#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar

"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:

A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”

We're of two minds about this:

• Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
• Note: This is the likely explanation.

** OR **

• They know something the rest of us don't.
• Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.

Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Notorious Pay to Play practitioner endorses Billionaire

"One who increases his possessions by usury and extortion
Gathers it for him who will pity the poor."
Proverbs 28:8

Lolz:

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner endorsed Michael Bloomberg for president, Bloomberg’s campaign announced Thursday morning.

The backing of the mayor of the fourth largest city in America is Bloomberg’s most high profile Texas endorsement yet. It also gives Bloomberg another nod from a prominent black elected official as the billionaire grapples with pushback over his use of “stop and frisk” policies while he was mayor of New York City.

“As mayor, Mike embraced New York’s diversity and made smart investments that brought better infrastructure and greater opportunity to all five boroughs,” Turner, a Democrat, said in a statement released by the campaign. “We need a president who knows how cities run. It’s why I’m proud to endorse Mike for president, and I look forward to sending him to Washington in November.”

This is the point, dear reader, when the value of someone familiar with the inner workings of politics in BOTH New York City and Texas shows itself.

Because, if you know how each of this figures has operated for years, none of this is surprising.

First up, Turner:

Houston's Four Seasons hotel has a pretty pricey breakfast, but the big money on February 16, 2016, had nothing to do with the $19 egg breakfast. Emails from Houston City Hall show Mayor Sylvester Turner was at the Four Seasons that morning with the then-CEO of Kelsey-Seybold, the health clinic's marketing director and their city lobbyist for a breakfast meeting at 8 in the morning.

By 9 a.m., the meeting was over and an email from the lobbyist to the mayor's secretary says it "went very well."

The day went well for the Mayor's campaign, too. City records show on that very day the mayor's campaign reported $81,350 in donations from more than 120 Kelsey-Seybold doctors and executives. The campaign could've received the checks anytime between when Turner was sworn in and when he ate with the Kelsey team. When 13 Investigates looked the donor's names up in city databases, we found 87 percent of them had never given to a city political candidate ever before.

Michael Wynne, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney described the donations as "very, very unusual." Wynne is a former federal prosecutor who handled cases dealing with campaign donations. He now works to defend people accused of breaking those laws. He's not supporting anyone in Houston's mayoral race.

After reviewing the donations, Wynne told 13 Investigates, "In this instance, the number of people who had never been involved in the political circus whatsoever, all of a sudden decide to get involved. I think it's something that demands a little more scrutiny."

Meanwhile, Bloomberg:

The foundation of Bloomberg’s imperial mayoralty is, obviously, money. He’s used his vast personal fortune—$17.5 billion at last Forbes estimate—relentlessly and creatively to reverse the standard political dynamic: Instead of the special interests’ buying off the politicians, the city’s top politician has bought off the special interests. Money has allowed him to create the Bloomberg Party, whose clubhouse is the business elite and whose field troops are enlisted issue by issue. Bloomberg employs large segments of the city’s political class, directly and indirectly, and his philanthropy, often done in secret, gives him a very large circle of friends. Opposing him can be an exceedingly lonely occupation.

....

Bloomberg has certainly deepened the financial bond—or dependency—through the strategic use of his checkbook. His charitable contributions have increased exponentially from when he first decided to run for mayor. In 1999, he gave away $47 million; last year, the figure was $235 million. Some of the money is funneled through the Carnegie Corporation, as supposedly anonymous gifts. Last year, 542 New York charities and nonprofits received $60 million of such gifts.

Money is a stealth weapon in Bloomberg’s political arsenal. And, as fund-raiser-in-chief, the mayor can leverage his own giving by tapping his well-heeled associates. “The mayor has an enormous influence in charity, and he does so much of it anonymously,” Rubenstein says. “I talk to some of the institutions who are clients and I say, ‘Why don’t you appeal to the mayor for money?’ They say, ‘What do you mean, appeal? He’s been funding us for years!’ I just had that discussion a couple of days ago with one of my museum clients.”

Bloomberg has also ramped up his purely political spending. Some of it is surreptitious: In 2008, three of Bloomberg’s closest friends and business associates suddenly wrote checks for $50,000 to the Working Families Party. The money was then steered to State Senate candidate Daniel Squadron, who’d won Bloomberg’s endorsement in a race to unseat a longtime incumbent

This is a classic case of baksheesh.

Bottom Line: This morning's announcement should surprise nobody who's followed the respective careers of Sylvester Turner and Michael Bloomberg.

-------

Note: That being said, it would be pretty funny is somebody asked Bloomberg and Turner about the Astros cheating scandal.

