GOP Runoff Quick Takes: Basically A Muddle

"Moreover you shall select from all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers of thousands, rulers of hundreds, rulers of fifties, and rulers of tens."
Exodus 18:21

[Note: We didn't really do that...but what else is new.]

We don't really feel like doing a long analysis of what happened, but some thoughts:

• Abbott had an ok night.  But it wasn't anything special.  He's not really an asset, but neither is he toxic.  Long-term fate remains TBD.

• Dan Flynn and J.D. Sheffield prove that incumbents with really bad records can still get popped.

• Justin Berry and Glen Rodgers prove that, in open seat races where you can pretend to be all things to all people, good ol' boy cash can get you across the finish line.

• Speaking of those two, it's going to be fascinating to see what happens to their districts after redistricting...but we suspect both will have to introduce themselves to a lot of new voters in two years.

• Carrie Isaac and Shelby Slawson prove that good candidates win.

• Kathleen Wall proves that, no matter how much of your own money you light on fire, baseless, over-the-top accusations rarely stick.  Such a waste.  Congratulations Kathleen, you're the new David Dewhurst.

Bottom Line: A bunch of stuff we already knew got proven all over again.

About Tuesday Night....

"Trust in the Lord with all your heart,
And lean not on your own understanding;"
Proverbs 3:5

Well it's done.

By now, you know the damage: 2 congressional seats, 2 Texas Senate seats, 11/12 Texas house seats.  Dozens of Judicial Races.

We've been analyzing and reflecting for several days, and we're starting to reach some conclusions.

It's impossible to know how much of a role each of these factors played, but together they combined to produce the results described above.

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Before we begin, let's clear up one myth (with two flipsides) that we've seen pop up in the media and in other discussions.

Tuesday's results had nothing to do with whether the GOP was either a) "Too Conservative" or b) "Not conservative enough."

Republicans from all over the ideological spectrum lost.  When Matt Rinaldi and Tony Dale both lose, it ain't ideological.  It might, however, have something to do with the similarities between their districts.

Anyone using Tuesday's results as an excuse to settle scores from the primary should be ignored.

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ANY Republican President:

On Tuesday night, we called Trump "toxic."  Having had several days to research history and talk with sources, we think that statement was a shortsighted exaggeration.  Trump definitely made it worse, but a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president.

Over the past three decades, down ballot races in Texas have tended to go against the party of the president.  This is especially true in the second half of the decade.  This was true in the 90's under Clinton (to the R's benefit).  It was true in the 2000's under both Bush and Obama (first for D's then for R's).  It's been true this decade under Obama and Trump (first for R's then for D's).  The only exception was during Dubya's post 9/11 honeymoon.

A lot of those districts had been blue in the not too distant past.  They only flipped in 2010.  If anything, our biggest mistake was to assume Obama-era partisan splits would continue indefinitely.

On Wednesday morning, Republican data guru Derek Ryan tweeted:

The following are totals for the Texas House.

In 1980, Democrats drew maps. They elected 114 Ds in 1982. By 1988, the total was down to 93.

In 1990, Democrats drew maps. They elected 92 Ds in 1992. By 1998, the total was down to 78.
(2/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

In 2000, Republicans drew maps. They elected 88 Rs in 2002. By 2008, the total was down to 76.

In 2010, Republicans drew maps. They elected 95 Rs in 2012. In 2018, the total is now down to 83.
(3/3)

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) November 8, 2018

While Ryan was making a separate point about gerrymandering, his data is still consistent with our observation that these races tend to go against the party of the president.

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Trump:

While a lot of this would have happened under any Republican president, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the current Republican president made it worse.

Donald Trump causes a lot more people to vote.  2016 was the all time record for any Texas election.  2018 was the midterm record.  Across the political spectrum, turnout is up.

Here's the problem: While both sides are drawing more voters, this proportionally helps Democrats because they're starting from a lower base.

Consider the case of Glenn Hegar.  Glenn Hegar is probably the closest thing you've got to "generic Republican" on a statewide ballot.  The relationship between the raw vote totals and the percentages in Hegar's two elections is instructive.

2014:

2018:

In 2018, Glenn Hegar got approximately 1.7 million additional votes over his 2014 total.  His 2018 Democrat opponent got approximately 1.8 million additional votes over his 2014 opponent. While those raw vote totals are comparable, because the Democrats are starting from a lower base, that means it benefits them proportionally.

More people are voting on both sides.  But they're voting in a way that proportionally benefits Democrats.  It's worth a five point shift in the generic ballot.

Then there's the unprecedented DEBACLE in the judiciary.

"Before Trump's visit, Cruz's internal numbers had him leading by double digits statewide. In the days after, his lead dropped to 5 points."https://t.co/sqhGVkYjk1

— Aman Batheja (@amanbatheja) November 9, 2018

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Cruz:

While any Republican President would have dug a hole, and this one dug it deeper, Ted Cruz kept digging.  What kind of campaign gets into a two week argument with its top supporters over yard signs?!?

Cruz's biggest problem is baggage from the presidential campaign.  While each move made sense at the time, Cruz has been all over the map as it relates to Trump.  It's hurt him.  Badly.

Cruz's failures deserve their own blog post, but where national/Presidential factors cost the GOP 5 points, Cruz's personal failures cost him an additional 2.5 points in his own race.

It was the type of campaign David Dewhurst might have run.

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Godawful messaging:

Off the top of your head, what was the Texas GOP's message this year?!?

We can come up with two things: Abbott's MS-13 ad and the U.S. Senate's race's detour into the NFL protests; Chris Hooks has a longer list of some of the dumber aspects of this campaign here.

