.

Instead, Democrats gave us: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Bobby Francis O'Rourke...and redistricting.

And nobody cared.

What's even funnier is that Democrats didn't even heed the lessons of their own previous victories.  Typically, when Democrats are successful in swing areas, it's because they run vague campaigns about public education and traffic.  But they didn't do that this time.

Instead, they rolled out the list of national politicians listed above.  And they made redistricting the single substantive issue of their campaign.  And they lost.

To Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Miscellaneous takeaways:

• Voters don't care about redistricting -- This was the one substantive issue on which Democrats ran.  The results speak for themselves.  Turns out whining about how you can't rig the system to benefit yourself (which you're totally mad at the other guys for doing that) isn't a winning message.  Go figure.

• The Democrat presidential field sucks -- Five Democrat presidential candidates literally lost to Gary frickin' Gates.

• Julian Castro and Bobby Francis O'Rourke will never be elected statewide.
• Note: Only possible exception is a national environment that's 5 to 7 points worse for the GOP than 2018.

Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Bottom Line: Pretty funny.

#TXLEGE: National Democrats will probably blow their chance in HD-28 Special Election

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Is this a joke?!?

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is backing Eliz Markowitz in the special election runoff for state House District 28, her highest-profile endorsement yet in the battleground race.

Markowitz faces Republican businessman Gary Gates in the Jan. 28 race to replace former Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond. Democrats are working to flip the suburban Houston seat as they look to capture the House majority in November.

....

Biden, who is leading Texas presidential primary polls, is the latest White House contender to get involved in the runoff after Michael Bloomberg visited the district late last month to stump with Markowitz.

Soo, at a time when everyone is sick of national politics, the Democrats plan to win this seat is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Cuz' that strategy is doomed to failure.

Two months ago, we thought they had a legit shot in this race.  The GOP nominated a terrible candidate with a ton of baggage.  That's still the case.

Yet, two months later, all we're hearing about is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Even when they try to make an issue out of the afore mentioned baggage, this is the headline they get:

Newsflash: Nobody cares about what comes after the phrase "National Democrats target."  Whatever it is, it just sounds like a bogus political attack.  You just lost the messaging war by framing this as a political story.

Bottom Line: Had the past two months gone differently, it might have been possible.  Now, however, it's hard to see how this race deviates from long term historical averages.  Advantage, incumbent party.

EXCLUSIVE: Vice President Biden reacts to Jason Villalba

"He who walks with wise men will be wise,
But the companion of fools will be destroyed."
Proverbs 13:20

In a remarkable stroke of luck, Cahnman's Musings has recieved commentary from Vice President Joe Biden regarding Jason Villalba's performance in Wednesday night's debate:

In his opening statement, Villalba called Joe Straus "Reaganesque":



To which, Joe Biden says:

Villalba next tried to claim that killing legislation is "not the function of the speaker":



And the Vice President responds:

Next, Villalbla got Rinaldi's father's name wrong:



Vice President Biden:



After that, Villalba tried to tell a long story to distract from a political sleight of hand:



Leading Joe Biden to remark:



It got better when Villabla tried to claim his constituents support Straus:



Which made Biden's life easy:



Next, Villalba begged the crowd to find him a primary opponent:



Which confused the Vice President:



Finally, Villalba let the cat out of the bag as to the policies Joe Straus would implement:



To which, Joe Biden Agrees:



Thanks to the Vice President for his cooperation in this project....:D

Stickland channels Cruz

Hurst, TX -- In front of a packed house of 400 people, tonight's HD-92 debate between conservative incumbent Jonathan Stickland and educational bureaucrat Andy Cargile was a one-sided affair similar to the 2012 U.S. Senate race.

Stickland delivered a crisp and energetic performance worthy of Ted Cruz.  Speaking without notes or prepared remarks, Stickland explained how he went to Austin to fight the liberal agenda and "I did exactly what I said I'd do."  It was obvious why the business as usual crowd in Austin hates his guts.

Playing Dewhurst to Stickland's Ted Cruz was the befuddled, ill-prepared, and poorly-informed Andy Cargile.  Cargile opened the debate by drawing a bizarre comparison between Stickland and Barack Obama: "when you get a lot of words and no action, you get Barack Obama."  Cargile's statement ignores the fact that from Obamacare to an illegal and unconstitutional War in Libya to countless other examples, Obama has delivered plenty of action (none of it good).

Cargile's strangest moment in the debate was his assertion, during the discussion of immigration, that there are no sanctuary cities in Texas.  Stickland politely reminded Cargile that both Austin and Lewisville are sanctuary cities (he didn't mention Houston).  That Cargile didn't know such a basic fact speaks volumes.

The most telling contrast was each's description of his view of his role as a legislator.  Cargile called a seat in the Texas House "the next step" in his career.  Speaking second, Stickland pounced: "I don't define myself by my position" as a member of the legislature.

Another illuminating moment was the discussion about a more rational policy towards low-level marijuana offenses.  Cargile embraced prohibition with a Joe Biden-esque level of zeal.  Cargile attacked Stickland for voting against a bill last session that would ban so-called "synthetic" Marijuana.  In his well-informed response, Stickland rejected the premise of the legislation and simultaneously explained that the legislation in question would have criminalized a plant that grows naturally on the grounds of the Texas capitol.

Tonight's debate wasn't close.  Stickland delivered a sharp performance similar to Ted Cruz.  Cargile was fumbling at best.  By the end, a quarter of Cargile's supporters were quietly applauding Stickland.  If this was a Little League game, they would have invoked the mercy rule after ten minutes.