#TXLEGE: Worst Possible Republican Candidate > Entire Democrat Presidential Field

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Hahahahahahahahahahaha:

Last night marked the completion of the first elections of 2020 as the spotlight centered on three runoff elections for Texas House seats. The marquee race was in Fort Bend County, which saw Republican Gary Gates square off against Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a runoff that received national attention and all but overshadowed even the most contentious primary races up until last night.

In what can only be described as a strong victory for the Texas GOP, Republican candidate Gary Gates won the special election runoff with 58 percent of the vote, defeating his opponent with a 16-point margin of victory.

Fort Bend County has been a hotbed of political activity since Rep. John Zerwas (R-Richmond) retired in September. Texas Democrats rallied in hopes this race would begin their steady climb to regain control of the Texas House.

State and national Democrats largely threw their support behind one candidate, Eliz Markowitz. Former congressman and one-time presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke spent countless hours campaigning for Markowitz in an attempt to galvanize his supporters to help win the seat for Texas Democrats.

O’Rourke threw rallies, block walked, fundraised, and was present with Markowitz on the ground all throughout election day.

Political heavyweights like Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Wendy Davis all supported Markowitz either by endorsing her candidacy or even, in Bloomberg’s case, coming to Texas to knock on doors for the candidate.

National and state special interest groups, including the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Texas-based progressive women’s group Annie’s List, took advantage of the unorthodox election date and spent concentrated time, money, and attention on House District 28.

Altogether, approximately $1 million was spent on this state house race by Democrats and left-leaning allies.

 This is bad if you're a Democrat.

It's not just that the Democrats lost.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout.  It's not just that the Democrats lost in a blowout after dropping seven figures.

It's that the Democrats lost, in a blowout, after dropping seven figures...to Gary frickin' Gates.

That would be the same Gary Gates who, prior to last night, was a seven time loser.

Yet Democrats failed.

It's pretty funny.

Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Three months ago, we outlined the degree to which Gary Gates was a terrible candidate.  There's an opposition research file an inch thick floating around on that guy.  For crying out loud, dude's a slumlord who made his money ripping off taxpayers.

But did the Democrats bring any of that up?!?  Not really.  The one time they tried to wade into any of it, they did it so poorly that it backfired.

Instead, Democrats gave us: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Bobby Francis O'Rourke...and redistricting.

And nobody cared.

What's even funnier is that Democrats didn't even heed the lessons of their own previous victories.  Typically, when Democrats are successful in swing areas, it's because they run vague campaigns about public education and traffic.  But they didn't do that this time.

Instead, they rolled out the list of national politicians listed above.  And they made redistricting the single substantive issue of their campaign.  And they lost.

To Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Miscellaneous takeaways:

• Voters don't care about redistricting -- This was the one substantive issue on which Democrats ran.  The results speak for themselves.  Turns out whining about how you can't rig the system to benefit yourself (which you're totally mad at the other guys for doing that) isn't a winning message.  Go figure.

• The Democrat presidential field sucks -- Five Democrat presidential candidates literally lost to Gary frickin' Gates.

• Julian Castro and Bobby Francis O'Rourke will never be elected statewide.
• Note: Only possible exception is a national environment that's 5 to 7 points worse for the GOP than 2018.

Gary frickin' Gates.

-------

Bottom Line: Pretty funny.

#TXLEGE: National Democrats will probably blow their chance in HD-28 Special Election

"Wisdom is found on the lips of him who has understanding,
But a rod is for the back of him who is devoid of understanding."
Proverbs 10:13

Is this a joke?!?

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is backing Eliz Markowitz in the special election runoff for state House District 28, her highest-profile endorsement yet in the battleground race.

Markowitz faces Republican businessman Gary Gates in the Jan. 28 race to replace former Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond. Democrats are working to flip the suburban Houston seat as they look to capture the House majority in November.

....

Biden, who is leading Texas presidential primary polls, is the latest White House contender to get involved in the runoff after Michael Bloomberg visited the district late last month to stump with Markowitz.

Soo, at a time when everyone is sick of national politics, the Democrats plan to win this seat is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Cuz' that strategy is doomed to failure.

Two months ago, we thought they had a legit shot in this race.  The GOP nominated a terrible candidate with a ton of baggage.  That's still the case.

Yet, two months later, all we're hearing about is...Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg?!?

Even when they try to make an issue out of the afore mentioned baggage, this is the headline they get:

Newsflash: Nobody cares about what comes after the phrase "National Democrats target."  Whatever it is, it just sounds like a bogus political attack.  You just lost the messaging war by framing this as a political story.

Bottom Line: Had the past two months gone differently, it might have been possible.  Now, however, it's hard to see how this race deviates from long term historical averages.  Advantage, incumbent party.

