Unpacking the "War on Cities" Talking Point

"Do not rob the poor because he is poor,
Nor oppress the afflicted at the gate;"
Proverbs 22:22

Since Governor Abbott called the special session, we've noticed a recurring talking point.

From Mayor Adler:

“I admit to being a little dumbfounded when I heard what sounded to me like a call for a war against cities; a fight against individual liberties exposed at the ballot box,” Adler said. “Instead of looking at a future … the governor’s special call looks to the past.”

From Greg Casar:

"So many of the things listed here are attacks on Austin, not just in the traditional Austin-bashing sense, but on cities generally because we pose a threat in the long term,"

From the Texas Municipal League:

“The list of proposed topics for a special session represents an all-out assault on the ability of Texas voters to decide what’s best for their communities and their neighborhoods.

We've also heard similar rhetoric from local officials in (at least) Houston and Dallas.

This is worth considering in full, because the argument contains a kernel of truth wrapped in hysterical misdirection.  The short version is that these politicians (and their taxpayer funded lobbyists) have everything backwards.  While nobody denies the potential long term political implications of the special session agenda, that's a secondary concern compared to the fact that municpal governments across this state have been abusing their citizens can the Texas legislature has jurisdiction to reign them in.

Consider the following:

• Texas has the fourth highest property taxes in the country and the highest property taxes of any state that doesn't have an income tax.

• Texas has the second highest local government debt in the country.

These two are worth considering on their own, because they're obvious macroeconomic storms gathering on the medium term horizon.  Left unchecked, local government debt and the property tax system will strangle the state's economy.  Does anyone (Note: Who isn't paid to say otherwise) seriously think reigning in these practices is a bad thing?!?

The abuses continue:

• The evils of non-consensual annexation, especially in Bexar and Harris counties, speak for themselves.

• In Austin, the permitting process for residential construction is so complicated and convoluted that council created a pay to play fast lane for the big developers...which they subsequently loaded up with a new round of complicated conditions.

• Houston's and Dallas' astonishingly high pension liabilities.

• Even in allegedly conservative cities like Frisco and Plano, property tax collections have been growing faster than the ability of homeowners to pay them.

• Also in Austin, while issues like the tree ordinance and short term rentals (note: that's going to be a germane amendment on some bill during the special) get the most attention, the anti-property rights orientation of the municipal government has become so pervasive that the code department is performing SWAT-team raids.

Again...does anyone seriously think reigning in these practices is a bad thing?!?

But you want to talk politics?!?  Fine, let's talk politics.  We've been saying since 2013 that, while punks like Battleground Texas would never turn Texas blue, the unchecked growth of government at the local level is the one thing that could swing the state over the long run.

While a certain amount of boutique progressivism has crept in over the past decade, historically the backbone of the left-wing coalition has been people who collect checks from the government (ie. bureaucrats, lobbyists, and welfare recipients).  Naturally, it follows that if there are fewer people collecting checks from the government, there will be fewer constituencies for left wing policies.  There's a reason why we compared Governor Abbott's special session agenda to Scott Walker's in Wisconsin.

Put differently: This website is primarily interested in lowering our personal cost of living, but if we can simultaneously make it easier to win elections 10 years down the line, that's certainly a bonus we'll take.

Bottom Line: It's time to reign in abusive municipal governments for the sake of reigning in abusive municipal governments; if doing so also makes it easier to win elections in a decade, so much the better.

#TXLEGE: IF SUCCESSFUL, Abbott's fiscal game changers will put left on road to extinction....

"The plans of the diligent lead surely to plenty,
But those of everyone who is hasty, surely to poverty."
Proverbs 21:5

Having had a couple days to digest Governor Abbott's special session call, we keep returning to one inescapable conclusion: This is what Scott Walker did in Wisconsin...on super-duper steroids.

The proper way to interpret Governor Abbott's proposed agenda isn't just in the context of summer 2017; it's in the context of 2019, and 2021, and 2023....

Take a look at the following 11 items, and consider what they have in common:

• Administrative flexibility in teacher hiring and retention practices.

• Allowing parents of special needs children to use public school dollars for private schools.

• Limiting growth of local property taxes.
• Note: In his press conference Tuesday, Governor Abbott said "SB 2 or better."

• Caps on state and local spending.

• Preventing cities from regulating what property owners do with trees on private land.

• Preventing local governments from changing rules midway through construction projects.

• Speeding up local government permitting process.

• Restrict cities' ability to annex property.

• Preempting local restrictions on mobile devices in automobiles.
• Note: In other words, in exchange for a fairly toothless statewide bill, he's going to nuke the local revenue collection racket.

• Prohibiting public employers from collecting union dues.

• Prohibiting local governments from sending tax dollars to abortion providers.

