Monday, October 8, 2018

Carter is probably safe (for the midterm)

"Because of the transgression of a land, many are its princes;
But by a man of understanding and knowledge
Right will be prolonged."
Proverbs 28:2

The New York Times (of all places) just released a poll on the closer than expected Congressional race in Williamson county:

Carter looks likely to survive this year.  But these numbers are still soft.  And there's other polling that suggests the race is much closer.

As we've discussed previously, anyone who doesn't see a gigantic liability in a Presidential year is fooling themselves.

The geographic vote distribution tells the story. Round Rock and Cedar Park are bad.  Georgetown is still red, though not as red as it used to be.  Bell County looks solid (but it's not the major population center).

Bottom Line: Carter's number's are fine for this year.  In a Presidential year, however, we're spooked.  Consider yourselves warned.

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