In recent years, the Texas GOP has run intellectually lazy general election campaigns against the boogeyman du jour.  They've stopped making a proactive case for liberty.  It's the old adage: Tell me what your for, not what you're against.

Not very long ago, it wasn't this way.  In 2010, Rick Perry campaigned on the tenth amendment.  In 2012, Cruz campaigned on restoring the federal government to its constitutional role.  In 2014, Abbott campaigned on the sanctity of life and fixing traffic.

In 2018, we got a lot less of that.

Imagine, instead, a world where Abbott spent the final months of the campaign talking about property taxes while Cruz spent the final month talking about health care freedom.

We suspect a lot of down-ballot Republicans wish they had.

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Voter Fraud:

We have no specific knowledge of specific cases.  But only a fool would discount the possibility.  Especially in the close races (look at Florida and Arizona).

As Hugh Hewitt famously wrote: "If it's not close, they can't cheat."

Unfortunately, for the reasons listed above, Republicans let it get close.

Who knows?!?

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Corrupt/Atrophied GOP leadership/infrastructure in Williamson and Hays Counties:

For many years, Republicans in Williamson and Hays counties have been more interested in crony capitalism than conservative governance.

For many years, activists warned the GOP leadership in those respective counties that such a course of action would wipe them out if a Democrat wave emerged.

That happened on Tuesday; especially in Hays.

Both county parties have needed a housecleaning for years.  Now they might get one.
They should both follow Montgomery County's lead.

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O'Rourke:

Given the myriad GOP failures, it's tough to know how much he created for himself.

At a minimum, he recognized the opportunity early and went for it.

There's no denying his fundraising haul was impressive.

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Bottom Line: There are any number of reasons why things went down the way that they did.  We need to address what we can.  But the scary part is how much was beyond our control.

Lessons for the Texas GOP:
1) Trump-like personality/demeanor is detrimental in the suburbs.
2) Failing to campaign on the GOP's natural advantage on pocketbook issues like tax reform in a personable manner is stupid.
3) There is no political campaign Jeff Roe cannot screw up.

— Michael Openshaw (@mopenshaw) November 7, 2018

George P. Bush, David Dewhurst, (shady real estate mechanisms), and YOUR taxes

"For nothing is secret that will not be revealed, nor anything hidden that will not be known and come to light."
Luke 8:17

Obscure, complicated, fight over education funding broke out last week:

A fight is brewing between Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush and Republicans on the State Board of Education over investment funds they manage to generate school funding.

For the first time ever, the School Land Board — a three-person body headed by Bush, a Republican — declined to pass any money from its fund to the education board, instead opting to feed $600 million to schools directly.

In response, education board members say they will have to reduce their own contributions toward school funding. And they’re also calling for this complex investment system to be reformed in the next legislative session.

As each side argues over how to best manage the largest educational endowment in the country, their disagreement could affect funding for Texas schools.

The crux of their fight rests on whose investment portfolio is the most profitable.

Since 2001, the land office and the education board have each managed separate portfolios as part of the $40 billion Permanent School Fund, a massive endowment of land and investments set up to support public schools in the state. That money makes up one piece of a broader school finance system in Texas, which also uses funds from local property taxes, state taxes and federal programs to support public schools.

The land office, which manages the real estate and mineral leases on the fund’s land, passed along millions each year from its fund to the education board’s own fund for securities investments.

In the past eight funding cycles, it had twice contributed $300 million directly into school funding, in addition to giving the SBOE anywhere from $200 million to $500 million.

But for the first time, the School Land Board voted not to pass along any money at all to the education board. Instead, all three of the board’s members voted to put $600 million directly into school funding — the maximum allowed under state law.

“Our dollars are needed more than ever, and this was the most direct way to get the money to the schoolchildren of Texas,” Karina Erickson, a spokesperson for Bush, said.

Bush has insisted that the land office's investment fund is more profitable, and thus where it makes the most financial sense to keep school money.

But state board members have disputed his claims, instead accusing the land commissioner of getting involved in school funding to boost his political profile.

The (extremely) short version of what's happening: George P. Bush is hoarding cash in his own agency.  That gap will have to get made up somewhere.  The most likely places are the legislature or local property taxes.  Either one of those outcomes would likely forestall meaningful property tax reform.

So that's bad, but what's more interesting is how we got into this mess in the first place.

In 2001, back when he was Land Commissioner, David Dewhurst (of all people) got the legislature to pass HB 3558: Relating to the sale, lease, and purchase of interests in real property for the permanent school fund.  Essentially, the bill allowed the land office to act as a landlord/real estate developer in the name of "education funding."  Companies with good lobbyists could get favorable tax treatment.  It's pretty much the most Texas government thing ever!

Well:

The state-of-the-art Wal-Mart Distribution Center, located in the Houston Ship Channel area, is the newest and largest Wal-Mart import and distribution facility in the country.

....

Phase II is another 2 million-square-foot bulk storage facility and distribution warehouse consisting of four attached 500,000-square-foot buildings on a 238.80-acre site. Construction (site preparation) began in August of 2004 and Phase II was completed in May of 2005.

The transaction was a significant public/private venture between Wal-Mart Stores East LP and the Texas Permanent School Fund represented by the Texas General Land Office. This is the biggest real-estate transaction ever for the PSF, a $21 billion investment pool that generates about $800 million a year to help pay for the state's share of public education.

Wal-Mart purchased the land and built the two structures that were under contract for sale to the Permanent School Fund. The agreement also included a leaseback provision that was based on bond lease terms at a blended rate of 6.12 percent of the value of the property for the first five years or $6.12 million annually for that period.

The project transaction was conceived in conjunction with Chambers County officials with help from the Governor's Office of Economic Development.