CD 5 runoff: NRA Stabs Texas Conservatives in the Back (All Over Again)....

"A false witness shall not be unpunished: and he that speaketh lies, shall perish."
Proverbs 19:9

Wow:

NRA endorsement of Lance Gooden by Cahnman on Scribd

This is sad; it was also predictable.

Lance Gooden is an awful state representative, but it wasn't until we saw this announcement that we realized the degree to which his underwhelming record extends to the Second Amendment. 

Did Gooden support constitutional carry last session?!?  Two bills were filed.  Nope and nope.

The funniest part, however, is that the stupid "fee reduction" bill to which they refer was so meaningless that the Bloomberg Fembots didn't even object to it at the time.

Bottom Line: Nobody thought the post-Parkland Kumbaya session would last, but this is a spectacular failure even by the standards of the National Rino Association....

Book Review: Hands Off My Gun, by Dana Loesch

"For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age,[a] against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places. 13 Therefore take up the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand."
Ephesians 6:12-13

Did you know that Martin Luther King Jr. was denied a permit to own a handgun "as a result of gun control laws put into effect by white male Democrats" (146)?!?  Neither did we.  Then we read Hands Off My Gun: Defeating the plot to disarm America, Dana Loesch's cogent, succinct defense of the second amendment.

Loesch's 2014 release is one stop shopping for those who support the Second Amendment but don't have all the facts memorized.  While the entire book is worth reading, the most riveting chapters detail the degree to which anti-Second Amendment advocates hire private security, the ability of women to use firearms to protect themselves from rape, and the origins of gun control in the Jim Crow south.  Historically, disarming the target population has been a pre-condition for other attacks on civil liberties.

Loesch's zeal for the Second Amendment gained a sense of urgency in 2009 (7), when her family still lived in St. Louis.  That summer, during the first round of Tea Party protests, a man named Kenneth Gladney was beaten by Union Thugs outside of a Missouri congressman's town hall (8).  While the story made national headlines, for those of us outside St. Louis it faded into the background.  Loesch, however, was living it.  After the national media moved on, as she continued to cover the story locally, Loesch received threats and was followed around town (9).  Then, they threatened her children (10).  To understand's Dana Loesch's commitment to the Second Amendment, you have to understand that story.

Women's self-defense is one of the strongest motifs in the book.  As Loesch explains, firearms are "the ultimate equalizer for women" (140).  She details several examples where women have used firearms to prevent assault and, sadly, others where disarmed women were left to the mercy of their rapists.  Unfortunately, women's safety is unimportant to anti-Second Amendment politicans.  Austin Police Chief Art Acevedo's recent comments are a representative example:



Hands Off My Gun lists more facts than we can include in a seven-paragraph review.  Many of them were new to this author.  Examples include:

• The mother of the Sandy Hook shooter, Nancy Lanza, "had failed to properly and safely store her guns."  (29)

• "Three Sandy Hooks take place every month in Chicago, the progressive model for gun control." (39)

• All of the victims of the Columbine shooting "were killed within the first 15 minutes of the shooting." (109)

• That "anti-gun extremists don't even want our troops to carry on base, which has resulted in several massacres over the past few years on our military bases, twice at Fort Hood." (144)

• The anti-Second Amendment reasoning behind the Dred Scott decision. (152)

• The goal of taxing firearms ownership in the Jim Crow south "was a set of laws that made guns too expensive for black Southerners to afford." (157)

• During the revolution, "the patriots were armed from the start of the war with the British Brown Bess, which was the firearm of choice for the British Army." (168)

Our only beef with the book is that it fails to discuss abortion.  It's not a secret that some of the loudest anti-Second Amendment advocates, who hide behind "protecting children," are also some of the most rabidly pro-abortion.  Michael Bloomberg is a case in point.  Personally, we've always found this reprehensible.  That being said, we understand why it would not be considered germane to a discussion of the second amendment.

Citizens are responsible for their self-defense.  While law enforcement and the corrections system aid public safety (most of the time), they are inherently reactive.  Protection, by contrast, is proactive.  This is even more true for women.    Unfortunately, anti-Second Amendment Extremists have targeted our civil liberties.  Defending them requires us to be armed with truth.  Hands off My Gun, by Dana Loesch, is a fantastic place to start.

Constitutional Carry: Grassroots Texans Speak

"Every one of the builders had his sword girded at his side as he built. And the one who sounded the trumpet was beside me."
Nehemiah 4:18

Update: Breitbart Texas has more here.