America's True Intolerance

A Must Read Letter from Franklin Graham:

Is Our Nation Intolerant of Christianity?

A Prayer Letter From Franklin Graham

May 31, 2013 - Christians must never compromise their allegiance to the Savior, no matter what others may think.

"We need God’s Word and His laws now more than ever."
— Franklin Graham

Recently I was at a White House meeting with Vice President Joe Biden and had the opportunity to remind him that our main problem in America is that we have taken God out of our society and out of our government. We need God’s Word and His laws now more than ever.

Disobedience to God’s Word and His laws has wreaked havoc across the political, economic, and spiritual landscape of our country. There is scandal after scandal, and yet our nation’s leaders seem even more belligerent toward Christians.

If we hold up God’s standards, we are accused of being intolerant. “Tolerance” is one of today’s hot buttons, but in reality the true and fast-growing “intolerance” is for Christianity—anything that stands for Jesus Christ.

You may have read recently about the IRS apology for targeting conservative groups in 2011–12. I was not surprised to hear this—BGEA was audited last September, and many believe it was because we encouraged voters to take a strong stand on same-sex marriage issues and biblical values. The audit process was complex and time consuming, but as we expected, it ended well. During the process, in fact, the focus that BGEA puts on sound management and financial accountability was acknowledged as excellent.

Christians must never compromise their allegiance to the Savior, no matter what others may think.

The Lord is looking for men and women who will fully commit their heart, soul, and lives to His kingdom. We find in 1 Samuel that Saul was anointed to lead the Hebrew people. At first he won favor with the people and was victorious in battle. But in chapter 13, we read that Saul feared the opinions of men more than the commands of almighty God.

In a raid in the desert outside Jerusalem against Israel’s enemy the Amalekites, God had told Saul to fully destroy this enemy along with all their possessions. Instead, Saul spared King Agag and kept some of the choice sheep and oxen. He disobeyed God’s command. When the Prophet Samuel arrived and saw the evidence of Saul’s clear disobedience, he pronounced God’s judgment. “Has the Lord as great delight in burnt offerings and sacrifices, as in obeying the voice of the Lord? Behold, to obey is better than sacrifice, and to listen than the fat of rams. ... Because you have rejected the word of the Lord, he has also rejected you from being king” (1 Samuel 15:22–23, ESV).

Think about it—partial obedience is really no obedience at all. Complete obedience is what the Lord desires. We must never back down from fully following Christ because we fear public opinion or the ridicule of others.
Jesus Christ has commanded us to “go ... and make disciples of all nations” (Matthew 28:19)—that commandment applies to each one of us, all of His followers. We can’t fix all the social injustices and problems of our day, but we have been called to take this Gospel to the ends of the earth. BGEA is an evangelistic ministry. We exist to proclaim the lifesaving Gospel of our Savior to as many as possible.

Right now, we have a great opportunity to be involved in reaching others through My Hope America with Billy Graham. It is a simple plan. Make a list of lost friends, acquaintances, and loved ones and begin fervently praying for their salvation. In November, each of us will invite people we care about to our home, church, or favorite hangout to watch a dynamic new program we are developing with a message from my father. You can learn more about participating at MyHopeWithBillyGraham.org. We have training available online to help equip you to share your faith.

A young man who has signed up to be a part of My Hope America wrote us recently to say that he had been praying for a long time for his brother’s salvation. While looking through the My Hope America resources we sent him, he felt a strong sense that the Holy Spirit was saying, “The time is now.” He realized God was prompting him to talk again to his brother about Jesus. “Having this conversation was hard for me at first,” he says, “but, boy, am I glad I was obedient, because today a man who once studied hard to try and prove that God was not real, now follows Jesus Christ!” God works through our lives in mighty ways when we are obedient to His leading.

Your prayers and financial support are critically important for carrying out the nationwide My Hope America outreach, and we are counting on your personal participation in helping to reach people you know who need the power of the Gospel in their lives. Thank you for all you do in serving our Lord.

May God bless you,

Franklin Graham, President

MSNBC's hilarious Joe Biden spin

This clip from MSNBC must be seen to be believed:

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Paul Ryan on National Security

Over the past month, I've had a lot of positive things to say about Mitt's approach to national security.  That's good, because Paul Ryan's national security positions are unspecific and vague.  On national security, Paul Ryan is a blank slate.

In looking into Paul Ryan's record on national security issues I was amazed at it's thinness, especially for someone who has been in Congress for a decade and a half.  Paul Ryan supports standard Republican boilerplate on Afghanistan, he voted for some sanctions against Iran, and he opposed cutting and running in Iraq five years ago.  That being said, Paul Ryan has maintained remarkable silence on many national security issues, from border security, to domestic Islamic subversion, to Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Paul Ryan does deserve credit, however, for his position on Obama's War in Libya.  Last year, Paul Ryan said:

"[Obama] didn't go to Congress, didn't ask for authority, the leading from behind strategy at NATO I think was very strange, and I don't think they had a mission well defined.

This is important, because it demonstrates that Paul Ryan understands that the issue of Congressional approval supersedes any discussion of the merits or demerits of the policy.

I had hoped Mitt would pick Alan West or Michele Bachmann, both of whom have demonstrated national security leadership in the past year.  That obviously didn't happen.  Paul Ryan's addition to the ticket tells us nothing about the national security policies of a Romney/Ryan administration.

Bottom Line: Paul Ryan is a blank slate on National Security.  Unlike Barack Obama and Joe Biden, however, neither Mitt Romney nor Paul Ryan is actively committing treason against the United States.  That's good enough.

Update: John Bolton on this topic.