The collaboration of a public entity, the largest retail organization in the world and a governmental agency on a real estate transaction posed certain challenges not familiar to private sector transactions.

This transaction was the first of its kind for the Texas General Land Office, and the asset management and legal departments had to interpret new legislation that allowed the agency to purchase the property. Working together, both departments and Wal-Mart came up with the creative solutions needed to close this transaction in a relatively short period of time for such a large and complicated deal.

Additionally, Chambers County was instrumental in attracting Wal-Mart to the Cedar Crossing Industrial Park. The county's cooperation facilitated Wal-Mart's decision to make their site selection in Chambers County.

So the legislature created a complicated system of using real estate transactions to "fund schools" and the first thing is was used for...was to give tax breaks to Wal-Mart.

Got it.

Bottom Line: This entire wretched system should probably be abolished (or, at least, significantly reformed).  But, at a minimum, dedicated funds should be used for their intended purpose.  George P. Bush is rapidly turning himself into a liability we can't afford....

The nastiest, most negative, campaign since Dewhurst

"A false witness will not go unpunished,
And he who speaks lies shall perish."
Proverbs 19:9

Before we leave the RPT convention, one final point deserves discussion: The noxious vindictiveness of Cindy Crocker Asche's campaign.

Asche's campaign was never about anything more than power for the sake of power.  There's an entrenched group that's been running this state for a long, long, time.  They're losing power.  They don't want to give it up.

Cindy Crocker Asche was their chosen vehicle.

Of course, you can't run a campaign on your desire to contain power within a small clique.  So they went with specious character attacks.  Securities fraud!  Accounting irregularities!  James Dickey fired incompetent people on staff!  It was a farce, and everyone knew it was a farce (some people played along with the farce for the sake of power).  Friday afternoon's stunt was merely the icing on the cake.

But, of course, we've seen this before.

In 2012 and 2014, everybody knew that David Dewhurst was interested in nothing more than power for the sake of power.  So Dewhurst was losing.  So Dewhurst attacked.  Ted Cruz is a Red Chinese Tire Manufacturer!  Dan Patrick spent time in a mental institution!  You know the results.  That Dewhurst got ripped off by his campaign consultants was the icing on the cake.

Bottom Line: Good riddance to both....

#TXLEGE: Abbott's property tax plan likely faces similar trajectory as Perry's 2013 "Budget Compact"....

"That which has been is what will be,
That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun."
Ecclesiastes 1:9

We've seen this movie before.

Setting: The Governor of Texas announces a fantastic fiscal policy proposal a year before the next legislative session.  The Lt. Governor signs on and the relevant activist/policy groups tout it's merit.  Then, once session gets underway, the proposal dies due to a combination of a couple intransigent Senators, a house that likes to spend money (no matter what they say on the campaign trail), and a Governor too distracted to get his own policy proposal implemented.

We've discussed more than once how Rick Perry's 2013 "Texas Budget Compact" proposal was our formative experience in the Texas legislature.  It's worth reviewing that history in the context of Greg Abbott's current property tax proposal.  We don't think all that much has really changed.

In 2012, following the collapse of his first Presidential campaign, then-Governor Rick Perry returned home and outlined a very strong package of budget/transparency reforms he wanted to see the legislature implement.  Under pressure from Ted Cruz during their original U.S. Senate race, then-Lt. Governor Dewhurst quickly signed on.  Empower Texans and TPPF did everything right.

Then, we got into the legislative session in 2013.  Joe Straus did what Joe Straus does.  Dewhurst, despite a good faith effort, couldn't line up the votes he needed in the Senate.  And Rick Perry was more interested in bashing California on Fox News than doing the day-to-day work of the Governor of Texas.

Sound familiar?!?

To be fair, a few things have are different since then, specifically:

• The Senate has a) changed the 21-vote threshold to 19, and b) grown significantly more conservative in its membership.

• Joe Straus, personally, is leaving.

Both of those changes are positive...but it's an open question whether either is a big enough to get Abbott's property tax proposal across the finish line.

While Abbott's proposal has a decent chance in the Senate, it's not a slam dunk.  Charles Perry pulled some major league shenanigans on property taxes during the recent special session.  Bob Nichols is always a wild card.  There's a 50/50 chance Seliger returns.  Even if Lt. Governor Patrick can line up 19 votes, doing so could easily involve icky legislative trade-offs.

On the house side, as the membership currently stands, 76 votes DO NOT EXIST for Abbott's proposal.  That's true regardless of the next speaker's identity.  For that to change, conservatives are going to need to have a very, very good primary season.

A better speaker can get a bill to the floor, but you still need 76 votes.

Bottom Line: Don't get your hopes up.

Wallace Hall speaks IN DAN FLYNN'S DISTRICT!!!

"And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart."
Galatians 6:9

Last night, Wallace Hall spoke in Dan Flynn's district to inform Flynn's constituents of his activities on behalf of Joe Straus' impeachment committee:



Highlights:

• All of his kids have been attending U.T. this entire time.

• "Rot...manifests itself in our political class."

• "I expect to disagree with people on the opposite side of issues, I don't expect to be misled by people on my side who tell us one thing and do another."

• "Texas is a red state, how in the world are we being governed by moderates?!?"

• Straus holds power: "by the unanimous support of the Democrats in the Texas House."

• "I consider a vote for Speaker Straus to be a vote for sanctuary cities."

• "I care deeply about education."

• Nobody criticizes what he's found.

• UT- Austin is the only system institution where he's had a problem, the other 13 system institutions have been fine.

• Flynn's Chief of Staff lied about impeachment committee finding forgivable loan program.

• Spring 2013: "I asked for two sets of data."

