Would Joe Straus really switch parties and run against Abbott?!?

"He who is often rebuked, and hardens his neck,
Will suddenly be destroyed, and that without remedy."
Proverbs 29:1

[Update: See more here.]

This morning, Michael Quinn Sullivan posted a Facebook video where he speculated about Joe Straus switching parties and running for Governor against Greg Abbott as a Democrat:



[Note: Sullivan's video is a half hour long, so we're not going to post a bullet point list of highlights, but we suggest you watch the whole thing yourself.]

About an hour ago, we sat down to write a blog post arguing why this would never happen.  But the more we think about it, the less sure we become.  Let's put it this way: Probably not (and certainly not if he has any sense)...but Joe Straus is so dadgum arrogant that we can't put it past him.

With all due respect to Michael Quinn Sullivan, he wasn't in that room on Saturday.  This author was.  And we think Straus is running for another term as speaker.

Start with the fact that that's what Straus said he was doing on Saturday.  Furthermore, in response to our own question on Saturday, Straus went to extended lengths to remind this author of the fact that he won house district 121 by 32 points in 2016.  As it relates to the question about running for Governor, while it's absolutely true that Straus didn't shut the door, as someone who was in the room we must point out that that question was asked in the context of a) an eventual open seat whenever Abbott retires and b) running as a Republican.

It doesn't take a genius to see how Straus comes back.  It's the same playbook they've used the past few cycles.  Your most toxic incumbents [eg. Byron Cook, Dan Flynn, and Dan Huberty] retire.  You have the local chamber recruit some faceless hack with low self-esteem to run in the open seat [eg. John Wray, Ernest Bailes].  Then you combine the fact that the new guy doesn't have a record with a significant spending advantage, and you hold on to enough open seats that the basic outlines of your coalition remain intact.  Like we said, that's what they've done the past few cycles.

We're not convinced the caucus is done with Straus.  We'd love that to be the case, but we've gotten burned predicting that in the past.  Arguing "this time is different" remains perilous.

If you're Joe Straus, and you're smart, your goal is to stop major conservative priories from being enacted.  If that's your goal, then you've actually been pretty successful the last few years.  Why mess with what, from your perspective, seems to be working?!?

Then there's the fact that running against Abbott would be a suicide mission for Straus.  Joe Straus might face an uncertain future with the house republican caucus, but no Democrat is getting elected statewide anytime soon.  Joe Straus has to know this...right?!?

If Straus switches parties to run against Abbott, such a move would instantly turn the race into a national story.  And if Straus turns this race into a major national story, he turns the fact that the Texas house has been run by liberals for the past decade into a major national story.  And if Straus turns the leadership style of the Texas house into a major national story, when Straus inevitably loses the jig will finally be up.

So that's why we think Straus won't switch parties.  That's certainly why he shouldn't if he has any sense.  But, that being said, we can't eliminate the possibility that Joe Straus is so arrogant that he gets seduced into running.

Here's how the narrative would work: Blah, blah bathroom bill.  Blah, blah economy.  Never mind the fact that nothing of the sort happened in either Houston or North Carolina.

Of course, if Joe Straus were to attempt to portray himself as some sort of savior for the state's economy, the next point to raise is obvious: Joe Straus is the primary reason why the Texas Legislature failed to address property taxes last session.  During both the regular session and the special session, the Senate passed bills that were tangible steps in the right direction, and both times the house refused to negotiate in good faith before the house watered them down into meaninglessness.  Good luck running a campaign based upon "the economy" with your pro-high property taxes record.

Bottom Line: If he has any sense, Straus isn't running; but if he's arrogant enough to try then, to paraphrase Dirty Harry, he's welcome to make our day.

"While You're in Town": An Open Letter to Franklin Graham

"Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord,
But a just weight is His delight."
Proverbs 11:1

[Author's Note: If readers are so inclined, they can tweet this post to @Franklin_Graham.]

Dear Reverend Graham,

Welcome to Austin.  I'm a blogger here in town.  My most famous piece of work came in 2013, when I released video of pro-Abortion protesters at the Capitol chanting "Hail Satan."

