Wednesday, October 31, 2018

How many Democrats are voting for Abbott?!?

"And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free."
John 8:32

It's been noted throughout this cycle that Abbott's polling numbers have been consistently better than Cruz's.

RCP average for both:

Obviously, a lot has been written about Republicans crossing over for Bobby Francis.  In whatever "x" percentage they might be, those people do exist.  But we suspect they're only part of the story.

The only way these numbers make sense is if there are also a significant number of Democrats voting for Abbott.  Abbott's numbers are too high to explain any other way.  What else makes sense?!?

Case in point: Yesterday the Dallas CBS affiliate released a poll that had Cruz up by 10...and Abbott up by 26.  Cruz's +10 is fairly normal for a Republican in a statewide race.  Indeed, the rest of the Republican ticket had numbers within a similar range as Cruz.  But there's no way Abbott gets to +26 without significant cross-party support.

Bottom Line: There's a chance Cruz underperforms the rest of the Republican ticket, but there's an equal or greater chance that Abbott overperforms it.

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