Thursday, October 22, 2020

#TXSEN: Cornyn, meanwhile, WHINES about swear words


"The wise shall inherit glory,
But shame shall be the legacy of fools."
Proverbs 3:35

LOL:

What a...ducking...gimp.

Does John Cornyn actually think anyone cares?!?

Cuz' they don't.

This is nothing new. When Hegar first entered this race, Cornyn's first attack was over modestly PG-13 level language. We addressed the lameness of that strategy at the time. There's nothing we can add today to what we've already said.

Bottom Line:  Cornyn's almost certainly fine.  Hegar's positions on the issues assure that.  Nevertheless, for Cornyn to castigate his opponent for having a personality highlights his own lack thereof.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

#TXSEN: Big, late, outside money for Hegar


"For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life."
Galatians 6:8

Interesting:
A little-known Democratic super PAC backed by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest donors is quietly unleashing a torrent of television spending in the final weeks of the presidential campaign in a last-minute attempt to oust President Donald Trump, Recode has learned.

The barrage of late money — which includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz — figures among one of the most expensive and aggressive plays yet by tech billionaires, who have spent years studying how to maximize the return they get from each additional dollar they spend on politics. Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that.

The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned.

....

The group is also not limiting its ambitions to the presidential race. In a “confidential” four-page memo circulated to major donors last week and obtained by Recode, Future Forward and four other Democratic outside groups — Senate Majority PAC, the Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap — planned $28 million in advertising to boost MJ Hegar, the Democrat challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn in an uphill race. $10 million of that money was expected to come from a Senate Majority PAC, according to the memo, while another $18 million needed to be raised as of last week for the groups to pull the trigger.

Since that memo, Senate Majority PAC announced an $8.6 million campaign — it made no mention of the rest of the big-donor cavalry joining them. The memo stated that Future Forward was raising the rest to implement the home run play, which began with a buy worth a few million dollars in the state on Tuesday.

“Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week,” the groups wrote to donors last week. “We can push the odds of victory up significantly—from 23% to 35-55%—by blitzing the airwaves in the final two weeks.”
We're of two minds about this:
  • Political consultants are separating arrogant billionaires from their money.
    • Note: This is the likely explanation.
** OR **
  • They know something the rest of us don't.
    • Note: Probably not, but we can't know for sure.
Here's the thing: Where was this effort three months ago?!?

It's not a secret that this website has had nicer things to say about M.J. Hegar than most memebers of her party. She's a good candidate. She's always had...at least a shot.

That being said, up to this point, her effort has seemed lacking.

Whatever you want to say about Bobby Francis O'Rourke, he executed the basic blocking and tackling of campaigns really well. He showed up in lots of places. His field operation was formidable.

Has M.J. Hegar done any of those things?!?

Obviously, her people would argue that she couldn't because of COVID. That's fine. Up to a point. But what was she doing all of last year before COVID hit?!?

Instead, now, a bunch of big money out of state types are going to bankroll saturation level TV advertising?!? Maybe that'll work. But it has a certain Michael Bloomberg feel to it.

They do realize we're a week and a half into early voting...right?!?

On the other hand, maybe they know something we don't.

If not, must be nice to be those political consultants.

Bottom Line: We'll see what happens, but mostly this just seems odd.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Huh?!?


"As a dog returns to his own vomit,
So a fool repeats his folly."
Proverbs 26:11

Umm...ok:


How...strange.

We will confess a certain degree of mixed feelings. Texas politics in general, and the Texas legislature specifically, is ripe for Seinfeld style satire. Done properly, it's potentially brilliant. Heaven knows, we already privately refer to a certain legislator as Kenny Bania.

But let's not kid ourselves: It won't be done properly. And this isn't about ridiculing the legislature. This is about Democrats trying to create buzz through Hollywood because they don't have anything substantive to say.

In that vein, it's completely tone deaf.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Seinfeld has a certain...geographic appeal. And the "geographic appeal" in question is certainly not Texas. While it's certainly the case that this author is a fan of the location in question, we're not exactly turning to them for political advice.

Put differently: Do you think anyone in New York City would care about what Hank Hill thinks?!?

Speaking of Hank Hill, it wouldn't have even been that difficult to do something similar with a Texas theme. King of the Hill. Matthew McConaughey. Heck, Bobby Francis O'Rourke did actual campaign events with Willie Nelson.

But, instead, Texas Democrats are going with George and Elaine from Seinfeld.

OK.

Bottom Line: We'll see how much it ultimately matters, but it's certainly a missed opportunity.

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Roy's condemnation of Paxton certainly seems significant


"He who covers his sins will not prosper,
But whoever confesses and forsakes them will have mercy."
Proverbs 28:13

[Note: We'll be travelling out state for the next several days, publication will resume next week...probably.]

