Tuesday, October 7, 2014

#GAMEOVER: Travis County Voter Registration data reveals Battleground Texas' failure

"Then he said, “Throw her down.” So they threw her down, and some of her blood spattered on the wall and on the horses; and he trampled her underfoot. And when he had gone in, he ate and drank. Then he said, “Go now, see to this accursed woman, and bury her, for she was a king’s daughter.” So they went to bury her, but they found no more of her than the skull and the feet and the palms of her hands. Therefore they came back and told him. And he said, “This is the word of the Lord, which He spoke by His servant Elijah the Tishbite, saying, ‘On the plot of ground at Jezreel dogs shall eat the flesh of Jezebel;"
2 Kings 9:33-36

According to the Tax Office's website, as of the close of voter registration yesterday, there are just under 650,000 registered voters in Travis County:

Compare that number to the 635,000 (and change) Travis County had in 2012:

In other words, between election 2012 and voter registration cut-off day 2014, Travis County added 14,685 registered voters.

Next, consider population growth in one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the county.

According to census bureau data, Travis County's population was 1.096 million in 2012 and 1.21 million in 2013; data for 2014 is not yet available.

Using reasonable extrapolation for 2014 (year to date), this suggests that Travis County has about 40,000 new residents in the past two years.

Against 14,685 new voters.

That means the number of registered voters increased by 2.3% while the population at large increased by (approximately) 3.6%.

Battleground Texas' strategy always required them to run up the scoreboard in Travis County.  This is one of their strongest counties in the state.  They haven't made a dent.

Bottom Line: Voter registration in Travis County has failed to keep pace with population growth, let alone the increase Battleground Texas would need to "change Texas turnout."


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