What do each of these 11 items have in common?!?  They significantly weaken the various and sundry bureaucracies that send taxpayer funded lobbyists to the Capitol.  And, as these bureaucracies are weakened, their ability to buy votes and plague future legislative sessions similarly declines.

Think about it this way: It'll be a lot easier to eliminate property taxes in 2019 or 2021 if the cities and counties have been forced to live under spending caps for 2 or 4 years.  Likewise, on the education side, "administrative flexibility" is a marvelous euphemism for taking a bite out of the socialized education industrial complex...which means it'll be a lot easier to pass a significant education reform measure in 2 or 4 years.  Finally, if these fiscal restraints come to pass, we doubt the cities will retain the basic bandwidth to fight constitutional carry in future sessions.

And that's before we consider the political impact of the union dues bill, which people don't fully comprehend.  If the union dues bill passes then over the next decade Harris County will turn solidly red, Dallas County will turn purple, and even Travis County will become a significantly lighter shade of blue.  Furthermore, given everything else on the special session agenda, we don't think Joe Straus has enough political capital left to kill this a third time.

As noted above, there's a political model: It's called Wisconsin.  There, by confronting and defunding the institutional left, Scott Walker turned a solidly blue state into a solidly (if narrowly) red state over the course of four election cycles (ie. it didn't happen overnight).  And a similar phenomenon, only supercharged, will take place in Texas if we're smart enough to take the first step during this special session.

Now, obviously, these items need to pass.  Equally obvious, given that we're talking about the Texas legislature, we expect House leadership to commit copious amounts of villany attempting to derail them.  But our gut says that House leadership's top priority will be to kill the bathroom bill, and that in order to accomplish that objective they're going to have to let a boatload of this fiscal stuff through.

And the fiscal stuff is game changing.

Bottom Line: Play the long game people....

#TXLEGE: A "Trust but Verify" #SpecialSession

"Therefore by their fruits you will know them."
Matthew 7:20

We're still in the process of digesting Governor Abbott's special session call, but so far two phrases come to mind: "Better late than never" and "Trust, but verify."

However we got here, there's a lot to like in this agenda.  No, everyone's pet issue was not included in the call.  But there are several items that, if successful, would be game changers.

Consider two items: local spending caps and ending mandatory union dues.  If successful, they would permanently alter the relationship between productive citizens and a predatory "public sector."    To understand the long term impact of such a transformation, look at Wisconsin.

Put differently, we think the unhinged hysteria with which our local #atxcouncil reacted speaks for itself.

Now, obviously, these items need to pass.  Equally obvious, given that we're discussing the Texas Legislature, the status quo crowd will engage in chicanery and villainy to attempt to derail them.  But Governor Abbott just took a pretty big risk, which means he's got an investment to protect.

And for Joe Straus to kill all 19 of these items strikes this website as a tall order.

Bottom Line: We're either going to come out of this special session with a bunch of policy victories or a bunch of campaign issues; while the former is vastly preferable to the latter, either one is a win.

Travis County Courthouse: More Subsidies than Scott Walker's Basketball Arena

"There is desirable treasure,
And oil in the dwelling of the wise,
But a foolish man squanders it."
Proverbs 21:20

We were reading an article about the $250 million in public subsides that Presidential candidate Scott Walker has committed to building a new arena for the Milwaukee Bucks when we realized something.

The $250 million that Scott Walker has committed to that project is still less money than the $287 million (plus interest) Travis County is asking voters to approve for the new courthouse.

And at least Milwaukee's getting an arena out of the deal; while we certainly don't approve of those types of public subsidies, at least they're building something a decent percentage of the population will use.

By contrast, no one's going to use this courthouse except a small cadre of rich downtown lawyers.

Bottom Line: For Travis County to be spending more money on this courthouse than AN ENTIRE STATE is spending on a slightly more useful boondoggle illustrates the absurdity of this proposal.

RNC 2012: Governor Scott Walker

The man who revealed the shift that has taken place in the electorate tells how he did it:


More Scott Walker here.

Scott Walker's Keynote address at AFP's Defending the Dream Summit

Scott Walker is emerging as the most effective elected office holder in America:


Highlights:

• Moderation and Frugality in our government lead to freedom and prosperity for our people.
• Wisconsin property taxes are down for the first time in twelve years.
• 94% of Wisconsin employers feel the state is moving in the right direction; compared to 10% the year before Walker took office.
• The voters expect us to act on the things we campaign on.
• 60% of Wisconsin's budget is aid to local governments; the purpose of the Budget Repair law was to give local governments more tools to fix their own problems.
• It's not about spending more money, it's about spending the money we have more wisely
• Merit pay for Teachers proves conservatives care more about school children than the teachers unions who protect corrupt bureaucrats.