Highlights:

• "I had asked for all open records to be put online."
• "I've been working on this since February 2011."
• Still hasn't happened.

• "I made a request for communication between the President [Powers] and politicians."
• "When this happened, some of the most powerful politicians in the state came after me."
• Dewhurst, Jim Pitts, Dan Branch, Zaffirini, Seliger.
• "They trolled Dallas looking for dirt on me and my family."
• "I received some very aggressive e-mails."

• Paul Foster ambushed him and asked for his resignation.

• Straus instigated impeachment: "To protect his members."

• Flynn's impeachment committee: "I was denied the right to council" and other cross examination.

• Flynn refused to subpeona him, which would have allowed him to testify fully.

• "I call what Dan Flynn did a gross abuse of his power and a kick in the teeth to all Texans who are the rightful owners of our government."

• Flynn's committee mostly met in secret.

Highlights:

• Straus offered Perry a corrupt bargain and Perry declined.

• Straus sent the Travis County DA after him.

• Sharphorn found "a huge disparity" in admissions notes to prospective students with letters.

• "If indicted, at least I would have a public trial."

• Investigation only moved forward because a whistleblower came forward to Cigarroa.

• Powers is now the highest paid member of UT law school faculty.

• Vote Bryan Slaton.

Highlights:

• The House didn't have the nerve to impeach.

• Impeachment committee tried to bait him into committing crimes.

• "The fact that they didn't indict me is unbelievable."

• McRaven blew off the Kroll Report.

Why doesn't Lamar Smith want to debate?!?

"Can anyone hide himself in secret places,
So I shall not see him?” says the Lord;
“Do I not fill heaven and earth?” says the Lord.?
Jeremiah 23:24

Fascinating tidbit from Matt McCall's campaign update:

Two months ago, I was invited to a debate with Lamar Smith, Michael J. Smith, and John Murphy, the contenders for the Congressional seat for CD 21.  I immediately accepted.  The invitation came from the Kendall County Tea Party Patriots, run by Earl Smith.  The debate is scheduled for November 9.  November 9 was chosen because that week Congress is out of session and Lamar Smith is in the district.
 
Earl Smith informed me that he had been contacting Lamar Smith’s office continually for the last two months, trying to get a response regarding the debate, without success.  Earl was finally able to ask Lamar about it in person at a public forum last Tuesday.  Lamar said it was the first he’d heard about it and that he would get back with Earl by the end of the evening.  He did not.
 
On Wednesday, an invitation went out by email for a private reception at a supporter’s home for Lamar Smith---scheduled for the evening of November 9. 

 Read the whole thing here.

Bottom Line: This wreaks of Dewhurst's 2012 strategy in the U.S. Senate race, perhaps the time has come to break out the duck costume.

Bohener becomes Straus

"He who is often rebuked, and hardens his neck,
Will suddenly be destroyed, and that without remedy."
Proverbs 29:1

Prior to election 2014, the Texas Legislature and the U.S. Congress weren't particularly similar.  Since then, however, legacy Republicans at both levels have deployed an identical playbook.  On that note, where have we heard this before?!?

A new bombshell report from Politico found that House Speaker John Boehner had several days of secret negotiations with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the recently emboldened former Speaker, leading up to his decision to flip-flop and fund President Obama’s executive amnesty—including a pre-hashed out deal to use the hoopla around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Tuesday address to Congress over Iran’s nuclear ambitions as political cover to sneak in the extraordinarily controversial vote. Even with the bombshell report, however, Boehner’s office continues to deny any deal took place.

“It was Monday at 5:30 p.m. when Pelosi and Boehner agreed that it was ‘best to take up the matter on Tuesday immediately after Netanyahu’s address in order to deal with the matter as quickly as possible upon return of the Senate papers,’ according to an aide familiar with the conversations,” Politico’s Lauren French wrote on Thursday evening.

That part of a supposed deal between Pelosi and Boehner came after what French reported were several days of negotiating and dealmaking between the current and former Speaker.

....

“The vote Tuesday is just the latest chapter in a long-running saga between Democrats and Boehner,” French wrote. “The Ohio Republican is often forced to turn to Pelosi to deliver votes when legislation, like government spending bills and increases to the debt limit, fail to garner enough support from Republicans. That gives Pelosi, who has watched her caucus sink into the deepest minority Democrats have experienced in decades, an unusually powerful hand in times of crisis.”

....

Mooney’s not alone in raising the question of just how much rope Boehner has left before he hangs himself with these Democrat deals. Technically, on Tuesday, to pass the bill to fund executive amnesty after spending months saying he wouldn’t, Boehner violated the so-called Hastert Rule yet again. As such, it’s worth revisiting what Denny Hastert—the Boehner predecessor for which the rule is named—said when Boehner first began flirting with using Democrats to achieve his big government agenda.

“Here is the problem. Maybe you can do it once, maybe you can do it twice, but when you start making deals when you have to get Democrats to pass the legislation, you are not in power anymore,” Hastert, who served as House Speaker from Jan. 6, 1999, through Jan. 3, 2007, said in a Fox News interview when Boehner used Democrat votes to pass the fiscal cliff deal through the House in late 2012.

....

Boehner, as of late, has become addicted to using Democratic votes to pass significant pieces of legislation. In his first term as Speaker, he did it once in March 2011 and one more time on the first day of 2013 to pass the fiscal cliff vote. In his second term as Speaker, though, he did it six times, spread out over two years. And now, on the first major consequential vote of his third term as Speaker, he did it again—and notably, this time, there is a Senate Republican Majority. If Boehner keeps doing this, he’s likely to eventually infuriate enough Republican members for an eventual internal conference coup against his speakership.