I'm writing to discuss a frequently overlooked issue on which the Church can be salt and light in the political arena.  Furthermore, salt and light on this issue will disproportionately cleanse the rot at the heart of our political system.  I'm talking about financial righteousness and unwavering opposition to the wicked, unbiblical, practice of economic protectionism.

It doesn't take a genius to see that big business is not our friend.  You live in North Carolina, so you're probably following the corporate bullying closer than me.  Here in Texas, the corrupt merchants at the Texas Association of Business have launched a similar economically fraudulent campaign against religious liberty.  Big business is carrying water for the big government social agenda.  But the solution isn't boycotts.  The solution is competition.  That's why the Church in America needs to support policies and ministries that encourage entrepreneurship and startup culture.

There is a a strong Biblical case for what I propose.  A major theme of Proverbs is the condemnation of unjust accumulation and praise for honest industry.  Whenever a corporation jacks a regulation in its favor or gets a bailout, that's an unjust weight and measure.  The riot at Ephesus was about Economic Protectionism.  For every Bible verse about sex, there are approximately ten about money.

Obviously, the Bible discusses debt and taxes at length.  America is rapidly becoming enslaved to our lenders, and this includes our state and local governments.  Every penny of debt we allow Caesar to impose strengthens this wicked system.  Here in Austin, we've defeated three bonds in the last three years.  While Jesus commands us to pay taxes, He also commands tax collectors to not abuse citizens.  High taxes also played an important role in splitting the ancient kingdom.  Legally cutting off Caesar's lifeblood, from our local communities on up, will pay dividends on numerous other issues.

Here in Austin, we have an example of this approach's success.  One of our local city council members, Don Zimmerman, is a strong Christian who originally developed a reputation as a champion for taxpayers.  His opponent was president of the local gay and lesbian chamber of commerce.  Obviously, the gay and lesbian part demonstrates his support for that agenda.  But, due to the Chamber of Commerce part, he was also on record supporting unpopular "economic development" subsidies for Apple.  Don's opposition to that Apple deal helped get him across the finish line in a very close race.  You read that right: opposition to special interest tax-subsidies helped defeat the rainbow flag!

I do not propose this course of action instead of focusing on the issues in which we are now engaged.  What I'm saying is that a commitment to financial righteousness and opposition to economic protectionism will weaken the forces of the status quo.  Weakening this wicked status quo will give us the space we need to successfully pursue our agenda on life, marriage, and religious liberty.  With every tax abatement, every jacked up regulation, and every subsidy this wicked status quo gains strength.  Every penny of government spending we cut, and restriction upon economic liberty we repeal, weakens it.  Economic protectionism is the unguarded underbelly of the status quo, and there's a strong Biblical case for going after it.  As you travel the country and encourage Christians to engage the political process, I ask you to keep this issue in mind.

Sincerely,
Adam Cahn
Austin, TX
April 26, 2016

Texas GOP History: When John Cornyn Replaced Phil Gramm

Cahnman's Musings just had an epiphany about when the GOP descended from the (relatively) principles-based party of the 1980's and 90's to the rudderless mess it is today.  We think it came during the midterm election of 2002.  In Texas, that was the year John Cornyn replaced Phil Gramm.

(Author's note: 2002 was also the year Bob Dole's wife replaced Reaganite Jesse Helms in North Carolina.)

First elected to the United States Senate in 1984 (following three colorful (party switching) terms in the U.S. House), Phil Gramm was a key Congressional Lieutenant for President Reagan.  Over his quarter century career, Phil Gramm helped launch and maintain the quarter century Reagan boom.  In 2002, he retired from public service.

John Cornyn, by contrast, was a close confidant of Karl Rove.  Rove helped launch Cornyn's career in the 1990's.  Over his decade in Congress, John Cornyn's record speaks for itself.

The mess in today's Republican party has many origins, but replacing a principled Reganite like Phil Gramm with a Rovian jellyfish like John Cornyn explains a lot.