Check out the whole thing.

Why the RealClearPolitics Average Is Not Reliable

For those of you unaware, Real Clear Politics is a website that tracks polling data and aggregates news.  It's claim to fame is a feature, known as the RCP Average, that taken the mean of all public pollingf over the past 2-3 weeks.  Unfortunately, the RCP average is very easy for corrupt polling outlets to manipulate.

As Rush has pointed out for years, a lot of polling is designed to shape public opinion, not reflect it.  This longstanding problem has gotten much worse in the 2012 cycle.  As long as 1-2 crap polls come out per month, it throws the RCP average off.

For example, the current RCP average has Obama up by 2.7.  That average, however, includes this garbage poll from NBC News/Wall St. Journal and this craptacular specimen from Pew; Breitbart News demolishes the first poll here and the second one here.  Once those two polls are removed, Obama's lead plummets to 1.2%.

This means that, out of the past 9 public polls, 2 crap polls are responsible for 55% of Obama's lead in the RCP Average; this phenomenon has been going on for years.

So, what should you do?!?

Personally, I stick with Rasmussen.  They were the most accurate pollster in 2004, 2006, 2008, and (most importantly) 2010.  Scott Rasmussen was the first pollster to recognize how the Tea Party has altered the American Electorate for the foreseeable future.  Wisconsin is the first place we've seen these results.  As Scott Rasmussen explained at RightOnline, we should expect similar results as long as the interrelated issues of unemployment and debt drive the conversation.

This is not a personal attack on RCP.  RCP isn't corrupt.  RCP's methodology, however, leaves them vulnerable to the corruption of others.

Ted Cruz Debrief Pt. 1: Appropriations Committee

Yesterday, I interviewed Texas U.S. Senate Candidate Ted Cruz.  In going back through the interview, I'm struck by the first thing he said.  Ted Cruz wants to serve on the Appropriations committee.

This is an unexpected and pleasant surprise.

Delivering spending reductions at any level of government, but especially the Federal, is tricky.  Reducing Spending requires mastering complex budget processes that are deliberately designed to bore normal people.  The respective House and Senate Appropriations committees are where individual members exercise maximum leverage over the budget.

For example, the reason Gov. Scott Walker's budget repair law has succeeded so spectacularly in Wisconsin is because Gov. Walker mastered the boring details of process.  When the unions offered to give Scott Walker some financial concessions in exchange for maintaining their corrupt bargaining protections, Walker wisely said no.  Scott Walker understood that dismantling the unions corrupt bargaining protections was a more important reform than temporary financial concessions.

When Ted Cruz says, "most people want to serve on Approps to spend money...and I'd like to serve on Appropriations to lead the fight to dramatically reduce the size, power, and spending of the Federal Government and to stop appropriating money beyond our means" that's huge.  It indicates that Ted Cruz has already given thought to the boring process details that are key to long-term spending reductions. Dismantling Federal Spending will require a pain in the ass Senator (or two) (or three) on the Appropriations committee; Ted Cruz is obviously prepared to be that pain in the ass.

One factor that has consistently impressed me about Ted Cruz is his knowledge of boring process in the U.S. Senate.  Ted Cruz understands that Congress needs to flex it's atrophied Constitutional muscles, and he understands how to do so effectively.  The Appropriations committee is just one example of this fact.

As Texans consider which U.S. Senate Candidate will deliver on their promises to dismantle Federal intrusion into Texas, Ted Cruz has already figured out many of the boring process details.

RightOnline 2012: The Biggest Takeaway

I attended the RightOnline 2012 Conference this past weekend.  It was awesome.  We're winning and we just need to keep going.

I sat down to write a review of the conference, but there were 25 separate items I wanted to discuss.  A detailed review isn't feasible, especially with Biblical Prophecies coming true in today's headlines.  Instead, I wanted to share a strategic observation on the broad trends we're facing.

The big takeaway is that we're winning.  The most important action we can take is to continue doing exactly what we're doing.  This process is a long-haul, but as long as we maintain consistent, persistent, pressure, we'll win.

In terms of substance, Scott Rasmussen was the most important person I had a chance to speak with.  His point was simple: the public outrage is real, it began with TARP and was solidified by Obamacare, and it has transformed the electorate.  Even when they don't follow politics closely, the public instinctively understands the size of the problem, and they're open to big solutions.  The Wisconsin recall results confirmed something I've suspected for awhile.  Scott Rasmussen's analysis, in both public remarks and our personal conversations,  was further proof.  Update:  Rasmussen Speech Here

One modest caveat is that, in the realm of public opinion, results are more important than theory.  As Scott Rasmussen said "people don't care about limited government, they care about the type of society limited government will create."  Although the public in Wisconsin supported Scott Walker in the Abstract, it wasn't until their property taxes went down that Scott Walker won the election.