It gets better:

A number of right-wing Republicans, long wary of Boehner's commitment to GOP efforts attacking President Obama's policy priorities, have openly considered a coup in an attempt to transfer the gavel into more conservative hands.

But Democrats from across an ideological spectrum say they'd rather see Boehner remain atop the House than replace him with a more conservative Speaker who would almost certainly be less willing to reach across the aisle in search of compromise. Replacing him with a Tea Party Speaker, they say, would only bring the legislative process — already limping along — to a screeching halt.

“I'd probably vote for Boehner [because] who the hell is going to replace him? [Ted] Yoho?” Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) said Wednesday, referencing the Florida Tea Party Republican who’s fought Boehner on a host of bipartisan compromise bills.

Bottom Line: The only reason Democrats are part of the discussion in either the Texas or the U.S. House is because 79 and 75 Republicans, respectively, were too callow and feckless (or too corrupt?!?) (or too stupid?!?) to stand with their own voters instead of Marxist Democrats; that's not sustainable.

And don't get us started on how watching McConnell cower before filibusters reminds us of Dewhurst and the old 2/3rds rule.

As we wrote last December:

Election 2014 gave the American people a New Hope; if the Empire chooses to Strike Back in 2015, the Jedi WILL return in 2016.

The 2016 Republican primaries are going to be a bloodbath.

Dewhurst sells apartment to Karl Rove's wife

" While they promise them liberty, they themselves are slaves of corruption; for by whom a person is overcome, by him also he is brought into bondage."
2 Peter 2:19

This is bizarre:

Dewhurst has listed unit 1003, his two-bedroom condo in the Westgate Tower, for more than $1 million. Two high-dollar independent lobbyists — Mindy Ellmer and Sabrina Brown — have joined with Karen Johnson Rove, the wife of political strategist Karl Rove, to purchase the Dewhurst property. Closing is expected next month.

The Westgate offers an ideal address for people who work in state politics, since it is steps from the west entrance of the Capitol. Apparently, some people think it might make a nice spot for wining and dining legislators, too.

Talk of the lobbyists’ plans to use the condo for parties for their clients prompted a letter from Connie Heyer, a lawyer for the condo owners association.

“The board understands that the purpose of the purchase would be to provide a venue for lobby entertaining,” Heyer wrote. “The residents have long expressed the desire to enforce and maintain the residential nature of the residential portion of the building.”

....

The lieutenant governor’s history of making real estate deals with lobbyists extends back to at least 2003, when he sold an Austin mansion to Texas lobbyist and former senator Dan Shelley. Dewhurst told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram at the time that he took a net loss when he sold the property for $1.95 million — $1 million more than he paid for it five years earlier. Dewhurst said he had invested “several hundred thousand” dollars in the house.

Another Dewhurst property also was recently on the market.

The campaign committee of the lieutenant governor took possession of a white-columned estate in Austin’s tony Old Enfield neighborhood earlier this year when Dewhurst reached an agreement with Kenneth “Buddy” Barfield, who the lieutenant governor claimed stole money from his unsuccessful campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2012. The two sides reportedly agreed that Barfield would sign over the property to repay some of the money.

 Read the whole thing here.

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Update: It gets better. Apparently, Mindy Ellmer is Charlie Geren's girlfriend.  Also, she's a taxpayer funded lobbyist whose clients include the Tarrant Regional Water District.

Learn more about the Tarrant Regional Water District here.

Bob Deuell's HILARIOUS, Whiny, Butthurt

"For the turning away of the simple will slay them,
And the complacency of fools will destroy them;"
Proverbs 1:32

Wow:

Outgoing Texas state Sen. Bob Deuell says he’s not angry or bitter. No, but hurt and dismay still register pretty strongly across his face.

In one of the biggest surprises of the political season, the staunchly conservative and widely respected senator was defeated by a virtual newcomer to Texas and politics.

And of all things, Bob Hall did it by branding Deuell a liberal.

“To call me a liberal? It’s just ridiculous,” the Greenville Republican said over lunch in these waning days of his 12 years in office.

....

The disengagement of mainstream conservatives and citizens in general is one of Deuell’s biggest concerns. “I have people talking to me all the time about the next legislative session. I say, ‘But I lost.’ And they say ‘Really? When was the election?’”

Deuell, a 64-year-old family physician, tries to be philosophical about this unplanned change in life. “I have more time to practice medicine, so my income has gone up significantly,” he said.

....

He is troubled, however. “I’m concerned for my district. I’m concerned for my state.”

Knee-jerk, sound-bite conservatism is driving out thoughtful, common-sense conservatism, he said.

A perfect example is needle exchanges for drug addicts. Texas is the only state that won’t pay for them. Deuell repeatedly bucked members of his own party in trying to bring Texas in line with well-proven, life-saving, money-saving public policy.

....

He expects a long, difficult legislative session next year as the new crop of tea party officeholders are caught between their campaign rhetoric and economic reality.

“I think there’s just this angry movement out there,” he said. “The genesis was directed at Washington, which does have a spending problem. But then they turned that anger toward state government. In medicine, we call that displaced anger.”

 Read the whole thing here.

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A few thoughts:

1. We first became aware of Bob Deuell during the debate over the budget last year when we watched Wendy Davis sing his praises; keep in mind, this was a month or so before the filibuster that made her politically radioactive.
2. Deuell filed legislation to expand Obamacare in Texas; credit where it's due (or Dew), Dewhurst killed it.
3. This is the biggest sense of entitlement we've seen from an outgoing legislator since former U.S. Senator Bob Bennett failed to capture re-nomination in Utah.