Hoo boy:
For the good of the people of Texas and the extraordinary public servants who serve at the Office of the Attorney General, Attorney General Ken Paxton must resign.

The allegations of bribery, abuse of office, and other charges levied against him by at least 7 senior leaders of the Office of the Attorney General are more than troubling on the merits. But, any grace for him to resolve differences and demonstrate if the allegations are false was eliminated by his choice instead to attack the very people entrusted, by him, to lead the office – some of whom I know well and whose character are beyond reproach.

The work of the Office of the Attorney General of Texas is too critical to the state and her people to leave in chaos and to risk the work of over 700 lawyers managing almost 30,000 legal cases at any given moment, including major cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, as well as processing over $4 Billion in Child Support.

The Attorney General deserves his days in court, but the people of Texas deserve a fully functioning AG’s office.

[Note: Emphasis added.]
Notice that line: "[Paxton's] choice instead to attack the very people entrusted, by him, to lead the office – some of whom I know well and whose character are beyond reproach."

Given Chip Roy's background in the AG's office, this almost certainly means that Roy spoke to all parties involved and decided the accusers are more credible than Paxton. We don't know that for a fact. But consider it a strong educated guess.

Regardless, this ain't good.

Bottom Line: Buckle up....

Monday, October 5, 2020

Paxton rapidly running out of time to address the allegations


"In You, O Lord, I put my trust;
Let me never be ashamed;
Deliver me in Your righteousness."
Psalm 31:1

Obviously, all sorts of accusations surfaced about Ken Paxton over the weekend.

There's a lot we'd like to say. But we can't. Suffice to say, we're talking about the same FBI as the one that gave us Peter Strzok and Lisa Page.

Be that as it may, one thing is obvious: The ship is about to sail on Paxton politically.

He needs to openly and publicly address these allegations. Ideally today. Certainly, no later than tomorrow.

Furthermore, for his own sake, he really ought to do so through media outlets that have traditionally been hostile (ie. the DMN or the Trib).

But this slow drip is killing him.

Bottom Line: Perceptions aren't set yet, but they are well into the process of hardening.

Friday, October 2, 2020

Revising and Extending Our Remarks on King Abbott's latest "proclamation"


"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

We may have jumped the gun a bit yesterday, PushJunction explains:
GREG ABBOTT did a thing yesterday that's being misrepresented in the media. Following the July run-off election, Abbott issued a proclamation expanding early voting for the November election.

In addition to expanding the early voting period, Abbott allowed for mail-in ballots to be returned in person on more than one day as permitted by law. Terrible negotiating with himself while Democrats sued and abused almost every election law on the books.

This isn’t the first time Abbott’s been a punching bag on the topic of election integrity.

During the legislative session, he threw a massive bone to Democrats by agreeing to a sweetheart settlement, stopping list maintenance activities kicked off by his then-Secretary of State.

The apparent deal, settlement for the late-session confirmation of a loyal employee, was spiked by Democrats.

The same thing happened here. Abbott gave election administrators an inch by allowing mail ballots to be turned in on more than one day, and lead by Chris Hollins and Dana DeBeauvoir, they took a mile by ballooning the number of drop sites.

Abbott returned a modicum of order yesterday. Now he needs to stop other illegal election activities to prevent them from being used in the future.
To the degree to which we drew an incorrect conclusion about the legality of this move, we apologize.

However, a couple points:
  • Given the way Abbott has acted in recent months, it's hard to avoid drawing any other conclusion.  After he's accused of behaving in a lawless manner, it's easy to assume the worst.  Abbott doesn't exactly have a lot of benefit of the doubt left on this topic.
  • That being said, why permit the single drop off location.  If Abbott is concluding, apparently correctly, that state law doesn't give county election administrators this authority...why is he allowing them to do it at all?!?  The policy is incoherent.
Bottom Line:  We suppose yesterday's announcement is a move in the right direction, but for the counternarrative to take hold so easily illustrates Abbott's squandered credibility.

Thursday, October 1, 2020

King Abbott issues "Proclamation""


"Now therefore, heed their voice. However, you shall solemnly forewarn them, and show them the behavior of the king who will reign over them."
1 Samuel 8:9

Wait, what?!?


A few points:
  1. Abbott doesn't have legal authority (not that that's ever stopped him).  Laws related to the conduct of elections require an act of the legislature to change.  Abbott's already getting sued over this subject.  He's probably going to get sued again.

  2. The underlying policy is incoherent.  If these drop off centers are bad, they should be completely eliminated.  If they aren't, there's nothing wrong with having a whole bunch of them.

  3. Dude's been being criticized for acting like a king for months, and responds by...issuing a "proclamation."
Bottom Line:  Obviously, Abbott's been doing this for months, but add another example to the list.