Thank you to Eliza Vielma, the new media person at AFP-Texas, who is the main reason I was able to go.  Thank you also to Peggy Venable, AFP-Texas State Director, for much the same reason.  Thank you to AFP National, and Stephanie Fontenot in particular, for the work you did to pull this off.  Thank you also to Cindy Malette, formerly of AFP-Texas, for pestering me to blog for two years before the message sunk in.  Finally, of course, thank you to God, because without him, the rest of this is irrelevant.

Finally, I want to close by mentioning Andrew Breitbart.  For obvious reasons, Andrew was a major topic of conversation this weekend.  Andrew's #1 objective in this world was to empower the rest of us to take on Hollywood and the corrupt media.  Just today, Chris Cilizza of Washington Post came up with this whiny crybaby piece, that Rush brilliantly destroyed.  That Cilizza piece proves how much trouble the left is in.  The best way to honor Andrew Breitbart is to continue doing exactly what we're doing.  We're winning, and as long as we stay in the fight, we're gonna kick their ass.

Update: Tom Tillison has more.

The American Electorate has Changed; Scott Walker is Proof!!!

The American Electorate has changed over the past five years.  The 2010 Tea Party Landslide was the first revelation of this fact.  Gov. Scott Walker's easy win Tuesday proves the depth of this shift.

The American People are indignant that the people who created this mess are asking for more power to continue the scam.  The American people understand that we've been sold a bill of goods over the past 100 years and that the game can no longer continue.  Prior to 1913, Federal Spending never exceeded 5% of GDP (except for the middle of the Civil War) and we need to return to those levels.  The individual bogeymen vary, from Federal housing policy, to The Federal Reserve, to Public Sector Unions, but their shared root cause is big government aggrandizing and enriching itself at the expense of decent people.  The American people understand the cause of this mess.

The American people have never been fans of gauzy, go-along to get-along centrism.  The Perot movement, which emerged in 1992, was a reaction to the Bush 41 administration's aggrandizement of Washington D.C. at the expense of Americans.  As Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen detail in their book Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking our Two-Party System:

Perot-era populism -- sparked by President George H.W. Bush's broken promise of 'no-new taxes' -- has never really left our politics....The resurgence of populism we are experiencing today is a continuation of the populist uprising of 1992 in the same way that World War II was a continuation of World War I, with a period in between that appeared quieter than it really was.  Also, just like the World Wars, the second act of the Perot-era is likely to provoke far more turbulence and far bigger changes on the political battlefields of 21st-century America. (47)

TARP followed by Obamacare forced decent people to stop complaining and become active.  Now that we're active, it's becoming increasingly easier to draw the widest possible contrast between decent people and the Left.

Madison is the New Democratic Core, which means that the Democrats are down to hippies and Union Thugs.  As Michael Barone has documented, decent people have grown to despise Democrat client groups. This shift is why historical modeling is inadequate to understand what's coming in November.  The lies of the past 100 years have been exposed, and the American people are awake.  This election isn't just about replacing Barack Obama, it isn't even just about repealing the excesses of the past decade; this election is about dismantling the lies of the past 100 years and restoring who we really are.

Think big people.  As Rush has explained for years, "Conservatism Wins, Every Time It's Tried."  Wisconsin is proof.

America is Wisconsin; not Greece

Amid the celebration of Governor Scott Walker's decisive victory last night, one lesson stands out clearly: America is still America, we haven't become Greece.

Since Barack Obama was elected, and since the number of takers has inched ever closer to the number of makers, existential questions have been asked.  Can the American people restore the Constitutional Republic of our foundation, or will we succumb to what Mark Steyn calls extremely seductive incremental decline?!?  Last night, the voters of Wisconsin gave their answer.

In 2010, Governor Scott Walker campaigned on Restoring Economic Growth, Balancing the Budget, and Not Raising Taxes.  Collective Bargaining Reform is a natural component of that agenda.  Collective Bargaining Reform discredited the corrupt shibboleths upon which the left is built, thus they threw every thuggish tactic in their arsenal at Governor Walker.  The failed.  Wisconsinites affirmed budgetary reforms and thumbed their noses at the Unions.

Contrast last night is Wisconsin with the ongoing chaos in Greece.  Where Wisconsinites chose prudent budgetary reforms, Greeks threw a violent hissy fit.  Where Wisconsinites re-affirmed a courageous politician, Greeks elected Nazi's.  Wisconsin has a future, Greece does not.

Last night, Wisconsin voters sent a message to the world.  Is America done?!?  Not yet, NOT BY A LONG SHOT....