Dewhurst insults Conservatives

"A false witness will not go unpunished,
And he who speaks lies shall perish."
Proverbs 19:9

This website has kept our powder dry regarding David Dewhurst for some time.  We even stayed neutral in this year's Lt. Gov race.  That being said, during today's Legislative Budget Board hearing, the lame-duck Lt. Governor engaged in a bit of slander that has to be seen to be believed:



Of course, as we're sure the lame duck Lt. Gov is aware, no one has ever accused the 83rd Legislature of making a biennium over biennium (*) spending increase of 26%.  It was always a session over session comparison.  While the difference is technical, it's based on the time frame under consideration.

At best, Dewhurst compared apples to oranges.  We addressed this budgetary sleight of hand last summer.  TPPF has more here.

He cannot leave quickly enough.

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* -- The other reason the biennium over biennium comparison is bogus is that they're openly telegraphing a supplemental appropriations bill for the current biennium early next session.

Wallace Hall Speaks: "Fundamentally, nothing has changed."

"Stand therefore, having girded your waist with truth, having put on the breastplate of righteousness,"
Ephesians 6:14

The Austin Club -- This morning, a dedicated University of Texas regent Wallace Hall spoke to a crowd of approximately 150 people.  Out of realistic jeopardy from Dan Flynn's committee, Hall discussed his investigation into impropriety at the University of Texas - Austin in the greatest detail to date.  His discussion with Texas Tribune editor Evan Smith covered the University's open records process, financial improprieties at the University, and favoritism in admissions.

"I'm very comfortable with my actions" Hall said at the beginning of the discussion.  His allegedly voluminous open records requests were done as part of an effort to improve transparency at the University.  Regent Hall desired to move the open records process to the internet.  As part of that endeavor, Hall made five requests in June 2013 to see what requests the University had received.  The total was 40 boxes of documents.

Hall spoke about financial impropriety at the University, including the $215 million software donation scandal and questionable service contracts: "As a board and an institution we failed to police ourselves."

The longest section was the discussion on admissions favoritism.  Hall explained his belief in an admissions process that treats everyone equally.  He was indignant legislators could secretively gain favored status.  Hall isn't even a fan of legacy admissions "certainly at public universities."  On the other hand, "if we want Senators and Representatives to be able to get people [into higher ed. institutions], lets just be upfront about it."

Hall's strongest words came for Joe Straus and David Dewhurst.  Hall revealed an attempt by Straus to browbeat Governor Perry's staff following the Hardin report while the Governor was out of the country.    Hall "absoluely" lays the blame for the impeachment at Straus' feet.  He also disclosed a threatening text message Dewhurst sent regent Alex Cranberg in early 2013.  SB 15 appeared a few days later.

By contrast, Hall evaluates outgoing UT Chancellor Francisco Cigarroa's tenure "very positively."  He also has "great confidence" in incoming Chancellor William McRaven.  His three criteria for a new UT-Austin President are someone with a leadership history, who has run a multi-billion dollar organization, who isn't from UT Austin.

Wallace Hall's investigation has roiled the status quo, both at UT-Austin and in the Texas Legislature.  Clearly, he has uncovered evidence of financial improprieties and favoritism on behalf of powerful legislators.  Today's conversations with the Texas Tribune was Hall's most detailed discussion to date.

Governor Perry's National Guard Announcement Press Conference

"You shall not remove your neighbor’s landmark, which the men of old have set, in your inheritance which you will inherit in the land that the Lord your God is giving you to possess."
Deuteronomy 19:14

Earlier this afternoon, Governor Perry held a press conference to announce the next step in addressing the border crisis:



Highlights:

• Governor Perry -- The plight of these unaccompanied alien children has captured the national attention
• Still only 20%.
• "I will not stand idly by while our citizens are under assault and little children from Central America are detained in squalor; we are too good a country for that to occur."

• Steve McCraw, Texas DPS -- Troops will be 'seamlessly integrated' into DPS plan
• Designed to deter criminal entry between ports of entry.

• Major Gen. John Nichlols -- Over the next 30 days will mobilize the national guard.
• Force Multiplier for DPS.
• Already helping border patrol.

• Dewhurst -- Who cares what he said?!?

• General Abbott -- This is BOTH a humanitarian and a public safety crisis.
• More that a dozen AG staff already assisting.
• Texans are willing to put the boots on the ground, but we expect Washington to pay the bill.

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Update: Breitbart Texas has more here.

Lame-Duck Special Session: Invitation for Mischief

"A wise man fears and departs from evil,
But a fool rages and is self-confident."
Proverbs 14:16

This morning, we awoke to the following story on Breitbart Texas:

TEXANS PETITION PERRY FOR SPECIAL SESSION ON BORDER CRISIS

HOUSTON, Texas—Activist Texans are petitioning Texas Governor Rick Perry to call a special session of the Legislature to deal with the growing crisis on the Texas border with Mexico. The petition asks Gov. Perry to bring the Texas Legislature back into a forth special session to “develop and fund a border and port security plan utilizing state and local law enforcement.”

....

Over the Father’s Day weekend, many Texans gathered in a Facebook discussion thread to discuss the Texas Border Crisis and look for a solution. A conclusion of the discussion was that if the federal government was not going to secure the border then Texas can and should take the steps necessary to accomplish this task. The crisis came to a head earlier this month when Breitbart Texas released shocking photos depicting the deplorable living conditions of the recent surge in unaccompanied minors who are entering the country illegally in ever increasing numbers.