BOOK REVIEW: "Just as I Am" by Billy Graham

"The Lord liveth, and blessed be my rock; and exalted be the God of the rock of my salvation." 2 Samuel 22:47

"Follow me, and I will make you fishers of men." Matthew 4:19

"Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, which according to his abundant mercy have begotten us again unto a living hope by the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead." 1 Peter 1:3

Billy Graham is probably the most important Preacher of the past 100 years.  Dr. Graham's ministry saved more souls, and had more earthly influence, than any concurrent ministry.  Just as I Am is a joyous recounting of the first fifty years of Dr. Graham's ministry.

With a ministry as blessed as Dr. Graham's, it is impossible to convey everything in a seven paragraph review.  Dr. Graham grew up on a farm in Depression-era North Carolina. While Dr. Graham grew up in a strong family, he had plenty of exposure to Earthly pleasures during his teenage years (17). While Dr. Graham is known as a godly and humble man today, he did not lack for knowledge or opportunities as a young man.

The book goes on to discuss Dr Graham's salvation and early ministry. Discussions of statistics cannot convey how every person who attended or came forward at one of Dr. Graham's crusades was an individual. Ministering to tens (sometimes hundreds) of thousands of people as individuals is a massive logistical undertaking; one of the biggest challenges was plugging thousands of new believers into local churches. Consistent, worldwide Church outreach on the scale of Dr. Graham's was unprecedented in Christian history (and they did it BEFORE the internet!). By remaining meek and poor in spirit, the Lord consistently worked out details.

Prayerful humility before the Lord is a major theme of the book. Billy Graham never takes credit for the success of his ministry, he understands that he was just the conduit through which God acted. The Lord gave Billy Graham a big mission, Billy Graham was obedient, and the Lord was faithful. As Graham writes:

With each new crusade experience, I was increasingly driven to the conclusion that it was not a fluke. Instead, it was the Lord letting us in on a special moving of the Holy Spirit in America [and later worldwide]. (174)

To me, the most interesting aspect of Dr. Graham's was the work that the Lord had him do in Communist countries. Beginning with a crusade in Hungary in 1977, Dr. Graham worked extensively behind the Iron Curtain during the decade before the Berlin Wall fell.  He even met with members of the politburo in Moscow (506).  Another fascinating encounter were his two meetings with Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang (625), which was actually the city where his wife went to high school (71).  These are just a few examples.

Dr. Graham was an early and unshakeable supporter of civil rights.  He refused to speak to segregated audiences, which was a big deal in pre-Jim Crow South (650).  He was also good friends with Martin Luther King Jr (314).  Dr. Graham promoted racial healing at a time when doing so was a genuine risk.  Dr. Graham's courage on racial matters deserves praise and recognition.

At its core, however, any discussion about Billy Graham is about the Gospel: God Loves You and He gave His only Son to help you, but it's up to You to accept His gift.  That's the message Billy Graham carried to over 185 countries.  That message remains as relevant as always.  But it's up to each of us, as individuals, to heed the call:

You can learn more about the current efforts of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association here.

Why Obama Just Can't Win -- Chaos at Democrat County Conventions in North Carolina

A few weeks ago, I wrote about How Obama Just Can't Win; North Carolina plays a key role in that analysis.

This morning, a source in Texas pointed out this story to me.  It reveals utter chaos in the North Carolina Democrat Party and it's worth quoting at length:

The executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party resigned Sunday amid increasing frustrations and ire among party activists over high turnover at the party headquarters and harassment allegations there.... 

The dustup following the [sexual harassment] emails led party activists meeting at county party conventions Saturday to call for the resignations of Parmley and party Chairman David Parker....  

Parmley's departure is the latest setback for a state party that has been coming to terms with Republicans controlling the state House and Senate for the first time in 140 years. Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue surprised many in January by announcing she wouldn't seek re-election, forcing other Democrats to scramble to mount primary campaigns. Six Democrats are running in the May 8 primary.... 

The Democratic National Convention will be held in Charlotte in less than five months.

Ouch.  This is disastrous for Democrats in North Carolina.  Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we find out about much bigger financial shenanigans down the road.