Monday, September 3, 2018

John Carter will probably survive this year (but he's still a putz who DESPERATELY needs a Primary)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The Trib has an interesting write up about the allegedly closer-than-expected race in CD-31.  The race features an eight term incumbent Williamson County RINO against a Democrat who's an Afghanistan veteran with a compelling life story.  In a midterm year, the underlying partisanship of the district will probably hold.  But anyone who doesn't see a liability emerging for a Presidential year is FOOLING themselves.

The Trib explains:
Amid all of this money, Texas Republican operatives interviewed for this story expressed fear that [John Carter's opponent] poses an existential threat to Carter's political career and that he's not adequately prepared organizationally or financially.


There are a few reasons some in GOP circles fear a perfect storm is brewing against Carter. Perhaps the one quietly discussed the most is that the mechanics, fundraising and tactics of modern campaigning have changed dramatically since his first successful run more than 15 years ago and he hasn't kept up.
BINGO; John Carter is an aloof putz.

The phrase "out of touch" has become a political cliche.  But it still applies in certain circumstances.  Carter looks like one of those circumstances.

In the viral video that made her campaign politically viable, John Carter's opponent explained her reason for running.  Several years ago, she sought a meeting with Carter to discuss expanding opportunities for women in combat.  Carter's office refused to meet with her because she wasn't a campaign donor.

Say whatever you want about the wisdom of putting women in combat but, regardless, JOHN CARTER'S BEHAVIOR IS INDEFENSIBLE.  He should have, at least, taken the meeting and politely listened.  He couldn't manage that.

It's the type of unforced error that only an eight-term incumbent, who's grown waaaaay to comfortable in the swamp, could make.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.


What's happening right now in CD-31 is very similar to what we feared could have happened in CD-21 if Lamar Smith had tried to run for re-election.

The Democrat candidate in that race is also a veteran.  Had Lamar been the Republican nominee, it would have set up a spry veteran vs. aloof incumbent.  A year ago, we were very worried that Lamar could get caught napping.

Fortunately, Lamar had the good sense to not run.  With Chip Roy as the nominee, the GOP is expected to hold CD-21 comfortably.  This is a lesson Williamson and Bell counties would do well to heed next cycle.

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.


Then there's this:
In touting his support for a border wall, Carter playfully joked about building a second wall, a political one between Williamson County and its more liberal neighbor, Travis County.

“It’s time to build that wall," Carter said. "If you don’t want people from Austin, liberals like the folks who most of us moved up here to get away from, if you don’t want them running ... you gotta wake up with this election."
In other words: While your opponent is talking about how you won't meet with anyone who isn't a campaign donor, your response is cheap, lazy, Austin-bashing?!?

Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.


Bottom Line: Anyone who doesn't see an emerging liability is fooling themselves.

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