The idea grew out of a discussion involving a large number of people discussing the issue on Facebook. A spokesperson for the petition, Terri Hill, told Breitbart Texas that State Representative Debbie Riddle (R-Tomball) joined in the conversation and said she has been working with the director of the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS), Colonel Steve McCraw, to determine the cost of a sustained border security operation manned by Texas resources. Col. McCraw assured Riddle that Texas is capable of accomplishing the task of securing the border and executing the plan to achieve real results.

The cost is estimated to be approximately $1.3 million per week to secure the border ($67.8 million per year). The task now becomes, how to get the $67.8 million appropriated and put Col. McCraw and the Texas DPS to work. “I asked if a petition would help get the word out,” Hill said, “and help alert citizens to the severity of the matter and it was decided it would certainly be worth a shot.”

....

“Utilizing an online petition generator site,” Hill continued, “I created an account, entered our petition, made sure I included all the required information Representative Riddle said was necessary and we went live with it by 6:30 pm on Saturday evening.” The petition, Request for Immediate Texas Border Control, can be found online now. The petition states, "We, the undersigned, because the federal government has failed to act, call on the Texas Legislature to develop and fund a border and port of entry security plan utilizing state and local law enforcement."

A panic-stricken lame duck special session is a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad idea.

In 2013, the 83rd Texas Legislature went on a wild spending spree.  It took them multiple special sessions to pass a pro-life law that should have sailed through during the general.  And people want to bring these clowns back into town?!?

While it's true that Governor Perry controls the agenda for any special session, it's also true that the legislators will be the ones actually writing the laws.  Does anyone think they won't abuse some vaguely defined charge like "border security" or "addressing the crisis on our border"?!?  Anyone?!?

Earlier this spring, we attended an interim Senate hearing that included a discussion about state-level border security efforts, as we wrote at the time:

In other words, you have a bunch of state and federal agencies with different sources of funding and accountable to no one not talking to each other and accomplishing nothing.

If we hastily pass poorly conceived legislation in a lame duck special session, it could make that problem MUCH worse.

In 2001/2, following 9/11, the Federal Government responded to panic stricken public demands to "do something" about terrorism.  The result was the TSA, the Patriot Act, and the Department of Homeland Security.  Do we really want to repeat this mistake on the Texas Border?!?

Furthermore, which Lt. Governor do you want to address this issue: Dan Patrick or David Dewhurst?!?

Nobody denies that the situation on our border is both a catastrophe and an outrage.  No one denies that the situation has deteriorated significantly in recent months.  But a lame duck special session isn't the appropriate mechanism to address it.  At best, a lame duck special session will add more bureaucracy to a system that already has too much of it.  If you're serious about border security, focus on electing Dan Patrick this fall, then address the issue calmly and rationally in the spring.

Never forget: The Margins Tax came out of a lame-duck special session....

Texas Republican Runoff 2014: Rick Perry wins, Bill Powers loses

Bread gained by deceit is sweet to a man,
But afterward his mouth will be filled with gravel.
Proverbs 20:17

The 2014 Texas Republican Runoff was a referendum on higher education: Rick Perry (and Wallace Hall) won.

David Dewhurst and Dan Branch both abused their office on behalf of the University of Texas administration; both lost.

Three years ago, Rick Perry appointed 'Kick-ass regent' Wallace Hall to clean up the University of Texas.  Wallace Hall then discovered a $215 million accounting scandal.  Dan Branch and David Dewhurst abetted the University of Texas' attempt to cover Bill Powers' rear end.

But who cares, Rick Perry's allies won!!!

Last week, in an interview with this website, Texas Republican Attorney General nominee Ken Paxton vowed: "I'll do whatever I can with the laws that are available to me to make sure that there is transparency at the University of Texas and anywhere in government."  Tonight the voters endorsed Ken's position.

 Dan Patrick raised similar issues and won a similar victory.

 The University of Texas is the biggest special interest in this state.  It made a multimillion dollar bet on David Dewhurst, Joe Straus, and Dan Branch that has failed.  This website applauds 2014 Texas Republican Attorney General candidate Ken Paxton (and Lite Guv candidate Dan Patrick) for ratifying Governor Perry's position.

History Lesson: Dan Branch gets mopey for Bill Powers

He delivered me from my strong enemy,
From those who hated me,
For they were too strong for me.
Psalm 18:17

Gross:

Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, was less emotional than Dewhurst, but still sang Powers’ praises saying he has “been an outstanding president of the University of Texas.”

“He stands at the lead of so many of those great university leaders,” said Branch, who authored a resolution to honor Powers.

Powers was being recognized as a co-winner of the John G. Fleming Memorial Prize for Torts Scholarship and his nomination to the vice chairmanship of the Association of American Universities, an association of 62 public and private research universities in the U.S. and Canada.

At least he got his 30 pieces of silver free football tickets.

To eliminate Joe Straus (and Bill Powers), first bury Dan Branch

"Do not fret because of evildoers,
Nor be envious of the workers of iniquity.
For they shall soon be cut down like the grass,"
Psalm 37:1-2

Following the buzz our Scott Turner piece generated last week, a friend asked what they could do to help.  The speaker's race won't heat up until late summer.  In the meantime, one runoff stands out:

Bury Dan Branch by a wide margin.

Dan Branch is the highest profile Straus lieutenant in a runoff.  Branch was one of Straus' original band of RINO backstabbers; he's currently Straus' handpicked higher-ed committee chairman.  Joe Straus can't use the restroom unless Dan Branch provides a reach-around shake.

When electing a Texas House Speaker, remember that the electorate is the members.  In a speaker's race, only 150 votes matter.  Those 150 members will vote their political interest (as they see it).

For those members to turn on Straus, they need to see support for Straus as more harmful than the money Straus brings to the table.  The March primary sent that lesson.  The May runoff needs to re-enforce it.