Texas State Capitol -- This afternoon, representatives from every credible pro-Second Amendment organization in Texas spoke at the Capitol on Constitutional carry and the second amendment.  The speakers discussed bills in front of the currently convened legislature and worthwhile primary challenges (cough*Straus* cough) heading into the 2016 cycle.  Speakers featured below:

Melanie Davis (Love Your Vets; One Million Rounds):



Highlights:

• Veterans standing beside us in this fight.

• They need our support as much as we need freedom.

• Recycling spend brass shell casings into Art

• Donate shell casings.

• Crowd sourced project.

Craig McMichael, USMC; Congressional Candidate:

Highlights:

• "Our enemies are domestic right now."

• "Just because I took my uniform off, I didn't take my oath off."

• "We need to talk about politics more than football."

C.J. Grisham (Open Carry Texas):

Highlights:

• We have a lot of "Facebook rangers," not enough people putting "skin in the game."

• We're begging for a right that 44 (licensed open) and 31 (no license) already recognize.

• Under current law: "If I pick up my pant leg, I'd be a criminal."

• "A thin piece of cloth is what separates you from being a law-abiding citizen and a criminal."

•  Mom's Demand Action (but totally not in a pornographic way) Assaults: "At least one we know of."

• "Joe Straus doesn't want to offend his Democratic [sic] supporters.

• "Joe Straus needs to be primaried next election."

• "We need Patriots to step up and run for office."
• Even if you lose, you change behavior.
• Case in point: Lamar Smith.

• Show up face to face.

Terry Holcomb (Texas Carry):

Highlights:

• Running against John Otto.

• It only takes 3% of the country to change the country.

• Brings up people who have been illegally arrested.

• Gun rights is the foundation of liberty.

• "We need Texas to start leading."

• MDA not welcome in Texas.

• People are going to intentionally try to sabotage this bill.

• Ask that SB 342 get a fair hearing.

• "The primaries start in September."

• Feds are talking about banning rifle rounds.

• TSRA protects members, never leads
• Didn't do squat to pass open carry.
• Like Joe Pojman.

Pat Cook (2014 Ft. Hood shooting survivor):

Highlights:

• It's exhausting watching everyone every second.

• CHL may be revoked at any time, or suspended during a criminal investigation.
• Author's Note: It Happened to Rick Perry.

• A right does not belong to the government.

• Constitutional carry is a vindication for every crime victim.

• The people are not the property of the state.

• "The progressive era of the 20th century is coming to a close."

• Put permitted carry in the "trashcan of history."

Tom Jefferson (Lone Star Gun Rights):

Highlights:

• Delivered 70,000 constitutional carry petitions.

• "What can't Texas trust Texans?!?"

• "A restraining order is just a piece of paper."

• "No proof that openly carrying creates crime; it's been proven otherwise, to deter a crime."

• 80-90% support unlicensed open carry.

Rep. Jonathan Stickland:

Highlights:

• "This issue doesn't have a bunch of special interest $$$ behind it."

• They want to protect members from "bad votes."

• "When I read the Second Amendment, I don't see any room for compromise on this issue."

• "We are going to vote on Constitutional carry."

• "Most legislators will give you just what you're willing to take (and nothing more)."

• "Open Carry with a license is not enough in the Republican primary."

• "We are going to put elected officials on the record."

Texas Firearms Celebrity Michael Cargill:

Highlights:

• "Here we go again...."

• "If we truly believe in Texas independence, we will pass constitutional carry."

• Criminals already carry.

• Keep legislators on their toes.

• "More guns equals less crime, go out and buy yourself a gun."

2 Chronicles 7:14 and Hurricane Sandy

"If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will hear their land." 2 Chronicles 7:14

"For God sent not His Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved." John 3:17 

"And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them that are called according to His purpose."  Romans 8:28 

I was  going to write a political piece about the chaos in Brooklyn, Staten Island, and New Jersey, but the political problems are obvious; I want to say something else.

The solution is humility, not defiant pride.

New York is great at defiant pride.  New York was defiantly proud after 9/11.  New York continues to be defiantly proud.  How's that working out?!?  The economy still sucks, people are eating out of dumpsters, and the Yankees have only won the World Series once since 9/11.

No government activity or politician will solve this; not even Rudy.  The only way out of this is through our churches.  In humility there is hope, but defiant pride will continue to bear bitter fruit, and it will get worse.

That being said, pray for Michael Bloomberg.  We're stuck with him for another year.  As much as I agree with Glenn Beck's sentiment, potty mouthed tirades won't help.  Michael Bloomberg needs a radical change of heart, and there's only one way that will happen.  What's the alternative?!?

One final note: if you play fantasy football, I have a funny feeling that this could be a really good week to start Tim Tebow....