Thursday, July 3, 2014

Throwing Cold Water on "Turn Texas Blue"

"when a prophet speaks in the name of the Lord, if the thing does not happen or come to pass, that is the thing which the Lord has not spoken; the prophet has spoken it presumptuously; you shall not be afraid of him."
Deuteronomy 18:22

Kudos to WaPo for digging into county election returns over the past 15 years:
Immigration isn’t turning Texas blue as quickly as you might expect


More importantly, though, there doesn't appear to be any correlation to a county becoming more Hispanic and it voting more heavily Democratic. A graph of the two just looks like a swarm of bees, a big cluster showing no pattern whatsoever


Translating that shift bluntly: white Texans will probably die before Hispanic ones, even as more Hispanics -- a younger population -- reach voting age. Which would mean a higher population of Hispanic voters and, going back to the first two graphs, more votes for Democrats.

Or maybe not. A Gallup survey found that Texas Hispanics tended to be more conservative than the population nationally, further complicating the picture.

All we can do is look at how the state evolves over time. Over the past 10 years, the population shift was subtle and the voting change barely noticeable. In 2000, Al Gore won 24 of the state's counties. In 2012, Obama did better. He won 25.
 Read the whole thing, with charts and an explanation of methodology, here.

#HAILSATANTX should fix all that....

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