In 2012, Ted Cruz beat Dewhurst with 56% in the runoff; when Ken Paxton beats Branch with 57% (or higher), the direction of movement will become undeniable.

Scott Turner will be a great Speaker, but he's still an underdog.  For Scott to win, the members need to fear the Tea Party more than they covet Straus' blood money.  The next step in that process is to make an example out of Dan Branch.

Stickland channels Cruz

Hurst, TX -- In front of a packed house of 400 people, tonight's HD-92 debate between conservative incumbent Jonathan Stickland and educational bureaucrat Andy Cargile was a one-sided affair similar to the 2012 U.S. Senate race.

Stickland delivered a crisp and energetic performance worthy of Ted Cruz.  Speaking without notes or prepared remarks, Stickland explained how he went to Austin to fight the liberal agenda and "I did exactly what I said I'd do."  It was obvious why the business as usual crowd in Austin hates his guts.

Playing Dewhurst to Stickland's Ted Cruz was the befuddled, ill-prepared, and poorly-informed Andy Cargile.  Cargile opened the debate by drawing a bizarre comparison between Stickland and Barack Obama: "when you get a lot of words and no action, you get Barack Obama."  Cargile's statement ignores the fact that from Obamacare to an illegal and unconstitutional War in Libya to countless other examples, Obama has delivered plenty of action (none of it good).

Cargile's strangest moment in the debate was his assertion, during the discussion of immigration, that there are no sanctuary cities in Texas.  Stickland politely reminded Cargile that both Austin and Lewisville are sanctuary cities (he didn't mention Houston).  That Cargile didn't know such a basic fact speaks volumes.

The most telling contrast was each's description of his view of his role as a legislator.  Cargile called a seat in the Texas House "the next step" in his career.  Speaking second, Stickland pounced: "I don't define myself by my position" as a member of the legislature.

Another illuminating moment was the discussion about a more rational policy towards low-level marijuana offenses.  Cargile embraced prohibition with a Joe Biden-esque level of zeal.  Cargile attacked Stickland for voting against a bill last session that would ban so-called "synthetic" Marijuana.  In his well-informed response, Stickland rejected the premise of the legislation and simultaneously explained that the legislation in question would have criminalized a plant that grows naturally on the grounds of the Texas capitol.

Tonight's debate wasn't close.  Stickland delivered a sharp performance similar to Ted Cruz.  Cargile was fumbling at best.  By the end, a quarter of Cargile's supporters were quietly applauding Stickland.  If this was a Little League game, they would have invoked the mercy rule after ten minutes.

Pete Sessions repeats Dewhurst's mistake

You know it's primary season in Texas by the lame personal attacks on Katrina Pierson:

In 1997, five days before her 21st birthday, Katrina Pierson, then named Katrina Lanette Shaddix, was arrested on a charge of theft of greater than $50 and less than $500.

Pierson, who is running against Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions in the March 4 Republican primary, acknowledges the mistake. She told police then, and repeated recently, that she was talked into shoplifting by a friend.

“Like an idiot, I went along for the ride,” Pierson said in a recent interview.

She and the other woman were accused of trying to lift nine pieces of women’s clothing from a J.C. Penney store in Plano. They stuffed the clothes into shoe boxes in a clumsy, failed heist.

According to a Plano police report, Pierson said she and the woman with her, Laura Elizabeth Nelson, told police they needed the clothes for jobs they were trying to obtain.

Yawn, although (ironically) a lame personal attack on Katrina helped sink David Dewhurst's 2012 campaign:

A conservative activist from Garland who appeared in GOP Senate hopeful Ted Cruz’s first TV spot called a decorated, wounded military veteran “deformed” in a comment on Twitter on Saturday.

Katrina Pierson also protested that Cruz rival David Dewhurst was exploiting medically retired Marine Capt. Daniel P. “Dan” Moran of Cypress, by featuring him in the lieutenant governor’s introductory video at the state Republican convention in Fort Worth.

....

She said, though, that her grandfather, an Army combat veteran of the Korean war, told her that “any time they use vets in a political situation like that, it was very hurtful.” She said she doesn’t back down from opining that Dewhurst’s video was “in real poor taste.” And Pierson noted that Moran was appointed to the Veterans Commission by Gov. Rick Perry, which required Senate confirmation. Dewhurst presides over the Senate.

Substitute the name Sessions for Dewhurst and Adrian Murray's response from 2012 remains apt:

Is this amateur hour in the Dewhurst campaign bunker?

If Pete Sessions 2014 is determined to repeat Dewhurst's 2012 campaign, at least we'll know for sure if Katrina is a secret red Chinese tire manufacturer....

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Read our endorsement of Katrina here; donate to hear campaign here.

Dan Patrick's Democrat Chairman Sideshow

The other night, at a Lt. Gov. candidate forum in Houston, Dan Patrick attacked David Dewhurst over his committee appointments:

Patrick claimed that Democrats have been allowed to block legislation on sanctuary cities and school choice, largely because Dewhurst has given them too much power.

"I will not appoint half of the Democrats as chairman of committees," he said.

Cahnman's Musings agrees that Dewhurst's committee appointments suck.  The problem, however, is NOT the Democrats.  It's the Republicans.

Dewhurst always appoints go-along, get-along, big government Republicans to powerful committees.

Senate Finance Chair Tommy Williams is the most obvious example.

During 83rd general session, absent leadership from the Lt. Governor, Tommy Williams ran the Texas Senate by default; the results were predictably disastrous.

Cahnman's Musings applauds Dan Patrick for questioning Dewhurst's committee appointments; Patrick's criticisms, however, would be stronger if he went after powerful Republicans like Tommy Williams instead of irrelevant Democrats.